AZ Draw Odds?

Joe2Kool · Oct 12, 2015

The MM link for AZ draw odds did not list mule deer. And I was unable to find it on the AZ Game and Fish website. Anyone know where I can get this info?

Thanks.

WapitiBob · Oct 12, 2015

it's in the bonus point area

https://azgfdportal.az.gov/hunting/draw/bonuspointprocess/

Joe2Kool · Oct 12, 2015

That's a complicated draw process. I'll call the AZ G&F, but I'll ask a different question, how many years does it take to get drawn? By area?

BGbasbhat · Oct 13, 2015

There are a ton of sources for this info, and using the Search function on the site will help, as a bunch of guys post when they get drawn or fill their tag and how many points it took.

Not too complicated; but then again, i've been a resident for a few years now, and have it figured out. Need to do the same in other states now. There are a couple guys in this section that know way more about the process.
Buy a license, pick your hunt choices, Elk/Lope applications due by mid February, Deer/Sheep by early April. Non-residents get 10-15% of tag allocation per hunt. If you don't get drawn, you get a bonus point and your name goes in the pot 2x next year, and so on...

Elk/Lope Draw: Odds vary depending on unit, with the top units/hunts for non-residents taking 10-20 years. Other hunts can take much less. i.e. My dad (MO resident) got drawn for a late rifle bull hunt after 5 years. Tough hunt in a decent unit, but can be done.

Deer Draw: Same story as elk. If you're talking Strip or Kaibab, you're looking 10-20 years also. Other units, can take considerably less time.

"...I'd rather be tried by twelve than carried by six..."

sagebrush · Oct 13, 2015

This is the link for 2014 deer. They don't have 2015 up yet.

http://azgfdportal.az.gov/PortalIma... Point Report - Bonus Pass by Hunt Number.pdf

This is the link for 2015 elk.

https://azgfdportal.devaz.gov/Porta... Point Report - Bonus Pass by Hunt Number.pdf

"You can fly a helicopter to the top of Everest and say you've been there. The problem with that is you were an a$$hole when you started and you're still an a$$hole when you get back.
Its the climb that makes you a different person". - Yvon Chouinard

Joe2Kool · Oct 13, 2015

Looks like all those with higher points are drawn before those with lesser points. Similar to many other states.

Thanks.

sagebrush · Oct 13, 2015

20 percent of the tags go to those with the most points in the Bonus Pass. Then the remaining 80 percent are drawn in a random drawing where each applicant is given a random number for each bonus point they have in what is called the 1-2 Pass. Non-residents are limited to 10 percent of the tags available on any given hunt. Which means on the most sought after hunts, the non-resident quota is usually reached in the bonus pass (Strip deer tags and units 9, 10, 23 elk tags). The only way a non-resident can draw one of those tags is with max points. If you haven't been applying since the bonus point system was adopted, you will never draw one of those tags. That said, there are plenty of great hunts that don't require max points.

"You can fly a helicopter to the top of Everest and say you've been there. The problem with that is you were an a$$hole when you started and you're still an a$$hole when you get back.
Its the climb that makes you a different person". - Yvon Chouinard

Joe2Kool · Oct 14, 2015

Thanks Sagebrush. That explanation helps a lot.
Also sent you a PM.

cmbbulldog · Oct 14, 2015

You should note that AZ might be changing the way the draw takes place for the 2016 draw where 5% of available tags for NR's would go into the random draw where any NR would have a chance at the best tags. My guess is that is passes.... stay tuned.

Joe2Kool · Oct 16, 2015

So two options:
1) Persistence pays off, OR
2) You just might get lucky on your first try!!
Kool!
Thanks CMB

lynntelk · Oct 18, 2015

Maybe, maybe not. It took 15 years as a non resident to draw a 12AW late deer hunt 3 years ago. I currently will have 22 bonus points going into the 2016 elk draw. I was a lot younger man when I started this process.

WapitiBob · Oct 26, 2015

CM, the Article 1 proposals which included the new 5% / 5% NR caps, passed the Commission in Sept. They go to the Governors Regulatory Review Council on Nov 3 and when/if approved will become effective Jan 2016.

cmbbulldog · Oct 27, 2015

Thanks for the update Bob.

>CM, the Article 1 proposals
>which included the new 5%
>/ 5% NR caps, passed
>the Commission in Sept. They
>go to the Governors Regulatory
>Review Council on Nov 3
>and when/if approved will become
>effective Jan 2016.

huntinfanatic · Oct 27, 2015

Wapatibob, Do you know if in the language that passed if NR's are guaranteed 10% of tags or will it still be UP TO 10%?

WapitiBob · Oct 27, 2015

Up to 10%, Bonus Pass may be No More than 5%. My take on the language is that the remainder from the Bonus Pass drops to the 1-2 Pass for a possible (unlikely) 10% in that 1-2 Pass.

huntinfanatic · Oct 28, 2015

Thanks, I was all for the change IF they did a guaranteed 10% for NR's. Unfortunately it sounds like they chose to further reduce NR opportunity.

sagebrush · Oct 28, 2015

I'm not so sure on the 5% in the 1-2 Pass not going to non-residents. There are far more non-resident high point holders than residents, especially for deer. You get one random number for every point. I think there will be some surprised non-residents next year when the draw results start coming out.

"You can fly a helicopter to the top of Everest and say you've been there. The problem with that is you were an a$$hole when you started and you're still an a$$hole when you get back.
Its the climb that makes you a different person". - Yvon Chouinard

WapitiBob · Oct 28, 2015

If they'd get the new draw report done and out we woupd know for sure.

Joe2Kool · Oct 29, 2015

I called Wednesday about the draw report. It is available and headed my way via e-mail! Was told it should be posted online soon.

ElmerFudd · Nov 2, 2015

if more than 10% of the applicants are nonresidents for a particular hunt are nonresident and nonresidents have as many or more points, one would think the full 10% will probably go to nonresidents either way. 20% nonresidents in the draw for a hunt would just about make it certainty. I think most of the high demand hunts are weighted like that or more nonresident. Does that seem logical?

WapitiBob · Nov 2, 2015

Guess I'll take her off my Christmas list. We've been talking back n forth about it for over 4 years.

sagebrush · Nov 2, 2015

Fudd - That was my take on it also. But 5% of those tags will go to non-residents in the 1-2 pass random draw, so several non-residents with less than max points will be getting tags.

"You can fly a helicopter to the top of Everest and say you've been there. The problem with that is you were an a$$hole when you started and you're still an a$$hole when you get back.
Its the climb that makes you a different person". - Yvon Chouinard