Pinetree
Active Member
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- 113
Draw odds For Utah Are Out
- Thread starter Pinetree
- Start date
Thanks for sharing the link. They were released way earlier this year than they have been in past years.
I might draw my elk and/or mountain goat sometime in the next few decades. Utah has me on the hook with too many points to walk away at this point.
Luckily, I recently moved to Wyoming and I can get general season tags every year once I establish my residency.
Cheers.
Dillon
www.dillonhoyt.com
I might draw my elk and/or mountain goat sometime in the next few decades. Utah has me on the hook with too many points to walk away at this point.
Luckily, I recently moved to Wyoming and I can get general season tags every year once I establish my residency.
Cheers.
Dillon
www.dillonhoyt.com
Bwht4x4
Very Active Member
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- 1,427
Can someone answer me this in regards to the number of eligible applicants for LE deer.
Page 1 shows the number of eligible NR applicants with 22 points is 3, 21 pts is 5, 20 pts is 5, etc.
However, on page 11 for Henry Mtns any legal weapon hunt it shows the total eligible NR applicants that applied were: 22 pts had 7 applicants, 21 pts had 16 applicants, 20 pts had 18 applicants, etc.
Why are there more eligible NR apps for each of the top point classes for the Henrys any weapon hunt than what is shown on page 1?
After this year's draw I'm at 20 points for LE deer and I'd like to figure out how many guys are ahead of me.
Page 1 shows the number of eligible NR applicants with 22 points is 3, 21 pts is 5, 20 pts is 5, etc.
However, on page 11 for Henry Mtns any legal weapon hunt it shows the total eligible NR applicants that applied were: 22 pts had 7 applicants, 21 pts had 16 applicants, 20 pts had 18 applicants, etc.
Why are there more eligible NR apps for each of the top point classes for the Henrys any weapon hunt than what is shown on page 1?
After this year's draw I'm at 20 points for LE deer and I'd like to figure out how many guys are ahead of me.
Zeke
Long Time Member
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- 10,603
I'll take a look at it and correct my answer if I get it wrong.
The F&G usually break down the total applicant onto a different report than those who only bought points, So, you have to add those two reports together to get a true picture of the total folks in a particular points pool.
Clear as mud yet?
Zeke
The F&G usually break down the total applicant onto a different report than those who only bought points, So, you have to add those two reports together to get a true picture of the total folks in a particular points pool.
Clear as mud yet?
Zeke
Zeke
Long Time Member
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- 10,603
LAST EDITED ON Jun-29-16 AT 12:17PM (MST)[p]Yep that's correct.
The first page is only those who BOUGHT a point (3). The next page shows actual applicants (9).
Now, take the number of tags issued to those 11 applicants in 2016 and you'll have the total number of eligible applicants for 2017.
Zeke
The first page is only those who BOUGHT a point (3). The next page shows actual applicants (9).
Now, take the number of tags issued to those 11 applicants in 2016 and you'll have the total number of eligible applicants for 2017.
Zeke
Zeke
Long Time Member
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- 10,603
Here's your numbers:
points going into the drawing
11 applicants had 22 points 2 drew = 9 applicants for 2017
23 applicants had 21 points 2 drew = 21 "
29 applicants had 20 points 1 drew = 28 "
73 applicants had 19 points 4 drew = 69 "
So there are 58 folks remaining who are in higher points pools than you and 69 remaining in your pool.
Zeke
points going into the drawing
11 applicants had 22 points 2 drew = 9 applicants for 2017
23 applicants had 21 points 2 drew = 21 "
29 applicants had 20 points 1 drew = 28 "
73 applicants had 19 points 4 drew = 69 "
So there are 58 folks remaining who are in higher points pools than you and 69 remaining in your pool.
Zeke
Bwht4x4
Very Active Member
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Thanks Zeke. I see what my problem was in trying to decipher the odds. I wasn't seeing the heading that said "2016 Draw 5, Big Game Bonus Point Purchase Results" because I thought it was a common heading for all the pages.
In the end even with my 20 points there's still quite a few folks ahead of me. The only bright side is that I'm only 44 y/o and I'm guessing that I'm younger when compared to the other higher point holders. I may simply be able to get to the max point pool in 10 to 15 years through attrition. I'd love to know the age breakdown of the other high point holders. It may also be compounded a bit in my favor by folks jumping ship and going for a Paunsaugunt tag too. I too may consider a Paunsaugunt in the future, but not for quite a while (10+ years).
In the end even with my 20 points there's still quite a few folks ahead of me. The only bright side is that I'm only 44 y/o and I'm guessing that I'm younger when compared to the other higher point holders. I may simply be able to get to the max point pool in 10 to 15 years through attrition. I'd love to know the age breakdown of the other high point holders. It may also be compounded a bit in my favor by folks jumping ship and going for a Paunsaugunt tag too. I too may consider a Paunsaugunt in the future, but not for quite a while (10+ years).
Zeke
Long Time Member
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- 10,603
>Thanks Zeke. I see what
>my problem was in trying
>to decipher the odds.
>I wasn't seeing the heading
>that said "2016 Draw 5,
>Big Game Bonus Point Purchase
>Results" because I thought it
>was a common heading for
>all the pages.
>
>In the end even with my
>20 points there's still quite
>a few folks ahead of
>me. The only bright
>side is that I'm only
>44 y/o and I'm guessing
>that I'm younger when compared
>to the other higher point
>holders. I may simply
>be able to get to
>the max point pool in
>10 to 15 years through
>attrition. I'd love to
>know the age breakdown of
>the other high point holders.
> It may also be
>compounded a bit in my
>favor by folks jumping ship
>and going for a Paunsaugunt
>tag too. I too
>may consider a Paunsaugunt in
>the future, but not for
>quite a while (10+ years).
>
You're very welcome!
Yep, you're just a kid and even after that 15 year wait that you're talking about you'll still be younger than I am right now (62).
You have time on your side and you have the option of jumping to the Paunsaugunt, which is the unit that I'll be hunting this year.
At my level of points going into the draw this year it didn't make sense to try for the Henry's as it would be 8+ years more for an archery tag and between 25 and 30 more years for a muzzleloader of rifle tag. I hunted the Henry's 5 or 6 years in a row when it was a general season area and managed to take 3 bucks for the wall but I have not hunted Paunsaugunt and I've always wanted to so this is my one and only shot.
What will you hunt with? bow, ml or rifle?
Zeke
>my problem was in trying
>to decipher the odds.
>I wasn't seeing the heading
>that said "2016 Draw 5,
>Big Game Bonus Point Purchase
>Results" because I thought it
>was a common heading for
>all the pages.
>
>In the end even with my
>20 points there's still quite
>a few folks ahead of
>me. The only bright
>side is that I'm only
>44 y/o and I'm guessing
>that I'm younger when compared
>to the other higher point
>holders. I may simply
>be able to get to
>the max point pool in
>10 to 15 years through
>attrition. I'd love to
>know the age breakdown of
>the other high point holders.
> It may also be
>compounded a bit in my
>favor by folks jumping ship
>and going for a Paunsaugunt
>tag too. I too
>may consider a Paunsaugunt in
>the future, but not for
>quite a while (10+ years).
>
You're very welcome!
Yep, you're just a kid and even after that 15 year wait that you're talking about you'll still be younger than I am right now (62).
You have time on your side and you have the option of jumping to the Paunsaugunt, which is the unit that I'll be hunting this year.
At my level of points going into the draw this year it didn't make sense to try for the Henry's as it would be 8+ years more for an archery tag and between 25 and 30 more years for a muzzleloader of rifle tag. I hunted the Henry's 5 or 6 years in a row when it was a general season area and managed to take 3 bucks for the wall but I have not hunted Paunsaugunt and I've always wanted to so this is my one and only shot.
What will you hunt with? bow, ml or rifle?
Zeke
I'm one point ahead of you and 10 years older. I did elk the first two years of points. I drew on year two. I think that puts us at similar probability of drawing before being put in the rest home. Age effects on the draw will start kicking in at some point so I honestly feel I have a good chance before I get too old... But you never know! One tag a year doesn't cut pools like that too fast. The hunt expo has put a hurt on nonresidents trying for tags like that. Two vs one tags per year would be huge! But who knows 20 years down the line what will happen? I think the Henry's weren't limited entry or even open to hunting and on the radar when we started. It was Pandagunt back then. I'm going to hold on the Henry's unless something better comes up
Bwht4x4
Very Active Member
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For the last couple of decades I've been applying for archery and muzzy seasons...depending on how I'm feeling that year. There's only one tag for both archery and muzzy so I'm in the random pool with everyone else. It'd be the same situation for the rifle hunt since I'm not max points.
My dream is that UDWR gives another tag for the archery or muzzy hunt so at least one tag is available through the preference system to max point holders. If they'd stop giving so many tags to the Expo maybe that could happen, but I'm not sure.
My dream is that UDWR gives another tag for the archery or muzzy hunt so at least one tag is available through the preference system to max point holders. If they'd stop giving so many tags to the Expo maybe that could happen, but I'm not sure.
GLEDEASY
Active Member
- Messages
- 915
Thanks for the link.
I tried something knew this year and tried my luck on a CWMU deer tag. The odds weren't great but also not bad. The last few years had shown 2 tags given each year. This year it was cut to 1, significantly making reasonable odds to bad odds.
My question is this, do they ever break down proposed tag numbers for each cwmu or do you have to use your best guess off of previous years?
I tried something knew this year and tried my luck on a CWMU deer tag. The odds weren't great but also not bad. The last few years had shown 2 tags given each year. This year it was cut to 1, significantly making reasonable odds to bad odds.
My question is this, do they ever break down proposed tag numbers for each cwmu or do you have to use your best guess off of previous years?
sambo3006
Active Member
- Messages
- 349
I drew Wasatch late rifle elk as a nonresident with 12 points. Looking at the statistics something is not right. There were 12 total NR tags so 6 bonus and 6 random.
14 points: 2 applicants, 2 bonus tags.
13 points: 4 applicants, 3 bonus tags, no random tags.
12 points: 7 applicants, 1 bonus tag, 3 random tags.
I'm guessing this was a typo or one of the 13 point applicants got kicked out for an improper app or possibly turned the tag back in already?
In any regard it looks like I drew my tag from the random draw and I'm very grateful to have gotten this awesome tag.
NRA Life Member
www.swanspointoutfitters.com
The critters have to win every time. I only have to win once.
14 points: 2 applicants, 2 bonus tags.
13 points: 4 applicants, 3 bonus tags, no random tags.
12 points: 7 applicants, 1 bonus tag, 3 random tags.
I'm guessing this was a typo or one of the 13 point applicants got kicked out for an improper app or possibly turned the tag back in already?
In any regard it looks like I drew my tag from the random draw and I'm very grateful to have gotten this awesome tag.
NRA Life Member
www.swanspointoutfitters.com
The critters have to win every time. I only have to win once.
SheepHntr83
Active Member
- Messages
- 103
somebody drew antelope island with 3 pts for Bighorn! that's awesome!!!
>somebody drew antelope island with 3
>pts for Bighorn! that's awesome!!!
>
Stole this from another forum....
Some notables for me.
199 residents drew LE elk tags with 1 point or less.
174 residents drew LE deer tags with 1 point or less.
18 Non Residents drew LE deer tags with 0 points.
185 Residents drew pronghorn points with 1 point or less.
Non Resident Bison.
Antelope Island drew with 0 points
Book Cliffs drew with 1 point.
Non Resident sheep
San Rafael South drew with 1 point
Nine Mile Range creek drew with 1 point
Tallbuck1
>pts for Bighorn! that's awesome!!!
>
Stole this from another forum....
Some notables for me.
199 residents drew LE elk tags with 1 point or less.
174 residents drew LE deer tags with 1 point or less.
18 Non Residents drew LE deer tags with 0 points.
185 Residents drew pronghorn points with 1 point or less.
Non Resident Bison.
Antelope Island drew with 0 points
Book Cliffs drew with 1 point.
Non Resident sheep
San Rafael South drew with 1 point
Nine Mile Range creek drew with 1 point
Tallbuck1
sambo3006
Active Member
- Messages
- 349
You guys are probably right on the party app, didn't think of that. I know I would never put in as a party if I was any where near close to the cutoff for a bonus tag like I was this year (unless the other person on the app has more points than me and was aware of the possibility of not drawing as a party).
NRA Life Member
www.swanspointoutfitters.com
The critters have to win every time. I only have to win once.
NRA Life Member
www.swanspointoutfitters.com
The critters have to win every time. I only have to win once.
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