Resident Kaibab Chances

Hi folks I've been lurking here awhile but rarely post looking for some help with my app this year. Az resident with 7 points thinking 12AE early but would like to put in for 12AW late. I do know as a resident technically I could draw the strip with no points but we all know the probablity of that happening ain't so good. Realistically what are my chances of drawing either of those hunts? I'm thinking I should have a pretty good shot at the early one but would prefer the late honestly. Any ideas or thoughts are appreciated as you guys here seem to have a better understand of how many points it takes to realistically stand a chance at drawing these tags.

Put in early and you'll probably draw. I've been playing the late game for 10 years and now sitting on 12 points. I could have hunted early at least twice and after I eventually draw I'm going back to early hunts across the board. I missed a lot of years hunting with my son waiting. Resident.

I drew 12b late with 2 points two years ago so as a res you never know about the draw so i would put in for 12ae and just hope you hit it! good luck on the draw...