Arizona points

M

Muskieman8837

Guest
Are preference points really worth the price? How many points do I have to have as a nonresident to draw a really good tag? I figure if I'm spending $130 a year just to recieve one point times 10 to 15 years? plus the cost of the tag once I do draw. That tag is going to cost me at least 2 to 3 thousand and 15 years of my life and that is only if they don't raise the prices. Anyone have any thoughts? Maybe it would just be easier to buy the landowner tags? guide tags? or whatever they offer and pay that price instead!
 
Muskieman,
The points are expensive but if you are serious about hnting elk in AZ, you must do it. There is no gaurantee you will draw in X amount of years. Some people say about every 7 years but since they went to online apps, the odds are worse. One thing you can do is pop for the license fee and then $5 for each species and average out the cost to you. I know it is the same $$$ amount but the rationalization feels good :)

Those of us who are in, will stay. If I wasn't in so far, I might look somewhere besides AZ. Just depends on how serious you are and how much cash you can "donate" each year.
 
"ALL" in Az,Pay to Play,but also only Bonus Points,here.Big difference from Pref Points.States that have B.P., a "Lucky" applicant can draw the very first time,some do,but not many ---also No Landowner Tags (Yet)or Guide tags.Buy Your licence,"Build and Buy",like the rest of Us.
 
I have 11 perference points as you want to call them. I lost one point by not filling my application out right, I should have 12. The 7 year thing is bull $hit. Yea, I put in for the rifle rut hunt every year and see guys that have never put in get drawn and guys that have gotten drawn 3 years in a row. So what do I do, I put in for hunts in New Mexico,Colorado & Wyoming. Some day I will get lucky and get the elk hunt I'm looking for IF I DON"T DIE BEFORE THEN. Oh by the way, we do have some of the biggest elk in North America along with New Mexico. So keep putting your money in for them perfernce points. What good it is I really don't know. Oh by the way I have 5 prefernce points for elk in Utah.
 
I'm a nonresident with 7 or 8 points this year. I apply for an archery tag every year and haven't drawn yet, but I'm thinking my lucky number should be pulled within the next 5 years.

For the money I have invested in points I couldn't even come close to purchasing a landowner tag of equal quality.

Most quality tags in Utah are going to run over $10,000.

Commissoner tags on Wyoming are likely going to run you around $10,000.

Nevada tags are going to run over $10,000.

Colorado tags in the best units will soon be in the $10,000 area.

New Mexico is probably the best value out there for a crack at a bull for the money when speaking of landowner/conservation tags-say $5000.

All of these prices are for unguided hunts-just the tag. Throw $3-$5000 ontop for a quided hunt.

Bonus points equal money well spent if you ask me.

I'm not condoning the ever growing price of hunting out west, but if you're not in the application game for lack of better words "you're screwed!"
 
Prism,
I also am a non-resident of Arizona and have 8 points for elk max for deer I am looking forward to maybe drawing in the next 5 years also.It is expensive but now that I am in I cant get out.
Good luck to you this year.
The Bird
 
It well happen just keep putting in.

I had 11pts. the first time I drew.

2pts. the next time.

This year I guess I have a big 0.
 
It pays for me (non-resident) because I hunt deer (archery only tag) every year there as well and I need the license anyway. The odds of being drawn are not terrible for bowhunters, IMO, especially if you learn other units that aren't as popular. I've been drawn 3 times (93, 99, 05) in 18 years of applying. I can handle only waiting 6 years to draw for that hunt.

BOHNTR )))---------->
 
I just ate my 9 points. It was the best hunt of my life. I only hope it doesn't take another 9 to get drawn. Best of luck to you guys.
 
It all depends on what hunts you put in for. If you put in for the early rifle hunts you very well may never draw a tag. But the archery hunts aren't too bad. Especially concidering the quality of the bulls. I just hope they don't stick all the archery tags at the end of the season like they have talked about doing. Your chance of drawing is going to go way up but the quality is going to go way down. Not to mention the success rate.
 
We have been very lucky as non res. we apply archery have been drawn on our first attempt in 2000,2001& 2005 and we would like to go every year but we know it could be a long wait keep on getting those points it will happen and it will be worth every penny you spent also when you get drawn make sure you can spend the whole season in the woods good luck
 
Apply! You never know. I pulled a Strip tag with zero last year. The hunt was hard, but amazing. I just hope it won't take me years and years for an archery elk tag.

Jason "The Big Ol' Muley"
 
You can't draw if you dont apply! I drew Arizona elk last year with 3 points. But it is my understanding it will be alot harder to draw a tag this year.
 
I did the math over on bowsite (came across as unhappy and "down - I am not) bottom line is if you start now, on average, it will take you over 15 years to pull the bottom tier hunts, longer for good hunts. It can happen sooner but it is not likely. You have to buy points to apply now, with that being the case, and credit card apps, and word getting out about AZ hunting, and 10% max cap on NR things are tough.

Here is my calcs from bowsite:

Some of the very best draw odds for a NR in AZ for elk are unit 7m (this is a bow only unit), odds here are far better then anywhere else (25% for residents). True odds are hard to calculate, but about half the apps are NR, there were 488 apps for 80 tags, if half are NR - 244 NR apps for 8 tags (8 tags is 10% - this assumes NR draw 10%, they may not so this represents a "best case" scenario). That is 30:1, ignoring points. If you take into account points you still have roughly only a 50/50 shot of drawing in 10 years - assuming you pay the $100 for points every year. Yes, that is over $1000 for 50/50 odds, not taking into account license cost and app fees, every single other bull hunt has worse odds (except one), good ones 10 times worse or more.

Do not forget starting now there are a lot of guys with more points so odds are worse still. Also max point holders get some tags so odds are worse because of that (less tags for guys with under max points).

AZ is well worth it but the days of applying and being sure of drawing a tag in under 10 years for NR bull elk in a decent area are long gone. Also the above are bow odds, rifle is a lot harder.

If you are looking for a good rifle tag you will likely be trying for 30 years minimum.

AZ is well worth it, and I apply, I just want to make it clear to everyone so they know what they are getting into, to many guys get the impression in 5-7 years they are going to get a tag which is not the case.

DonV Ohio

PS keep in mind the cost for points also gets you points for sheep & deer & lope too if you want.
 
Don,
I completely disagree with you. It is very possible, and likely that you can draw an AZ tag in less than 5-7 years. People do it all the time. Points in AZ DO NOT MATTER. They do not allow you to draw. I know at least 6 people, res and nonres, who have each had at least 3 archery bull elk tags, in prime units, in 5 years. And they keep drawing. I as a resident have over 10 points for elk and cannot get a tag. In fact, I have applied for the past 17 years and have not gotten a tag. Every year I know of someone who is a first time res and nonres applicant, who draws a prime tag, whether it be a rifle rut hunt, or archery hunt, and I still have yet to draw. The first year my wife applied she drew a prime rifle elk tag. You can look at those numbers till your eyes pop out, but in the end it is luck that prevails. I guess I don't ever have to worry about getting struck by lightning!!!!
 
It used to happen, and has happened recently because of NR not being limited to only 10%

Everyone claims this because their brothers friends neighbor drew, but check my math, it is not wrong.

One guy wins the powerbal lottery that you know does not mean your odds are still not millions to one.

Again in the past it was possibe but NOT ANY MORE.

Also please check out my post on bowsite at this location:

I think NR will no longer be able to pull tags without max pnts due to he current new 20% allocation to max point holders.

Trust me in that I am not just a casual observer making a irrational guess, I have checked this math and followed the draw odds very closely. I understand math, statistics and odds very well, I am an engineer and took a ton of statistics classes in college just for fun.

If you disagree fine, but please do not insult me and say because you friends drew a few times I am wrong.

Pick any good unit and calculate out how long it should take and post it. You will get over 20 years for a NR bow tag PERIOD. Many have questioned my math and no one has every provided anything based on the latest stats to prove me wrong, when pressed they all give up.

Again if it takes 15 years to draw the 2nd easiest unit to draw, for archery, saying you can pull a better rifle hunt sooner is just plain dumb.

Bottom line if you say a NR is likely to draw a good tag in 5-7 years you are making a flat out wrong, stupid statement.

Credit card apps and NR limitations have crippled odds to a fraction of what they were. In the past you were right, I know that. But nowadays, NO.

Seriously, pick a hunt and I will do the math, but be willing to admit you are wrong, and please back up these broad, general statements with some proof. Knowing a few guys who drew does not mean anything.

Sorry to be a little b####y but I am tired of guy making this exact statement when it is obviously no longer true.

I do not really on luck any more in the drawing then I do when hunting. I make my own luck. If you want to be lucky then only put in for the very best, early rifle hunts, why not if it is all luck?

sremin please show me with the application and tag info at the back of the rules and reg's what unit a NR can draw in 5-7 years.
 
http://www.bowsite.com/BOWSITE/TF/REGIONAL/thread.cfm?threadid=123195&MESSAGES=6&state=Az

Above is the link to AZ on bowsite with my info

Also I decide to show another unit and the odds. I picked the unit 1 rifle hunt. bull elk

Everytime there is a choice to calculate odds I am going to pick the choice that makes draw odds appear easiest to give you the benefit of the doubt.

40 permits, 9311 apps (1 & 2 choice) assuming everyone lists a second choice (many do not) 9311/2 = 4655 apps half are typically NR (more in better units but I will assume only half) so 2327 NR apps for 4 tags (assuming we draw 4). That is 581 to 1 odds. Every NR has to get a point to apply so they are going to get points right along with you, so you will likely never draw this tag in a life time.

You might draw, but I am not talking about luck, I am talking about you realistic odds of drawing and how long it will take.
 
Oh yeah, and points do not matter? Huh? You mean guys with 10 points and 10 chances are as likely to draw as guys with 1?

What about NV, points are squared, and some have 13, that is 169 chances, I suppose getting you name in the hat 169 times does not matter? It sure does unless EVERYONE else has the same number of points, which is not the case.
 
Well if you take what I said as an insult then you have problems. I was in no way insulting you. However, you are insulting me by calling me stupid, but what ever floats your boat dude. I am not saying your math is wrong. I have shown you proof. Re-read the post. I don't know just a "few" guys that have done it. It happens EVERY YEAR. I am not insulting your math, it just has no bearing on your chances to draw in AZ. If they used preference points like in CO it would be different. I am proof that points do NOT MATTER. Look at two of the above posts. One guy says he has numerous points and cannot draw, yet another says he drew a Strip tag his first year. Explain that one. What about the post where the guy averages one tag every six years. You want proof, read the posts above. Math and numbers can be associated with anything, just because you did the math, does not mean that is what it will be. The 10% NR allocation is NOT new. You start mentioning NV points, well last I checked, AZ is NOT NV so the point systems are obviously different. AZ is a lottery draw, not a statistical, play the numbers draw.
 
donv,
So what you are telling me is just throw in the towell with 9 elk points I will never draw a tag.I hope alot of non-residents will do this so I can draw some year.Until than I will never give up.If I can draw archery elk one time I promise I will never apply again.I know it will be tough to draw a tag but I say never give up.
 
DonV,
I read your posts and your math looks right. However, I think most of us realize as non-residents we are playing the lottery in a lot of the states. My philosophy is that we only go round this merry-go-round once so make the best of it. That is why I "donate" to AZ each year.

On the other hand, you raise a good point on the bowsite about only max point NR will draw tags in the future. That blows, as it is a misrepresentation by the state if your theory bears out. You aren't going to get much sympathy on the AZ forum though! :)
 
The math is correct and you are right about it becoming more difficult. People in general aren't statisticians, nor are they that educated about math. If it were the case then not so many folks would be wasting there hard earned money now would they. It's kind of like trying to explain to my wife that everytime you have a kid you've got a 50/50 chance of either a boy or a girl. Even if you have 5 girls in a row the odds of having a boy or a girl as the 6th is 50/50. It's all about the sample size when you do statistics. Now for the guy who drew out with no points it appears to throw all of the statistics and odds out the window. In fact it does not, it is just such a small sample size, and you will have this every year. Each individual does not categorically fit the statistical mold and each individual experience is different, but if you throw all the experiences together then the statistics will come out close every time. So in other words hell you've got a chance, but not a great one that's all the statistics/odds are saying.

T
 
DonV-
Congrats on being so knowledgable in math, as you have let us know many times now, and I am not disputing your numbers. But for you to say luck has nothing to do with drawing a tag, is plain wrong. Even if you have max points somewhere doesn't gaurantee you a tag. ie. 10 hunters have max points, only 9 tags are given out......someone is going to be the unlucky one (till next year that is).

Lien2
 
I was at the AZGFD public meeting in Sierra Vista last night. One thing that I haven't noticed in this discussion is that the 10% NR cap will be back in place for the Arizona 2006 draw. In the past it was applied to deer north of the canyon and elk. Now it will apply to all big game tags. I heard something earlier and forgot to ask at the meeting, but sheep might be excluded from this.

All non-resident hunters can that Taulman one more time for this!!!!!!!!!!
 
Bonus points absolutely do help applicants in the draw, both residents and NR, to say otherwise is silly. The object is to obtain a low random number in the draw. If you have 10 BP's the computer will issue you 11 random numbers, keeping your lowest number and that's the digit you roll with in the drawing.

Anyone would have to admit that having 11 rolls of dice cube to roll a "1" would be statistically better than having only one roll opportunity to roll that same "1".

Seriously, don't make it harder than it is, BP's work and the applicants' wise selection of units to apply in 1st & 2nd positions on their application will increase the opportunity to draw. That's the nugget in DonV's story for those with an ear to hear what he's saying...
 
sremin I am sorry bad day at work (really bad day) and I was a jerk.

I know guys used to draw - I know a lot too but it is not going to happen anymore.

In fact I have also determined that AZ good units will become a preference point draw for NR. I am going to start a new post showing this.

Again I am sorry, but again, odds have gone down a lot i the last 5 years and NR will not be consistently drawing in under 10 years any more.

Again guys used to - but odds then were way better, and the new 20% allocation to top point pool has a HUGE affect on NR draw, please see my new post.

Again sorry I was a jerk
 
Guys see my new AZ post, it is compicated and even gives me a headache to examine but if I am right it has a HUGE affect on NR

Also, again, I do know it was possible, even likely to draw good hunts the first year applying and in 57 years in the past, now it is different.
 
Thanks for all the replies. I guess I alway knew that I would be putting for all these bonus/preference point. It nice to see that its possible to get a good tag without lots of points. I just hope the wife doesn't look at the check book.
 
you can use whatever calculation you want, but nothing trumps the luck o' the draw. i've been applying for bighorn for over 30 years. never a tag. every year there are folks who apply for the very first time and get a permit. same thing happens with all species. a good friend got 5 bull elk rifle permits in 7 years. the entire time he was doing this i had max points and never drew. i finally drew a 2nd choice late bull permit 6 years ago, after a long drought, but before that i got drawn a lot. got 4 archery bull tags in a row once. i've had one pronghorn permit. took me 26 years to get that and that was 12 years ago. i know folks who've had 3 rifle permits in that time. as long as there isn't a system that gives true preference to max point holders, is still just the luck o' the draw. like it really oughta be.
 
I just finished reading all the posts in this thread. The statistics, the logic, the bickering and the bull**it. I think I earned another point!
 
FYI there is now a lot of info on bowsite, first AZ F&G employees have been giving out false info - each and every unit has max pnts tags and they are for whoever has max pnts and applies for that unit, so if the guy with the most points has only 5 then so be it. It does not go by the most points anyone can have, only the most points applicants have that applied for that hunt, this has been verified by people in the draw right up the guy in charge of the draw, who believes my theory is correct.

In summary, since half the apps are NR and NR get up to 10% of tags, as a percentage NR are drawing tags 10 times less often. So clearly NR will be building points faster, and in years to come have more pnts then res. All that then has to happen is half the max pnt holders for a given hunt that are drawn are NR. If this occurs the NR will hit their 10% quota and there are no NR tags possible for the remaining 80% of tags going to anyone with any number of points. Thus only max pnt holders in any given hunt (NR) will be drawing tags. This will not happen 100% of the time but it will happen a lot.

I was told that when the quotas were gone NR drew most of the max pnts tags, this proves my theory.

Please check out bowsite under main forum and elk hunting.
 
DonV -
With all due respect, why do you insist on beating this to death. Both here and on Bowsite, you have driven this into the ground and then some. Are trying to impress everyone?
We get your "point", now move on!

Lien2
 
Most guys who apply have no clue about this and there are a ton of app services taking $50 or $100, then they pay AZ $100 thinking they have a chance at a premium rifle tag, when in fact they have little to no chance. Many do not plan to stick around in the draw for 20 years so they are wasting there $$$ and have no idea this is the case. It is not fair to them.

I am also hoping someone finds info to prove me wrong.

Also I love math and discussing it, so I do it a lot.
 
Don, I see your point. But let's look at it a different way. What you are saying will happen, will happen in mainly the oversubscribed premium type hunts. If you leave the max pool where it is today the odds are actually better for a nonresident to draw in that pool because there are fewer applications. If you take them out of there and throw them into the general pool the odds just got much worse. If you decrease the amount of the max point pool you may take some guy out of a hunt that has paid his dues and throw his chances out the door. If they are making application on one of those rifle rut tag hunts and such where some resident's have never been drawn in their lifetime are you doing anybody any favors by wanting to reduce his chances? They are almost like sheep tags anyway and if they select another unit with better odds their chance to draw goes up. It's a double edged sword at best. I'm sure when an applicant looks at the odds for that type of hunt he knows that it's along shot at best but if you go into the general pool it just got lot longer.
 
"since half the apps are NR"

I don't think this statement is accurate.

The numbers I have seen show NR apps to be in the 35-40% range for 2 or 3 of the most popular hunts and in the 20's for many of the rest.

Do you have any numbers to show otherwise?
neb
 
Hello to all... I am a new user, and I could'nt help but read all of the reponses to Arizona points. I am a native to Arizona, and live for the month of September-Drawn or not Drawn I am out there in my favorite Unit. I have not been drawn since 1997 which was archery, and I currently have 9 bonus points. I put in for the same unit every year with a friend from Oregon. He and his father also have not been drawn since '97. I did get drawn for the strip with no points however.... In 2004. There are a few well known units, but I can tell you there are a lot of not so well known units that can, have and will produce bulls over 350. After I use these points-I am going to start putting in for some other not so well known units. Just wanted to let you know its hard for residents to get drawn also. This year my friend from Oregon is going to buy the bonus point only--we have not had rain here for 115 days and counting... Me ... I'm tryin no matter what!!
 
It's shaping up to be a tough drought year here in AZ, so I'm sure to draw as my only other elk tags have come during the drought years of 1996 & 1999.
 
As for me saying half the apps are NR, I have heard this but not verified it, even if only 25% are my theory will still come into play - it will just take a lot longer to kick in.

I am not complaining about the system, I think I like it, if my theory happens in 10 years and becomes widespread I think they should only allow 20% of NR to draw max pnt tags, if they do not and everyone learns about what is going on many will not apply and AZ will loose a lot of app $$$$.
 
AZ will definitely loose my money. I won't bother to apply after reading all of the above. At 64 years I might as well face the fact that with 0 points, I will never get drawn. Downright depressing! If I were a drinking man, I'd have another beer.
 
I do not understand any of this- still ! I am a resident,
(38 years) the only year I did not draw an arizona deer tag was 2000. I drew from 1977-2005- minus that one year. I draw javelina tags every single year 1977-2005. I have drawn elk rifle tags for 7 straight years- cow elk- in the late season- I have yet to shoot my gun one time at an elk, and only saw my first live cow elk in 2004 my 6th year, but still. I think I can honestly tell you all this. I have NEVER even applied for any high demand/super duper trophy units in my life. I pick the ones I always go to, and alot of people dont go there. I think if you nonresidents ever decide to go deer/elk/whatever hunting in less popular units then you will hunt MORE. I apply here in these off the beaten path units because I want to hunt- I could give a squat if it is a cow elk instead of a bull elk- I want to kill an elk and camp out in the pine trees for 10 days. I do however want to kill an antelope in arizona and I apply every year in a unit that only has 4 tags anyway- I have 7 points for antelope. another thing about arizona and our point system is this, I have a permanent bonus point for ALL species because I took the hunters safety course- unless you take the hunters safety course I will always have more points than you will resident or nonresident- I will not ever lose my permanent bonus point even if/when I do draw a tag, if we both have 4 points for elk, and we both draw elk- the next year when I apply I will have 1 point already and you will have zero- if we both do not draw then I will have two and you'll have one. this is another thing. arizona began the loyalty bonus point this year also- it is also a permanent point? if you continue to apply for the same genus/species for 5 straight years in a row- you get a bonus point for that animal. if I keep applying for deer, any unit, but still rifle deer for 5 years I will have another point. for antelope actually right now I have 7 points for 7 years of NOT getting that tag. I also have my one hunters safety course point, and now my one loyalty point. so this fall when I apply for the buck antelope hunt in unit 10- I have 9 bonus points to put in the drawing. I know it is all luck- but if I have one or two more points than you, say 9 for this year- I should have more luck than the guy who only has 7 points for this year- right ????? now all of us can get the same points- it is not resident vs. non resident. anyone can take the hunters safety course and get that permanent point. anyone can keep applying for the 5 years for whatever species and get the loyalty point. I think even with luck involved I would rather have as many points as I can get ! also if you just buy the point, then you can buy landowners vouchers for deer, elk, and antelope in the next state over. arizona has NO landowners anything, they have NO tresspass tags, guide allotment, nothing extra at all but the drawings- and god forbid I hope it stays that way- if arizona ever gets landowners tags/vouchers, guide allotments, etc- then you will not think a 100 dollar bonus point will be expensive. there will only be the rich folks that will be able to hunt if tags ever get to be sold off- look at the above post about how much money tags cost in nm when you just buy them- unguided even- 5k-10k + no one will be able to afford that. and for the record that george taulman loser bitched and took us to court when nonresidents had about what 8-12% nonresident quota something- now you will only EVER have 10% that guy should get a thank you card from all of us- lol. I know I wont be able to draw an antelope tag in arizona, so each year I look for landowners vouchers for antelope in new mexico, or colorado, heck wyoming has tags leftover AFTER the drawings. deer and antelope tags remain after wyoming has thier drawings- go there after you buy the point here ! I cant tell you what to do and I am not a math whiz- duh !! but I enter the drawing every year and I try for whatever extra points I can get to have the best odds/luck for the drawing. if you dont enter you will not draw, if you enter for 4 years and dont enter the 5th year- you will not get the loyalty point, no hunters safety course- no bonus point, no 100 dollars- no bonus point. #####- just get the points and see what happens, then go hunting in another state that has more animals anyway- nm/wy/co/mt/etc... M WAITE, AZ.
 
hunterman67, AZ is a great place to hunt, and well worth the wait.

I do not apply for top high demand hunts either, except sometimes as a first choice only. I also apply bow to increase my odds. $100 just to apply is a little pricey, would you pay that?

Also I am not willing to pay $100 to apply, plus the tag cost, then take a huge part of my 2 weeks vacation a year and drive from Ohio to AZ to hunt cow elk. I am not a trophy hunter but I am also not going through all that to hunt cow elk. Would you spend $1000 and take a week off to hunt cow elk 1,200 miles away? Just keep in mind it is different for NR.
 
This is from Marvin (aka stickflinger) from the AZ portion of bowsite, seems some units have already gone to my theory:

Now DonV,

In the most popular hunts in 2005, non-residents could not draw a tag unless they drew it in the max point round. You are correct, some of them are already converted to a preference point system, so to speak. Keep in mind there were no caps on NRs in 2005, so not sure how putting the cap back will help or hurt that situation in the next year, but I would think it would only be worse. I'll have to give it some thought.

In one of the most popular archery bull hunts in 2005 (I only had time to ask for and receive the info on one unit), 40% of the applicants were NR. 80% of the permits issued in the bonus point round went to NR. Therefore, unless I'm mistaken, I don't believe there would be a possibility of drawing a permit in that hunt with a 20% pass percentage, and a 10% NR cap. All the early rifle hunts are probably worse than that, so they probably all are effectively on a preference point system now as well as many of the top archery bull hunts. Hope that helps, although not great news for NRs.

Marvin
 
you know I am not picky don- and I do take a week off and go hunt cow elk- but the point here is don- I am hunting and others are sitting around drinking thier liberal california whine writing about NOT hunting ! I do not apply for high value/high demand/quality hunts in ANY state. I apply in 3 states don so I am also a nonresident. this is the thing though, other states have more animals that arizona does, new mexico and wyoming have more antelope than arizona EVER will- so there system is different, wyoming has 50 times more MULE DEER than arizona does- thier systems different. why not go hunt there ? it is closer than arizona is and they have more animals. have fun !!
M WAITE, AZ.
 

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