WY draw odds help...

elks96 · Jan 16, 2018

So my daughter is dead set on hunting Wy mule deer her first year. The tag she wants is a region W tag when I look at draw odds I need more detail and not sure if anyone knows how to get it?

The regular PP draw shows that 51 out of 194 people drew with less than 1 point. However that does not give me an idea of how she will fair if I combine her with my wife who has a point. Together they would split with a .5.

Does anyone know if there is a way to see what everyone drew with under 1 point? For example did those that draw with less than 1 point have .67 in the draw or those who did not draw have a .25 or less?

Thanks for any help. I am scared to think that all 3 of us will need to go special. I had planned on having my wife pull my daughter up, but now I am not sure. Maybe we go special for my daughter and my wife I might get lucky?

junior · Jan 16, 2018

LAST EDITED ON Jan-16-18 AT 12:23PM (MST)[p]Looks like 51 hunters drew with less that one point. None drew with zero points.

When you see <1, it means less than 1
I've never saw .33 or the actual number quoted in the reports.

jims · Jan 16, 2018

Last year in the regular draw there was 26% chance of drawing W with <1 pt. In the special draw there was 100% chance of drawing W with <1 pt. The random pool also has tags so the odds would increase a bit more when their names are put in that hat as well. It's hard to say what will happen this year with the increase in pref pt and license fees.

junior · Jan 16, 2018

I bet they take your money and run, if you apply special alone.
You will have your work cut out for you either way, especially if they get lucky.

Good luck.

dz · Jan 16, 2018

I just asked this question to Wy F&G The answer I got is that they do run them through with the highest point total going first. So a .3 would draw after all of the .5 were drawn. I think your idea of putting your daughter in the special and you and your wife going in the regular is the way to do it.

DZ

nripepi · Jan 16, 2018

I have never seen what you are asking for published. I would assume that the average who applied is probably less than 0.5 points, but from a modal distribution probably not a lot. I would think 0.5 would make up the majority of groups. I think your odds last year would have been around 50% at 0.5.

TopRut did sort of what you are asking for group applications by creating a model, but it does not answer your exact question:
https://www.toprut.com/news/2017/12/22/research-wyoming-draw-odds-2018-application-season/

You would have to do something similar to that, but you would still be taking a guess I think on how many points groups are likely to have.

TOPGUN · Jan 16, 2018

To answer your question elks, no the G&F doesn't have any list of the individual people that have fractions of a full point when they put out the odds, so ones with .25 could have drawn along with ones who had .75 if there were enough tags before it dropped to the next full point.

Hunt_the_West · Jan 16, 2018

Find someone with 2 points that wants to hunt W and see if they would mind applying with your wife and daughter as a group. Go into the draw with 1 average and draw a tag. I'm sure you could find your huckleberry around here.

Joe2Kool · Jan 16, 2018

Looks like your daughter by herself in the Special is only 67% chance. But the two of them together will be 100%. If getting the daughter a tag is the main objective, your best bet may be to enter wife and daughter in the Special, and you just buy a point and tag (no pun intended!) as a pack mule!

Three specials would be pricey.

Joe2Kool · Jan 16, 2018

Oh, and good luck!

elks96 · Jan 16, 2018

Thanks for all the replies. I am going to throw out a bunch of feelers looking for someone with 2 or more points.

If no bites then maybe I will go just for her in special and grow a point for wife and I to make sure we can all go next year. I see now that I am going to start buying points for my dad and buddies pretty fast!!!

I love the area and just want to hunt it as much as possible before point creep takes it away...

WapitiBob · Jan 16, 2018

You can file a public info request and pay some money to get a report showing every point group and the number of apps within each. They've been doing several for sheep guys after the price increase.