As stated, you can many times pick up a muzzy tag in a decent for less than the 3rd season. But when you can, those are usually high country hunts with low deer numbers. You will see more deer on a 3rd season hunt. With those points, your chance of a 170 buck is prob better with the muzzy, but your odds are lower overall for bringing any buck home.
There is a CHANCE at a 170 in every unit out there, but for what you can draw, if you hold out for that, your odds are pretty dismal for bringing one home, especially because you are hunting a new area.
venor, ergo sum (I hunt, therefore I am)