There will be many factors that will need to be looked at this year that may influence the draw odds for 2005. More things will change the odds in the future for better or worse. Here is how I see the changes.
1. Have a late hunt for elk to increase opportunity for hunters to draw. 30% of the tags will go to this late hunt. From what I gather they expect the success rate to be lower on this hunt so they may give more tags to this hunt to achieve harvest rate they desire.
2. 5% of elk tags will go to hunters that desire to hunt all three seasons.
I don't care for this hunt, even though I would love to have the tag and opportunity to hunt all three seasons but this sounds like a rich mans hunt to me. To many of the tags have raised in cost and putting a lot of hunters in a bad situation when they can't afford to put themselves and a few kids in for these hunts. My boy is almost 13 and if he wants to put in for these LE permits he needs to get cutting more lawns to help with the cost of putting in and to also apply in another state once in a while. This five percent probably wont effect much.
3. Some changes have been made in the age class harvest objective. This may effect the number of permits as well. In some, it may increase the tags quite a bit.
4. Weather and winter mortality. After they add the data together they determine how many tags to give out. Utah is having a good winter so far for the animals. If this keeps up, animal carry over and winter survival will be high and all the water will help feed growth. This looks to be a good year for the animals.
5. The tags referred to, as the SFW tags will not be taken out until 2006. These are for the National Convention and not SFW tags. Will not effect draw in 2005.
After looking at the numbers and estimating what the future holds. These National Convention tags looks to be a win win opportunity to place a lot of money into the conservation effort and give another opportunity to draw a tag. Sure there are some areas of the deal that has upset some NR hunters and I can see their point on some of the concerns. But all in all it is a good option that will help wildlife in the end.
With this taking place in 2006, will give us a chance to see what other changes this year will do to the odds and tag numbers.
I see more tags available for 2005 elk. We all need to do what we can to help the mule deer recovery in all western states. Number of deer in Utah is not as high as they need to be but the quality has improved. Utah sheep numbers are looking good and they have just transplanted some more sheep this winter. Some real good moose are being harvested and the numbers are doing well. We need to keep the wolf out of Utah and keep other predators in check.
Well that is my 2 cents worth.
Craig
