Hello all, new to MM and just looking for some opinions. Its that time of year to put in for utahs big game draw and im really considering putting in for the new central mountains mid season rifle tag and just curious if you guys think Its worth 14 points or should i wait a couple years for an early rifle tag. Ive hunted spikes a few times on the manti and have always seen a couple good bulls while hunting spikes and have a pretty good idea where to hunt come early oct. What would You guys do?
Manti mid season rifle
- Thread starter Bar3006
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BuglesNGrunts
Member
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I hunted the central mant on the muzzy season last year and had a great time. The animals seemed to be moving out of the rut towards the end of the muzzy hunt but there were still good bulls around. Looking at the draw odds for last year, you actually have a good chance of drawing the early rifle tag which is the tag to have on this unit. If I play the game of "If they were my points" I would hold out for the early rifle! Hope this helps!
Hunt4Elk6x6
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I'm kind of in the same boat with 13 points. If it were me, I'd probably hold out for the early hunt. Your chances go up significantly at 15 points. However, if you have had success consistently finding elk and decent bulls during the other hunt and feel comfortable with it, by all means go for it. It sounds like you know where to go. Good luck!
Vanilla
Long Time Member
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A couple things to consider for this tag based upon the comments:
1- There are 99 people left from last year's early rifle draw that still have more points than you do. There are also 80 that have the same amount of points as you do. At 67 bonus point tags, you are not guaranteed a tag this year, with pretty good odds in 2018, and guaranteed in 2019, if things stayed exactly the same. But...
2- The creation of the middle rifle season will take tags out of both the early and the late rifle pools, but we don't know exactly how many. My guess is the most of them come out of the early pool. So there will not be 67 bonus tags available this year for the early, which puts your guaranteed draw time likely from 2019 to 2020. (With still good chances of drawing next year or 2019, but not guaranteed.) Of course, there is simply no way to know for sure until the tag numbers come out and also the first couple rounds of draws go through so you know how many points it will take to draw the middle rifle tag. But you have to keep those things in mind, in my opinion.
All that said, you are familiar with the area, have seen good bulls during that time frame, and are confident you know where the big bulls go come October. That sounds like a recipe for a great hunt to me! If you hunt this year instead of waiting 3-4 years, that means you are back in the elk pool after your waiting period quicker. And that might be enough to tip the scales for me. Of course, I'd rather hunt the early tag, but only you can decide if you want to hunt this year or wait 2-4 more.
1- There are 99 people left from last year's early rifle draw that still have more points than you do. There are also 80 that have the same amount of points as you do. At 67 bonus point tags, you are not guaranteed a tag this year, with pretty good odds in 2018, and guaranteed in 2019, if things stayed exactly the same. But...
2- The creation of the middle rifle season will take tags out of both the early and the late rifle pools, but we don't know exactly how many. My guess is the most of them come out of the early pool. So there will not be 67 bonus tags available this year for the early, which puts your guaranteed draw time likely from 2019 to 2020. (With still good chances of drawing next year or 2019, but not guaranteed.) Of course, there is simply no way to know for sure until the tag numbers come out and also the first couple rounds of draws go through so you know how many points it will take to draw the middle rifle tag. But you have to keep those things in mind, in my opinion.
All that said, you are familiar with the area, have seen good bulls during that time frame, and are confident you know where the big bulls go come October. That sounds like a recipe for a great hunt to me! If you hunt this year instead of waiting 3-4 years, that means you are back in the elk pool after your waiting period quicker. And that might be enough to tip the scales for me. Of course, I'd rather hunt the early tag, but only you can decide if you want to hunt this year or wait 2-4 more.
Thanks for the quick response and info guys. Im thinking i might just flip a coin when it comes time to apply. I think both hunts have there pros and cons and just cant decide if i wanna wait it out for the early hunt with less hunters or get the mid season tag with the longer hunt dates but also would be hunting with all the spike and cow hunters but come mid week of the hunt most have already gone home.
osu92
Active Member
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Sitting at 12 points, what Vanilla posted weighs heavily on my mind. At 46 years old, I'm hoping to be able to draw a couple Utah tags in my lifetime, but if I wait for the early or even middle season tags, it might be another 10 years before I get that first tag. So I'm leaning hard towards the late tag and hoping that a ton of hard work will turn up a decent bull. Then I'll get back in line and see what happens the next go around.
ElkManDan
Active Member
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I have spent 3 of the last 4 archery seasons on the Manti unit and I have hunted cow elk there on Manti 3 times during that mid season timeframe as well.
During that mid season, between the spike hunters and cow elk hunters, you will have a couple thousand more tags out there for the same time frame. During the early rifle season you only have the 130ish other bull elk tag holders out there.
If you have 14 points right now you should have about a 50% of drawing next year with 15 points and should be guaranteed with 16 points the year after that. If it were me I'd hold out for the early tag. That early rifle season is the best hunt there is. The Archery hunters have thousands of deer hunters and spike and cow archery hunters to contend with. Muzzleloader hunters have the muzzleloader deer hunters out there, the early rifle hunters have no one else out hunting during that time.
During that mid season, between the spike hunters and cow elk hunters, you will have a couple thousand more tags out there for the same time frame. During the early rifle season you only have the 130ish other bull elk tag holders out there.
If you have 14 points right now you should have about a 50% of drawing next year with 15 points and should be guaranteed with 16 points the year after that. If it were me I'd hold out for the early tag. That early rifle season is the best hunt there is. The Archery hunters have thousands of deer hunters and spike and cow archery hunters to contend with. Muzzleloader hunters have the muzzleloader deer hunters out there, the early rifle hunters have no one else out hunting during that time.
I am interested to see how the mid-season hunt will alter the number of tags for non-residents in the early and late season hunts.
Dillon
www.dillonhoyt.com
Dillon
www.dillonhoyt.com
nvguy2
Active Member
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Be careful with that info from ElkManDan. I do believe that you are the next bonus point class below what he stated. Think you are further out than he stated. Plus, the mid season quotas are being pulled from the early hunt, which is going to make it even harder with less tags in that early hunt. Go to www.wildlife.utah.gov to see your true odds and you will see what I'm talking about. If you have 15 points right now after 2016, then your true odds on that odds page will fall under 14 points. That's how many you would have had going into last years hunt. Hope that helps. Good Luck either way you go.
Yeah im a resident but the more i keep thinking about it even if it takes me 2 or even 3 years to pull the early tag it'll be worth the wait. I guess I've already waited 14 years anyways so whats a little while longer going to hurt. Im a bit curious to see how the mid season does effect the odds but either way im getting close.
ElkManDan
Active Member
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>LAST EDITED ON Feb-08-17
>AT 04:24?PM (MST)
>
>Update. Thought you were a non-resident.
>That changes things. Apologies to
>you and ElkManDan. My bad.
>Check that website to see
>your odds though and Good
>Luck.
No problem, I've spent a lot of time looking at draw odds and manti has had a little point creep for the early rifle hunt but not much over the last 5 years but it does look like a few more guys are applying that are right there on the bubble. Archery on the Manti has had no point creep for a long time.
I think a lot of guys just like chasing points. If you go strictly based off of how many guys applied for a unit the previous year it usually doesn't line up exactly with who applies the next year. I think a lot of guys see that they are just a couple years out from the next tier up on quality and will apply for a slightly higher points unit once they reach that point.
It could take one more year than what I had stated but as a resident I can't see it jumping too much, might take 17 points.
>AT 04:24?PM (MST)
>
>Update. Thought you were a non-resident.
>That changes things. Apologies to
>you and ElkManDan. My bad.
>Check that website to see
>your odds though and Good
>Luck.
No problem, I've spent a lot of time looking at draw odds and manti has had a little point creep for the early rifle hunt but not much over the last 5 years but it does look like a few more guys are applying that are right there on the bubble. Archery on the Manti has had no point creep for a long time.
I think a lot of guys just like chasing points. If you go strictly based off of how many guys applied for a unit the previous year it usually doesn't line up exactly with who applies the next year. I think a lot of guys see that they are just a couple years out from the next tier up on quality and will apply for a slightly higher points unit once they reach that point.
It could take one more year than what I had stated but as a resident I can't see it jumping too much, might take 17 points.
tallelkchaser
Active Member
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- 132
Having hunted some amazing units all over the state, never the Manti, i think it just comes down to what you are expecting out of the hunt. If this would be a tag you would be happy with after 14 years then go for it! if not reconsider and realign to a hunt you would be happy to draw.
