Do I have a chance?

SWINGBOW

Member
Messages
7
I only have 2 preference points in Arizona for elk. I plan on making my annual donation to them this year and every year until I finaly draw. I was just wondering if I should even be exited about it or do I have alot more years to wait. Also is there any info available on what units I have a chance to draw an archery bull tag in with so few points? Does it help or hurt you to apply as a group if you all have the same amount of points? Any thoughts?
 
In a nutshell, you have a slim chance at the less popular units, but no chance at the 5 or 6 most popular units.
If you want a detailed explanation, go the the "General Hunting" confrance, and read the thread "NR don't apply in Az" by Don Martin. I only have 1 point this year, and I'm excited.
As far as what unit, go to the Az game & fish web site and find the drawing odds from last year. Find a unit with over 15% chance and you should be safe.
 
try bow for way better odds and avoid any great units, also do not apply with anyone, really helps odds to be alone. If you pick rifle and apply with partner even in the worst unit your odds will end up being 100's:1
 
I guess we have been very lucky we have drawn bull tags 3 times since 2000 00-01-05 (00-01 with no bonus points)we really have no chance of drawing this year if you listen to everybody talk about it the only way you have no chance is if you don't apply our 05 draw was a higher demand unit and yes its that time of year to start getting excited. Good Luck
 
I don't know if I agree with everyone based on information I was given from the G&F draw department. The information I was given says you still have a chance no matter how many bonus points you have, even in the best units. Nobody can say for certain what will happen with this years draw, there is speculation, and extreme certainty by some folks that you will not draw for 15 years. At least. However, AZ will not allow that to continue, unless they go to a preference point system. AZ's system has been screwed up for the last couple years and will remain so for another one or two. Just remember, anything can and does happen. So yeah you should get excited.
 
First of all, AZ has the best system IMO. It clearly gives those who haven't drawn for a while more opportunity to draw over those who have had a tag recently. There has been a huge crying game by non-residents who say it's unfair because they don't have max points and they have no chance of drawing these truly premium hunts in great units. So what! Those who have been applying for 10-15 years without a tag deserve to draw in the 20% max point pool. My best advice to you, because the odds are greatest, is to apply for late rifle in the not so popular units. the most popular units are 9,10,1,8 etc. Your odds are actually better at getting a late rifle tag than archery (especially with only 2 pts.) I'm a resident and have 8 pts, but I probably still won't draw. So, I'll try again next year.
 
If the system gets clogged by last minute applicants and causes disruptions, it will be extended another day or two.
 

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