Three expo tags one person
- Thread starter BigSimps
- Start date
elkassassin
Long Time Member
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- 36,945
RE: Three expo tags one person
> What the hell! I've been
>putting in for those expo
>tags for years now and
>this lady just draws three
>of them at one time.
>She has got to be
>the luckiest person ever. Possibly
>rigged?
She's HOT!
And If You Seen Her You'd Give Her Some Tags Too!
Must be a Conspiracy!
My Signature is a Short Clip of NVB & His Coal Roller!
"We Better Get out of the F'N Way cuzz Ole NVB is Coming to MF'N Town"!
> What the hell! I've been
>putting in for those expo
>tags for years now and
>this lady just draws three
>of them at one time.
>She has got to be
>the luckiest person ever. Possibly
>rigged?
She's HOT!
And If You Seen Her You'd Give Her Some Tags Too!
Must be a Conspiracy!
My Signature is a Short Clip of NVB & His Coal Roller!
"We Better Get out of the F'N Way cuzz Ole NVB is Coming to MF'N Town"!
elkassassin
Long Time Member
- Messages
- 36,945
RE: Three expo tags one person
She's Probably in Vegas this Morning!
My Signature is a Short Clip of NVB & His Coal Roller!
"We Better Get out of the F'N Way cuzz Ole NVB is Coming to MF'N Town"!
She's Probably in Vegas this Morning!
My Signature is a Short Clip of NVB & His Coal Roller!
"We Better Get out of the F'N Way cuzz Ole NVB is Coming to MF'N Town"!
smokepoler63
Active Member
- Messages
- 371
RE: Three expo tags one person
I think the Expo tag draw system is rigged. Here are some facts that defy statistical probability: 3 out of the 4 of the Book Cliffs Archery deer tags went to residents of Vernal, UT. Let that sink in for a minute. Residents of Vernal and Roosevelt drew 18 of the 200 expo tags, that's almost 10% of all Expo draw tags going to residents of these two small towns!
If you understand anything about statistics, you begin to realize what a statistical improbability this is! Then when you throw in the fact that the UT DWR awarded the expo contract to SFW/MDF despite a far superior proposal from the Rocky Mountain Elk Foundation that would have returned so much more money to Utah and the DWR, plus the lack of transparency of SFW in the last 11 years of running the expo and tag draws, you can't help but realize there is rampant corruption and collusion going on between UT DWR and SFW. Somebody within the state's legal system, office of Inspector General, or whatever body of state government would have oversight of this issue needs to look into the situation. This information needs to be exposed to the public. And the corruption and collusion needs to stop. SFW, stop stealing from the public!
I think the Expo tag draw system is rigged. Here are some facts that defy statistical probability: 3 out of the 4 of the Book Cliffs Archery deer tags went to residents of Vernal, UT. Let that sink in for a minute. Residents of Vernal and Roosevelt drew 18 of the 200 expo tags, that's almost 10% of all Expo draw tags going to residents of these two small towns!
If you understand anything about statistics, you begin to realize what a statistical improbability this is! Then when you throw in the fact that the UT DWR awarded the expo contract to SFW/MDF despite a far superior proposal from the Rocky Mountain Elk Foundation that would have returned so much more money to Utah and the DWR, plus the lack of transparency of SFW in the last 11 years of running the expo and tag draws, you can't help but realize there is rampant corruption and collusion going on between UT DWR and SFW. Somebody within the state's legal system, office of Inspector General, or whatever body of state government would have oversight of this issue needs to look into the situation. This information needs to be exposed to the public. And the corruption and collusion needs to stop. SFW, stop stealing from the public!
desertpointbrian
Very Active Member
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- 1,347
RE: Three expo tags one person
What the fact that results come out at 9:30 pm. from some dudes basement in bountiful is not a red flag to any of you. You guys are easy
What the fact that results come out at 9:30 pm. from some dudes basement in bountiful is not a red flag to any of you. You guys are easy
Broadside_Shot
Active Member
- Messages
- 590
RE: Three expo tags one person
Its the Algorithm programmed to do the Draw Process. Any computer program is not 100% random. Something has to tell it where to pick from and it repeats itself.
Its the same process for the Regular Draws, except you have Bonus Points in the equation that make it more random because there are more numbers.
It's not Rigged, its a Flaw in the System and if you happen to be the "Lucky Person" in the spot that the computer continually repeats itself on, then you have the situation of Drawing 3 Tags in the same year with Astronomical odds. Every year there are multiple winners
I just hope one day I am the "Lucky Person"
Its the Algorithm programmed to do the Draw Process. Any computer program is not 100% random. Something has to tell it where to pick from and it repeats itself.
Its the same process for the Regular Draws, except you have Bonus Points in the equation that make it more random because there are more numbers.
It's not Rigged, its a Flaw in the System and if you happen to be the "Lucky Person" in the spot that the computer continually repeats itself on, then you have the situation of Drawing 3 Tags in the same year with Astronomical odds. Every year there are multiple winners
I just hope one day I am the "Lucky Person"
Hawkeye
Long Time Member
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- 3,014
RE: Three expo tags one person
LAST EDITED ON Feb-24-17 AT 10:03AM (MST)[p]As you know, I have been very critical of the Expo Tags and the lack of transparency that surrounds the use of the funds generated by those tags. For what it is worth, however, I do not believe that the drawing process for those tags is rigged. The expo tag drawing process has been audited many times. I have included a link to the latest audit: https://wildlife.utah.gov/public_meetings/board/2016-09_board_packet.pdf The review of the drawing process begins on page 103/145. In fact, in the early years the drawing process was the only thing that was audited (not how the money spent). In addition, the DWR and the groups have invited outsiders to attend the actual drawing process. I have spoken with sportsmen that I know and respect who are not affiliated with SFW, MDF or the DWR who have attended and witnessed the drawing and they said it was legit. Yes, every year it seems like someone within SFW draws a tag and some lucky sportsman/women draws multiple tags. I certainly am not an actuary or a software engineer but I chalk that up to statistics. It may be improbable but it can happen and in fact does happen. I can also tell you that before I learned about how the Expo Tag proceeds were being used that I applied for and drew Paunsaugunt tag at the Expo in 2008. If memory serve me right the odds of me drawing that tage were about 1/4500. Even more suspicous, my brother in law also drew an LE elk tag that same year. I can assure you that nobody on the inside was doing us any favors. Therefore, I focus my attention and energy on the real issues and concerns regarding the Expo Tags like the fact that only 30% of the revenues are accounted for and used for approved conservation projects.
-Hawkeye-
LAST EDITED ON Feb-24-17 AT 10:03AM (MST)[p]As you know, I have been very critical of the Expo Tags and the lack of transparency that surrounds the use of the funds generated by those tags. For what it is worth, however, I do not believe that the drawing process for those tags is rigged. The expo tag drawing process has been audited many times. I have included a link to the latest audit: https://wildlife.utah.gov/public_meetings/board/2016-09_board_packet.pdf The review of the drawing process begins on page 103/145. In fact, in the early years the drawing process was the only thing that was audited (not how the money spent). In addition, the DWR and the groups have invited outsiders to attend the actual drawing process. I have spoken with sportsmen that I know and respect who are not affiliated with SFW, MDF or the DWR who have attended and witnessed the drawing and they said it was legit. Yes, every year it seems like someone within SFW draws a tag and some lucky sportsman/women draws multiple tags. I certainly am not an actuary or a software engineer but I chalk that up to statistics. It may be improbable but it can happen and in fact does happen. I can also tell you that before I learned about how the Expo Tag proceeds were being used that I applied for and drew Paunsaugunt tag at the Expo in 2008. If memory serve me right the odds of me drawing that tage were about 1/4500. Even more suspicous, my brother in law also drew an LE elk tag that same year. I can assure you that nobody on the inside was doing us any favors. Therefore, I focus my attention and energy on the real issues and concerns regarding the Expo Tags like the fact that only 30% of the revenues are accounted for and used for approved conservation projects.
-Hawkeye-
grizzly
Long Time Member
- Messages
- 5,591
RE: Three expo tags one person
I doubt the draw is rigged. That would be a level of fraud approaching imprisonment and I don't think it would be worth it to any individuals involved to write something like that into computer code that could be so easily identified by a software programmer.
My understanding is that there is no such thing as a true random number generator in computer programming and that any irregularities are likely a result of a software glitch and not a deliberate rigging of the system.
I've been widely critical of SFW over their flaws and appalling support of the land grab, but I don't think this is one of the areas that I'm concerned about.
Grizzly
I doubt the draw is rigged. That would be a level of fraud approaching imprisonment and I don't think it would be worth it to any individuals involved to write something like that into computer code that could be so easily identified by a software programmer.
My understanding is that there is no such thing as a true random number generator in computer programming and that any irregularities are likely a result of a software glitch and not a deliberate rigging of the system.
I've been widely critical of SFW over their flaws and appalling support of the land grab, but I don't think this is one of the areas that I'm concerned about.
Grizzly
Broadside_Shot
Active Member
- Messages
- 590
RE: Three expo tags one person
It's not programed to select a person, it's the program repeating itself.
The best way I saw this was in the Pop Up Archery Shoot. You put the program on Random and different scenarios pop up. It was amazing that out of 10,000 different patterns how often the same pattern showed up, even back to back.
It's not programed to select a person, it's the program repeating itself.
The best way I saw this was in the Pop Up Archery Shoot. You put the program on Random and different scenarios pop up. It was amazing that out of 10,000 different patterns how often the same pattern showed up, even back to back.
RE: Three expo tags one person
>I think the Expo tag draw
>system is rigged. Here are
>some facts that defy statistical
>probability: 3 out of the
>4 of the Book Cliffs
>Archery deer tags went to
>residents of Vernal, UT. Let
>that sink in for a
>minute. Residents of Vernal and
>Roosevelt drew 18 of the
>200 expo tags, that's almost
>10% of all Expo draw
>tags going to residents of
>these two small towns!
I have to disagree with you on this. I live in Vernal, and if you know anything about the people here, and our culture, you would know that there is a very high percentage of our population that attended the expo this and every year. That coupled with the fact that of course we are probably all going to apply for the tags in a unit that is basically in our backyard. Also, there are 11 hunts designated for the Book Cliffs that each could apply for, and I'm sure that many of them did apply for several different hunts in the Book Cliffs. On top of that, these hunts have pretty good draw odds when compared to some of the LE deer and elk hunts, mostly because there are a high number of tags given out.
So (relatively) good draw odds, plus a high number of local applicants = high success rates for local applicants. I'm not surprised at all really.
>I think the Expo tag draw
>system is rigged. Here are
>some facts that defy statistical
>probability: 3 out of the
>4 of the Book Cliffs
>Archery deer tags went to
>residents of Vernal, UT. Let
>that sink in for a
>minute. Residents of Vernal and
>Roosevelt drew 18 of the
>200 expo tags, that's almost
>10% of all Expo draw
>tags going to residents of
>these two small towns!
I have to disagree with you on this. I live in Vernal, and if you know anything about the people here, and our culture, you would know that there is a very high percentage of our population that attended the expo this and every year. That coupled with the fact that of course we are probably all going to apply for the tags in a unit that is basically in our backyard. Also, there are 11 hunts designated for the Book Cliffs that each could apply for, and I'm sure that many of them did apply for several different hunts in the Book Cliffs. On top of that, these hunts have pretty good draw odds when compared to some of the LE deer and elk hunts, mostly because there are a high number of tags given out.
So (relatively) good draw odds, plus a high number of local applicants = high success rates for local applicants. I'm not surprised at all really.
elkassassin
Long Time Member
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- 36,945
RE: Three expo tags one person
>Just a casual observation on my
>part.
>
>Buck Deer ? Limited Entry ?
>Any Weapon ? West Desert,
>Vernon
>
>JARED PEAY
I Knew this was Coming!
But Only From Eel!
You Think That's PEAYDAY Jr?
My Signature is a Short Clip of NVB & His Coal Roller!
"We Better Get out of the F'N Way cuzz Ole NVB is Coming to MF'N Town"!
>Just a casual observation on my
>part.
>
>Buck Deer ? Limited Entry ?
>Any Weapon ? West Desert,
>Vernon
>
>JARED PEAY
I Knew this was Coming!
But Only From Eel!
You Think That's PEAYDAY Jr?
My Signature is a Short Clip of NVB & His Coal Roller!
"We Better Get out of the F'N Way cuzz Ole NVB is Coming to MF'N Town"!
hornkiller
Long Time Member
- Messages
- 4,210
RE: Three expo tags one person
I love watching you guys make people rich then get on here and cry!
I love watching you guys make people rich then get on here and cry!
wileywapati
Very Active Member
- Messages
- 1,808
RE: Three expo tags one person
^^^Exactly^^^
"If the DWR was just doing its job, and
wildlife and hunting were the actual focus,
none of this process would even matter.
But that is not the focus or the goal in any
of this. The current DWR regime, and
SFW were born out of wildlife declines,
and are currently operated and funded
under that paradigm. Those 200 Expo
tags would not even be worth anything if
the focus was where it was supposed to
be, and wildlife and tags were plentiful.
But under the current business model,
that is how the money and power is
generated. It is generated through the
rising "value"(monitization) of a declining
resource. A resource that is supposed to
be being beneficially managed for the
masses that own that resource, ie. US.
The problem is obvious, hedging is not a
long term sustainable strategy, and
others have to lose, for some to win. In
this case it is us, the many, and our
resources, that are being forced to lose,
because there is a minority who's power
and money is derived from our loses."
LONETREE 3/15/16
^^^Exactly^^^
"If the DWR was just doing its job, and
wildlife and hunting were the actual focus,
none of this process would even matter.
But that is not the focus or the goal in any
of this. The current DWR regime, and
SFW were born out of wildlife declines,
and are currently operated and funded
under that paradigm. Those 200 Expo
tags would not even be worth anything if
the focus was where it was supposed to
be, and wildlife and tags were plentiful.
But under the current business model,
that is how the money and power is
generated. It is generated through the
rising "value"(monitization) of a declining
resource. A resource that is supposed to
be being beneficially managed for the
masses that own that resource, ie. US.
The problem is obvious, hedging is not a
long term sustainable strategy, and
others have to lose, for some to win. In
this case it is us, the many, and our
resources, that are being forced to lose,
because there is a minority who's power
and money is derived from our loses."
LONETREE 3/15/16
JakeH
Long Time Member
- Messages
- 4,284
RE: Three expo tags one person
LAST EDITED ON Feb-24-17 AT 06:35PM (MST)[p]>I think the Expo tag draw
>system is rigged. Here are
>some facts that defy statistical
>probability: 3 out of the
>4 of the Book Cliffs
>Archery deer tags went to
>residents of Vernal, UT. Let
>that sink in for a
>minute. Residents of Vernal and
>Roosevelt drew 18 of the
>200 expo tags, that's almost
>10% of all Expo draw
>tags going to residents of
>these two small towns!
>
Don't be over dramatic, I live in the basin, everyone and there dog visits the expo and puts in for those tags. I have always said if nobody from the Uintah Basin visited that expo they would lose a huge percentage of people. And it would be far less successful.
I honestly bump into people I know all day long while I am out there.
Jake H. BIG BONE HUNTING Page on Facebook.
LAST EDITED ON Feb-24-17 AT 06:35PM (MST)[p]>I think the Expo tag draw
>system is rigged. Here are
>some facts that defy statistical
>probability: 3 out of the
>4 of the Book Cliffs
>Archery deer tags went to
>residents of Vernal, UT. Let
>that sink in for a
>minute. Residents of Vernal and
>Roosevelt drew 18 of the
>200 expo tags, that's almost
>10% of all Expo draw
>tags going to residents of
>these two small towns!
>
Don't be over dramatic, I live in the basin, everyone and there dog visits the expo and puts in for those tags. I have always said if nobody from the Uintah Basin visited that expo they would lose a huge percentage of people. And it would be far less successful.
I honestly bump into people I know all day long while I am out there.
Jake H. BIG BONE HUNTING Page on Facebook.
grizzly
Long Time Member
- Messages
- 5,591
RE: Three expo tags one person
>Again, and it's so obvious that
>your disdain for SFW has
>caused you many sleepless nights.
>You are lying about their
>"appalling support" of land grap.
>What does their Feb 9th
>news release say about the
>selling of public lands?
I didn't say they supported the selling of land, which they quietly renounced without media or fanfare. I said they support the land grab, which they apparently do since they haven't opposed it, spoken against it, emailed members regarding the negatives of the land grab to hunting, or flexed their political muscle to force public land protections into the land grab bill.
SFW claims Land Grab neutrality (like they did with their support of the Stream Grab) with Herbert himself being filmed saying he wants the privatization of public land for "commercial development". They do this even though EVERY study (even the one paid for by the proponents) says public land will have to be sold to raise money. They do this with absolutely no verbiage in the law preventing public land from being sold.
My facts are strong and irrefutable. SFW can prove me wrong any day they want by opposing the land grab. Nobody is stopping them and I truly hope they do.
-----
You guys can drink the SFW Kool-aid until you can't see straight, but my eyes are wide open and I'll continue to talk about it until they stand up for the hunters they claim to support.
Grizzly
>Again, and it's so obvious that
>your disdain for SFW has
>caused you many sleepless nights.
>You are lying about their
>"appalling support" of land grap.
>What does their Feb 9th
>news release say about the
>selling of public lands?
I didn't say they supported the selling of land, which they quietly renounced without media or fanfare. I said they support the land grab, which they apparently do since they haven't opposed it, spoken against it, emailed members regarding the negatives of the land grab to hunting, or flexed their political muscle to force public land protections into the land grab bill.
SFW claims Land Grab neutrality (like they did with their support of the Stream Grab) with Herbert himself being filmed saying he wants the privatization of public land for "commercial development". They do this even though EVERY study (even the one paid for by the proponents) says public land will have to be sold to raise money. They do this with absolutely no verbiage in the law preventing public land from being sold.
My facts are strong and irrefutable. SFW can prove me wrong any day they want by opposing the land grab. Nobody is stopping them and I truly hope they do.
-----
You guys can drink the SFW Kool-aid until you can't see straight, but my eyes are wide open and I'll continue to talk about it until they stand up for the hunters they claim to support.
Grizzly
Buccsboy55
Active Member
- Messages
- 401
RE: Three expo tags one person
Rigged and crooked that's why I stayed home the last two years ?
Rigged and crooked that's why I stayed home the last two years ?
sticksender
Active Member
- Messages
- 996
RE: Three expo tags one person
2_point the statistics wouldn't necessarily refute it, they'd just show you the odds for any particular outcome to happen. It's even statistically possible for someone to draw 10 tags in one year. The probability for that is a very, very small number, but it can happen, statistically. Just because someone draws 3 tags, is not in itself evidence of "rigging" or "poor design". Such an outcome is actually statistically likely to happen on occasion, in a random draw.
To prevent this 3-fer scenario from happening, they could change the draw algorithm to limit each person to one Expo tag per year. Not sure that would be the best move for the Expo though, as they'd probably sell far fewer $5.00 chances overall. But of course they do place such a limitation in the regular state draw with the Limited/OIL tags.
2_point the statistics wouldn't necessarily refute it, they'd just show you the odds for any particular outcome to happen. It's even statistically possible for someone to draw 10 tags in one year. The probability for that is a very, very small number, but it can happen, statistically. Just because someone draws 3 tags, is not in itself evidence of "rigging" or "poor design". Such an outcome is actually statistically likely to happen on occasion, in a random draw.
To prevent this 3-fer scenario from happening, they could change the draw algorithm to limit each person to one Expo tag per year. Not sure that would be the best move for the Expo though, as they'd probably sell far fewer $5.00 chances overall. But of course they do place such a limitation in the regular state draw with the Limited/OIL tags.
elkhunterUT
Very Active Member
- Messages
- 2,859
RE: Three expo tags one person
The software worked pretty well in 2009 when my name popped up for a Wasatch rifle elk tag
The software worked pretty well in 2009 when my name popped up for a Wasatch rifle elk tag
RE: Three expo tags one person
LAST EDITED ON Feb-26-17 AT 03:28PM (MST)[p]>2_point the statistics wouldn't necessarily refute
>it, they'd just show you
>the odds for any particular
>outcome to happen. It's even
>statistically possible for someone to
>draw 10 tags in one
>year. The probability for that
>is a very, very small
>number, but it can happen,
>statistically. Just because someone draws
>3 tags, is not in
>itself evidence of "rigging" or
>"poor design". Such an outcome
>is actually statistically likely to
>happen on occasion, in a
>random draw.
>
>To prevent this 3-fer scenario from
>happening, they could change the
>draw algorithm to limit each
>person to one Expo tag
>per year. Not sure that
>would be the best move
>for the Expo though, as
>they'd probably sell far fewer
>$5.00 chances overall. But of
>course they do place such
>a limitation in the regular
>state draw with the Limited/OIL
>tags.
It is statistically possible for someone to draw 10 permits or 200 permits. Come on man, let us not banter in infinitesimal possibilities. In a purely random selection, the odds of someone drawing 3 tags is in the neighborhood of 1 in tens of millions. The odds of someone drawing 2 tags is in the 1 in hundreds of thousands.
The drawing of multiple permits by individuals occurs every year and is a common occurrence. The draw software being used is not random. Period. End of debate. The expo draw isn't rigged, just poorly executed.
LAST EDITED ON Feb-26-17 AT 03:28PM (MST)[p]>2_point the statistics wouldn't necessarily refute
>it, they'd just show you
>the odds for any particular
>outcome to happen. It's even
>statistically possible for someone to
>draw 10 tags in one
>year. The probability for that
>is a very, very small
>number, but it can happen,
>statistically. Just because someone draws
>3 tags, is not in
>itself evidence of "rigging" or
>"poor design". Such an outcome
>is actually statistically likely to
>happen on occasion, in a
>random draw.
>
>To prevent this 3-fer scenario from
>happening, they could change the
>draw algorithm to limit each
>person to one Expo tag
>per year. Not sure that
>would be the best move
>for the Expo though, as
>they'd probably sell far fewer
>$5.00 chances overall. But of
>course they do place such
>a limitation in the regular
>state draw with the Limited/OIL
>tags.
It is statistically possible for someone to draw 10 permits or 200 permits. Come on man, let us not banter in infinitesimal possibilities. In a purely random selection, the odds of someone drawing 3 tags is in the neighborhood of 1 in tens of millions. The odds of someone drawing 2 tags is in the 1 in hundreds of thousands.
The drawing of multiple permits by individuals occurs every year and is a common occurrence. The draw software being used is not random. Period. End of debate. The expo draw isn't rigged, just poorly executed.
RE: Three expo tags one person
Come February every year, there are a few things that I can guarantee to happen.
1-seeing posts on MM shortly after the expo concludes saying the system is rigged because someone drew more than one tag.
2- hearing people complain that a small portion of funds generated from the 200 expo tags actually goes to wildlife conservation yet they continually apply for those tags and get mad when they don't get their slice of the pie.
3-me not attending the expo like a sheep
Go ahead and keep the attitude that "you got to get yours"
"Wildlife and its habitat cannot speak. So
we must and we will."
Theadore Roosevelt
Come February every year, there are a few things that I can guarantee to happen.
1-seeing posts on MM shortly after the expo concludes saying the system is rigged because someone drew more than one tag.
2- hearing people complain that a small portion of funds generated from the 200 expo tags actually goes to wildlife conservation yet they continually apply for those tags and get mad when they don't get their slice of the pie.
3-me not attending the expo like a sheep
Go ahead and keep the attitude that "you got to get yours"
"Wildlife and its habitat cannot speak. So
we must and we will."
Theadore Roosevelt
slamdunk
Moderator
- Messages
- 10,389
RE: Three expo tags one person
Two of my hunting buddies ran up to the expo on Saturday morning and applied for elk tags without even attending the Expo it's self.
Both drew any weapon early elk tags, but different units of course.
Guess I should have went with them!!!
Two of my hunting buddies ran up to the expo on Saturday morning and applied for elk tags without even attending the Expo it's self.
Both drew any weapon early elk tags, but different units of course.
Guess I should have went with them!!!
RE: Three expo tags one person
Let me crunch some numbers for ya for this 2017 year!
247,148 total 5$ applications = 1,235,740 dollars made for 200 expo tag application fees.
The conservation organization may retain up to $3.50 of each $5.00 application fee for administrative expenses. based on Rule R657-55-10 (2). This equates to......
$ 370,722 will be used by the conservation organization to fund projects advancing wildlife interests in the state of Utah and $ 865,018 to SFW for administrative expenses.
All interest earned on application fee revenue may be retained and used by the conservation organization for administrative expenses as well.
"Wildlife and its habitat cannot speak. So
we must and we will."
Theadore Roosevelt
Let me crunch some numbers for ya for this 2017 year!
247,148 total 5$ applications = 1,235,740 dollars made for 200 expo tag application fees.
The conservation organization may retain up to $3.50 of each $5.00 application fee for administrative expenses. based on Rule R657-55-10 (2). This equates to......
$ 370,722 will be used by the conservation organization to fund projects advancing wildlife interests in the state of Utah and $ 865,018 to SFW for administrative expenses.
All interest earned on application fee revenue may be retained and used by the conservation organization for administrative expenses as well.
"Wildlife and its habitat cannot speak. So
we must and we will."
Theadore Roosevelt
elkassassin
Long Time Member
- Messages
- 36,945
RE: Three expo tags one person
Can Somebody Tell Me what The Exact Odds are of Drawing 3 Tags in the Same Draw/Year?
And No SMART Remarks saying 3 in 200!
My Signature is a Short Clip of NVB & His Coal Roller!
"We Better Get out of the F'N Way cuzz Ole NVB is Coming to MF'N Town"!
Can Somebody Tell Me what The Exact Odds are of Drawing 3 Tags in the Same Draw/Year?
And No SMART Remarks saying 3 in 200!
My Signature is a Short Clip of NVB & His Coal Roller!
"We Better Get out of the F'N Way cuzz Ole NVB is Coming to MF'N Town"!
JakeH
Long Time Member
- Messages
- 4,284
RE: Three expo tags one person
My question is why would they "rig" the system so that some woman that as far as I know (yes I know who she is) isn't a big time hunter would get 3 tags, if they are rigging it get some real sportsman some of these tags.
The whole rigged system argument is just stupid. Poor design that is possible but its not rigged.
Jake H. BIG BONE HUNTING Page on Facebook.
My question is why would they "rig" the system so that some woman that as far as I know (yes I know who she is) isn't a big time hunter would get 3 tags, if they are rigging it get some real sportsman some of these tags.
The whole rigged system argument is just stupid. Poor design that is possible but its not rigged.
Jake H. BIG BONE HUNTING Page on Facebook.
hossblur
Long Time Member
- Messages
- 10,516
RE: Three expo tags one person
So, let me get this straight. The system isn't rigged(I doubt it is either) its just a bad program. As Billy Bob pointed out, $fw took in another $800k just on app fees for "admin costs". What do you suppose they spent the cash on, not a good system? Wasn't that part of why $fw beat out RMEF, superior IT?
You know who ain't bitchin, me. I took $5, handed it to the woman at the 7-11 for one of those nifty 4 packs of Keystone, and got change in return.
The way I see it, much like others are pointing out, YOU KNOW going in, your getting screwed. YOU KNOW going in your playing 3 card monty, YOU KNOW the house gets paid better than Vegas. YOU DON'T get to ##### afterward. STOP feeding the cancer. If you don't hand them your cash, they shut down. $fw buisness model was stolen from the corner drug dealer, "just give them a little taste", has been sucking in junkies for decades. Do the math, figure out what you have given this crew over the years, then do a search on how many hunts, with guaranteed tags you could have gone on. The Expo isn't about getting YOU tags, its about getting those deep pocket dudes tags. They couldnt get the state to let them have those tags, unless they "give you a little taste", which, like a good junkie, you go for continuously. In this game, $fw has guys missing the forest for the trees, and laughing to the bank doing so. But keep trying to figure odds on your "taste", $fw odds are 100%, year after year. Im sure none of the money will go to lobbying Herby for another $fw member on the WB, or lobbying for BFG to get 2 million of YOUR tax money, or lobbying for state selloff of land. YOUR money, I'm sure, will go to improve the draw software, to make it more fair.
"The only thing that stops a bad guy with a gun is a good guy with a gun"
So, let me get this straight. The system isn't rigged(I doubt it is either) its just a bad program. As Billy Bob pointed out, $fw took in another $800k just on app fees for "admin costs". What do you suppose they spent the cash on, not a good system? Wasn't that part of why $fw beat out RMEF, superior IT?
You know who ain't bitchin, me. I took $5, handed it to the woman at the 7-11 for one of those nifty 4 packs of Keystone, and got change in return.
The way I see it, much like others are pointing out, YOU KNOW going in, your getting screwed. YOU KNOW going in your playing 3 card monty, YOU KNOW the house gets paid better than Vegas. YOU DON'T get to ##### afterward. STOP feeding the cancer. If you don't hand them your cash, they shut down. $fw buisness model was stolen from the corner drug dealer, "just give them a little taste", has been sucking in junkies for decades. Do the math, figure out what you have given this crew over the years, then do a search on how many hunts, with guaranteed tags you could have gone on. The Expo isn't about getting YOU tags, its about getting those deep pocket dudes tags. They couldnt get the state to let them have those tags, unless they "give you a little taste", which, like a good junkie, you go for continuously. In this game, $fw has guys missing the forest for the trees, and laughing to the bank doing so. But keep trying to figure odds on your "taste", $fw odds are 100%, year after year. Im sure none of the money will go to lobbying Herby for another $fw member on the WB, or lobbying for BFG to get 2 million of YOUR tax money, or lobbying for state selloff of land. YOUR money, I'm sure, will go to improve the draw software, to make it more fair.
"The only thing that stops a bad guy with a gun is a good guy with a gun"
elkfromabove
Very Active Member
- Messages
- 2,098
RE: Three expo tags one person
LAST EDITED ON Feb-27-17 AT 09:24AM (MST)[p]LAST EDITED ON Feb-27-17 AT 08:56?AM (MST)
>It is not rigged. It just
>is not working correctly.
Is it rigged if it's not working correctly and they know about it or have known about it and haven't or don't fix it?
No matter how it plays out, the Expo Partners end up with 70% of the funds which is way more than the ticket retailers of the Texas Lottery get (5.4%)! Plus the Texas lottery doesn't have to market any public assets to make the system work.
LAST EDITED ON Feb-27-17 AT 09:24AM (MST)[p]LAST EDITED ON Feb-27-17 AT 08:56?AM (MST)
>It is not rigged. It just
>is not working correctly.
Is it rigged if it's not working correctly and they know about it or have known about it and haven't or don't fix it?
No matter how it plays out, the Expo Partners end up with 70% of the funds which is way more than the ticket retailers of the Texas Lottery get (5.4%)! Plus the Texas lottery doesn't have to market any public assets to make the system work.
Reuben_Soady
Active Member
- Messages
- 332
RE: Three expo tags one person
I think that (based on jhawksd numbers above) if you bought a ticket for each, then there's a ~1/119 chance of drawing one unspecified tag. (sum of sums)
But there is only a 1 in 101 million chance of drawing one of each of three tags (product of sums)
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Give a man a little luck and anything will do for brains (Albert Soady).
I think that (based on jhawksd numbers above) if you bought a ticket for each, then there's a ~1/119 chance of drawing one unspecified tag. (sum of sums)
But there is only a 1 in 101 million chance of drawing one of each of three tags (product of sums)
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Give a man a little luck and anything will do for brains (Albert Soady).
Hawkeye
Long Time Member
- Messages
- 3,014
RE: Three expo tags one person
I am no math whiz or statistician but assuming those calculations are correct and the lucky lady had roughly 1 in 101 million chance of drawing those three tags then she is either the luckiest lady alive or perhaps there is a problem with the software used for the draw. If that is the case, don't blame it on the groups involved. From 2007 to 2016, SFW and MDF only pocketed $8,266,951.16 in Expo Tag proceeds. See chart below. For all we know, they spent every dime of that money on actual conservation projects but don't want to account for those projects because it could be viewed as bragging and would futher reinforce the reality that they do more for conservation in Utah than any other group? And as a result, they have no money left over to improve or refine the software used for the Expo Tag drawing?
In all seriousness, I still highly doubt that the drawing is rigged but I will leave it to folks much smarter than me to question their software and the odds of one applicant drawing three tags.
-Hawkeye-
I am no math whiz or statistician but assuming those calculations are correct and the lucky lady had roughly 1 in 101 million chance of drawing those three tags then she is either the luckiest lady alive or perhaps there is a problem with the software used for the draw. If that is the case, don't blame it on the groups involved. From 2007 to 2016, SFW and MDF only pocketed $8,266,951.16 in Expo Tag proceeds. See chart below. For all we know, they spent every dime of that money on actual conservation projects but don't want to account for those projects because it could be viewed as bragging and would futher reinforce the reality that they do more for conservation in Utah than any other group? And as a result, they have no money left over to improve or refine the software used for the Expo Tag drawing?
In all seriousness, I still highly doubt that the drawing is rigged but I will leave it to folks much smarter than me to question their software and the odds of one applicant drawing three tags.
-Hawkeye-
RE: Three expo tags one person
LAST EDITED ON Mar-01-17 AT 04:19PM (MST)[p]247,148 total 5$ applications = 1,235,740 dollars made for 200 expo tag application fees.
$ 370,722 will be used by the conservation organization to fund projects advancing wildlife interests in the state of Utah and $ 865,018 to SFW for administrative expenses.
So if Hawkeyes calcualtions are accurate, you can now add 2017's most recent data to figure out current up-to-date info.
11,000,185 total dollars on application fees since 2007. (YES! THATS 11 MILLION DOLLARS!!!)
9,131,969.16 of that offically going to SFW/MDF
with only 1,868,215.84 funds for actual conservation.
YOU TELL ME WHO THE WINNERS ARE?
A friend of mine drew a mountain goat tag with 4409 applications.
HORRIBLE ODDS! But lucky!
While you guys try and figure odds to draw multiple tags, SFW is laughing because like every year, the sheep will line their pockets.
"Wildlife and its habitat cannot speak. So
we must and we will."
Theadore Roosevelt
LAST EDITED ON Mar-01-17 AT 04:19PM (MST)[p]247,148 total 5$ applications = 1,235,740 dollars made for 200 expo tag application fees.
$ 370,722 will be used by the conservation organization to fund projects advancing wildlife interests in the state of Utah and $ 865,018 to SFW for administrative expenses.
So if Hawkeyes calcualtions are accurate, you can now add 2017's most recent data to figure out current up-to-date info.
11,000,185 total dollars on application fees since 2007. (YES! THATS 11 MILLION DOLLARS!!!)
9,131,969.16 of that offically going to SFW/MDF
with only 1,868,215.84 funds for actual conservation.
YOU TELL ME WHO THE WINNERS ARE?
A friend of mine drew a mountain goat tag with 4409 applications.
HORRIBLE ODDS! But lucky!
While you guys try and figure odds to draw multiple tags, SFW is laughing because like every year, the sheep will line their pockets.
"Wildlife and its habitat cannot speak. So
we must and we will."
Theadore Roosevelt
GoatT
Active Member
- Messages
- 389
RE: Three expo tags one person
LAST EDITED ON Feb-27-17 AT 11:57AM (MST)[p]Been keeping stats on odds since 2007 and stats on winners since 2013. In looking at the odds most tags with exception to Turkey tags are about a half of a percent to draw. Since 2013 53 people have drawn more than one tag. Some were multiple years others have drawn 2 tags in one year and now someone that has drawn 3 tags. There have been two others that have drawn 3 tags as well but they are from multiple years. Many believe that the draw is rigged somehow. IMO, the software used to do the draw has flaws. That is what my beef with the expo is. Secondly, I see people that have drawn that are affiliated to groups that sponsor the expo. So why are they not excluded from the draw? Any other contest that you enter rules apply that specifically say that no parties affiliated with the contest are eligible to participate. that is my other beef. That's why I choose to spend my money on hunting gear and OTC/draw tags that I know I can buy/draw every year.
LAST EDITED ON Feb-27-17 AT 11:57AM (MST)[p]Been keeping stats on odds since 2007 and stats on winners since 2013. In looking at the odds most tags with exception to Turkey tags are about a half of a percent to draw. Since 2013 53 people have drawn more than one tag. Some were multiple years others have drawn 2 tags in one year and now someone that has drawn 3 tags. There have been two others that have drawn 3 tags as well but they are from multiple years. Many believe that the draw is rigged somehow. IMO, the software used to do the draw has flaws. That is what my beef with the expo is. Secondly, I see people that have drawn that are affiliated to groups that sponsor the expo. So why are they not excluded from the draw? Any other contest that you enter rules apply that specifically say that no parties affiliated with the contest are eligible to participate. that is my other beef. That's why I choose to spend my money on hunting gear and OTC/draw tags that I know I can buy/draw every year.
bowhunt
Long Time Member
- Messages
- 3,191
RE: Three expo tags one person
Yes, that is correct, it looks like the odds would be about 1 in 110 Million of drawing the tags.
So, IMPOSSIBLE, without a computer program problem.
Someone, needs to step up and have this program debugged to find the issue.
Yes, that is correct, it looks like the odds would be about 1 in 110 Million of drawing the tags.
So, IMPOSSIBLE, without a computer program problem.
Someone, needs to step up and have this program debugged to find the issue.
RE: Three expo tags one person
LAST EDITED ON Mar-01-17 AT 02:20PM (MST)[p]I still just stinks like It could be rigged, but I'm sure it isn't. Just possibly flawed.
For the love of the hunt.
www.instagram.com/big_simps/
LAST EDITED ON Mar-01-17 AT 02:20PM (MST)[p]I still just stinks like It could be rigged, but I'm sure it isn't. Just possibly flawed.
For the love of the hunt.
www.instagram.com/big_simps/
