The Montana Sheep Draw - Are you really in the drawing?

There is one fact about the MT sheep (Moose/Goat) drawing that many people are not aware of. A nonresident can duly apply for a unit that is listed on the MT application as tentatively having a nonresident tag available but end up applying for a hunt code that ends up with no tag available for a nonresident. In other words, the NR applicant pays the fees and applies for a listed (but tentative) hunt code but ends up not being in a drawing for a permit.

During the 2012 draw 502 nonresidents applied for sheep hunt 121-00 but were not in a drawing for a permit. At today?s cost that would be $37,650 collected by MT for application fees from nonresidents that would not be in a drawing for a permit. (This does not include the optional $20 bonus point fee). There is a chance that this can happen any year in MT. Since 2009 there have been approximately 950 such nonresident applicants that applied in sheep hunts tentatively listed for nonresidents but ended up with zero chance in the draw. This happened during the 2009, 2011, 2012 drawings. (During the 2015 draw there were a handful of nonresidents that applied for the 122 hunt that was cancelled but they should have known better as the potential for closure was fairly well known).


Here is why/how this happens?.
The final quotas are set in June, long after the application period. If the final total quota for a given region is reduced enough so there will be a lower final NR quota than the tentative quota for a region, one of the "NR" districts on the application could end up with a zero quota for nonresident permits before the drawing is run. The key here is that MT assigns the total available NR quota within a region to SPECIFIC hunt districts PRIOR to running the drawing. (I called and talked to a guy at MT FWP high up the food-chain in the drawing process and he confirmed the last statement.)

The actual 2012 sheep drawing is an example. There were tentatively 42 permits in region 1 (31 ES/11 Ewe) and the nonresident application listed four districts as tentatively available to nonresidents (121-00,122-00,122-30, and 123-00). The final quota was set in June at 36 permits (25 ES/11 Ewe), yielding an actual maximum quota of 3 NR permits in region 1. Nonresidents had already applied in four districts.

MT has two choices on what to do at this point. They could run the drawing with a quota of up to 3 NR permits between the four hunt districts in the region that NR had applied and paid for and let the lucky NR applicants randomly decide which 3 hunt districts will get the NR permits (assuming that 3 NR get lucky and draw). BUT THEY DON'T DO THIS! Prior to the drawing, MT assigns the NR "up to" quota for each region to specific hunt districts. If you guessed right as a NR and picked one of the 3 districts with the "actual" NR permit quota (122-00,122-30,123-00) you were really in the drawing for a permit. If you guessed wrong and applied in district 121-00 which ended up with zero NR permit quota you were never in the drawing for an actual permit.

You could have received the best random draw number in the state of MT during 2012 but if you were one of the 502 NR that applied for 121-00 you weren't even in a drawing for a permit.

I don't mind the NR quota of 10%. I don't mind having to beat the 10% quota and all the residents to draw. I don't mind paying the nonrefundable fees to apply. But it really is unfair to learn and play by the rules and send money, apply for a district listed on the NonRes application form as available and end up not even being in a drawing with a permit available. Nonresident hunters get treated pretty badly everywhere. We are all used to it. But MT is the only state I am aware of out of the many states where I apply for hunts that you really don't know if your application has a valid chance (no matter how minuscule) of drawing. There are many ways this could be fixed and made fair. Especially with the ever increasing non-refundable cost of applying, it is reasonable for a NR to expect to be in a viable drawing in MT.

I'm a resident of Montana with the max "points" for sheep, and my chances of drawing aren't viable either. Feel better? mtmuley

abqbw you're 100% correct and hunters should know what they're up against because MT sure isn't going to tell them.

If we said we're not playing anymore unless you fix it they would, but they know we won't. if you boycott them it makes my chances better so I gain and you lose . it's a cutthroat game and we're our own worst enemy.

I wish MT was the only state that screws the NR but it sure isn't.















Stay Thirsty My Friends

LAST EDITED ON Apr-14-16 AT 11:31AM (MST)[p]Scratch that, answered my own question.

Thanks!

>I'm a resident of Montana with
>the max "points" for sheep,
>and my chances of drawing
>aren't viable either. Feel better?
>mtmuley


The point of my post is that as a resident you know that your application is in the drawing for an actual permit. You are getting exactly what you paid for, an extremely low odds chance of drawing a permit. Nonresidents cannot be sure that they are even in a drawing. It's a big difference. There was no complaint about the poor draw odds for residents or nonresidents. The complaint was about the unavoidable potential for zero odds for nonresidents.

Guessing at the right units is just part of the draw luck. I think it is wise to pick districts that should have tags and do a bit of research before the draw and that might improve your odds of not making the first cut. Making available only a few districts to nonresidents seems to be a way to insure that a fraction of the 10% cap of tags is issued. I think first choice ewe nonresident tags count towards the caps too. They are taking in a lot of coin for giving out not many tags. I guess the main point is that nonresident odds are way worse than it appears because nowhere near 10% of the ram tags per region are ever issued to nonresidents.

Maybe I was a lucky NR? They called me last year to change my pick when my unit of choice was closed. or maybe it was pay backs when a few years ago they said I didn't have a conservation license & threw my app out but I did have one. Still can't win if ya don't play.

I'm not sure if it financially makes sense for a nonresident to play. They are taking in roughly $50k for every nonresident sheep tag they actually issue. I guess that's cheap compared to the auction tag, but... But it's certainly money for almost nothing to FWP. For what it's worth, I won't play in casinos but I get suckered in by operators like this

I know for certain it is rigged. I have lived in montana my whole life and have put in for 23 years and have only drawn antelope tag. No elk sheep goat moose bison deer. You get it. I put all in. I worked at this plant in great falls where they needed and begged and paid fwp to get water from giant springs. After countless meetings with fwp the new manager of the plant from Wisconsin drew elk and sheep the same year. The blackleaf game preserve is a tough draw. When i asked how or why i no longer work there. I wish there was a way to blow this up and prove it. Just keep in mind residents are just as pissed. 90 percent tags should go to most bonus points res or nonres 10 percent to newbies. I asked fwp region 4 why they do it backwards n i was told because its not fair to kids and new hunters. I wish we could fix and change it but Montanans are easily bought out. So sad but true. I am going to put 100 cash in mailed app next time.

I drew a sheep tag in 2017 in Montana as a resident. Last year I drew a good elk tag at the hunt expo. I drew two limited entry elk tags in the 10 years I lived in Montana. Luck is luck.

That's funny with the ?floating? sheep tag. Nothin like playing Russian roulette with no bullets in the wheel eh boys????


"That's a special feeling, Lloyd!?

www.s2outdoor.com
www.tojagrid.com
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCY8iBAgry-KrH49Tua4ftbA

I'm a non resident, I drew a 482 Breaks Bighorn Sheep tag this year, in 2006 I drew the Montana Elk Supertag. Prior to that I drew a 313 late season Gardiner migration bull tag when there was still a migration and before that a unit 410 Breaks rifle bull tag. As Stu said luck is luck, I've had more than my share!

Like the old saying goes...better to be lucky than good! BTW I hate hate you! Kidding, but really.
Don't hate the player hate the game right? It is like a roller coaster and I'll just keep paying my money and waiting in line.

Boy, Hillclimber is full of good info. mtmuley