Q for Non res big 3 applicants

The way Montana draws the first hurdle for non residents is:

QUESTION.... For us non residents, did we even apply in a unit that had any non resident tags this year?


I'm wondering how many of us apply for SMG and never even participate in a drawing, since their were no Non res tags in our selected unit?

Maybe we don't want to know?

Thats a good question and one I've yet to get a straight answer on.

There are lots of questions MT is going to have to give answers to if they want the NR dollars to keep rolling in.

We played the game this year because I knew quite a few NR hunters smarter than me would drop out with the new fees. if I don't see better odds than I expect to see I know a couple more they won't have next year. if they want to limit the NR pool to 10% that's fine but make it 10% for us then.

I have a real feeling MT is a suckers bet.












Stay thirsty my friends

It is my understanding that it is possible for a nonresident to draw any unit they say you can apply in. But you do have to beat the 10% cap per district and there has to be tags left in the unit. Just the way it works out, some units they list will end up with no nonresident tags issued. Yes, the odds make it a poor nonresidents value with the current fees if the new fees dont drop out a lot of nonresident applicants.

The cap isnt per district, its per REGION.

Its a mess, inconsistent and IMO, NR's are getting screwed out of sheep, moose, goat, and bison tags every year.

If you look at the draw percentages for MSG, NR's never get 10% of the REGION wide quotas.

The "up to" language needs to go, and NR's need to be assured that the units they are allowed to apply in that a tag is available.

NR's are figuring this out and will drop out now that its more expensive to apply.

In Montana when you apply for Moose, Sheep or Mountain goats you need to pass 2 lotteries as a nonresident.

FIRST. Did I apply in a unit that Montana will subsequently allow any nonresident tags. Look at the data and you will see most applicants loose right here. They apply in a unit where there is nothing to apply for. They sent their money for an ironclad no chance.

SECOND. If you pass the first lottery then you partake in a drawing along the Nevada system and have a long shot at the 1 tag usually. I personally believe the Nevada system is the only system that will exist in the future because the other systems (75% for max point holders only and 25% to everyone else regardless of points) totally screws new hunters, like your kids and grandkids etc.

This is my "understanding" since Montana has so far not published an exact, precise explanation of their system.

Navaluk, are you asking if the FWP sometimes changes their mind after publishing the list of hunts NR's are eligible for? Or are you asking if NR's apply for hunts for which no NR's end up drawing. Two very different things.

I am only trying to find out from an authoritative source, exactly how it works. No luck so far from calling them, so I tried here. As I said above I don't know how it works. If I get it in writing from thee person in charge I will put it up here. I was hoping somebody who has been doing this for a while had already done what I'm trying to do. It may be very different than what I put out as a possibility. For example they may decide how many non resident tags will be given out in a given region then draw that many non residents names and give them the tags no matter where in the region they applied. If that's how it works then the questions should be, how and when do they decide how many tags in a given region will go to non residents? Clearly they can give out 0%-10% per region.

Do you know?

Navaluk - I sat on the committee that developed the MT point system (with some wish for different outcomes in some areas) and I will explain to you, how it was explained to the committee as working prior to a point system and how it works with the point system(s) that were recommended.

First, FWP decides which units non-residents can draw a M/G/S tag in. They provide that information to the non-residents. That is your first hurdle. Any NR who applies for a unit FWP does not designate for that year is out of luck. Not sure why a NR would do that, as the units are always made available well before the draws.

Second, all the bonus point information is considered, with each bonus point being provided a random number. For each applicant, there lowest random number is used for the draw. All your other random numbers are disregarded, using your lowest number for the drawing.

Third, the applicant hunt choice is looked, starting with the lowest random number. If you have the lowest random number, you are going hunting.

As they work through the random numbers, it is possible that all the tags in your first choice are filled. If so, you are out of luck.

For NRs, there is an additional hurdle. If the 10% NR REGION quota is filled at the time your number is drawn, you will not get a tag. If your number is pulled and there are still tags for your first choice and the 10% NR quota (by REGION) is not filled, you are going hunting.

I wish MT had a separate draw for 10% of the tags, where only NRs can apply. Then NRs would know what they are really vying for. As a resident, I have mentally blocked off that 10% of the tags are gone to NRs, so if that is how it actually happened, not a problem for me.

Some years, it is crazy how this "10% by region" thing works out. One year I went to FWP to scan the list of successful applicants and do the 10% test on the units I applied for. I was applying for the Bridgers for a goat tag, Unit 393. I see tons of goats on my hikes and really wanted to hunt there. I looked and 3 of the 5 tags went to NRs.

For that year, in the best goat unit in MT, 60% of the tags went to NRs. Some years it might be 0% of the tags went to NRs, due to this "up to 10%" language and this "by REGION" methodology, rather than by district.

If you want to see your true NR odds, use these Excel tables, not the PDF draw odds. The Excel table shows applicants by district (which can be totaled by adding all districts in the region), by point level, and by residency.

http://fwp.mt.gov/fwpDoc.html?id=63195

The odds are worse than most realize, when you take into account the squaring of points (something I think is a joke).

Best of luck when the results come out this week.

"Hunt when you can - You're gonna' run out of health before you run out of money!"

Thank you BigFin! The internet is full of disinformation on this subject.

BigFin,

My research on how close to 10% they get on any given year does not indicate that they take 10 percent and round down when there are odd numbers of tags. In fact some years are close to 5% and others close to 10%. I don't understand the logic or mathematical formula they use to pick the number of tags in any given region that will go to nonresidents. Honestly, it appears random.
Obviously they don't give 10% or one tag less than 10% to non residents per species per region.

Could you clarify what they told you if anything on how FWPs decides "how many nonresident tags will exist per big 3 species in each region applicable to the species?

Thanks again for laying out the system in your post.

Sorry I wasn't more clear in my first reply.

There is no set number or set percentage that goes to non-residents in any Region. It is all a function of whether the NRs reach the 10% quota in that Region, or not. And that is a function of who ends up with the majority of the low random numbers, residents or NRs.

If the lowest random numbers were all held by residents, there would not be a single NR tag given, no matter how many NRs applied.

If all the lowest random numbers were held by NRs, there would only be 10% of the tags going to NRs, no matter how many applied, due to the "not to exceed 10%" cap, by Region.

That is why some years it is much less than 10%. Everybody and their dog has max points as residents, so we have way more residents holding low random numbers than we do NRs holding low random numbers. In that situation, the residents comprise way more than 90% of the low random numbers, so it is most likely the NRs will not reach the 10% cap.

As to sheep, if you look at the majority of the NR apps you will see they will apply heavily in Region 6, due to unit 680. The sheep totals in that Region are not very high, but NRs usually get their 10% out of Region 6, due them carpet bombing 680 with apps.

If you then look at Regions 1, 2, and 3, not nearly as many NRs apply there for sheep, so you will seldom see NRs get to the 10% limit in those Regions. Region 4 is a mix, due to the popularity of Unit 482 and the fact that the region gives a lot of tags over on the Rocky Mountain Front.

If you look at goats, Region 3 is where most the goat tags are issued. You will see a few units that end up on the recommended list of the research services, so those will get lots of NR apps. Those few select units might give over 10% to NRs, but the rest of the units in Region 3 will have no tags go to NRs and in total, the NRs usually don't get 10% of the total tags in Region 3.

In some respects, MT is like AZ and ID, in that we do not guarantee 10% to NRs, rather we cap it at "no more than 10%," in the event the NRs ended up with a lot of low random numbers.

The percentage and the total tags given to NRs will vary every year, as each year, the number of NRs with low random numbers is different.

Montana would have to hire Congress to make our system more complicated than it currently exists. Wish it was not that way. Hope this helps a little bit.

"Hunt when you can - You're gonna' run out of health before you run out of money!"

The 10% cap per region would be hit if nonresidents were allowed to apply for all hunts. Concentrating the nonresidents into just a few hunts is why the actual percentage of tags issued fluctuates lower.

Thanks again BigFin, I actually feel I understand it now.

My personal experience with the Montana draw is this: I applied for the draw m/s/g for at least 5 years prior to the bonus pt. system. Currently have max. points as a non-res for sheep and moose. Drew Square Butte as a non-res in 2012. Myself and a college student from Great Falls were the only two hunters. He hunted early due to his college wrestling and I chose not to bother his oil hunt and waited until the end of the season. He was successful on day two of his hunt and I took 5 days. They do give tags out, I am proof

Today around lunch? Results were Monday June 17 last year.