elk rut predictions

T

TINEBROTHER

Guest
it has been a weird year... when do you guys think the rut will start this year
 
I bet during the rifle? I don't know though. I bet it will be a hard bow hunt!
 
>I bet during the rifle? I
>don't know though. I bet
>it will be a hard
>bow hunt!


I couldn't agree more. I think this years bow hunt will be bitter sweet for a lot of people. I believe the quality of Bulls will be amazing but actually sticking one will be very difficult without the Rut......with that said, mother nature can be as moody as a pregnant wife with no snacks, so you never know!!
 
LAST EDITED ON Aug-04-11 AT 06:17AM (MST)[p]I bet the rut will be close to years in the past. I bet bow, rifle, and muzzy hunters all get a piece. I heard someone say the Farmers Almanac predicted snow in Sept. ?
 
WE totally missed summer it seems. Been raining so much on and off. Had a crazy winter. I bet we get an early winter and a crazy fall. Here in the next few weeks temps are going to drop and the weather will get all mixed up. First week in sept the elk will start feeling it and the rut will be in full swing.......Or maybe im just hoping for that since i got a stick and string tag in hand.
 
I'm with you sniper. I dont know why the rut would be later, i guess these guys think summer's still going to show up? Anyways as the year goes on it isnt getting any hotter on the mountains i'm going to be hunting on. I think they'll rut the first week of september as always and some big archery bulls will get smoked. But then again I'm with you and have a tag in my pocket, so I'm hoping.
 
Plus 2 with sniper. In the higher country where it is cooler. I have seen a couple of bulls hard horned already. Tons of feed and lots of water. I think summer is gone. Just because we had a late winter this year doesn't mean its isn't going to come again like usual.
Maybe the rut will be slower in the desert areas,where it is still hotter then hell ! I should know i live there. ;) I left ( hell ) last weekend it was 106 , when I got on the mountain it was 50 . That was still during day light hours. So...my guess is the late winter hasn't changed anything ??
 
When applying for my NM elk hunt I put a lot of thought into the rut calendar. My guess is it will happen at the end of the bow/ML season and hopefully care into the first rifle season. The past few years I've noticed the weather getting colder later. Maybe global warming will be the death of us, or maybe I'm saying that because I have a bull elk, first rifle tag!
 
Is the rut really that weather related or is it the daytime evidence of the rut which is either surpressed or accelerated by weather?
I know that on those hot days when the bulls are lazy and unresponsive that they fire it up at night.... all night!
Zeke
 
I bet that calves will be born during the same 3 week period next year as they have been for the last 200 years...so I am betting that means that rut/breeding will occur abut the same time this year as the prior 200 years, give or take a few days.
 
Since it was a long and late winter, late spring and summer showed up later than normal. I am going with a late fall and late rut. Sorry archery guys, this is the year to have the muzzy tag IMHO. But, my guess is as good as yours...
 
LAST EDITED ON Aug-04-11 AT 07:11PM (MST)[p]Normally the deer and elk rut doesn't vary much in any given year because it's basically based on the photoperiod. The only thing that might change it by a few days based on scientific studies is excessively cloudy weather over the year and the full moon phase closest to the time the rut normally gets going. That's why I would agree 100% with the above statement that you will see newborns every year within a fairly small window that probably won't vary more than about two weeks at most in any given year at the same latitude. I think the thing that throws people off is excessively hot weather and the thought that they aren't seeing rutting activity during the daylight hours. That may be true, but I can just about guarantee that after legal shooting hours those bucks and bulls turn it up and are rutting like crazy until daylight.
 
+1 Topgun. Last year was super hot during the bow and rifle hunts and the elk were rutting hard. However, when it got hot during the daytime they went into the thick dark stuff to do their thing. At night they were standing in the middle of the daggon road with no trees for hundreds of yards. The rut will be the same time period as it has been in the past give or take a little. Once they do start rutting hard all this water we have will help. Big ruttin bulls like to drink lots of water!!
 
LAST EDITED ON Aug-04-11 AT 09:38PM (MST)[p]Most cows will be bred between Sept. 25 and Oct. 9th. Weather, temp, moon, and such won't change when those cows come in however the weather, temp, and moon, may have alot to do with how vocal they'll be. If it's hot as hell all day and all night rutting bulls will head for water and they will do it all day and all night. They might not eat a lot during the rut but they will never tolerate dehydration, they have got to have water more often during the rut than any other time of year. Remember, they never stop peeing, blowing snot and they'll stay in a constant lather. The whole process requires water for the bulls.

bowhunt-you got it pegged, it's not brain science. The calfs are born the last two weeks of May every year on the Fish Lake, Monroe, Beaver, Pahvant and the Boulder, I bit it's nearly identical from Logan to Kanab.

DC
 
Its pretty much accepted that when you get far enough south the whitetail rut is alittle later and more sporadic. Do the elk of New mexico and arizona rut later than the northern elk?
 
LAST EDITED ON Aug-05-11 AT 11:25AM (MST)[p]Thunderhead2---Not only is the deer rut a little later as you go south; it's a lot later. As you go south to the Equator the rut in south Texas for whitetails is mid to late December. The mule deer and Coues rut in New Mexico from what I understand doesn't get going until about Janary, while up in the northern half of Wyoming where I hunt it's the latter half of November into early December. Also, down in Mexico the whitetail rut isn't until Jamuary so that fawns are dropped later and don't have as much stress from the heat down there. Where we lose deer in the northern states due to winter weather, the further south you go the more losses you have from the hot, dry weather of the year.
 
I didn't know the Equator was in south Texas! Huh? LOL
Just hackin' on ya TG.
Zeke
 
Zeke---You're a real pip! Actually, I think with the heat down through Texas over through Arizona right now that the Equator is somewhere near Austin, LOL!!!
 
LAST EDITED ON Aug-06-11 AT 10:12PM (MST)[p]Last year I called in bulls on Sept. 3rd. Two 6 points hanging together, no shot. The next morning I shot one of those bulls, with the other one 5yards away. They were responsive to cow calls. I was on a ridge, and after I smoked the bull I walked over the ridge to soak it in, and there were 3 more 6 points hanging together in the meadow below. We saw them hanging together each day for the next 3 days. On the 3rd day we watched one of the bigger bulls push the smallest bull around a bit. The next day was the first time we saw a bull on his own with cows. I believe the bulls feel it earlier, but the real rut doesn't get going until they start smelling the cows come in heat.

HAZMAT, I may not sleep tonight because of your frost on the tent comment. I leave in the morning to go scout for 3 days at 9400'. Hope we see frost on the tent!
 
I think the rut will be going all 3 seasons here in Utah, but I think the moon will play havoc on the rutting seen, during the day for the archery hunters as well as rifle hunters. My opion is most of the rutting during the end of archery season, and the start of rifle season will be during the over night hours. But who knows for sure, a cold front or overcast sky's could change everything. Good luck to everyone who has a tag.
 
Some interesting thoughts. I have the NM muzzle load tag for one of the northern units and I was afraid we would not here any bugling with the ML season rotating into a later start this year, on October 8. Hopefully, we will here a few bulls bugling and there will still be some rut activity going on.............I hope!

WP


"My only regret in life is setting my goals too low"
 
Mother nature has it pretty much figured out. Calves get dropped at the optimum time to ensure survival every year. Subtract the gestation period and that is when the cows will be in heat. Happens like clock work every year. The only thing weather has to do with it is the effort the bulls put in running around before hand looking for the early cows.
 
Woke up to frost on the trailer on the manti I think we are in for an erly pre rut it's going to get all fired up this year
 
I was up on the mountain this weekend and ran into a nice hurd of elk. There were a couple of bulls with them and I had to listen twice and all be darned if they wernt both making some noies already. Little bugles and chuckles. It was pretty exciting seeings that I have a big bull tag in my pocket.


Jeff
 

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