The amount of daylight is what affects the rut. You will hear alot of people say that the weather has alot to do with it, but the rut will go on regardless of the weather. Weather changes (colder, snow, etc...) will only make the rut more visable to you and me, i.e. better hunting. As for your other question about the location of the animals: I think you need to be a little clearer as to "where the elk are now", if you are talking about low elevation valleys/medows -possibly, but if you are talking about above tree line - probably not. I am not an expert, just my my 2 cents. good luck.