NR Controlled Hunt Draw odds. My 2 cents...

willybbig · Mar 19, 2018

I was checking out the drawing odd for NR in Idaho. Idaho has the "UP TO 10%" of tags can go to Non Residents. With the massive in flux of people moving to Idaho and applying for Controlled hunt tags as residents, The odds of drawing a NR tag are becoming non existent. Check out the last couple years of NR that drew tags for Deer, Elk, Antelope...
Unless your going to hunt the general season in Idaho and pay for the License anyway, I think your odds are Better playing the Power Ball lottery.
MY 2 Cents,
Willybbig

Blank · Mar 19, 2018

You would be wrong too. A lot of my NR friends draw something every year; just have to pick wisely......

willybbig · Mar 19, 2018

I stand corrected, the odds for the "Unlimited Drawings" aren't to bad.

brdhuntr · Mar 19, 2018

>I stand corrected, the odds
>for the "Unlimited Drawings" aren't
>to bad.

Ah, another poor non-resident with their sad sad story, in fact it's the saddest story iv'e heard all day !!!

willybbig · Mar 19, 2018

Just stating the Facts and trying to help fellow hunters make a informed decision.

Deer · Mar 19, 2018

>Just stating the Facts and trying
>to help fellow hunters make
>a informed decision.

I like Idaho the way it is I have been lucky to draw two deer tags and one elk tag in the last eight years but was well worth the money.

andrew12gauge · Mar 19, 2018

>Just stating the Facts and trying
>to help fellow hunters make
>a informed decision.

If you want to state facts, the fact is that non residents still draw their allowed maximum of 10% in most every hunt

boise · Mar 19, 2018

Read your comments and then looked at 2017 draw odds. Once you get down to 40's non residents were hitting the 10% mark pretty consistently. Looks like the non residents didn't do so well with hunts that only offered 5-30 tags. 40,41,42,44 were right on money for 10%. Just looked at deer. Am I missing something?

willybbig · Mar 20, 2018

I may be looking at the incorrect drawing odds that are posted on the IDFG web site. In the far right column of their spread sheet is that where the NR tags that were drawn is located ?

brymoore · Mar 20, 2018

It's up to 10% for each species, not specific draw units.

3404barrel · Mar 23, 2018

LAST EDITED ON Mar-23-18 AT 06:40AM (MST)[p]LAST EDITED ON Mar-23-18 AT 06:38?AM (MST)

One true fact is that a non resident will never have a better chance (odds) of drawing a tag over a resident in Idaho. For example a controlled hunt has 100 tags.
And 200 residents apply with 10 NR applying as well. The resident has 45% odds of drawing if you subract the 10 tags that could go to NR. In turn, the 10 NR should have 100% chance of drawing one of those ten tags that COULD go to the NR applicants. And here is the Fish and Game magic. As u can see a NR has a better chance at drawing. So they will only give the NR applicants 4 tags which will drop the NR chance to draw odds to 40%, 4 of 10 tags. I don't understand why they do this???? ID fish and game complain about funding and NR are charged 10x the fees yet they won't give them (NR) 10% of the tags when they have a drawing odds in the NR favor.

N_Corey · Mar 23, 2018

NR tags have been selling out again for the past several years so fish and game know they have them priced right. I'd bet you'll see another fee increase in the next 5 years on them.

sticksender · Mar 23, 2018

The draw is not done separately for each hunt code one at a time. Speaking figuratively, names are drawn one at a time, from a hat of all names (NR+R), and hunts are filled until no tags are left. Subject to a NR ceiling of 10% of a species. And subject to a NR ceiling of not more than 10% of a hunt code. With the exception that NR's may draw 1 tag even if the total allocation for the hunt code is less than 10 tags. That last one is important, and a great benefit to NR's, because it allows NR's to draw a hunt even if there are only a couple tags allocated. Once the NR ceilings are met, they continue to draw names in the same manner, but any NR names drawn are simply thrown aside.

In your example, remember that residents are eligible to draw all 100 tags. There is not a "90% ceiling" on residents. It's a completely random draw, so this draw method means when there are only 10 NR's applying for a hunt that has 210 applicants, the odds for NR's to draw are not great. They may not, and probably won't, get their maximum of 10.

But to me, Idaho's system is the best possible system for NR's because it makes us eligible for every hunt code, and virtually guarantees that we will get very close to our statewide maximum ceiling of 10% allocation every year for every species.

BPKHunter · Mar 23, 2018

Always fun reading the uninformed make "statements" about our system.

andrew12gauge · Mar 23, 2018

>LAST EDITED ON Mar-23-18
>AT 06:40?AM (MST)
>
>LAST EDITED ON Mar-23-18
>AT 06:38?AM (MST)
>
>One true fact is that a
>non resident will never have
>a better chance (odds) of
>drawing a tag over a
>resident in Idaho. For example
>a controlled hunt has 100
>tags.
>And 200 residents apply with 10
>NR applying as well. The
>resident has 45% odds of
>drawing if you subract
>the 10 tags that could
>go to NR. In turn,
>the 10 NR should have
>100% chance of drawing one
>of those ten tags that
>COULD go to the NR
>applicants. And here is
>the Fish and Game magic.
>As u can see a
>NR has a better chance
>at drawing. So they
>will only give the
>NR applicants 4 tags which
>will drop the NR chance
>to draw odds to 40%,
> 4 of 10 tags.
>I don't understand why they
>do this???? ID fish and
>game complain about funding and
>NR are charged 10x the
>fees yet they won't give
>them (NR) 10% of the
>tags when they have a
>drawing odds in the NR
>favor.

This is patently false, IDFG doesn't set aside 4 tags out of the 10 available to nonresidents to match resident draw odds in your hypothetical situation. What happens is everybody is in the hopper so you have 210 applicants vying for 100 tags, but only 10 of those tags could possibly be drawn by the 10 nonresidents. Now they start pulling names from the hopper, any given name in that hopper has a 47.6% chance to be pulled. So mathematically it would make sense that out of 10 nonresidents about 4.67 will draw(sometimes it would be 4 others 5, anomalies happen and maybe only 3 of them draw or maybe 7 do). You're confusing real odds with IDFG somehow cheating the nonresident applicants.

andrew12gauge · Mar 23, 2018

Just for a fun exercise here you go.
Controlled hunt 1001, 1-1

60 tags 632 applicants so 9.49% draw odds

Residents 603 applicants draw 55 tags so 9.12% draw odds

Nonresidents 29 applicants draw 5 tags so 17.24% draw odds

By the incorrect assumptions that have been made in previous posts this is just not possible but like I stated above anomalies happen sometimes the odds get bucked. I literally found this example on the first line of deer draw odds for 2017. Tell me again how IDFG is cheating the Nonresidents

IdahoHntr · Mar 23, 2018

>Just for a fun exercise here
>you go.
>Controlled hunt 1001, 1-1
>
>60 tags 632 applicants so 9.49%
>draw odds
>
>Residents 603 applicants draw 55 tags
>so 9.12% draw odds
>
>Nonresidents 29 applicants draw 5 tags
>so 17.24% draw odds
>
>By the incorrect assumptions that have
>been made in previous posts
>this is just not possible
>but like I stated above
>anomalies happen sometimes the odds
>get bucked. I literally found
>this example on the first
>line of deer draw odds
>for 2017. Tell me again
>how IDFG is cheating the
>Nonresidents

Exactly! People complain when they don't even understand it. In 3504's example the nonresidents actually have the exact same odds of drawing a tag as a resident since the 10% nonresident limit will not be exceeded. Too many people think that the 10% guarantees nonresidents 10% of the tags, but it doesn't. It just cannot exceed 10%.

If you do your research in Idaho, as a nonresident your odds can rival those of residents on many tags and without a point system, the Idaho draw really gives people a chance of drawing every year. It's all good though. If you think its rigged or can't understand it, go apply somewhere else. It will make the odds better for us residents and nonresidents alike.

YZF_88 · Mar 23, 2018

LAST EDITED ON Mar-23-18 AT 06:30PM (MST)[p]Controlled hunt odds are indeed slim but sweet when it comes together! No different than most other states.

cabuck · Mar 23, 2018

Sticksender is correct but with one slight. The IDF&G also has no point system. With that fact, every year that they conduct the draw you are given a clean slate as to preference. You can skip numerous years and draw the best tag in the state or never draw a tag in your lifetime.
IDF&G also has numerous units for elk and deer that you can hunt OTC to utilize your hunting license that you need to apply for the draws. And if you are a bowhunter, well you can even get a pronghorn license.
IDF&G has a great system for non-residents to hunt their state IMO.

3404barrel · Mar 28, 2018

That makes more sense to me thanks for the clarification. So, how do they figure out those goat or sheep tags for res and NR when there is 2-5 tags in a unit?

IdahoHntr · Mar 28, 2018

>That makes more sense to me
>thanks for the clarification. So,
>how do they figure out
>those goat or sheep tags
>for res and NR when
>there is 2-5 tags in
>a unit?

Any hunt that issues less than 10 tags can have up to 1 NR draw a tag.

Where the Idaho draw odds get confusing is the fact that NRs are limited by the amount tags for the hunt and for the species as a whole. NRs can draw up to 10% of the tags available for each hunt, but they are also limited to only 10% of the tags available for each species. The second part isn't as big of a determining factor in the normal big game draws for deer, elk, and antelope, but you really have to pay attention to it in the moose, sheep, and goat draws.

twsnow18 · Mar 29, 2018

>IDF&G has a
>great system for non-residents to
>hunt their state IMO.

No doubt. I call them wal-mart tags.

No preference points, no left over tag bullshit, go to wal mart and buy a tag that would take 2 points to draw in surrounding states.

Shoot a 170 buck or a 280 bull. Non-residents do it every. single. year.

brymoore · Mar 29, 2018

>That makes more sense to me
>thanks for the clarification. So,
>how do they figure out
>those goat or sheep tags
>for res and NR when
>there is 2-5 tags in
>a unit?

For Trophy species, Rs and NRs are in the same pool. If a NR is picked out of the pool, it must meet two criteria to receive a tag. 1) Has the 10% NR quota been met? If not, 2) are there tags available in the unit?

If I was a NR, I'd start playing with how the draw odds change if I were to skip the most popular units (11&37).

andrew12gauge · Mar 31, 2018

>>That makes more sense to me
>>thanks for the clarification. So,
>>how do they figure out
>>those goat or sheep tags
>>for res and NR when
>>there is 2-5 tags in
>>a unit?
>
>
>For Trophy species, Rs and NRs
>are in the same pool.
> If a NR is
>picked out of the pool,
>it must meet two criteria
>to receive a tag. 1)
>Has the 10% NR quota
>been met? If not,
>2) are there tags available
>in the unit?
>
>If I was a NR, I'd
>start playing with how the
>draw odds change if I
>were to skip the most
>popular units (11&37).

You're close it's really more 3 things.
1) has the overall 10% nonresident quota been met?
2) has that particular hunt #'s 10% nonresident quota been met?
3) are there any remaining tags available in the unit?

Like I said you had it pretty close but I thought I'd clarify a little

brymoore · Apr 1, 2018

>>>That makes more sense to me
>>>thanks for the clarification. So,
>>>how do they figure out
>>>those goat or sheep tags
>>>for res and NR when
>>>there is 2-5 tags in
>>>a unit?
>>
>>
>>For Trophy species, Rs and NRs
>>are in the same pool.
>> If a NR is
>>picked out of the pool,
>>it must meet two criteria
>>to receive a tag. 1)
>>Has the 10% NR quota
>>been met? If not,
>>2) are there tags available
>>in the unit?
>>
>>If I was a NR, I'd
>>start playing with how the
>>draw odds change if I
>>were to skip the most
>>popular units (11&37).
>
>You're close it's really more 3
>things.
>1) has the overall 10% nonresident
>quota been met?
>2) has that particular hunt #'s
>10% nonresident quota been met?
>
>3) are there any remaining tags
>available in the unit?
>
>Like I said you had it
>pretty close but I thought
>I'd clarify a little

Is there a separate 10% limit per unit? Sheep unit 11 has one tag which is usually drew by a NR.

andrew12gauge · Apr 1, 2018

>>>>That makes more sense to me
>>>>thanks for the clarification. So,
>>>>how do they figure out
>>>>those goat or sheep tags
>>>>for res and NR when
>>>>there is 2-5 tags in
>>>>a unit?
>>>
>>>
>>>For Trophy species, Rs and NRs
>>>are in the same pool.
>>> If a NR is
>>>picked out of the pool,
>>>it must meet two criteria
>>>to receive a tag. 1)
>>>Has the 10% NR quota
>>>been met? If not,
>>>2) are there tags available
>>>in the unit?
>>>
>>>If I was a NR, I'd
>>>start playing with how the
>>>draw odds change if I
>>>were to skip the most
>>>popular units (11&37).
>>
>>You're close it's really more 3
>>things.
>>1) has the overall 10% nonresident
>>quota been met?
>>2) has that particular hunt #'s
>>10% nonresident quota been met?
>>
>>3) are there any remaining tags
>>available in the unit?
>>
>>Like I said you had it
>>pretty close but I thought
>>I'd clarify a little
>
>Is there a separate 10% limit
>per unit? Sheep unit
>11 has one tag which
>is usually drew by a
>NR.

Yes there is. So any unit with less than 10 tags is allowed up to 1 tag for nonresidents, but the 10% species cap still applies.

In the case of Rocky Mountain bighorns, nonresidents are allowed up to 6 total tags, since the majority of nonresident applicants apply in only a couple of hunts(11&37) the odds are there are 2(3? I think they split 37 into 2 different hunts now) of the 6 available nonresident tags gone right there. That doesn't leave many for other units

HUNTNNW · Apr 5, 2018

Last 6 years I have drawn 2 controlled deer tags , 2 elk.. my wife has also drawn the same and my buddy has drawn a deer.

mossyhorn · Apr 5, 2018

You're not making any idaho friends with that post! Haha...congrats. Much better luck than most. I have a friend from Nevada that has also drawn some great hunts here in Idaho the last couple years.

Oregonbased · Apr 8, 2018

I love Idaho! Drew my Moose in the 1st year applying for the species in Idaho 2017.

greatbasin · Apr 20, 2018

LAST EDITED ON Apr-20-18 AT 11:17AM (MST)[p]compared to other states ID is pretty dang fair to the NR folks. Just check out Oregon if you don't think so.
No offense intended, oregonbased.

carnicero · Apr 20, 2018

I'm a NR (prior to going into the USMC I was an ID resident, now I am in Utah). The OIL and elk/deer/antelope hunts I am looking at, with good trophy potential, success rates, and reasonable odds considering trophy potential, are just about at- if not above, NRs getting 10% of the tags. Yes, there are plenty of hunts that NRs don't draw any tags. It is vital to do your homework, and there is some luck beyond odds that is at play.