LAST EDITED ON Mar-31-07 AT 04:41PM (MST)[p]Well you asked for my 2 cents but I think I'm going to post at least a buck fifty.
Daxter, as you probably already know there has been about this many unsold SE tags in March the last couple years. They will eventually sell out just like they have every year. There are many hunters in the SE region that have given up on hunting mule deer. A few have switched to elk but most don't hunt anymore. By the way, those old pictures never get old.
IMO they should stop selling the left over SE tags. I would agree that the main reason these tags aren't selling out as fast is a result of the poorer deer hunting than the past. I bet the tags would sell out faster if the F&G didn't do away with the late muzzleloader tag in the Bear River Range. Many of the nonresidents that bought the SE tag a few years ago were trying to draw that late muzzleloader hunt.
The buck/doe ratio is much lower than it was in the past but it isn't all the F&G?s fault like many say it is. The hunting pressure hasn't changed much in the SE tag area (units 75, 76, 77, & 78) for the last 20 years. The F&G has proposed reducing the hunting pressure in this area but they haven't had much support from hunters. Many of the hunters of the SE region (units 66A, 70, 71, 72, 73, 73A, 74, 75, 76, 77 & 78) expect a liberal season and high buck/doe ratios. You can't have your cake and eat it too. (yes, I know units 68 & 68A are in the SE region but it I'm going to exclude them because they are geographically different and N or W of all of the other units in the SE region)
The buck/doe ratios were much higher in the SE tag area in the past because the deer herd was much larger. The herd size fluctuates every year but I think it would be safe to say that the current deer population in SE Idaho is less than half of what it was in the 50?s, 60?s, 70?s and 80?s. There are a number of reasons why there are less deer in SE Idaho than there was in the past. IMO the biggest factor is habitat. There has been loss of some winter range in SE Idaho but IMO the quality of the habitat isn't as good as it was in the past. I think the many drought years SE Idaho has experienced over the last 30 years significantly decreased the habitat quality.
Predators certainly play a role in the equation too. There are more coyotes than there were in the past. The F&G has paid for coyote trapping and aerial shooting of coyotes in some areas. Based on the information the F&G have collected in the areas the coyote populations were reduced, the coyote population control hasn't significantly helped the mule deer. However, I have no doubt that coyotes do adversely affect deer populations, especially survival of fawns.
Lions do take their share of the deer as well. There really isn't any solid data to back it up but I believe there are more mountain lions in the SE region than there were in the past. Killing off more lions could certainly artificially increase the size of the deer herds in the SE region but killing off the lions wouldn't magically fix SE Idaho deer herd. The F&G already has a very liberal season for lions in the SE region. Over the last 10 years there have been about 30-90 lions killed by hunters in the SE region every year. Many of the lions being killed the last few years are 3.5 years old or younger. I would have a hard time believing more than 500 lions live in the SE region on an average year. A conservative estimate of only 200 lions in the SE and each lion only killing 10 deer a year. This would result in 2000 deer being killed by lions in the SE region every year. Keep in mind this is a very conservative estimate. There isn't really any solid data to show how many deer lions kill in SE Idaho every year but it is probably much higher than 2000 deer per year. Lion kills would also significantly fluctuate every year.
Road kill is another factor that is hurting the deer population in SE Idaho. From 2000-2006 there were about 1150 confirmed road killed deer and elk in the SE region. A large majority of these road kills are deer. I don't have all of the data on the road kill numbers but there probably are 100-200 confirmed road killed deer in the SE region every year. The number of road killed deer every year significantly fluctuates just like the deer population does. These road kill numbers don't include all of the unconfirmed road kill deer in SE region. I think 300 road killed deer per year in the SE region would be a very conservative estimate. It wouldn't surprise me if vehicles are responsible for 500+ deer deaths in the SE region some years.
Elk have also displaced deer in some areas. It is hard to say how much of an impact the larger population of elk has had on deer but I do believe it is significant. The F&G has addressed this by increasing the elk hunting pressure in all areas of the SE region. This increased hunting pressure on elk in the SE region started about 7 or 8 years ago and has been even more intense the last couple years.
Doe harvest is another controversial topic for the SE region. There has been very limited doe harvest in the SE region over the past 7 or 8 years. Since there has been minimal doe harvest in the SE region, hunters are not the reason the deer herd is smaller than it was in the past. In the SW, Magic Valley and Upper Snake Regions there has been more liberal doe harvest. These other regions have healthier deer herds than the SE region. Is lack of doe harvest a problem in the SE region? IMO more doe harvest in the SE region would help the deer herd but that is just my opinion.
Technology combined with a higher percentage of trophy hunters are also a factor resulting in fewer mature bucks in the SE region. Easier access from 4 wheelers certainly doesn't help. Many hunters wouldn't be killing small bucks far from a road if they couldn't use their 4-wheeler to access that spot or pack the deer out. The increased number of hunters with quality optics is also a factor resulting in less mature bucks in the SE region.
Here are some interesting numbers to consider. Keep in mind these numbers are not exact but I don't think they are too far from the true numbers. These numbers will also significantly fluctuate from year to year just like the deer heard does. I can back up my sources if anyone wants to question them. They are based on data from 2000 to 2005. The 2006 data isn't public yet but the preliminary 2006 data looks similar to the 2005 data.
In units 66A, 70, 71, 72, 73, 73A, 74, 75, 76, 77 & 78 there have been about 2600-4900 bucks killed per year by hunters. Average number of bucks killed per year by hunters has been about 3,250. It varies from year to year but I would estimate that most years close to half of these bucks are 1.5 year old deer. Around 1/3 of the bucks killed every year have at least 4 points on one side and about 7% have at least 5 points on one side. There have been 13,000 to 19,000 deer hunters per year in the SE region during this same time span. On average there are 15,000 deer hunters in the SE region each year and about 25% of them take home a deer. Lions and vehicles are probably killing close to as many deer (if not more deer) than hunters kill in the SE region each year. However, hunters are selectively killing the bucks. If hunters were restricted, there would be more mature bucks in the SE region.
Here?s some information about the SE tag units (75, 76, 77 & 78). There have been about 5,000 to 8,000 deer hunters per year in the SE tag units from 2000-2005. The F&G sales 1,115 nonresident tags for the SE tag units every year. On average there are about 6,300 deer hunters in the SE tag units each year during this time span. It varies each year but the last couple years about 20% of the hunters in the SE tag units are nonresidents. There have been about 1,300-2,200 bucks killed per year by hunters. Average number of bucks killed per year by hunters has been about 1,500. Around 27% of the bucks killed every year have at least 4 points on one side and about 5% have at least 5 points on one side. About 25% of hunters take home a deer in the SE tag units every year.
The F&G is working on improving the mule deer situation in Southern Idaho with the MDI (Mule Deer Initiative) but it is something that will take time. In 2008 I'm expecting some big changes to the Idaho mule deer hunting season. It probably won't happen but there is talk about state wide controlled hunts for mule deer in 2008. This would certainly correct the low buck/doe ratios but all of the opportunity guys are going to be whining. I know that Tony Boudreau (F&G guy in charge of the MDI) checks out this forum. It would be great if he could post current information throughout this next year for us avid Southern Idaho deer hunters. He might also be able to critique some of my numbers.
Anyway, that is my opinion. I'm sure that others won't agree with everything I wrote.
We could revisit the 4-point rule in units 70 and 73, if you want another subject to talk about while we are all waiting for hunting season to start. I think it would make an interesting thread to talk about sometime in the next few months. From what I have seen, the predictions that I posted when the rule was first implemented have come true. I probably have a biased opinion though. The 4 point rule is going to stay in effect for 2007 but I would put money on it being gone in 2008.
