Point Runoff?

ByeByeObamas · Dec 23, 2017

I have 8 pts and am 3 behind the lead. I study date-numbers for the top units, dates, the usual intel.

With that said, i have 2 questions. 1) will the points ever conceivably allow a guy 3 behind to catch up? 2) are the top few hunts (128 etc) the only ones worth while?

I constantly hear about G but am turned off about the number of guys I constantly hear about. I prefer the ones that have a cap (including res). Im a non res and would love an opinion or two.

Thanks

TOPGUN · Dec 23, 2017

I believe you're talking about point creep because I've never heard the term you're using. First off, if you have 8 points, you're 4 behind because 12 is the max for the 2018 draws. There are a number of good units you could draw with 8 PPs, but if I had 8 PPs I'd be heading for Region G again after hunting there in 2015 and accompanying my resident buddy there again in 2016. There is a ton of country and there isn't a hunter or a buck behind every tree, but if you hunt hard and are in good shape you can kill a good buck up there even after last winter being so bad. I would watch what the weather does this winter and if it's no worse than normal for that area I'd be hunting it next season if I were you.

marburg · Dec 23, 2017

There are about 8000 people with more than 8 points going into the draw. Since Wyoming gives roughly about 10 NR tags per year for the premium type deer hunts like 128, You are roughly 80 years from being in the max point pool. This is all rough math but it is pretty close. Even if you could carve off 30 years of it, your still 50 years out. I don't see tag allocations going up by any huge numbers so bottom line is, as with most pure preference points states, unless you are in at the ground floor you will never be the top floor.

Moral of the story look for hunts that take a few less than max. I am in close to your same boat, 10 points for deer, and I dont plan on ever drawing a max point unit. The math just doesnt allow for it.

jims · Dec 23, 2017

Unfortunately in the WG&F draw odds reports it only lists the max and under max pref pt applicants in the 2017 draw odds report. In 2017 there were only 3 special tags and 43 applicants.....and 5 regular tags with 50 applicants. If they offer the same number of tags it would take approximately 14 years in the special and 9 years in the regular draw before all those currently applying for 128 draw out.

Obviously the number of applicants fluctuate but that ought to give you a feel for how long before applicants with 1 less than max will have a chance to draw 128 in the reg/special pools. There is always an outside chance of drawing a random tag. In 2017 there was 1 tag issued in the reg and 1 in special random draw with 1:381 and 1:297 draw odds. Obviously tag numbers may increase or decrease from 1 year to the next so that is another consideration.

You never know what will happen with the WG&F draw process. The WG&F could always change their system, guys with top pref pts may drop out and apply for lessor units, some may die, etc. It will be interesting to see what happens this coming year since the WG&F raised the price for tags and pref pts. They may be pricing a lot of guys out of the draws! Guys just starting out or that draw may give up and opt out rather than applying. I guess I'm a little more optimistic than Marburg's post above. Just pray that there isn't severe winterkill so the WG&F offers more tags and hunters filter through the system a little quicker!

Joe2Kool · Dec 24, 2017

LAST EDITED ON Dec-24-17 AT 07:42AM (MST)[p]I thought 25% of the WY deer tags went in the Random Draw, which means PP's aren't part of the equation? Maybe someone with more knowledge will confirm or dispute.

Here's a link to a related question I posted earlier this year. Based on the responses, it is possible to draw a tag with no points.

http://www.monstermuleys.info/dcforum/DCForumID35/4300.html

ByeByeObamas · Dec 24, 2017

The first stuff posted was sounding like the know it all crap that no one wants to hear...as it had nothing to do with question. But, guys cant help interjecting how they are one up on the next.

Im in no hurry to go (if ever) so i may be going special random or bust.

TOPGUN · Dec 24, 2017

LAST EDITED ON Dec-24-17 AT 09:32AM (MST)[p]>The first stuff posted was sounding
>like the know it all
>crap that no one wants
>to hear...as it had nothing
>to do with question. But,
>guys cant help interjecting how
>they are one up on
>the next.
>
>Im in no hurry to go
>(if ever) so i may
>be going special random or
>bust.

I don't know what your problem is, but all I did was explain that what you mentioned is called "point creep" by everyone that is in the PP race. I also explained that you're even further behind the max of 12 PPs than you thought, which was strictly mentioned to help you in your decision since that 1 PP is a huge difference when asking questions like you have! I also stated that there are a lot of good units that you could draw with 8 PPs and kill a good buck and offered my on the ground experience in an area that most feel is the best Wyoming has to offer right now. With all the research you're doing you seem to know that already and I'm sure you can see what the other ones are like 128 by doing a quick search through the draw odds. As others have stated, with you being 4 PPs behind the max point holders it's doubtful you'll ever get to where you'll be able to draw a top tag in what some feel are the top areas besides Region G, which offers more NR tags than all the other top areas combined. However, as was mentioned by another member, you could get lucky in the random draw even though the other top units have very few of those tags the way Wyoming has set up their system. Good luck and please calm down when you ask questions and people just try to help even if you don't like what was said.

PS: You don't "put in" for the Special Random when you have PPs. If you pay that higher price, you first go in that Special PP Draw. Then if you don't get a tag there you're placed into the other draw where you have a very slim chance at a tag if you look at those numbers of tags and first choice applicants. This was just another tip to try to help you get a tag and nothing more!

PPS: Love your username!

OchocoKid · Dec 24, 2017

You are correct, 25% go to anyone regaurdless of points IN MOST CASES.

In the best elk hunts such as 56,59,58 and such only max point holders can apply. so if you're not in the max pool you're SOL.

The only hope for those under max points here would be a rule change, but even if that were to happen the odds will be somewhere south of awful so big deal.

To answer the original question , can I catch up with 8 points ? the answer is simple. no.

Stay Thirsty My Friends

TOPGUN · Dec 24, 2017

>You are correct, 25% go
>to anyone regaurdless of points
>IN MOST CASES.
>
>In the best elk hunts such
>as 56,59,58 and such only
>max point holders can apply.
> so if you're not
>in the max pool you're
>SOL.
>
>The only hope for those under
>max points here would be
>a rule change, but
>even if that were to
>happen the odds will be
>somewhere south of awful so
>big deal.
>
>To answer the original question ,
>can I catch up with
>8 points ?
> the answer is simple.
>no.

I think you meant to say that only max PP holders will draw the tags in those top units, not that they are the only ones that can apply. If you have less than max, you can still apply and hope you draw one of those few random tags that are offered since everyone has a chance at those. The odds are real bad, but as the old saying goes, somebody has to draw them!

ByeByeObamas · Dec 24, 2017

Im calm, but you cant resist correcting people on insignificant details. All i know is that i give wy 40 per year for point and have never put in. So i dont know the process, but would figure it out in about 5 min when the day comes. It is one of several states that i donate money to.

But...based on your length of reply and your quick response time- you may be the one that is fired up. I dont worry about anything except due dates and giving states the money and hope i get a better tag. But it sounds like i will need luck, more than time.

TOPGUN · Dec 24, 2017

>Im calm, but you cant resist
>correcting people on insignificant details.
>All i know is that
>i give wy 40 per
>year for point and have
>never put in. So
>i dont know the process,
>but would figure it out
>in about 5 min when
>the day comes. It
>is one of several states
>that i donate money to.
>
>
>But...based on your length of reply
>and your quick response time-
>you may be the one
>that is fired up. I
>dont worry about anything except
>due dates and giving states
>the money and hope i
>get a better tag. But
>it sounds like i will
>need luck, more than time.
>

Looks like you're the one being the smartazz with your retorts back when all I'm trying to do is help! Everything I mentioned regarding your point total was NOT INSIGNIFICANT because 1 point makes a huge difference in your chances to draw and if you haven't figured that out by now from all the responses that's too bad! Have a nice holiday season and cool off!

Wapitiwilly · Dec 24, 2017

Topgun
Those few units bo not have a random tag.
Just sayin
Merry Christmas

TOPGUN · Dec 24, 2017

>Topgun
>Those few units bo not have
>a random tag.
>Just sayin
>Merry Christmas

I'm well aware that some units have such low tag numbers that mathematically it works out that there are no random tags issued. However, there were only 5 mule deer units in 2017 that didn't have at least one and they were 101, 105, 116, 119, and 130. I really don't keep track of what units guys consider the top ones and was strictly building PPs for a one time shot at Region G, got that tag with 6 PPs in 2015, and killed a nice buck the 4th day of our hunt. Wishing you a Merry Christmas too!

OchocoKid · Dec 24, 2017

There are 10 or so elk hunts WY will not enter an application on if you re not in the max point pool. I believe it's any hunt with 10 or less NR tags allotted.

I don't think any deer or pronghorn hunts are effected this way.

Stay Thirsty My Friends

TOPGUN · Dec 24, 2017

>There are 10 or so
>elk hunts WY will not
> enter an application on
>if you re not in
>the max point pool.
>I believe it's any hunt
>with 10 or less NR
>tags allotted.
>
>I don't think any deer or
>pronghorn hunts are effected this
>way.

Never heard of that, but I'll take your word for it unless someone in the know disagrees with you. That could be though if it has that few tags such that only max PPs are going to draw it and mathematically there also wouldn't be any random tags available. One good thing about the WY system is that it's hard to make a mistake the way it leads you through everything.

ByeByeObamas · Dec 24, 2017

Im just glad that the states best hunters and farmost experts are here to quickly correct inaccuaracies.

TOPGUN · Dec 24, 2017

>Im just glad that the states
>best hunters and farmost experts
>are here to quickly correct
>inaccuaracies.

You really need to cool it and either thank people for trying to help you when you post and ask for help or get the H off the site with your ridiculous retorts!!!

ByeByeObamas · Dec 24, 2017

You sound mad. Its Christmas. Time to be happy.

TOPGUN · Dec 25, 2017

>You sound mad. Its Christmas. Time
>to be happy.

Nope, not mad at all, but if you go back and read the negative posts you put up to me and the other members after people have just tried to help you just maybe you'll see why I've responded like I have! Then again maybe not and I really don't care one way or the other, but it's strictly up to you whether you continue your childish posts.

eelgrass · Dec 25, 2017

OchocoKid is right, and if you look at the draw result stats, you see it every year. People get a unsuccessful notice the minute they apply.

WapitiBob · Dec 25, 2017

And if nr landowners applied, there wouldn't be a single tag for the nr public draw.

TOPGUN · Dec 25, 2017

>OchocoKid is right, and if you
>look at the draw result
>stats, you see it every
>year. People get a unsuccessful
>notice the minute they apply.

It's nice they have it set up that way so that a person who doesn't know there won't be any tags in the Random Draw can't apply and lose their money until it's refunded after the draw.