LAST EDITED ON Jul-13-11 AT 05:40PM (MST)[p]Yeah, he would be crazy!
I talked to someone the other day about this. For math purposes i will try and keep it simple. If you don't want to follow my math, just read the first and last 2 paragraphs
First realize that despite good genes and good groceries, not all 8 year old bulls on the SJ will be 400". Having all the genes and alleles in the right place doesn't happen all the time, lets say it happens 5% of the time. Given that,
Lets say out of the 500 bulls on the SJ, there are 100 bulls on the SJ that are 6 years old or older and of that same group of 100 there are 20 that are 8 years or older.
Lets say out of that same group of 100, that 5% of those bulls (6-8) year old bulls have all the genes line up just right to produce 400" bulls. Now assume that some of them live on the unit where the right amount of rain didn't fall or the nutrition is slightly lacking for what ever reason conditions are not the same across the entire unit (that would make sense right?). Now lets say that only 2.5% of those bulls got what they need to grow big. So that means that out of that 100 bull group, 2-3 bulls are going to get to that 390+ class. I think this happens every year, this year there will still be 2-4 bulls killed that big, 6-8 or more that will break 380+ and so on. Does that all make sense? Just because there have not been 8 bulls killed over 390 the last 2 years and there has only been 3-4 doesn't have anything to do with quality slipping or this one's my favorite 'killing all the good genes'. Its simply a numbers game and there ARE NOT as many bulls in 2011 as there were in 2005 or 06 even 07.
What has happened on the SJ starting around 2005 is the UDWR increased the no. of bulls they killed. This because the age class in bulls harvested was increasing above set objective. They also increased the no. of cows they killed--again because the population level was passed the targeted objective. This coming off the drought years where production (that's the no. of calves being produced by the cows) also dropped. Which has all led to a few less maybe even 100 or more fewer bulls.
Its really all just a numbers game, the more bulls the more likely you are to increase the no. of 'quality' high scoring bulls in a given unit/area. The delimma is you can't increase your population to do that so you kill more cows which over time decreases the no. of bulls in the population--make sense?
So here we sit in 2011 and everyone is complaining about the quality--and not just on the SJ. Well I guess if you don't like your chances of 3-5% of killing a 400 bull turn it back in or a 10% chance of killing a 380+ bull or a 20% chance of killing a 360+ bull, yeah, turn it back in. Your chances may never increase again in your lifetime.
Its funny how we have progressed over the years, 15 years ago when we first started a 350+ bull was a great bull, now if you don't kill a 380+ bull on the SJ you are looked down upon and are viewed as some sucky hunter (or guide) because you just couldn't do it. What a sad state (literally and figuratively) we have become that its about the score and not 'the hunt'.
Here's my question to ask of your buddy, If you don't kill a 380+ bull will you feel like a failure of a hunter? Boy if guys feel like that, you should have saved all your money and gone and hunted a high fence ranch. Its hunting folks, enjoy it, make the most of it but DON'T make it all about the score.
Todd Black
Visit our YouTube page
http://www.youtube.com/user/bulls4bto?feature=mhum
