Preference Point & Draw (can of worms)

Chewy · Apr 6, 2017

Sheep
Goat
Moose
Are they all basically lottery?

I understand you have to get 3 points, then you're eligible to actually be in the draw, right?

Then after that do the "weighted" points actually mean anything?

Thanks
Chew

huntfishall1 · Apr 6, 2017

Basically, yes you first need 3 pref pts to be eligible. There might be a scenario where almost no one applies with 3 pref pts and it would go to someone with less than three, but very unlikely and I dont follow all the draw stats enough to know if this ever happens. Maybe for a female tag? I'm not sure.

In regards to the weighted pts - yes they do come into play somewhat. I was told everyone with 3 pref pt gets assigned a random number. That number is then divided by the number of weighted pts. The applicant with the lowest number after this done get the tag, then the applicant with the next lowest number gets a tag, and so forth until all the tags are drawn. So in theory the weighted pts can help since but its also dependent on the luck of the random number you draw as well.

ORIONTHEHUNTER · Apr 6, 2017

You do need 3 before you are eligible some ewe and cow moose tags can be drawn with less occasionally. The weighted points are just a feel good that CDOW does. I ran all the stats from the people that drew bighorn ram tags last year and there were just as many drawn that had 3 plus 5 to plus 0 as there were that had 3 plus 6 to 3 plus max. So it is basically a lottery and all comes down to your assigned random number.

ORIONTHEHUNTER · Apr 6, 2017

I was bored and ran the 2016 draw stats for resident bighorn ram tags. Out of the 190 tags issued 107 went to people with 3plus 7 to 3 plus 15 which is max. 83 tags went to guys with 3 plus 6 or less. So 56 percent to 44 percent. A slight edge to higher point holder but not enough for me to say there is a huge advantage of having max points. I would still consider it a lottery and know that you may never draw a ram tag in Colorado, myself included which I am sitting on 3 plus 9 going into this years draw.

Chewy · Apr 6, 2017

Ok-
So yeah pretty much lottery....
I guess 3+ 7 is where it's at??

If you look, there are a few of the "lucky" ones that draw with fewer!

That's me! lol I hope....

Is this the same with Goat and Moose?

Are Goat/Moose/Sheep once in a lifetime?

Chew

muleymark · Apr 6, 2017

http://www.bighornsheep.org/HowColoradoSheepGoatDrawWorks.pdf

DW · Apr 6, 2017

>Ok-
>So yeah pretty much lottery....
>I guess 3+ 7 is where
>it's at??
>
>If you look, there are a
>few of the "lucky" ones
>that draw with fewer!
>
>That's me! lol I hope....
>
>Is this the same with Goat
>and Moose?

Yes

>
>Are Goat/Moose/Sheep once in a lifetime?
>
>

Bull moose are, sheep and goat are not

>Chew

Chewy · Apr 7, 2017

Pretty wild draw system!
Thanks for clarification.

How did you obtain the application numbers?

smitho · Apr 8, 2017

The weighted points would give a pretty good advantage if there were equal numbers of applicants in each point group. The problem is that in most units there are far more applicants with fewer points so the odds of the lucky number coming from the point group is much greater which voids any advantage the applicants with more points might have.

ElmerFudd · Apr 8, 2017

The reason that it would not be fair to use a preference system on sheep, goat and moose is that it would lock out all but the top pool until all in the top pool died. There aren't enough tags to turn over pools through tag issuance. So, they decided to give an advantage for being in longer while making all get a chance after 4 years. The truth is that most people will never draw.

Chewy · Apr 8, 2017

Supply and demand!
Demand is higher than the supply of animals.

So basically it's luck....
Unless you've got a lot of $$$$

sticksender · Apr 10, 2017

For me as a NR, the best part of Colorado's weighted draw system for Sheep, Goat, and Moose is that each applicant is allowed only one unit choice. And more importantly, each NR-eligible unit has it's own separate NR quota. And even better yet, they have a few archery-only hunts for Sheep & Goat (unlike any other state in the west). This means that if you're willing to hunt a "low demand" unit, you can keep applying for it each year and have reasonable odds to draw it sometime in your life. Forcing people to choose only the single unit they want the most, keeps the applicant numbers lower for the less desirable hunts.

And for NR's, the paper-only, full-license-fee-required, application system has probably kept the app numbers lower. Unfortunately any benefit from that comes to an end next year since they plan to allow NR to apply on-line.

ORIONTHEHUNTER · Apr 10, 2017

I wouldn't be surprised if NR apps double next year since they can do it on-line and put it on a credit card

mntman · Apr 12, 2017

>I wouldn't be surprised if NR
>apps double next year since
>they can do it on-line
>and put it on a
>credit card

If they do change, it will definitely jump. The ones who have been applying have 3 years before odds fall even farther though...
If you been saving that luck, better dump it before 2022...

Mntman

"Hunting is where you prove yourself"