TRUTH ABOUT AZ. B.P.'S

C

CDN

Guest
Everybody has different ideas about the way Bp's help you or to some to mean nothing. I will try to explain how it works as best I can. There is 3 parts to the draw for each species. For this explanation let's use elk. (1) Assign random#'s to every one that applied for elk. Take me for example, I have 11 bp's(including hunter ed & loyalty pt.) Therefore I will be assigned 12 total random #'s. 11bp's + 1 application= 12. At this point the computer gives everyone their random #'s. The computer then takes every ones LOWEST RANDOM # and puts them into numerical order. Then the computer takes the appicants with the most bp's(20%) and distributes the tags accordingly. (2) The computer at this point reassigns everyone in the elk draw new random #'s and looks at everyone's 1st and 2nd choices. When all those tags are filled the computer takes all of those still left and starts all over. (3) The computer reassigns everyone that has not been drawn a new random #'s and and checks your 3rd,4th,5th choices and distributes tags accordingly. If you have not been drawn at this point the computer assigns another bp. This method has been in place since it's inception. Because I have 1 application and 11 bp's does no give me "12 names in the hat" so to speak. This is also why I know people that have drawn the 2 of the best archery elk hunts in the state 2 yars in a row. In 2006 they had 11 bp's and 2007 they had 2bp's(1hunter ed. &1 loyalty). This is still very much a game of chance. I wrote this to put speculation of bp's to bed. Good luck to all that drew and to those that will draw for deer and sheep soon. CDN
 
Arizona chooses to do it this way and many people like having a chance to draw each year, rather than go to preference points. Non-residents are basically on a preference point system for the deer units north of the ditch. They will always have to have max points for the late hunts until something changes. The early rifle bull is the same way for non-residents. Personally I like the current system mainly because it has always been this way, and it gives residents with any number of points a chance to draw (which adds to the excitement come draw time). My opinion may change if it were to go to a preference points system depending on how many years it may take to draw a unit. We won't know that until it happens though, and by then it will be too late to change it back to the current draw system. Until then we will always have the lucky few who draw consecutive years in great units..
 
I can never understand why Az. doesn't seperate the non-res. and res. into different draws.

Residents competing with residents and non-residents competing against non-residents for the tags....

Other than that it is just luck of the draw!

No luck here this year!

Robb
 
I too wish AZ seperated NR draw, I think they do not because sometimes residents draw more then 90% of the tags.
 
Actually less than 15% of all the hunts in AZ have more than 10% of the applicants being non residents. If they seperated them then the NR's would have a better chance of drawing alot of tags. Of course most NR's only want the trophy hunts so they could go through and sort them out.
 
CDN,
I think you contradicted yourself. You said I have 12 numbers assigned, then you said,"does not give me 12 names in the hat. Huh? Clarification please.
Archerman - Archery hunting addict!
 
Sounds pretty close to how I understand it as well. I was misinformed on how the new system works earlier this year. Someone mentioned on another site that a non-res drew a premium tag w/o being in the max pt pool. The way I understood it (previously), this would have been impossible(I didn't know only 10% of the tags in the bonus point pass could go to non-res). I called AZGFD and this is what they told me.

Basically, there are two passes of tag drawings for each unit(hunt specific). The first pass is reserved for those in the max point pool (20% of tags reserved for this drawing). Then there is another pass for the remaining 80% of the tags, where every bonus point you have will give you another chance in the drawing. No more than 10% of the tags in each drawing will go to non-residents.

Say, for example, there's 100 tags available on a particular unit. There would first be a drawing for the max point holders (20 tags reserved for the drawing). Since only 10% of the tags will go to non-residents in this drawing, only 2 of these max point tags will go to non-residents. Following the max point drawing, there will be another drawing for the remaining 80 tags. 10% of these tags will go to non-residents. This means that 8 out of 100 tags are available to non-residents, regardless of their bonus point status. Those w/ more bonus points will still have a better chance of drawing, however it is possible to draw a tag as a non-resident w/o any bonus points.

For me to be completely satisfied that this is the "way things are", I'd have to talk to the individual that is actually running the drawing. However, the lady I talked to at AZGFD seemed to be more informed about the drawing process than anyone else I had talked with.
 
I was speaking metaphorically. It means that the G&F only gives you one entry(lowest random #) in the draw. Not 12, like commonly thought. I would'nt mind it at all if they would allow me 12 random #'s for elk. I hope my explanation helps. Thanks, CDN
 
The only real difference in our explanation are I 've added the third pass through. When there are enough tags to make it to the third round they look at everyone's #3,#4,#5 choices. If there are tags remaining from this third round the tags go into the left-over, first come,first served list in which the drawing is held later. The other difference is I detailed exactly what the G&F does with your bonus points. My expeience in the draw(21years) and numerous consistant conversations with everyone from officer's, draw deparment staff, customer service, and even the current Director himself lead me to believe this is accurate. Again, just wrote to help clear up the various theories out there. Thanks,CDN
 
CDM: Good job on the explanation.

Here is a good one. A guy from CA applied for antelope this year in AZ. Had never applied before and had no bonus points.

He drew his SECOND choice, a muzzleloader tag in Unit 18A.

How?

Well there were NO non-residents who had max bonus points (18) for antelope this year. There were however 50 AZ residents who did.

So after they passed out 20% of the tags available to those in the max pool, they went back and threw everyone ( resident and non-resident) alike into the regular draw.

Since no NR's had been drawn up to this point, he must have got a very low number, as there was just 1 NR tag that COULD have been pulled (10% NR rule and there are just 10 tags in this hunt).

That's the beauty of the AZ system.

I wonder how many sportsmen (resident and non-resident alike) know that the 10% limitation on elk does NOT apply to those ANY elk hunts? Applies only to bull hunts. Check it out..it's true.

Don Martin
 
I have been trying to keep up with all of this but I'm having a hard time doing so. Most people say I have no chance of drawing a Strip tag with only 9 points, 10 being the max. They are telling me that all the Non-res tags are gone with the 20% max point rule in place. I guess Non-res apps have a bunch more max point holders then res and this equates to non-res drawing more of the 20% max point tags. (I hope that makes sence)

If the draws are truelly the way Weaver stated then I should have a chance to draw the tag with less then max points. So please let me know can I draw the tag with less then max points or am I just $%^& out of luck.

Thanks guys for any input,
IB
 
LAST EDITED ON Mar-29-07 AT 09:20AM (MST)[p]"Say, for example, there's 100 tags available on a particular unit. There would first be a drawing for the max point holders (20 tags reserved for the drawing). Since only 10% of the tags will go to non-residents in this drawing, only 2 of these max point tags will go to non-residents. Following the max point drawing, there will be another drawing for the remaining 80 tags. 10% of these tags will go to non-residents. This means that 8 out of 100 tags are available to non-residents, regardless of their bonus point status. Those w/ more bonus points will still have a better chance of drawing, however it is possible to draw a tag as a non-resident w/o any bonus points."


I was told by several people that non residents do draw all the available tags for the premier units in the 20% pool draw because they are the ones with most bonus points. This leaves zero tags for the remaining non res, hunters in the 80% pooldrawing.

I don't think it's correct that only 2 tags would be available in the 20% pool by your emaple above.
All Non Res.tags (10)are available and are taken in the 20% pool or we would be hearing about Non Res. hunters drawing tags with less than max points for those hunts and that isn't happening.
 
IB:

You don't have any chance at a 13B deer tag if you aren't in the max bonus point pool.

Here's why I say that.

There were 75 tags issued for this unit in 2006. With the 20% pass rule, 15 of those tags went out to those with the max bonus points (10 BP's 2006 number). There were 116 resident and 197 non-residents who were in this pool.

Under the 10% NR rule, that would mean that only 7.5 tags (seven actually, rounds down) could go to non-residents.

Last year, those 7 tags ALL went out in the 20% pass pool.

None were left over to be drawn in the regular draw. Happens every year, and will continue to happen every year. That NR pool is actually going UP as more people realize that without the AZ Hunter ED class they are always going to be one point shy and can't draw the premium deer/elk tags without it.

The last supplemental Arizona Hunter Ed class (NR) that my team taught in January had almost 60 NR's in that class. We're doing another class next month and there are at least than many already signed up for it. A survey of those taking the class revealed that almost half of those who take this class do it because it puts them in the max bonus point pool for deer.

Here is the good news. If you are one point shy, then you probably don't have AZ Hunter Ed and you need to come and take this class. That way you'll be in the max pool before this year's deer draw.

Anyway, that's the way it is working at this time.

Not a perfect system for sure and I'm sure G&F knows they have a lot of unhappy NR sportsmen out there.

I ran the list in 2006 for ALL the premium deer hunts north of the Colorado River for NR's. There was only one hunt (early Kaibab (west), that could be drawn by NR's unless you had max bonus points. ALL of the deer tags that went to NR's had MAX bonus points!

Don't see any reason why history won't repeat itself again this year for those premium draws.

I know that at least in theory there could be the chance that not all the tags on the Strip would go in the 20% pass draw. However, it hasn't happened yet and I don't expect it to happen at all, especially given the fact that the numbers of of max NR bonus point holders for deer is still going UP!

There are other decent deer hunts all over the state that NR's can apply for and draw.

Its just that those who are locked in on units north of the Ditch need to understand how the game is being played.

Don Martin
 
Don,

If all the non-res tags went in the 20% pass, then it sounds like the system is as I originally thought (same as excaliber's understanding of it). Whatever it is, it would be a good idea to get everyone on the same page. NM has a write-up on their website describing exactly how the draw works in their state. Might be a good idea to have AZGFD do the same. Kinda frustarating as a hunter to get two different definitions of how the drawing works. It makes a huge difference to me as a non-res (determines whether I actually put in for the hunt or just a BP).

Our group was signed up to take your class in Kingman on the 28th(yes, it was just for the point). I was bummed to hear that is was cancelled....errr....there were no places to stay. Hopefully we can make it down w/n the next couple years.

Brian Olson
 
Don and others,

Thanks for the detailed explaination. That is exactly how I was told the draw was conducted. The bummer thing about the whole deal is that I have the hunter ed point and took the clase the first year it was available. So I had two years to draw it before the 20% rule went into affect. Now I just need to apply and hope that G&F changes the ruling.

Thanks again,
IB
 
LAST EDITED ON Mar-30-07 AT 04:40PM (MST)[p]Here is an article from the az game and fish hunting highlights that they put out on how the draw works. If you go to their website type in how the draw works in the search box its the first things that comes up.

http://www.azgfd.gov/h_f/highlights/highlights_0606.html

here is the portion from the news letter.

How the draw works

Within weeks after deadline day, the draw is run by computer. There are actually three separate passes made during a drawing. The first is for hunters with maximum bonus points, the second is the ?regular pass? for first and second choices, and the third is for third, fourth and fifth choices. Each application is randomly assigned a number. You also receive an additional random number for each of your bonus points for that particular genus (bonus points for group applications are averaged). The lowest of all your random numbers is the one assigned to your application for that genus for the draw. The lower your random number, the better your chances are of getting the hunt you want.

For the first pass, the computer sets aside 20 percent of the available permits for each genus for applicants with maximum bonus points. It groups the applications by the number of bonus points they have (for example, all applications with 17 bonus points go into one group, those with 16 go in the next, etc.), and then sorts them by random number within the bonus point groupings.

As each application is read within each bonus point grouping, the first and then second hunt choices are checked to see if there are any permits available for those hunts as part of the 20 percent bonus point allotment. If there are enough permits available for each applicant on the application without exceeding the 20 percent allotment (and without exceeding the 10 percent nonresident cap), the permits are issued to the applicants. If not, the next application is read and the first and second hunt choices are checked again. This continues until the entire application file has been read or all tags have been issued, whichever comes first. Any unissued permits from this first pass will be returned to the available permits for each hunt. The draw then moves to the second pass.

In the second pass, all applications, including those unsuccessful in the bonus point pass, are assigned new random numbers and sorted in random number sequence within genus. The first application--the one with the lowest random number--is read, checking the first and then second hunt choices for available permits. If there are enough permits available for either of the choices for each applicant on the application, without exceeding the 10 percent nonresident cap, the permits are issued. The application with the next lowest random number is then checked for available permits, and this continues until the entire file is read.

In the third pass, all applications unsuccessful for their first and second choices are assigned new random numbers. They are once again sorted by random number within genus, and each application is then read, checking the third, fourth and fifth hunt choices for available permits for all applicants on each application. When permits are available for each one of the three choices without exceeding the 10 percent nonresident cap, they are issued to the applicants.

After the entire draw is completed, applicants who submitted valid applications are awarded an additional bonus point for each genus for which they were unsuccessful. The bonus points for each successful applicant are zeroed out for the genus for which they were issued a permit (with the exception of the permanent hunter education or loyalty bonus points, which remain intact).
 
There is always a chance that not all non resident tags would go in the 20% pass let say by some chance residents drew all the tags in the 20% pass because they all recieved the lowest random number. Then the 10% non resident tags would still be available in the second pass. Just because it hasn't happened that there weren't any non resident tags left over in the second pass doesn't mean it couldn't happen. Its just a very very small it could happen.
 
Yes this is how it supposed to work, but they do screw it on occasion. A few years back on a spring draw I was drawn for my third choice ham hunt, but there were leftover tags for my first choice. How does that happen. This year both my parents finally drew an archery bull tag. We always put in seperate hoping that one of us will get drawn, what is wierd is that my dads tag was #24 and my moms was #25. Im not complaining but that is one huge coincidence. The Arizona draw gets screwed up to many times. When I finally drew my archery 9 tag a few years back, I met some guys from North Dakota that were drawn. This was there first attempt at any tag in Az. That dosn't make any sense to me.
 
>Yes this is how it supposed
>to work, but they do
>screw it on occasion.
>A few years back on
>a spring draw I was
>drawn for my third choice
>ham hunt, but there were
>leftover tags for my first
>choice. How does that
>happen. This year both
>my parents finally drew an
>archery bull tag. We
>always put in seperate hoping
>that one of us will
>get drawn, what is wierd
>is that my dads tag
>was #24 and my moms
>was #25. Im not
>complaining but that is one
>huge coincidence. The Arizona
>draw gets screwed up to
>many times. When I
>finally drew my archery 9
>tag a few years back,
>I met some guys from
>North Dakota that were drawn.
> This was there first
>attempt at any tag in
>Az. That dosn't make
>any sense to me.

Those guys drew their tags before the new 20% bonus pool system was in place. I can't wait to see the points breakdown for AZ for this year when it come out.
 
Powerwagon,
Regarding the leftover tags, they may have resulted when persons drawn for that hunt had their card declined. Those tags became available through the leftovers.

RR
 
Weavervillian and Don Martin, read HuntingCrazy's post, he is correct and you both are mistaken. Maybe last year the draw just happened to work so that you had a 0% chance at that strip tag AFTER the 20% max bonus point draw pass (mid-draw), but this chance was not 0% before the draw began, although maybe it was very small.

There is a chance at the strip tag or any tag in AZ for ANY nonresident no matter how many BP's, as long as there are enough resident applicants to draw MORE than 10% of the tags in the max bonus point pass. If this happens, then at least one tag will go into the 80% pass, where any NR can draw the tag.

In your strip example, as long as there are 9 residents in the max bonus point pool, then all 9 CAN POSSIBLY draw more than half of the 15 tags that go in the max BP pool, leaving 1 tag to Possibly go in the 80% pass for ANY nonresident. This is very unlikely, but the chance exists. The odds are not 0% as long as there is sufficient # of resident max bonus point holders

In your same strip example, Weavervillian is hoping that 9 of these tags go to the 100+ resident applicants in the max BP pool which is not too unlikely to occur. Then he has a chance at the strip tag.

In another extreme example, I state that the chance exists that ALL strip tags will go to residents in a given year, as long as at least 15 residents have max bonus points! This is even less likely, but there is a chance.

Odds are odds, and cannot be computed mid-draw or based on last years results. Last years results are only a prediction of what will occur, not the odds for next year's draw nor the odds before the draw begins.
 

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