2017 bonus points data

mevertsen · Feb 16, 2018

Here is the 2017 data.

It is broken down now by choice and total applicants.

Don't look if you are already mad or haven't had your coffee!

http://www.ndow.org/Hunt/Resources/Bonus_Point_Data/

Bwht4x4 · Feb 16, 2018

The new format is very interesting and very telling. It paints a clearer picture on how dismal the draw odds are. The one clear take away I see is how few nonresidents in the max point pool are drawn. This is due mainly due to the fact that there are so many more people in the mid-point ranges and there are so few NR tags. I'm sitting at high points for most species, but not max, so we'll see how things go this year. Not holding my breath!

mevertsen · Feb 16, 2018

I was actually shocked by how many drew on 2_3_4 choice compared to their first choice.

I am somewhat of a nerd, so it's interesting to me. It won't change how I apply, but it sure didn't help my mood, lol.

I guess it shows that the biggest way to draw a tag is to get the low number.

oilcan · Feb 16, 2018

Looking at that I was extremely lucky to draw my Deer tag last year. But the chances of drawing another in a top unit are very unlikely.

Bwht4x4 · Feb 16, 2018

One way to reduce the number of applicants would be for NV to require all applicants to purchase a hunting license. I know of a few folks that don't care about collecting their bonus points and they simply apply for all their hunts and pay the application fees. One of my buddies did that and drew the PIW tag!

It wouldn't be a huge help, but it would reduce the competition a little.

Bwht4x4 · Feb 16, 2018

I keep looking at these data.

If I was a resident, my 16 elk pts would almost be a guaranteed draw for the hunt I want! Same for my deer hunts.

mevertsen · Feb 16, 2018

I think there are a lot of reasons for the "point creep".

I remember about 16 or so years ago when we could first apply online.

Prior to that, you would have to send in a check with full funds for the tags you applied for. No credit cards back then.

Then it changed to where you could apply for everything and only had to pay the application fees such that it is now.

We have also changed to where you can now apply for multiple categories within a species.

Before you could only apply for either cow or bull elk.

Now you can put in for depredation cow, rifle cow, management cow and bull or spike in the same period. You can also now apply for ewe and ram bighorn, and only be out a couple hundred dollars to do it.

I have thought several times of different ways it could help improve the odds.

Such as...

Limit to one trophy species app per year. CBS, dbs, rbs, goat, elk and bear.

Only apply for cow or bull, one time.

Freeze points where they are and only require you to apply for something every year to maintain all of your points.

List the draw order from lowest tags to highest.

You can only draw two tags max per year.

Set the order such as

Rbs
Goat
Bear
CBS
Dbs
Bull elk
Antelope
Buck deer
Cow elk
Spike elk
Doe deer
Doe pronghorn
Ewe sheep

These are ideas I have kicked around in my head. But like a lot of ideas that I get, I kick them out myself pretty early.

Another idea I had was to require full funds up front, like Wyoming still does. That might offset a lot.

For example, it would cost probably $2,000 for me and my daughter to apply for everything. This might work only if everyone could have their points frozen.

It seems to me that at least some tweaks need to be done, as the odds are just getting crazy.

Too few tags and too many people to apply for them with little concern of the cost.

Twoshooter · Feb 16, 2018

I turned my pronghorn tag back in last year due to work conflicts thinking I would be able to get again this year. Might not ever get it again after looking at those odds.
Just not enough tags to go around. I started some of my kids with points in NV but I think I am done putting them in for points. There is no price break for NR youth and it is pretty expensive for such a long shot. I dont know if even a 30 year plan for my kids would ever pay out. I will still put them in, but not get the license and give up the points. The only way it would pay out is if they one day moved to Nevada.

nitis · Feb 16, 2018

WOW talk about data overload

How much of that data is really even relevant though. I have not dug into it really deep yet but just glancing over it makes you realize just how impossible it is to calculate any kind of odds. I mean I see hunts that people put as their 5th choice that I wouldn't consider using my first choice on because the odds are so long. Do those people just not understand how the draw works or do they really have 4 other choices they feel are better

what I would love to see is some sort of data that shows the order of how the tags are filled. Meaning if you have hunts ABCDE which fill up first then have the same for a few years to compare that and then maybe you could come up with something to get an edge

mevertsen · Feb 17, 2018

>I turned my pronghorn tag back
>in last year due to
>work conflicts thinking I would
>be able to get again
>this year. Might not
>ever get it again after
>looking at those odds.
>Just not enough tags to go
>around. I started some
>of my kids with points
>in NV but I think
>I am done putting them
>in for points. There
>is no price break for
>NR youth and it is
>pretty expensive for such a
>long shot. I dont know
>if even a 30 year
>plan for my kids would
>ever pay out. I will
>still put them in, but
>not get the license and
>give up the points.
>The only way it would
>pay out is if they
>one day moved to Nevada.
>

That was changed this year as well. The 12-17 hunt/fish combo is now $15 for resident and nonresident alike! I am pretty excited about that. I can get my daughter her stuff for pretty cheap.

mevertsen · Feb 17, 2018

>WOW talk about data overload
>
>How much of that data is
>really even relevant though.
>I have not dug into
>it really deep yet but
>just glancing over it makes
>you realize just how impossible
>it is to calculate any
>kind of odds. I
>mean I see hunts that
>people put as their 5th
>choice that I wouldn't consider
>using my first choice on
>because the odds are so
>long. Do those people
>just not understand how the
>draw works or do they
>really have 4 other choices
>they feel are better
>
>what I would love to see
>is some sort of data
>that shows the order of
>how the tags are filled.
> Meaning if you have
>hunts ABCDE which fill up
>first then have the same
>for a few years to
>compare that and then maybe
>you could come up with
>something to get an edge
>
I got to thinking about that as well. It shows how many total people out it down for every choice, but no way to tell exactly who drew on what combination of applications.

Could you imagine listing 50,000 application in the order their choices were put down and the order they were drawn, plus marking where each tag was drawn on each application?

nitis · Feb 17, 2018

>>I turned my pronghorn tag back
>>in last year due to
>>work conflicts thinking I would
>>be able to get again
>>this year. Might not
>>ever get it again after
>>looking at those odds.
>>Just not enough tags to go
>>around. I started some
>>of my kids with points
>>in NV but I think
>>I am done putting them
>>in for points. There
>>is no price break for
>>NR youth and it is
>>pretty expensive for such a
>>long shot. I dont know
>>if even a 30 year
>>plan for my kids would
>>ever pay out. I will
>>still put them in, but
>>not get the license and
>>give up the points.
>>The only way it would
>>pay out is if they
>>one day moved to Nevada.
>>
>
>
>That was changed this year as
>well. The 12-17 hunt/fish
>combo is now $15 for
>resident and nonresident alike!
>I am pretty excited about
>that. I can get
>my daughter her stuff for
>pretty cheap.

I assume though that youth tags will still be exclusive to resident youth? And non resident youth in the big pond and pay full non res price should they draw a tag?

mevertsen · Feb 17, 2018

Correct in that the youth tags are for only resident. I was responding to the cost comment. The hunt license is $15.

Twoshooter · Feb 17, 2018

It was a smart move to change the price for NR youth. They probably realized that they were missing future NR contributors to the system. I will still play the game.

lostinOregon · Feb 17, 2018

Nevada is pretty stingy with their NR tags. I view it as a raffle drawing and really don't plan anything around it. I am hoping to get a elk tag once in my lifetime and have changed my deer process for more opportunity instead of once in a lifetime. I don't think it is going to get better, so cross your fingers.

Rich

Killcarp2 · Feb 17, 2018

definately interesting to look at these statistics. So few tags it seems but it seems like there are more and more hunters in the woods every year (and I am not a road hunter). Perhaps it is because of some of the overlapping seasons and the delk tags.