Expo a scam

They apply over and over again. And some might be applying for everything over and over again. I don't believe it's a scam. Maybe your luck just sucks...??? Mine does.

Brian Latturner
MonsterMuleys.com
LIKE MonsterMuleys.com
on Facebook!
 
These same people drawing multiple tags a year and same people drawing year after year is like someone drawing multiple sheep tags a year or a sheep tag every year. Literally impossible odds. I think you actually have better odds of drawing multiple sheep tags than drawing some of the expo tags with 5k+ applicants per hunt. If it's truly luck they need to go buy some lottery tickets because they also have better odds of winning that than pulling multiple expo tags. Assume what you would like but the signs and evidence would suggest something is rigged.
 
LAST EDITED ON Feb-16-18 AT 12:35PM (MST)[p]Silliness.... and I'm a huge conspiracy guy. I've know several people that have drawn tags and some that have drawn multiple. Their connection is all one common thing that I can see...they all always go and they all always apply. They have zero connection to SFW, MDF, Mossback, or anyone else. Just people that like to hunt and apply for tags.
 
The expo is a scam in the way that it fleeces sportsmen by allocating public resources to a less than transparent private entity.

But I do not believe the actual drawing to be a scam...I bet if you looked at bank statements for these people who draw multiple tags, it would be clear what the secret to success is...$$.
 
So because you finally draw a tag and know a few people that have it can't be rigged? Strange. We're talking about a few tags of the 200 that keep going to the same people. That's The Rigged part. 180 tags could be completely legit and they could be hooking a few people up every year. Seriously ignoring everything about who is doing the drawing and the terrible odds of drawing and realize to draw those tags is seriously like 1 in a million odds. It's not statistically possible. Now throw in the part about the people doing the draw and the lack of transparency and thats just the cherry on top. Why do you think they keep the drawing process and everything so secret? It makes no sense.
 
>The expo is a scam in
>the way that it fleeces
>sportsmen by allocating public resources
>to a less than transparent
>private entity.
>
>But I do not believe the
>actual drawing to be a
>scam...I bet if you looked
>at bank statements for these
>people who draw multiple tags,
>it would be clear what
>the secret to success is...$$.
>

That would be true if your'e talking about the big money it takes to get an auction tag, but not with these raffle tags where you can only buy one for each particular draw.
 
So if it's a scam then the independent Nevada company that conducts the draws must be in on it. And even though they get regular audits for their work they must be willing to put their business on the line to get paid what?...and by who?

The Scam cry is the annual sour grapes by some who what to piss on someone else's good fortune.
 
>So if it's a scam then
>the independent Nevada company that
>conducts the draws must be
>in on it. And
>even though they get regular
>audits for their work they
>must be willing to put
>their business on the line
>to get paid what?...and by
>who?
>
>The Scam cry is the annual
>sour grapes by some who
>what to piss on someone
>else's good fortune.

BS to that last comment you posted because it has nothing to do with sour grapes. Companies have people working for them that are stealing CC numbers as they work and then using them to their benefit. Who is to say that there isn't a person in that company that takes some money under the table to have a certain person just happen to draw a tag. It's far fetched, but not impossible compared to the odds of one person getting so many tags with the odds being what they are!
 
>So if it's a scam then
>the independent Nevada company that
>conducts the draws must be
>in on it. And
>even though they get regular
>audits for their work they
>must be willing to put
>their business on the line
>to get paid what?...and by
>who?
>
>The Scam cry is the annual
>sour grapes by some who
>what to piss on someone
>else's good fortune.


Except for it isn't the Nevada company that conducts the expo tag draw. So...

There is sure a lot of smoke around this. I'd like to believe the draw is entirely on the up and up. But there is an awful lot of smoke. Maybe it's all just a coincidence? I don't know. But one of the biggest SFW defenders on this forum, who also drew an expo tag, saying that everyone is silly to allege wrongdoing sure doesn't make the smoke go away.

I'm not prepared to accuse anyone of anything at this point. But things smell fishy, and I wish it was all transparent so we don't have to worry about this every year. Too bad we'll never get that transparency, and we're left to ?just trust? as smoke fills the room around us.
 
LAST EDITED ON Feb-16-18 AT 10:10PM (MST)[p]It really does seem odd that the same people draw tags year after year. I've been applying for almost every tag at the expo every year for the past 10+ years. I've never drawn and I'm not complaining, it just seems like a few certain people have unreasonably phenomenal luck.
 
So, if it's a conspiracy, what do you think someone has to do to get a couple tags each year?
And, are the "favors" one must give to get a tag different for the different tags, or does the same "favor" get one a turkey tag or sheep tag?
And, who's all in on it? Think it goes all the way up to Trump, the Russians, or just the Governor and DWR director? Or, is it just a couple computer hackers running the show and everyone is fooled except those of you who see all this smoke?

I ain't drawn no tag, so don't point fingers at me!!!!

LOL

Brian Latturner
MonsterMuleys.com
LIKE MonsterMuleys.com
on Facebook!
 
Vanilla,
I've thought it was silly before I drew a tag. That's why I've continued to apply. And me saying it's silly is me being polite.

Tell me is it fishy that Hawkeye and Robi who are both huge SFW haters have both drawn.

Honestly you dudes are out of your minds. It's actually a little scare and pathetic.
 
I have drawn too, a Pauns rifle tag in 2012. As I said, I'm not prepared to accuse anyone of anything. There really might just be some seriously incredible luck for people, and I can accept that. I just wish they would pull back the shades so there wouldn't be so many unanswered questions with this. And even you don't think that the biggest conspiracy theorists on this are saying every single tag is hand picked. But, hypothetically, even if it were only 1 tag per year that was crooked, that would be too many.

Even the most ardent supporters can't say with a straight face that this does not at least look odd. Muley_73, Founder, even Don Peay and Vanilla can all sit down at the same table and agree this looks off. People just don't win the lottery multiple times in their life, and definitely not two and three times in a row. If it happened, especially if people closely connected to the lotto company were the ones to do it, people would ask questions. Again, there may be nothing amiss, but there sure is smoke. If there is nothing to hide, then open things up and let the public see how it all goes down. Let an independent committee, not the DWR or DWR/SFW/MDF selected people, review the source codes and process for the draw and have them prepare a report. I would 100% accept whatever their findings would be and we could put any conspiracies to bed for good. Isn?t that in everyone?s best interest?
 
LAST EDITED ON Feb-16-18 AT 10:52PM (MST)[p]What would the odds of drawing three tags in three years with 1 to 5000 odds each time. I think you are in powerball country right there.

I am not accusing anyone of anything, but I would love for someone to do the math of some of the odds of drawing multiple tags in one year and multiple tags over a period of time.



Rich
 
LAST EDITED ON Feb-16-18 AT 11:28PM (MST)[p]the odds of successive events just multiply with the denominator of the odds. i.e. if the odds are 1/5000, the odds of winning 3 times in a row are 1/5000*1/5000*1/5000 = 1/125000.

would someone post the name and tag in question?

i quit the expo for quite a while after noticing multiple people from one family winning several of the door prizes and a tag. agree anyone that wins the lottery is defying statistics, but when you see multiple annomalies, its time to pay attention. unfortunately, you can see the same thing in state run drawings too if you know where to look.
 
I really don't think the drawing is purposefully rigged, and perhaps not at all. However, why don't they just come out and be more transparent? It makes me wonder if they are not totally confident in the fairness and randomness of the draw system that they use.
 
The odds of something happening three separate occasions at 1:5000 odds is 0.0000000000000008.
Odds of three things happening three separate times at 1:3000 odds is 0.0000000000000027. Pretty sure in English that's like 1 in 8 quadrillion or something. Someone with that luck could win the power ball like several hundred times in their lifetime.
 
You did your math wrong. 1/5000 x 1/5000 x 1/5000 is 0.000000000008. Which I believe is 1 in 8 trillion. So my math may have been off on the earlier post but even if this math of 1 in 8 trillion is the correct one you get the point.
 
yes, thanks for correcting my math error.

the expo has enough visibility, a decent percentage of the tags have to go in a random draw. that doesn't mean a select few arent being funneled under the table.
 
Has everyone forgotten that John Bair has drawn two expo tags? That's right, the auctioneer and former president of SFW. I believe he was the president of SFW or a chairman at the time when he drew the expo sheep tag. With odds in the .01% - .02% range of drawing the sheep tag, it makes you wonder. Everything could be 100% legit, but we will never know...

How does the state turn over these tags to the special interest group and not have more oversight on what happens with the draw process and funds generated? Why did it take sportsmen questioning the use of funds for any accountability to be made? Why do we have to question the legitimacy of the draw now? Why don't they have the draw run through Fallon, NV and not leave any room for questions and conspiracy allegations?
 
Why don't they just put the tickets in a barrel and pull names in front of a group of people? Oh wait nevermind.........



#livelikezac
 
>Why don't they just put the
>tickets in a barrel and
>pull names in front of
>a group of people? Oh
>wait nevermind.........
>
>
>
>#livelikezac

Because then those darn cheaters would just stick the ticket that they want to win on the bottom!
 
I have never been to the Expo nor a resident of Utah, but can't you apply for every single tag or is just one tag per species? If it is for every single tag and you apply for them all, your odds are way way better than 1 in 5000.

I eliminated Turkey, Black Bear and Cougar tags from these odds:
https://huntexpo.com/odds-at-drawing-an-expo-tag/

Summed the odds for drawing each tag and the odds of you drawing one tag were:

7.4% or 1 in 13.5

You would need to spend about $1000 on chances, but those odds are way better than 1 in 5000.

The odds of hitting one of these tags all three years in a row are pretty low though:

1 in 2500 or 0.4%.

I am not saying either way, but 1 in 2500 is way different than 1 in 1 in 125 Billion.

If there are multiple people drawing tags every single year, then the chance of that is way less likely.

All I know is I don't understand how RMEF is not running this show over SFW based on their 100% of money going back to wildlife and SFW's 30% proposals. That decision alone makes it more likely that more shady stuff is actually going on.
 
>How does the state turn over
>these tags to the special
>interest group and not have
>more oversight on what happens
>with the draw process and
>funds generated? Why did it
>take sportsmen questioning the use
>of funds for any accountability
>to be made? Why do
>we have to question the
>legitimacy of the draw now?
>Why don't they have the
>draw run through Fallon, NV
>and not leave any room
>for questions and conspiracy allegations?

These are all fair questions. And maybe there are legitimate answers to all of them. I'd be interested to find out.
 
There is no conspiracy. But I have been telling y'all for years the computer programs which generate the random draw choices are heavily flawed. Not just for this drawing but for all of the state tag draws.

They specifically know that there are numbers which will be more likely generated, numbers which could be generated, and numbers which will never be generated, by the equations which are supposed to be generating completely random numbers. But it's as close to random as they think they can get and to revamp the system would mean an expensive overhaul which they probably couldn't pull off under the time constraints of one year.
 
>There is no conspiracy. But
>I have been telling y'all
>for years the computer programs
>which generate the random draw
>choices are heavily flawed.
>Not just for this drawing
>but for all of the
>state tag draws.
>
>They specifically know that there are
>numbers which will be more
>likely generated, numbers which could
>be generated, and numbers which
>will never be generated, by
>the equations which are supposed
>to be generating completely random
>numbers. But it's as
>close to random as they
>think they can get and
>to revamp the system would
>mean an expensive overhaul which
>they probably couldn't pull off
>under the time constraints of
>one year.

Wow, I just agreed with Tri.


My .02. Because I'm not a computer guy I would have joined the crowd saying its legit. And I'm one of the biggest $FW critics on the planet. BUUUUTTTTT, did I not read on here how a Utah guy "hacked" Wyomings system last year?


Second. If $fw was legit, no one would question the draw. But, no one trusts them, even guys supporting them by handing them money.

Last, I know some ain't gonna like it, but WTH are you giving money to a "snake oil salesman" THEN worrying about it? Explain the logic in giving a shady crew like $fw your money, then complaining that you think they are shady. They were shady BEFORE you gave them cash, did u think they would magically change AFTER?


"The only thing that stops a bad guy with a gun is a good guy with a gun"
 
The Expo draw company, GraySky Technologies:
http://listings.findthecompany.com/l/16467099/Graysky-Technologies-Llc

also known as Graysky Technology and Graysky Simulation:
www.grayskysim.com

They've had at least 3 known locations:
Woodenville WA
6110 S. 350 W. Murray UT 84107
147 W. Clay Park Dr. Murray UT 84107-7090 (801)265-3698 (a home)

They were originally founded by 3 men in 2007:
Jerrold Lee Gray
Rajen Shah
Jason Smith

They now consist of 2 people:
Jerrold (Jerry) Lee Gray
Becky Gray

While all those changes may be legit, it does make a person wonder, doesn't it?
 
The last few years I've saved my expo money and bought Id tags. At least I know I'm hunting and know where the money went.
 
>>The expo is a scam in
>>the way that it fleeces
>>sportsmen by allocating public resources
>>to a less than transparent
>>private entity.
>>
>>But I do not believe the
>>actual drawing to be a
>>scam...I bet if you looked
>>at bank statements for these
>>people who draw multiple tags,
>>it would be clear what
>>the secret to success is...$$.
>>
>
>That would be true if your'e
>talking about the big money
>it takes to get an
>auction tag, but not with
>these raffle tags where you
>can only buy one for
>each particular draw.

I did not realize you can only buy one entry, that sort of math does raise an eyebrow. Can you put in for each tag, or only one entry per species?
 
69310img9451.png
 
I see that an Outfitter that won a tag last year, has his wife win the exact same tag this year.

That is pretty lucky I would say.
 
I for one wont apply again. I dropped $1020 this year alone applying for myself and wife and son. I added up what I have put in for and its over $7000 since I started going to Expo. I do think its not completely random because I know people that have drawn but sure is crazy that so many with connections draw multiple times.

"I'll see you all this coming fall in the Big Rock Candy Mountains!"

 
Farrar and the number of tags she pulls is getting a little hard to believe....someone calculated the odds and they were in the 1 in 8 quadrillion range. That should raise some eyebrows.
 
Yes saw the tag this year and the tag 2 years ago. So do you think that when you buy the whole package- which is 1- $5 chance at every Tag possible on the sheet your odds are better than someone who spends $100 bucks. Then take into effect that she can buy antelope island, gov Elk or deer or any tag she wants- do you really think shes on ?the hook? for a So. Book Cliffs Tag? Or a Pauns Tag when she can buy any tag, any year? She may be affiliated with the 2 groups but doesn't donate money to them. I'm pretty sure ever year she donates the money at Expo by putting mg in for every Tag on the paper but I don't think she's doing back flips over a Bookcliffs Tag. I was under impression that Fallon NV did the drawing. And if I spend $100 my odds are less that someone who spends $1000- just saying- ya I do see some of the same names almost every year and the only thing I can see different is they are wealthy and put in for everything on sheet and I am not.
 
Has anybody ever claimed it was a fair random draw? All I ever hear is "you can't win if you don't put in". That doesn't mean you'll get a fair shake.

97172deliverancebanjo.jpg
 
GreySky is a one man company and they have run the Expo draw since the beginning. RMEF proposed using the Fallon, NV company that the state of Utah used for their drawings, but of course the Expo was handed to SFW.100% of the proceeds and a transparent draw wasn't enough for the powers that be in Utah.

There is no way a one man shop writing the code for this draw can compete with larger, more technically competent groups, but of course GreySky is a friend of the Don, so they get the contract every year.

I have no way to know if the draw is rigged. Virtually nobody gets to see the code, so it is impossible to know. Nothing about SFW is transparent, which is well documented, and it is virtually guaranteed this won't change.

Bill
 
4200,
Stop being rational and ruining the fun. They want to March around with Piggys head on a stick, let them. If it's not one thing it's another. Same people almost every single time. Always pissed about something, always getting screwed by someone or some group. Same guys same claims and same whining...and nothing ever changes.

Hawkeye,
Did you go withness the draw at some point?
 
LAST EDITED ON Feb-18-18 AT 08:00AM (MST)[p]So the guy that has run the draw since the Expo was started is a friend of the DON, huh! That is all I need to know no matter how they claim the codes are done to make it random. When John Bair who was then top dog of SFW draws a sheep tag the first year with the crazy odds, Heather gets a tag every time you turn around, etc., it more than smells fishy! Obviously, as bill mentioned, it will be impossible to prove with the lack of transparency in the SFW, the way they run the DWR with their overloaded guys on the Board, and now finding out this little tidbit about who runs the draw. The stink from Utah just gets worse the more you find out about how things are done!
 
>I believe Topgun that you cannot
>make a post without the
>words ? lack of transparency?
>


That would be a Roger when you're talking about Utah and the SFW!!!
 
>>I believe Topgun that you cannot
>>make a post without the
>>words ? lack of transparency?
>>
>
>
>That would be a Roger when
>you're talking about Utah and
>the SFW!!!


See there you go proving me wrong... I new you could do it...
 
There is no doubt in my mind there is some massive corruption in the Expo draw. I think we all agree that the RMEF debacle is enough to prove the levels of corruption in the Utah DWR. One in quadrillion should be impossible but somehow the SFW fan boys have beat the odds. John Bair drawing twice should not only be impossible but a conflict of interest. They then allowed him to be the chair for the Wilidlife Board.

Do you guys seriously not think there's no corruption here??? It's not a conspiracy theory at this point. The facts are clearly laid out on the table.
 
LAST EDITED ON Feb-18-18 AT 10:00AM (MST)[p]The draw could be "fixed"....crazier things have certainly happened. But before stating that "there's no way" someone could draw this or draw that, personally I'd first want to know the mathematical odds to draw.

So I went ahead and took a minute to extract the data from the 2018 Expo stats sheet posted on the huntexpo.com website.

You could run the stats for a lot of scenarios, based on an individual buying just a few chances, all the way up to someone who bought a full package for every tag available. But I don't have that much time right now. So here's one result, just based on a person buying their maximum of 1 chance for every tag offered.

Non Resident (106 five dollar chances @ $530.00)....odds to draw one tag or more 13.6%

Resident (101 five dollar chances @ $505.00)....odds to draw one tag or more 13.4%

These are roughly calculated, and could be fine-tuned based on the specific details of the draw algorithm. But it gets me in the ball-park. I'd have to say those are not bad odds at all, for the money spent, especially when compared to other ways of getting a tag.

And next year that person's odds will once again be similar, depending on total sales of chances of course. Their odds don't go down in next year's draw, just because they won something the prior year.
 
What about if you get rid of Turkey and cougar tags since they're seriously skewing your numbers?

Grizzly

-----------------------------------------

"It's time to revisit the widely accepted principle in the United States and Canada that game is a public resource."
-Don Peay, Founder of SFW, as quoted in Anchorage Daily News
 
Sticksender must be using the "new Math" to come up with those percentages, because chances of drawing any tag when there are thousands of people in each draw is just a small fraction of 1%, not the 13%+ like he posted! Add that to some people well known like Heather drawing more than one tag in a year and/or more than one in several years is astronomical and as close to the word impossible as it can get!
 
How many of you that are complaining are crooked, on the take, accepting bribes, or illegal contributions in your regular jobs??? Must be a lot of you, if you think that the people associated with the Expo and draw do it all the time too. I prefer to read the actual draw audit results, and base my opinion on the truth instead of hear say from a bunch of whiners.

Direct quote from the 2017 audit presented to the Wildlife Board by the UDWR Administative Chief.

"Review of the drawing process

Division of Wildlife/Department of Technology Services personnel go through an extensive
review of the draw processes used by GraySky Technologies, the subcontractor selected by SFW
to conduct the Expo permit drawing. The Division is represented by technical experts from the
Utah Department of Technology Services, who reviewed the following:
1) The process of the draw is reviewed for its soundness.
2) The database structure is reviewed to make sure that a customer can't flood a certain hunt by
making multiple entries for that hunt.
3) A review of the code is conducted to make sure that there is no chance that a seeded record
could exist in the database prior to the assignment of random numbers. This is done to
ensure that the result table is empty and no records can be inserted independently of the
3
drawing code. This ensures that a record with an abnormally low random number isn't
placed in the table thereby guaranteeing a permit to that record.
4) The code is reviewed to ensure that all records are treated equally in the process that assigns
random numbers to the entries. Care is given to make sure that when the random numbers
are being assigned, no records are identified to get a number other than a random number
which is generated by the system.
5) The code is then reviewed for inserts that may occur after the drawing to make sure that a
secured opportunity record is not placed in the result table after the assignment of random
numbers takes place.
This was an exhaustive and thorough review; no compliance issues were identified by the
Division in 2017.
Conducting the Draw
The actual drawing was conducted at the Division Office in Salt Lake City on February 21, 2017.
Attendees included Division staff, representatives from Sportsmen for Fish and Wildlife and the
Mule Deer Foundation, and the general public. The public is welcome to attend the drawing and
at least 3 individuals unrelated to the Division or contractors were in attendance. The draw was
then conducted by GraySky Technologies whereupon the following occurred:
1) An impromptu passphrase was given to the GraySky representative and was witnessed
written into the code prior to beginning the draw process. Later this same passphrase was
verified by all in attendance to display on the result page to ensure the code reviewed by the
Division was the actual code used during the draw.
2) The draw was then run assigning random numbers to applicants hunt choice entries and then
sorted in descending order.
3) The results of the draw were printed and immediately given to a Division representative to
ensure that there were no edits to the results table.
4) This list was then given to the Division Law Enforcement and Licensing sections to validate
eligibility before any results were posted.
5) Any applicants selected through the draw that receive multiple permits for the same species
are contacted by the Division and asked to select their preferred hunt choice. The unclaimed
permits are issued to alternates.
The passphrase was witnessed being added to the code, and the same passphrase was verified at
the conclusion of the draw. Results were instantly printed and the process to validate began
immediately.

No compliance issues were identified by the Division in 2017.

Note about Random Drawings

In any truly random drawing there always seems to be a few ?lucky? individuals. Statistically
when randomness is discussed it is always possible to view the final result and pick out certain
trends. The key to these trends is that they cannot be predicted prior to the event or drawing.
4
This is the very essence of randomness. Random is not an assurance that an event will be spread
evenly across a population, or distributed equally among participants.

There were no abnormalities observed in the 2017 drawing.
 
>What about if you get rid
>of Turkey and cougar tags
>since they're seriously skewing your
>numbers?
>
>Grizzly
>
>-----------------------------------------

Grizzly- Not as much as you might think. If the person didn't apply for any of the Lion permits, the odds to draw something drop to 11.7%. If the person didn't apply for any Lion nor Turkey, the odds to draw something drop to 9.1%
 
I doubt it's rigged. I've seen in our local banquets where 2 years in a row the same guy one the four wheelers, which was ticket draw. I've seen another guy who wins a gun and sometimes 2 guns each year and it's ticket draw. And these guys have no connection. The odds aren't as high but there is still over a thousand tickets in the barrel and it happens. Some people are just lucky.
 
I've seen one guy draw 4 out of 5 guns at a banquet. Tickets drawn and observed by a whole crew of people.

But again it doesn't matter what facts or non facts are presented. The same handful of whiners are going to whine. That is an absolute proveable standard.

Don't like the odds don't apply. I look at it as a donation every year. If you're really expecting to draw or win any lottery type draw you're almost always going to be very disappointed.

Hawkeye,
Didn't you witness the draw? Seems like you did. But maybe I'm wrong and I'll stand corrected if so.
 
LAST EDITED ON Feb-18-18 AT 10:42AM (MST)[p]I personally don't think it's rigged. The risks of being caught if anybody reviewed that code and found tampering are just too great. But with that said, the following sentence from the document you're quoting doesn't give me the warm fuzzies that it might give you...

"This audit was not performed using generally accepted auditing standards, but is an internal audit designed by the Utah Division of Wildlife Resources Administrative Services Section to ensure compliance with applicable rules and contractual obligations."

So they didn't follow standard audit procedures and it was designed by DWR-ASS?

Do we need to talk about the Legislative Audit of wolf funds? Or the RFP from two years ago? Or the head of DNR contacting partners at Hawkeye's law firm?

These groups do not illicit confidence... and for good reason.

Grizzly

-----------------------------------------

"It's time to revisit the widely accepted principle in the United States and Canada that game is a public resource."
-Don Peay, Founder of SFW, as quoted in Anchorage Daily News
 
sticksender must not have passed his statistics class in college. no way can more entries improve odds in the expo draw. each draw is independent of the other draws. there are no odds of one in ten in the expo. the program spitting out the successful applicants is not random.
 
>sticksender must not have passed his
>statistics class in college.
>no way can more entries
>improve odds in the expo
>draw. each draw is
>independent of the other draws.
>there are no odds of
>one in ten in the
>expo. the program spitting out
>the successful applicants is not
>random.


This!!! +11111!! Odds are in no way improved with additional entries.
 
>I personally don't think it's rigged.
>The risks of being caught
>if anybody reviewed that code
>and found tampering are just
>too great. But with
>that said, the following sentence
>from the document you're quoting
>doesn't give me the warm
>fuzzies that it might give
>you...
>
>"This audit was not performed using
>generally accepted auditing standards,
>but is an internal audit
>designed by the Utah Division
>of Wildlife Resources Administrative
>Services Section to ensure compliance
>with applicable rules and contractual
>obligations.
"
>
>So they didn't follow standard audit
>procedures and it was designed
>by DWR-ASS?
>
>Do we need to talk about
>the Legislative Audit of wolf
>funds? Or the RFP from
>two years ago? Or the
>head of DNR contacting partners
>at Hawkeye's law firm?
>
>These groups do not illicit confidence...
>and for good reason.
>
>Grizzly


***The way everything involving the SFW and DWR is done so shady I would have to agree to disagree with your first couple sentences. Why would there ever be a close look at how the codes, etc., are done? The SFW and DWR do whatever they feel like with no ramifications! The state audit that found a complete mess where they couldn't trace where monies went didn't lead to anything being done. The RMEF debacle showed both will do whatever the feel like to keep things the way they have been for over 10 years now and nothing could be done. SFW won't even show where all the extra money goes that they take in that isn't required to be audited as part of the Expo. It sure is a lot more than what they show is spent on the projects under the audit! Supposedly they spend 1/4 million dollars just on Expo advertisement alone. Is there anything in the audit to see where and how all the money was used under that line? I don't think so! They were even found to be using the wrong bank accounts in several instances according to the 2017 audit that was posted on here and all that was done was to tell them to correct that with no penalties whatsoever. Not even following standard auditing procedures and making up there own way of how it would be done like the statement right in the audit says is exactly the same thing they did to give the shaft to RMEF!
 
LAST EDITED ON Feb-18-18 AT 11:58AM (MST)[p]
>This!!! +11111!! Odds are in
>no way improved with additional
>entries.

I haven't checked his math, but just to make sure everybody understands...

Odds of drawing a SPECIFIC tag aren't improved with additional entries as there is no memory and no bearing from one tag to the next. But odds of drawing ANY ONE tag are improved with additional entries.

For instance, if I give you a coin and ask the odds of flipping heads, it's 50/50. Even if you had just flipped 6 straight heads; it doesn't make it more likely to be tails on the next flip.

However, if I give you 6 coins and ask the odds of flipping heads, each individual coin is 50/50, but the odds of getting AT LEAST ONE HEADS is about 98%.

Since we're not talking about drawing a specific tag, but merely 1:200 available tags, the odds of a person drawing AT LEAST ONE tag does increase with additional entries.

PS. I figured the odds of applying for the 20 best tags (Henry's, San Juan, OIL) and the math shows that spending $100 would get you 1.2% chance of drawing one of those tags.

Grizzly

-----------------------------------------

"It's time to revisit the widely accepted principle in the United States and Canada that game is a public resource."
-Don Peay, Founder of SFW, as quoted in Anchorage Daily News
 
I put in for 4 tags and that was it. Reason being it only makes my tag $20 more than what the face value is and $20 isn't a whole heck of alot to waste here and there. I do think it's odd Farrar has drawn as many as she has. But without the public seeing SFW's books you can't prove corruption. I do find it odd they don't want to open the books that makes it fishy as well. Hopefully the general draw goes well for me, fingers crossed for a big bull tag.

"We don't have a gun problem we have prescription drug problem."
 
Yes SFW Posts their Trac return just like RMEF. Yes SFW will not let an individual come in and go over their books just like RMEF will not let my accountant go to Missoula and go through there books. Reason from both groups is it costs too much money for it to happen.
So many statements being made by individuals that can not be backed up with proof yet are believed by many.
 
>grizz missed stats class too.

Your response is so devoid of an understanding of statistics that it doesn't even deserve a response... but in the interest of helping you understand, I will try again to help you out.

I stated, "if I give you 6 coins and ask the odds of flipping heads, each individual coin is 50/50, but the odds of getting AT LEAST ONE HEADS is about 98%." ***THE EXACT ODDS OF AT LEAST ONE HEADS IS 98.44%***

Increase the coins flipped to 32 coins and the odds of AT LEAST ONE HEADS: 1-2.328x10(-10) which is 4,294,967,295 in 4,294,967,296 attempts.

By flipping ONE coin you have 50% of heads. By flipping SIX coins you have 98% chance of ONE heads. By flipping 32 coins, the odds of getting heads with AT LEAST ONE coin are astronomically high.

I was clear that it doesn't increase the odds of drawing a SPECIFIC tag, but it does increase the odds of drawing ANY ONE tag.

If a person puts a ticket in only for Henrys they have about 1:10,000 chance of drawing. If they put in for 100 tags, they get the multiple of 1:10,000 and 1:4,000 and 1:5,000 and 1:400, and 1:5,600, etc... Each individual tag has unchanged odds, but the person applying has increased their odds of drawing AT LEAST ONE.

Grizzly
 
LAST EDITED ON Feb-18-18 AT 02:49PM (MST)[p]>Yes SFW Posts their Trac return
>just like RMEF. Yes
>SFW will not let an
>individual come in and go
>over their books just like
>RMEF will not let my
>accountant go to Missoula and
>go through there books.
>Reason from both groups is
>it costs too much money
>for it to happen.
> So many statements being
>made by individuals that can
>not be backed up with
>proof yet are believed by
>many.

Here you go Ken...

RMEF 2016 Tax Returns: http://www.rmef.org/Portals/0/Documents/2016_RMEF_990.pdf

RMEF 2016 Audit: http://www.rmef.org/Portals/0/Documents/2016 Audited Financial Statements.pdf

RMEF Charity Navigator Rating: https://www.charitynavigator.org/index.cfm?bay=search.summary&orgid=4406

SFW 2013 Tax Returns: http://sfw.net/data/SFW-990-2013.pdf

SFH Charity Navigator Rating: https://www.charitynavigator.org/index.cfm?bay=search.profile&ein=870575540 (EIN Number taken from tax returns above)

Where are the publicly-available audited financials and Charity Navigator rating for SFW?

Grizzly

-----------------------------------------

"It's time to revisit the widely accepted principle in the United States and Canada that game is a public resource."
-Don Peay, Founder of SFW, as quoted in Anchorage Daily News
 
M73-

Nope. I have never witnessed the draw. It is my understanding that it is open to the public but I have not attended. Even if I did attend, I am not very tech savvy and I wouldn't know what to make of watching the software program do it's thing.

-Hawkeye-
 
Go get a single quarter out of your drawer and drop it on the floor, there is a 50% it will be heads assuming it is a fair coin.

Now get 10 quarters out of your drawer... I'll bet you $100 that AT LEAST ONE of them will be heads. I don't know if it will be the quarter that represents Henry's Deer, or La Sal Elk, or San Juan Bear, or Desert Bighorn Sheep, or any other quarter... but AT LEAST ONE of the will be heads 99.902% of the time. We just increased your odds from 50% to 99.902% of the time by increasing attempts. The same rules apply to the draw, just the numbers are smaller.

Grizzly

-----------------------------------------

"It's time to revisit the widely accepted principle in the United States and Canada that game is a public resource."
-Don Peay, Founder of SFW, as quoted in Anchorage Daily News
 
Grizzly- Good posts and anyone with a logical mind will easily understand what you just typed and exactly how it applies to the scenario in question. Unfortunately this is the internet, and for every person like that, there are 3 other dudes who come out of the woodwork to argue with you. Of course they've got no clue, but again we're on the web and its a free-for-all, so what do you expect? I learned years ago it's best to just get a good chuckle out of it and move on.
 
It would be a cold day in hell before SFW saw my first penny of support from buying one of these raffle tix. However, if there's one state in the union where I wouldn't be surprised of corruption in a public draw, Utah would be it hands down. It's a part of the culture there. Not just in hunting. Well earned reputation as scam capital of the US. So it's certainly ?Let the buyer beware?.

***********************************************

http://kutv.com/news/local/allegations-of-corruption-surround-utah-hungtin-and-conservation-expo
 
See my post #27. I think the odds are quite good if you spend a G.

I eliminated Turkey, Black Bear and Cougar tags from these odds:
https://huntexpo.com/odds-at-drawing-an-expo-tag/

Summed the odds for drawing each tag and the odds of you drawing one tag were:

7.4% or 1 in 13.5

You would need to spend about $1000 on chances, but those odds are way better than 1 in 5000.

The odds of hitting one of these tags all three years in a row are pretty low though:

1 in 2500 or 0.4%.

I am not saying either way, but 1 in 2500 is way different than 1 in 1 in 125 Billion.

If there are multiple people drawing tags every single year, then the chance of that is way less likely.
 
The good thing about this is the Expo gets bigger and bigger. More and more people put in for those so called scam tags, 20,000 people alone came to the show on Saturday. More money raised for wildlife and yes it does go to wildlife, so for all of you who don't come, don't worry we didn't miss you. For those that did hope you had a great time. For those who did draw a tag, congratulations and those who didn't hopefully you draw one on the regular hunt. The Expo was fun and I enjoyed meeting many new people. All ready looking forward to next year.
 
nripepi, did you extrapolate or enter in actual data? For instance...

I did the math for the 20 units I applied for last year... including breaking it into units. The numbers below are the odds of success as a percentage, with a few unit names listed as examples...

0.009893154 (Henrys' Mountain Deer had 1:10,108 )
0.039054872 (Henry's Mountain Management Deer had 1:5121)
0.039588282
0.058088876
0.027203482
0.138944025
0.241545894
0.116099071
0.058173357
0.109829764
0.066445183
0.018271515
0.036127168
0.291167907 (Wasatch Mountain Elk Archery had 9:3091)
0.406504065
0.016162922
0.016708438
0.015691197
0.044873233
0.02268088 (Mountain Goat, Willard, Late had 1:4409)

Those equate to 1.75926% chance of me drawing AT LEAST ONE tag. I'm not going to take the time to figure all the odds for this year, but it is much more complex than many people believe.

I didn't check your math, so I'm not questioning it at all... just wondering if you did the formula long-form or extrapolated and averaged.
 
LAST EDITED ON Feb-18-18 AT 05:40PM (MST)[p]You can only buy one chance per hunt. The tags that are being drawn by the same people over and over again are not turkey or cougar tags.




LAST EDITED ON Feb-18-18 AT 05:39?PM (MST)

[font size="1" color="#FF0000"]LAST EDITED ON Feb-18-18 AT 05:38?PM (MST)[/font



"See my post #27. I think the odds are quite good if you spend a G.

I eliminated Turkey, Black Bear and Cougar tags from these odds:
https://huntexpo.com/odds-at-drawing-an-expo-tag/

Summed the odds for drawing each tag and the odds of you drawing one tag were:

7.4% or 1 in 13.5

You would need to spend about $1000 on chances, but those odds are way better than 1 in 5000.

The odds of hitting one of these tags all three years in a row are pretty low though:

1 in 2500 or 0.4%.

I am not saying either way, but 1 in 2500 is way different than 1 in 1 in 125 Billion.

If there are multiple people drawing tags every single year, then the chance of that is way less likely."
 
Just for info, one applicant can't spend 1000.00 on chances. As I posted above, a resident maxes out at 505.00 and a non-resident at 530.00. You guys are getting the number of tags available (200) confused with the number of hunts available (106).
 
I just used an excel spreadsheet, copied and pasted in the data and added up the odds for 86 tags...took out bear, cougar and Turkey as they are easier to draw and you get a % for the likelihood of drawing 1 or more tags.

86 ? $5 = $430, way less than a G.
 
Grizzly,

Thanks for doing the math. That is what I wanted to see. Those odds are similar to drawing a sheep tag in most states.

A couple other things I learned out of this post:

Don's friend does the draw and gets the contract every year
Birdman is happy to meet everyone at the show
SFW supporters need to take a math class

Carry on, nothing to see here in Utah,

Rich
 
>I just used an excel spreadsheet,
>copied and pasted in the
>data and added up the
>odds for 86 tags


Adding the percentages together is where a lot of people get confused. If it was that simple, flipping 3 coins would give you 150% of getting a heads. In reality, it's 87.5% of getting at least one heads in three attempts.

The way to do it is to take the odds of NOT drawing and multiplying it by the odds of NOT drawing the next tag and so forth. You then take that total and subtract it from 1 to get your odds of drawing.

Say you have 3 white balls and 1 red ball in a box. You have a 25% of getting a red ball on any given draw. But to find out the odds of getting red at least once in 5 draws you actually do the following...

.75x.75x.75x.75x.75 = .2373

You then do 1-.2373= 76.27% chance of getting at least one red in 5 attempts.

Grizzly
 
I just did a quick spread sheet and came out with 3.9% to get an elk or deer tag if you applied for all the deer and elk. If you applied for everything but cougar, black bear, and turkey I came up with 7.1% which is very close to the number that nripepi came up with. I could of missed something but that would be $310 for all deer and elk, and $430 for all but cougar, bear, and turkey. I did not break out the any non-res only tags.
 
LAST EDITED ON Feb-18-18 AT 10:07PM (MST)[p]Not posting this to piss anyone off.
I have 3 Brothers and my Dad that put in about $200/per person each year.

2011- Brother #1 Drew Book Cliffs Elk
2015- Brother #1 Drew Books Cliffs Buck
2016- I Drew Boulder Early Rifle
2017- Brother #1 Drew Wasatch Early Rifle
2017- Brother #2 Drew Boulder Bear

We don't know anyone. To be honest we are so unlucky in the general draw that its a shock to all of us.

Like others have said, its just another opportunity that I wont pass up. The tags are going to someone, and without your name in the pool, you aren't going to draw.

We likely will never draw another expo tag, but we will keep donating our $200. In my case its all free money after the Boulder tag.
 
LAST EDITED ON Feb-18-18 AT 11:10PM (MST)[p]Looks like many of you complaining about the astronomical odds of drawing multiple tags per year or in multiple years should at least take a basic statistics class before coming up with your crazy calculations.

So not only does Grizz understand the law, but he's also pretty good with numbers. Better have your ducks in a row if you are going to argue against him.
 
" Don PEAY doesn't represent us".

"Put on some boots and come see where it goes"

"Look how successful the expo is"

Sorry fellas I don't do math.

So I thought I'd give you the official talking point WHENEVER anyone dare ask ANYTHING of SFW.

Congrats to $FW leadership. The 9% spent on salaries got a huge boost with this year's total, enjoy your raise.


"The only thing that stops a bad guy with a gun is a good guy with a gun"
 
Being a long time life member of RMEF (since the inception) and not a member of SFW, I'm curious if SFW has a state of art beautiful headquarters like RMEF does in Missoula?
 
Funny how $fw new line isn't how good they are, its how bad RMEF is.

We will add it to there golden oldies

-Don doesn't represent us

-Come see for yourself where the money is

-We donated a million dollars to the state





"The only thing that stops a bad guy with a gun is a good guy with a gun"
 
So in the draw can you buy more then one ticket, or can you 15000 tickets. Sometimes its the more you can get your name in the hat that wins the prize.
How do you check to see if that is happening.

"I have found if you go the extra mile it's Never crowded".
>[Font][Font color = "green"]Life member of
>the MM green signature club.[font/]
 
>So in the draw can you
>buy more then one ticket,
>or can you 15000 tickets.
>Sometimes its the more you
>can get your name in
>the hat that wins the
>prize.
>How do you check to see
>if that is happening.

***One ticket per person per draw. That is why these people that are drawing every time you turn around is ridiculous. The first thing that the system should eliminate is that a person can only apply one time per hunt, but when everything is closed to inspection there is no way of knowing if even that is on the up and up. Those who say to go watch the draw itself really have no idea what they're talking about either because it's strictly a computer that has supposedly been programmed to randomly select the winners. Without an expert independent computer programmer being able to exam that program at length there is no way that just watching the thing run and then signing your name on that sheet of paper means diddly!
 
But how do you know if they are only putting in one ticket per Draw.
Maybe they know Tommy Tipton.

"I have found if you go the extra mile it's Never crowded".
>[Font][Font color = "green"]Life member of
>the MM green signature club.[font/]
 
So......a person who can afford, and does afford the governors deer and elk tags, bribes somebody so they can get their name drawn on a bookcliffs deer tag.

Yeah that sounds logical. Definitely worth the consequences if you get nailed for that.

And somebody who donates a fishing trip, wins a tag because he donated a fishing trip.
Good lord.....

I have to wonder how much the bribes are they pay.

And on top of all of that, look at the accusations some of you are throwing around. Accusing people you don't know,
Such as Heather Farrar of fraud. You guys should be a lot more careful with your mouths and what you post on a public forum.

Accusing the man whose company does the draw, of fraud.
 
LAST EDITED ON Feb-19-18 AT 12:33PM (MST)[p]>So......a person who can afford, and
>does afford the governors deer
>and elk tags, bribes somebody
>so they can get their
>name drawn on a bookcliffs
>deer tag.
>
>Yeah that sounds logical. Definitely worth
>the consequences if you get
>nailed for that.
>
>And somebody who donates a fishing
>trip, wins a tag because
>he donated a fishing trip.
>
>Good lord.....
>
>I have to wonder how much
>the bribes are they pay.
>
>
>And on top of all of
>that, look at the accusations
>some of you are throwing
>around. Accusing people you don't
>know,
>Such as Heather Farrar of fraud.
>You guys should be a
>lot more careful with your
>mouths and what you post
>on a public forum.
>
>Accusing the man whose company does
>the draw, of fraud.

I don't believe anyone has come right out and accused any particular person, including Heather, of fraud. What has been stated is that something is fishy when the same person/people get drawn multiple times when the thousands of entries for each tag make most drawing odds less than 1/2 of 1 percent. Maybe it's strictly improper programming by the guy that does it. Maybe he likes good looking blondes and Heather has nothing to do with her winning multiple times other than buying the tickets, LOL! What is being stated is that with everything else that the SFW does so secretly with the PUBLIC TRUST money being taken in every year, along with the debacle that kept RMEF from getting the tags with a bid that was so much better a year ago, who is to say that there aren't shenanigans also being pulled somehow with the draw system? For one thing, having a one individual business who just "happens" to be a friend of the Don that started all this ##### years ago that is running the drawing is enough cause to suspect that something is fishy! Opening the books along with locking the computer up as soon as the draw is completed to allow an independent audit and a close look at the program used for the draw would solve all this BS about SFW that comes up at Expo time every year!
 
>So......a person who can afford, and
>does afford the governors deer
>and elk tags, bribes somebody
>so they can get their
>name drawn on a bookcliffs
>deer tag.
>
>Yeah that sounds logical. Definitely worth
>the consequences if you get
>nailed for that.
>
>And somebody who donates a fishing
>trip, wins a tag because
>he donated a fishing trip.
>
>Good lord.....
>
>I have to wonder how much
>the bribes are they pay.
>
>
>And on top of all of
>that, look at the accusations
>some of you are throwing
>around. Accusing people you don't
>know,
>Such as Heather Farrar of fraud.
>You guys should be a
>lot more careful with your
>mouths and what you post
>on a public forum.
>
>Accusing the man whose company does
>the draw, of fraud.




Hey Doncrete!

Ya Think I'd Enhance My Odds Next Year If I Enter the Draw as bobcat Farrar?:D

I'll Bet PEAYDAY Just can't wait for this Annual Thread!
 
Bobcat Farrar has a special ring to it for sure!!

Or perhaps bobcat Denny??

Top gun, I don't know if the accusation that the guy who runs the draw is a friend of Don Peays. And neither do you. I have seen one time on here where somebody claimed that.

But other than seeing it on the net, we don't know if that's true.

I do see one commonality, you guys will take anything you want to believe as gospel so long as it fits your belief structure.
 
I don't think $FW is dumb enough to rig it.

But, I didn't think the governors sheep tag guide wouldn't know his boundaries

I didn't think a "famous" sheep guide would claim false residency

I didn't think a 'pro" someone would hack Wyoming for tags

I didn't think a TV hunter would film himself poaching.

So, my thoughts, and the reality of the "industry" of hunting don't always match.


What I do know. I'm heading to the CPA this afternoon. I will get back a complete financial report, profit loss statement, projections, etc for my business.

$FW has the same info. They could, at any point post it here, their site, everywhere and make every conspiracy theory vanish.

They are 100% the cause of all the mistrust, conspiracies, bad PR.

Me, TOPGUN, Hawkeye, etc didn't one day have a meeting and decide to make up lies about them. They, and especially their founder, LIVE in the backroom, in the dark, behind closed doors.

They cause ALL their own bad PR by doing so. They could shut it down in 10 min, today. Wonder why they don't?



"The only thing that stops a bad guy with a gun is a good guy with a gun"
 
>Bobcat Farrar has a special ring
>to it for sure!!
>
>Or perhaps bobcat Denny??
>
>Top gun, I don't know if
>the accusation that the guy
>who runs the draw is
>a friend of Don Peays.
>And neither do you. I
>have seen one time on
>here where somebody claimed that.
>
>
>But other than seeing it on
>the net, we don't know
>if that's true.
>
>I do see one commonality, you
>guys will take anything you
>want to believe as gospel
>so long as it fits
>your belief structure.


My "belief structure" is probably no different than most on here who are fed up with money being taken from the public trust the way SFW does to keep it afloat and not show where all the money actually goes. Birdman comes on here time after time and tells us how everything is on the up and up and to prove what we allege. We shouldn't have to prove a thing if it was run the way most top notch organizations are run with open books and legitimate audits so all can see where every dollar that comes in goes. We have no idea how many million dollars are actually made from the Expo and where it goes, other than what shows in the two audits required for the tags that are auctioned and raffled and those audits aren't even done by independent firms! The one audit actually says right in it that it is their own way of doing things and doesn't even meet current US audit standards! With just the small amount of money alone from each $5 ticket being sold having to actually be spent on approved wildlife related activities, along with the rest of that money and profit from entry fees, booth rental, food/beverage sales, etc., that doesn't, we have no idea how much more money could go into wildlife conservation projects, rather than into the pocket books of the higher ups. We do know that it would be millions more if RMEF had won that rigged bid debacle!

There must be an awful lot of people wearing blinders or that have no problem with the SFW even when you can see the minimal amount of money going to conservation on audited required projects compared to the profits that come in from the Expo every year and go God knows where! These threads questioning the validity of the draw are just another example of what happens when nothing involving large sums of money is done out in the open by SFW!

Now why don't you go ask Birdman why he hasn't "put up" for SFW out on the threads like grizzly did with the books and independent audit information of RMEF. Nope, Birdman has "shut up" and flown off into "never never land" because he knows it will never be done and he most likely has no access to anything of value to disprove what everyone is alarmed at.
 
Rather ironic that it is a huge moneymaker and they don't want to divulge the financials. Shoving your cranium in the sand doesn't fix anything.
 
>Rather ironic that it is a
>huge moneymaker and they don't
>want to divulge the financials.
>Shoving your cranium in the
>sand doesn't fix anything.


Doesn't take a brain surgeon to read between the lines as to where a lot of the money is going, other than conservation, when they are so quiet does it?!!!
 

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