Non Res LE Elk Tag Question

eyeman · May 20, 2017

Question for the Utah crowd.
What are the chances that a non res would draw a LE Elk tag with only 4 points? In an area that gives only 1 non res tag
Yes its a loaded question.

Thanks for input.

sshuntn · May 20, 2017

Pretty tough, but possible depending on the unit. You won't be guaranteed until you get enough points to draw a bonus tag on a hunt with more than one tag. Good luck.

www.shanescottoutfitting.com

Scottieoutwest1 · May 20, 2017

LAST EDITED ON May-20-17 AT 10:32AM (MST)[p]In 2015 I got the only nonresident LE bull tag for the Deep Creek unit with 2 points. That's obviously the exception rather than the rule, but shows that luck can sometimes defeat statistics.

JakeH · May 20, 2017

With only 1 tag your points are useless, it depends on the number of people that applied for the unit, If you go for a popular unit, your odds are pretty crappie, 1 in (number of other applicants) so 1 in 500, but if you put in for a lesser known unit I've seen were only 3 or 4 people put in for them, so your odds would be 1 in 4, and those are pretty damn good odds if you ask me. Granted you wont be hunting areas with many mature bulls, but I bet it would be a fun hunt.

Jake H. BIG BONE HUNTING Page on Facebook.

canyoncrosser · May 20, 2017

In 2015 I drew a early rifle tag in the central part of the state. There were 2 non res tags for the unit. There was 45 applicants for those 2 tags and I had 4pts. So I had a 1in 45 chance of drawing the tag for the random...

eyeman · May 20, 2017

Ok thanks for the info guys. the loaded part of the question is I have a 800$ pending charge from Utah!....I'm thinking the Panguitch Unit, early rifle or muzzleloader....but since I didn't really expect a tag I didn't save my conf#,stupid me and can't remember 100%....now I wait in anticipation and roll around at night trying to sleep.

treedagain · May 20, 2017

You should have got a email when you applied.

txhunter58 · May 20, 2017

LAST EDITED ON May-20-17 AT 08:01PM (MST)[p]My problem is I can't even remember what credit card I put in on!

However, I did check my emails and found the confirmation email about my app. It had the last 4 numbers of my card. NO HITS :-(

txhunter58

venor, ergo sum (I hunt, therefore I am)

Sierra · May 20, 2017

LAST EDITED ON May-21-17 AT 00:32AM (MST)[p]>With only 1 tag your points
>are useless, it depends on
>the number of people that
>applied for the unit,
>If you go for a
>popular unit, your odds are
>pretty crappie, 1 in (number
>of other applicants) so
>1 in 500, but if
>you put in for a
>lesser known unit I've seen
>were only 3 or 4
>people put in for them,
>so your odds would be
>1 in 4, and those
>are pretty damn good odds
>if you ask me..........

Pretty sure that's not how it works.

JakeH · May 21, 2017

Care to enlighten me Sierra.

Jake H. BIG BONE HUNTING Page on Facebook.

Sierra · May 21, 2017

LAST EDITED ON May-21-17 AT 12:25PM (MST)[p]>Care to enlighten me Sierra.
>
>
>Jake H. BIG BONE HUNTING
>Page on Facebook.
>

Bonus points are still a factor under the random draw. The more bonus points you have, the better your odds in the random pool. You can see this by looking at any of the websites or publications that show the odds.

JakeH · May 21, 2017

Bonus Points do give you more chances technically, but you still only have 1 assigned number going into the draw, The more points you have the more numbers you are issued, then they take the lowest number you got and throw the rest out.

But they do not do this for each unit, they do it as a collective, so out of every person that put in for an elk tag for all units each person gets assigned one number, from there they perform the draw, if nobody has a lower number than you for the unit you applied for you get the tag. Meaning if 10 people put in for unit "A" they don't draw a number for each of your points for that tag, they draw 10 people and whoever has the lowest number out of the 10 gets the tag.

I do see what your saying, but it has very little effect, its basically a random draw, and if only 4 guys put in for the tag it is your lowest assigned number vs there lowest assigned number.

Jake H. BIG BONE HUNTING Page on Facebook.

WapitiBob · May 21, 2017

"I do see what your saying, but it has very little effect, its basically a random draw, and if only 4 guys put in for the tag it is your lowest assigned number vs there lowest assigned number."

You get one chance at a low number and I get 10 and you think that doesn't make a difference?

JakeH · May 21, 2017

LAST EDITED ON May-21-17 AT 10:38PM (MST)[p]

>"I do see what your saying,
>but it has very little
>effect, its basically a random
>draw, and if only 4
>guys put in for the
>tag it is your lowest
>assigned number vs there lowest
>assigned number."
>
> You get one chance at
>a low number and I
>get 10 and you think
>that doesn't make a difference?
>

Yes, it's not as much of a difference, you got 10 chances out of what is probably a couple hundred thousand points. (I don't feel like looking up the exact number of points in the system) 10 out of 200,000 isn't all that much better than 1 out of 200,000 do you see what I'm saying here? Better? Yes, it is better, but odds wise it's still not great.

EDIT:
Because I was curious I decided to run the actual numbers.
It breaks down like this for 2016,
Resident point totals: 292,909 points. For 1361 regular permits.
Non-Resident point totals: 88,558 points. For 159 regular permits.
I did not include the bonus permits as they will go top people in each unit.

Pretty sh!tty odds in my book. But you cant win if your not in the game.

Jake H. BIG BONE HUNTING Page on Facebook.

delmag1942 · May 21, 2017

Any NR apply for San Juan elk early rifle?

sticksender · May 22, 2017

I'd guess that about 2000 did! Usually one bonus tag and one random for NR's.

txhunter58 · May 22, 2017

For 2016 odds for San Juan early rifle with 0 points was 0.1% (1 in 1000) For 22 points, the odds jumped all the way to 0.2% !!! (1 in 500)

txhunter58

venor, ergo sum (I hunt, therefore I am)

Sierra · May 22, 2017

>For 2016 odds for San Juan
>early rifle with 0 points
>was 0.1% (1 in 1000)
> For 22 points, the
>odds jumped all the way
>to 0.2% !!! (1
>in 500)
>
>txhunter58
>
>venor, ergo sum (I hunt, therefore
>I am)

Those are not accurate odds. The odds go up much faster than that. I think you may be missing a decimal point for zero points.

sludge · May 22, 2017

LAST EDITED ON May-22-17 AT 01:18PM (MST)[p]LAST EDITED ON May-22-17 AT 01:10?PM (MST)

For perspective. If I have the numbers correct, in 2016 there where 1580 applicants for the San Juan rifle elk tag. If you estimate the odds by using just 1/1580, this is a terrible 0.06%. If you calculate the true odds for the people with the most points sitting at 22, it is 23/13580, still a terrible 0.17%. 20 years of applying doesn't get you much in the random draw, in reality it is still all about getting max points. Is it better to have more points? Of course it is, but it's like buying $20 of lotto tickets versus $1. It's a better chance, but nothing to get excited about. That being said, my wife was really lucky and just pulled the one NR early rifle elk tag for Monroe with 11 points. So it does happen to someone!

Sierra · May 22, 2017

For the best hunts, i agree with Sludge that the odds are still terrible with 20+ points. But they are still way better than having zero points. About 1 in 600 versus 1 in 10,000+. For other units, the difference is more apparent.

sludge · May 22, 2017

>For the best hunts, i agree
>with Sludge that the odds
>are still terrible with 20+
>points. But they are
>still way better than having
>zero points. About 1
>in 600 versus 1 in
>10,000+. For other units,
>the difference is more apparent.
>

More points are definitely always better, but for a NR, if you are applying for one of the better early rifle tags like the San Juan, Boulder, Beaver, Southwest Desert, etc... and hoping for a random draw tag... you have to be REALLY lucky no matter how many points you have. For another perspective, I'll use Monroe. Last year there were 302 NR applicants. Simple odds of 1/302 gives you a 0.3% chance. If you look at the real odds, the 4 people that applied with 20 points had odds of 21/2284, or 0.92%. Some one at 11 points like my wife had odds of 12/2284, or 0.53%. Someone just starting out had the wonderful odds of 1/2284, or 0.044%. So 20 years of points get you almost a 1% chance. Much better than the person starting out, but if a NR was to only apply for Monroe for their whole life... the odds are they are never going to hunt it.

That being said, you never know. I'm still waiting on the emails until I celebrate, but with two charges on my credit card, it looks like my wife beat the really long odds.