Wasatch Early Hunt.
- Thread starter Elknuts
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Zeke
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If you apply, then you're looking to draw but the odds say you will not draw quite yet.
After the draw last year, you were in the pool with 130 applicants remaining and 54 applicants ahead of you. That means that IF nobody else jumps in front of you that you are a couple years away from being guaranteed a tag.
Good luck!
Zeke
After the draw last year, you were in the pool with 130 applicants remaining and 54 applicants ahead of you. That means that IF nobody else jumps in front of you that you are a couple years away from being guaranteed a tag.
Good luck!
Zeke
Thanks Zeke for your info. I guess I don't understand how it works very well. So I still have a question though? Do I have a better chance with my 14 points now, Than a guy with 10 or twelve or whatever? How does that all work? I need a hunt drawing for dummies book I guess.
rmanwill
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What Zeke is saying is that if nobody jumps in with more points - the way it ended last year the draw for bonus point tags would drop into your point pool.
There was 188 tags given last year and 94 of them ent to the bonus point holders. There was 1 with 19 points, 2 with 18, 3 with 17, 10 with 16, 33 with 15 and 103 with 14 points.
68 of the people with 14 points would have drawn in the bonus draw. That means that 68 people were let with 14 points that did not draw.
This year if they give the same 94 tags in the bonus point pool it would give them to all the 14 point holders and 16 of the 13 point holders from last year (134 applicants). So yes it would be in your point pool (15-18% chance).
However, there is some of the 14 and 13 points holders from last year that would have draw in the random draw also. There is always people that did not put in the year prior that have more points and put in the following year knowing they are pretty close to a given to draw. For instant the people with 19 points down to 15 points jumped in last year (49 applicants).
Points are nice and can determine approcimately when you have a better chance, but nothing is for sure. People cannot hunt one year and have the points to do so and other people put in for one unit and then the next put in for another unit. Others just buy points and put in when they can hunt or know they should draw.
Hope this helps. Yes you could have a chance in both the bonus draw and the random drew. Best of luck.
There was 188 tags given last year and 94 of them ent to the bonus point holders. There was 1 with 19 points, 2 with 18, 3 with 17, 10 with 16, 33 with 15 and 103 with 14 points.
68 of the people with 14 points would have drawn in the bonus draw. That means that 68 people were let with 14 points that did not draw.
This year if they give the same 94 tags in the bonus point pool it would give them to all the 14 point holders and 16 of the 13 point holders from last year (134 applicants). So yes it would be in your point pool (15-18% chance).
However, there is some of the 14 and 13 points holders from last year that would have draw in the random draw also. There is always people that did not put in the year prior that have more points and put in the following year knowing they are pretty close to a given to draw. For instant the people with 19 points down to 15 points jumped in last year (49 applicants).
Points are nice and can determine approcimately when you have a better chance, but nothing is for sure. People cannot hunt one year and have the points to do so and other people put in for one unit and then the next put in for another unit. Others just buy points and put in when they can hunt or know they should draw.
Hope this helps. Yes you could have a chance in both the bonus draw and the random drew. Best of luck.
Cam@strawberry
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If you have 14 pts putting in for your fifteenth, you are likely to draw given past history. If you have 13 points putting in for 14 you are still probably on the outside looking in
https://www.facebook.com/strawberrybayoutfitters
https://www.facebook.com/strawberrybayoutfitters
Putting in for 15th point? What does that mean? You don't get a point until after the draw, so you are going into it with 14 points and base your odds from last year when you had 13 points.
http://wildlife.utah.gov/hunting/biggame/pdf/2014/14_elk.pdf
Rmanwill explained it above. You most likely will not draw this year and it looks like you are 2-3 years away from being guaranteed a tag.
http://wildlife.utah.gov/hunting/biggame/pdf/2014/14_elk.pdf
Rmanwill explained it above. You most likely will not draw this year and it looks like you are 2-3 years away from being guaranteed a tag.
Zeke
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Here's the bottom line Elknuts (according to my calculations)
You have a couple more years before you'd be guaranteed a tag BUT IT CAN HAPPEN ANY TIME since it looks like several guys get lucky in the random pool (94 to be exact).
Stay the course and you'll have a tag really soon.
By the way, you would have a slightly better chance of drawing a random tag than someone in a lower points pool but because of the randomly assigned "lowest number used" system it's impossible to calculate and so slight that its almost irreverent.
I hope this helps a little.
Zeke
You have a couple more years before you'd be guaranteed a tag BUT IT CAN HAPPEN ANY TIME since it looks like several guys get lucky in the random pool (94 to be exact).
Stay the course and you'll have a tag really soon.
By the way, you would have a slightly better chance of drawing a random tag than someone in a lower points pool but because of the randomly assigned "lowest number used" system it's impossible to calculate and so slight that its almost irreverent.
I hope this helps a little.
Zeke
goofyelk
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Just a heads up for those using 14+ points on the Wasatch,
I've been running on this unit for almost 40 years now...
Watched the huge rise in elk, and great hunting it has been..
But I'm here to say, this last few years of elk slaughter
on the Wasatch has taken a significate toll.
I've spent 20 days on the south half of the Wasatch this winter.
And elk numbers look more like they did 25 years ago now.
Steady decine now for 5 years now, This last year REALLY hurt!
The elk numbers are just NOT there......The big herds are gone.
YES there are a few bulls left, But I certainly wouldn't spend many points there.
I've been running on this unit for almost 40 years now...
Watched the huge rise in elk, and great hunting it has been..
But I'm here to say, this last few years of elk slaughter
on the Wasatch has taken a significate toll.
I've spent 20 days on the south half of the Wasatch this winter.
And elk numbers look more like they did 25 years ago now.
Steady decine now for 5 years now, This last year REALLY hurt!
The elk numbers are just NOT there......The big herds are gone.
YES there are a few bulls left, But I certainly wouldn't spend many points there.
Cam@strawberry
Very Active Member
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As I understand, and that's no guarantee that it's correct. You will be entering the draw with 14 previous entries plus the one from this year. Meaning you have 15 chances at a permit. You don't go backwards when counting cause a person can't have 0 chances, so when you put in for the first time you are issued a 'point' or number.
That's just how it's been explained to me so if you have 14 failed entries you will go into this years draw with 15. Then when/if you don't draw you are issued an additional chance
https://www.facebook.com/strawberrybayoutfitters
That's just how it's been explained to me so if you have 14 failed entries you will go into this years draw with 15. Then when/if you don't draw you are issued an additional chance
https://www.facebook.com/strawberrybayoutfitters
Zeke
Long Time Member
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Yes, he'll have 15 random numbers assigned to his 2015 application. All will be thrown out but his single lowest number (low number is a good thing).
I guess it's almost like his name in the hat 15 times but it's even more random than that.
Good hell, with computers involved we don't have a "real" clue! Haha
If I was the programmer I'd have a few more great tags under my belt! Ha
Zeke
I guess it's almost like his name in the hat 15 times but it's even more random than that.
Good hell, with computers involved we don't have a "real" clue! Haha
If I was the programmer I'd have a few more great tags under my belt! Ha
Zeke
