LAST EDITED ON Feb-01-06 AT 01:44PM (MST)[p]LAST EDITED ON Feb-01-06 AT 01:43 PM (MST)
I read over your evaluation of how to calculate the odds of drawing a tag. One thing, do you account for there being more than one tag available?
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From you website:
"The Reserved Permit draw is a bit more interesting. Each applicant is given an entry into the draw for each bonus point that applicant has, plus an additional entry for the species. Each entry is then assigned to a random drawing number. The permits are then awarded to the applicants with the lowest drawing numbers. For example, an applicant has 9 bonus points. They receive 10 random numbers. Let's also assume that there are 20 other applicants that have a total of 90 bonus points (including the one for species) between them. So the total number of random numbers is 100. This applicant has 10 of those numbers, so the odds of drawing a reserved permit is 10 in 100, or 10%. The odds for these Reserved Permits is calculated by dividing the number of bonus points plus one that an applicant has by the sum of the number of bonus points plus one multiplied by the number of applicants."
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Shouldn't the last step be to divide by the number of available tags? What if, in your example, there are 10 tags? Would the odds of drawing a tag be 100%, since there are only ten applicants, regardless of bonus points?