How Does Ca F&W calculate "estimated hunter success"?

Take X3a for example.
In 2013 there was a quota of 295 tags and 114 bucks taken reported(39%). Yet they estimated success was 80%?

In 2014 there was 275 tags and 83 bucks reported(30%). Estimated success at 60%?

In 2015 there was 314 tags and 129 bucks reported(41%). 57% estimated success.

I realize 2015 was the first year you HAD to report. Estimated numbers just seem inflated.

It makes it hard to get a good read on the zones success rate.

I do not work with deer but part of what the program does is use meat locker reports and compare them to tag returns. They will get the tag info from the meat locker and then compare that to returned tags and calculate a percent of people that obviously harvested a deer (meat locker) but did not report it (no returned tag). I think when this was originally set up they also used a phone survey at the same time to contact deer hunters and compare the responses from the phone survey to tag returns. I may not have that all phrased exactly or spot on but that is part of how they calculate hunter success.

Joe

Thank You Joe! That makes more sense now. I appreciate you taking the time to reply.

Joe is not correct. What the California F and G does is start off with the percent of hunters they estimate will actually be in the field. They then take that number and factor in how many tag holders have friends and family that have .22 caliber rifle to take part in the hunt. Now that a realistic percentage of hunters/family members will be in the field is established, they take into consideration the ethnicity of 30-60% of the tag holders/family/friends as that will be a direct contributor to the percentage of tags filled. The amount of bucks they figure will be harvested will then be multiplied by 50% because that is the estimated number of does that will also be harvested adding to the "estimated hunter success". They wait for all report cards to be turned in at the end of the season and then take those entries into consideration. The Warden then goes into his office and throws a dart at a poster that has a numbered graph from 0-100. What ever that dart lands on will be the "estimated hunter success" for any hunt where there are more than 50 tags allotted.

You're welcome....

Cancer doesn't discriminate...don't take your good health for granted because it can be gone in a heartbeat. Please go back and read the last line. This time really understand what it says.

Lol wiz. .
Bone

Wiz, I thought you would say, "They wait for all of the report cards to be turned in" and then flush them all down the hopper.