Hunting Expo Results Are In- Did you win?

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Whatarethechances

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I just looked over the results for the 200 tags raffled at the Hunting Expo. I was not surprised when I did not win a tag, but maybe my odds were not any better than the Utah DWR draw with too few points.

I was very surprised at the odds of some folks winning a tag. What struck me was 4 folks from Hooper, Utah won tags, 3 elk and 1 pronghorn. I am no statistician, but the 2007 odds for an elk were roughly 1/185 and 3 folks from Hooper got 3 of the 51 elk tags. I did not even know where Hooper was located so I checked it out, a small town in Weber County with about 6000 residents. Maybe the entire town put in for the tags and they are really lucky or maybe something else is going on?

Two of the folks that won the coveted elk tags had the same last name? Big hunting family? Lucky? All three of the folks live down the road from one another? The chance that 3 folks from a small town all win tags for the same animal is very suspicious. I hope some statistician runs the numbers, but my ball park figure is 1/1,000,000 chances that this will happen by random chance. Which is presumably the way the draw works - isn't it?

What do others think about this? Some folks are lucky and some folks are favored. I just would like to know if I should be hoping for a tag in the future or just donate my money to the MDF and SFH and help out the animals and know that the odds of getting a tag are not as advertised.

"Life isn't about how to survive the storm, but how to dance in the rain."
 
Well I am not personal friends with anyone from SFW and I drew a tag. If everyone was given tags by conspiracy, don't you think at least one of them would revolt and let the word out??

All it is, is a coincidence.
 
I know of 3 people that drew elk tags and not one of them is connected at all with any of the hunting groups. I believe it is legit.

What I also believe is that stats can be used to tell any story you want.

CS

"Helping turn good tags, into great ones." - VIP Optics
 
I am not sure what to say? I saw one name who is pretty big money and very lucky? I saw one name tied to SFW. I saw many people I do not know. I saw a few I did know? I saw one guy drew another tag this year. What does this mean? I think it means all names were thrown into a hat and a random draw verified by the DWR took place. Just as advertised. I would wish that if people truly believe they are getting ripped off, they would stay home. Better yet, if you have good reason to believe a conspiracy take it to the AG. Nothing fishy happens. If it did then some pissed off ex employee would rat it all out. I also like to think people are honest and have good intentions. I even know one guy who does not apply because he does not want to hear it from guys like you.
 
LAST EDITED ON Feb-14-08 AT 11:08PM (MST)[p]I didn't win, but I didn't expect to win. The reason I applied was because the money goes to the wildlife. If I won it was just icing on the cake. No big deal, it was a donation and I'll do it again next year.
 
backpacker,

I like your attitude. Maybe the best thing to do is follow your lead and thank God we have people covering our backs with the law and DWR and appreciate the efforts to make hunting better?

I admitted a day early I had not won anything. I would have passed out if anything different had showed up on the list.
 
There are no conspiracies going on, although we hear about it every year.

My brother (Silent Stalker) drew a convention tag last year and he has no "connections". My parents neighbor drew two tags this year (Vernon Deer and San Juan Elk) and I don't think he did anything special. Random luck is all it is :)

I'll tell you what, the $80 I spent this year applying was worth the anticipation as I scrolled down the results page to try and find my name. Although my name never showed up, I can feel good about that money going to wildlife and will plan on another $80 or more next year. I like knowing I have a chance at drawing an awesome tag separate from the regular DWR draw.

Cory
 
I can understand that this program is for a good cause but I can also sympathize with those who are frustrated. Most contests are limited to entrants who have no connection with the organization running them. I also think it would be more desireable to have 200 winners. I mean one guy drew moose and bighorn, holy crap! Luck, coincidence, whatever you call it, I can't blame some for being upset with guys who seem to draw something every year.
 
two different guys same name read where they are from that would be crazy if that had really happened
Just Living The Dream
 

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