WY PP going into the 2014 draw

HornedToad

HornedToad

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LAST EDITED ON Oct-15-13 AT 04:28PM (MST)[p]Wyoming has posted its update of preference points (PP) holders going into the 2014 draw. I will run my model later predicting the median year in which each point class could expect to draw a non-resident bighorn permit.

For now, an observation that the attrition rate among the top point classes remains relatively low. There were 489 non-residents in the top five points classes (14PP thru 18PP) eligible for the 2013 draw. Of these, 44 drew permits, leaving 445. Of these, 16 dropped out, for an attrition rate of 3.6%, leaving 429 eligible for the 2014 draw.

(A) 2013 PP
(B) No. of non-residents eligible for 2013 draw
(C) 2013 draw
(D) 2013 attrition
(E) No. of non-residents eligible for 2014 draw
(F) 2014 PP

14 151 (06) (06) 139 15
15 133 (07) 03 129 16
16 098 (13) (06) 079 17
17 085 (15) (04) 066 18
18 022 (03) (03) 016 19

Of the 22 non-residents with MAX-PP (18) going into the 2013, 3 drew permits and 3 dropped out, leaving 16 non-residents with MAX-PP (19) going into the 2014 draw.

Here is the link to the Wyoming PP data:

http://wgfd.wyo.gov/web2011/Departments/Hunting/pdfs/TOTAL_PREF_POINTS_MS_130004686.pdf

HT
 
HT,
I am always dazzled by your statistical wizardry. I can't wait for your final analysis. I am baffled that any top point holders drop out, but maybe old guys just die or give up?
I will wait patiently for your post!
 
I have updated my model to predict the median year each point class could expect to draw a non-resident bighorn permit in the future years draw.

Listed below are (A) Number of Preference Points, (B) Number of Non-Res. Sportspersons, (C) Predicted Median Year to Draw, and (D) change from prediction of previous year:

(A) (B) (C) (D)

01 1122 2051 na
02 748 2049 (+2)
03 705 2047 (+2)
04 500 2045 (+2)
05 452 2043 (+2)
06 446 2040 (+1)
07 411 2038 (0)
08 380 2036 (0)
09 360 2035 (0)
10 430 2033 (0)
11 485 2030 (+1)
12 478 2028 (+1)
13 433 2026 (+2)
14 436 2024 (+2)
15 139 2020 (+1)
16 129 2018 (+1)
17 079 2017 (+1)
18 066 2016 (+1)
19 016 2015 (+1)

The Median Year can be thought of as the average year in which a person in a given PP class could expect to draw. Half would draw before the median while half would draw after. In general, those drawing earlier than the median will be applying in secondary (or less in demand) units, while those drawing later will be applying in primary (or most in demand) units.

The Predicted Median Year to Draw is based on a model that includes a number of assumptions, including (a) that the number of permits offered in the Non-Resident preference point draw remains constant at the current level, and (b) the annual attrition rate in each PP class (those dropping out of the draw) remains consistent with the average of the previous three years. Obviously, if either of these assumptions are off, the predicted years to draw would change measurably.

The annual attrition rates assumed in the above model remain significant. For the 2013 draw, the actual attrition rate was lower for all points classes compared to the model prediction, which was based on a weighted average of the previous three years. Perhaps the improving economy caused more applicants to be willing to give up their $100 to buy another point. This lower rate of attrition is the reason most point classes saw an additional year or two added to their expected median year to draw a tag.

For example, the attrition rate for the top five point classes (now 15 thru 19) averaged 5.8% annually over the past three years, but was only 3.6% for 2013. For the second cohort (10 thru 14) the average attrition for the past three years was slightly higher at 5.9%, but was 4.8% for 2013. For the lower point classes (4 thru 9) the average attrition had been 12.0% per year, but for 2013 was only 6.1%. For now, more participants are choosing to stay with the preference points draw, which will only increase the number of years to draw a permit. As noted before, sheep hunters are an optimistic lot.

Small changes in attrition rates can make a big difference in the number of future applicants for permits, particularly when the compounding of years is taken into account. As predicted earlier, this can only mean that the average age of the hunters drawing Wyoming sheep permits is only going to keep going up. This may be why so many of the Wyoming sheep hunters on the Outdoor Channel shows are old, overweight guys, who have to count on being able to make 1000 yard shots with fancy sniper rifles to take a ram. But as noted before, I doubt that the sheep care much, one way or the other, and the state of Wyoming must be loving all the extra revenue, making over $780K in 2013 alone on non-resident sheep points. What a bonanza!

Good luck to all in the 2014 Draw.

Horned Toad
 
Dammit HT! You promised me I'd draw by 2023 and you keep up'ing the year! What's up with that? LMAO

OK, really.
Thanks HT for your dedication to the statistics and your willingness to keep us informed. I always appreciate your clinical analysis and your easy-to-understand formulaic application.
Still waiting to draw,
Zeke

LBH,
Those 3 top points holders dropped out alright, they died!!!
You forget how old we're all getting!!!
 
LAST EDITED ON Oct-16-13 AT 11:42AM (MST)[p]Very nice HT! Hopefully OTHER sheep hunters will start to get discouraged. I know Zeke never will!

Zeke, being a few years older than you, I can only hope to be physically present in 2023! LOL
I would love to accompany my son on his hunt. I think he has about the same points, but then again, will my legs still carry me that far in 10 or 15 years? Ohhhh. More weights and more stairs!
 
There is a unit in which I could have drawn but they don't seem to ever harvest sheep there. Seems counter-productive to apply there. Maybe that's one of the units HT says is a "lesser" unit! I guess maybe it's my best/only chance to have a tag in the Cowboy State. Crappy unit, here I come...after I draw a moose tag.
LBH, You've been looking pretty dang good for some time now. Whatever you're doing must be working. Keep it up and go with Spence when it's his turn.
Zeke
 
LAST EDITED ON Oct-16-13 AT 12:56PM (MST)[p]First of all, great info!

So, I only have 5 points....should I just quit now?

Is it easier or harder to draw as a resident (with same amount of points)
 
It depends on how many years you have left on your biological-clock. If you are under 35, you probably should hang in there. If you are over 40, with only five points, you probably don't have enough years left before your health and fitness give out. Of course, everyone is different. One of the reasons I stick with this is that the mere possibility of drawing a sheep tag in any given year gives me a motivation to stay in shape that would be hard to replicate otherwise.

I'm about to turn 61, and am among those 66 non-residents with 18 points going into the 2014 draw. So I will have to hope to draw my Wyoming sheep tag in the next few years. I believe I am still strong enough to get up the mountain, but there is no way that I am as strong now as I was ten years ago, or even five.

Time waits for no man.

Good luck!

HT
 
LOL!
You're certainly correct HT. I just hit 60 while elk hunting. I had to backpack out 2 elk this year and it gets tougher every year for sure.
I'm still looking forward though and I've made plans for the future that I'm sure I won't see. ....but if I live that long, at least I'll have plans rather than just kicking the dog!
LBH is correct. I won't drop out until I "drop" out.
Zeke
 
I turn 32 this week and will keep buying points...I was just whining cause its really depressing!

Also, I already have trouble climbing the mountain! I need to change something or I won't be packing anything at 60. Good for you guys.
 
LAST EDITED ON Oct-16-13 AT 06:38PM (MST)[p]Zeke alluded to the fact that I have been keeping in much better shape the last several years (prior to being afflicted with Ovisitus). Like HT sheep hunting or even possibilities to sheep hunt is keeping me way fitter than I used to be. I like myself much better when I am in sheep shape, so I am trying to keep reasonably close for when "the bell sounds for my time in the ring".
So if you are willing to buy a lifetime gym membership and use it, keep applying. You would never want to trip over the rope climbing into the ring! ha.
Good luck to all
 
One of the interesting things to do every year is to revisit the annual burn-off of PP for the Wyoming non-resident bighorn draw. Listed below are (A) Year, (B) MAX PP (19 going into 2014), (C) Top 5 PP classes (15 thru 19 going into 2014), and (D) MAX-5 PP (14 going into 2014):

(A) (B) (C) (D)

1995 1421
1996 1086
1997 0848
1998 0741
1999 0638
2000 0537
2001 0455
2002 0397
2003 0330
2004 0282
2005 0236 1295 1380
2006 0191 1168 1258
2007 0139 1052 0816
2008 0093 0930 0706
2009 0055 0819 0604
2010 0045 0740 0549
2011 0032 0659 0494
2012 0027 0568 0473
2013 0022 0489 0454
2014 0016 0429 0436

I believe that 2005 was the first year that Wyoming began publishing the PP distribution table, as I don't have that data for 1995 thru 2004. I also believe that 2007 was the year the annual cost for a PP was stepped up from $7 to $100, and the allocation of permits to the preference point draw was reduced from 100% to 75%, which explains the large fall-off in participation for the MAX-5 class that year. As most here know, 2000 was the year that Wyoming began providing for a points-only draw option, which led to a significant increase in applicants. From 1995 thru 1999, an applicant had to front the full-cost of the bighorn tag fee with the application, and then wait for a refund if not drawn, which served to limit the number of applicants.

Interesting history of this program.
 
Interesting numbers, one has to wonder how many of the top point holders know they don't have the ability to make the hunt but refuse to give up. that would be me I suppose if I were older. it makes no sense to hold onto points that could get you a tag unless you're young, and most top point holders aren't.

In a nutshell I'm saying I suspect many of the top point holders may never use them .

I'll be 52 next year and I hold 16 NR points. I know I'm not getting in better shape so I can't draw soon enough.
















Stay thirsty my friends
 
I am in the same boat as you 440. Sitting on 15 NR PP for sheep and moose while being 49 years old and maybe in another 15-20 years I might draw a tag. Then, I'll be too damn old to climb those tall hills in the thin air... Question is, do I keep pumping money into the Wyoming PP system with hope of drawing a tag someday when I'm too old, or do I throw in the towel now and save my PP money for another kind of hunt down the road???
 
You have to stay in, you should draw in the next 5-10 years if you're flexible on where you hunt.


I am putting in for units off the top list, I'd love to hunt 5 but I'll be tripping over my beard before I have the points to draw.

Toads numbers as he says doesn't take into account the odds by unit just the overall odds. if you look at the demand index you'll see things are far from hopeless for you if you apply in the right place. while I have my preferences on where I hunt there is no bad ram tag to have in your pocket.

Stay with it you won't regret it.














Stay thirsty my friends
 
I'm 57 and got 15 NR PP, sure wish I had started a couple years sooner! Hoping I can get lucky in the random draw in the next couple of years while I still think I can do a DIY hunt. Otherwise I will probably end up hiring a guide to haul my sorry old butt around the mountains. (assuming I draw before I'm dead)
 
Unless you're a resident you're probably going to need a guide anyway because of the wilderness law.

There are a few units like area 1 you might be able to draw in the next year or two. you're not going to get a booner in WY anyway so I'd put in for the hunt I'm most likely to draw that has a decent success rate.

A note on success rates, I've had several outfitters tell me to expect to see the rates drop . not because they can't find sheep but because their clients are mostly getting to the age they are not getting where they need to be in time. I don't want to be one of those statistics so I'm willing to lower my sights a little to get'er done.















Stay thirsty my friends
 
I'm 34 and sitting on 10 points. From the year I started putting in over 80% of my fellow "applicants" have dropped off. I'm a bit more optomistic than what HT calculates though I will admit his calculations are probably more scientific.

That said, I should draw within the next 20 years and I should be able to chase sheep when I'm 54. That said, many things can and will change between now and then.

"Whatever you are, be a good one."
- Abraham Lincoln
 
LAST EDITED ON Oct-24-13 AT 12:16PM (MST)[p]Thanks for the info, I look forward to it every year even if your model has me waiting to draw at age 57!
 
I think 440sixpack is correct.
Most likely the success rates will drop and if the Wyo G&F has their eye on the ball we'll probably see an increase in tags issued because of it.
Some of us are getting older and it might be a good thing for the rest of you. We'll either draw of die and either way we're out of your path to a sheep tag!
Good luck to us all!
Zeke
 
>You just dashed my brother's hopes
>upon the rocks. Ignorance was
>bliss :)

LOL, you mean HT just saved your brother $100 per year that he can put toward another hunt! There are just some hunts that a guy will never be able to do.

I'll fall into the group who just hangs on, keeps accruing points, and then when I finally draw I won't be able to go (at least go very hard)! 440sixpack brought this point up and it sure is valid.

Zeke
 
LAST EDITED ON Oct-27-13 AT 01:28PM (MST)[p]Yeah we hoped he'd draw before he's too old but at 50 with 6 NR points, he'll not be in sheep shape unless we stumble onto the fountain of youth or the Delorean. Count one NR out of the pool.

I'm at 16 residents points so we'll have to relish every last minute of that trip when the time comes. Thanks for the number crunching. Indeed it'll save a few wallets.
 
Has been a few years but when I last ran the numbers, the random draw odds to obtain a ram tag for a non-max nonresident in the WY sheep draw was comparable to several other states such as ID and MT re odds for a sheep tag. If that is still the case then WY is a state to consider for sheep applications.

Keep in mind some states have ewe tags if you want to hunt sheep sooner rather than later.
 
+1 it can't hurt putting in for a random draw area. Sometimes you never know...might get lucky...someone has to. Basic statistics...more areas applied for higher overall odds. Most people don't realize you add all the percentages together to get your overall odds of drawing at least something. Say you applied for six tags in various states with the individual odds of 2%, 1.5%, 1%, 3%, 2%, and 1.5%. Your overall odds of drawing one tag out of that pool is 11%...not bad now!
 
Its been a while since my statistics class in college, but that can't be right. If I apply to three elk draws of 20%, 40% and 40% do I have a 100% chance of drawing?
 
The NR random draw for WY sheep....as far as being a wise cost investment....I'd rate it "marginal" at best. The choice of spending the 114.00 each year probably depends on your sheep hunting goals and expectations.

Random draw odds for the non-wilderness hunt run roughly in the 1:200 range. Not great, considering the annual cost to apply. If you entered every year for 40 years your total app cost would be about $15,000.00 (assuming 3% annual inflation). Sadly, your total odds to draw over that 40 year period would be only about 1:5. Personally I consider that pee-poor odds for a $15k investment. With that same $15k I'd have a big chunk of the cost to buy an Alberta hunt. And of course the Alberta hunt can be scheduled at my convenience instead of randomly awaiting a long-shot draw that may never come.

In spite of the inconvenient truth revealed by the math, I continue to apply in the random draw. I guess I'm a gambler at heart ;-)
 
goldhunter- Assuming the 3 elk draws are independent, here are the 4 possible outcomes, with their odds of occurring:

you draw 1 tag: 45.6%
you draw 2 tags: 22.4%
you draw 3 tags: 3.2%
you draw no tags: 28.8%

You will notice these add up to 100%. One of the above 4 results must occur, since there are no other possible outcomes.

Notice also that if you did the math using the above percentages, you would figure to draw 10 tags every 10 years, on average.
 
It will cost 1 big bucket of pure gold! haha

An Alberta hunt is already a very pricey proposition. I shutter to think what it will cost in 40 years... when Im 100 years old!

We all have to remember that not everyone who wants a tag will have one. The demand out-stripped the supply long ago!

Zeke
 
I think a sportsman that applies smartly, and stays the course, will draw 2-3 sheep tags in a lifetime...worst case.

Catch some luck in the draws...maybe more.

Someone draws...every single year.
 
Plus one Buzz,

IF (big if) you apply every year in every State that offers tags. The MAYBE 2 or 3 in a lifetime.

If a guy doesn't stay the course he'll be super lucky to ever get even 1.

Good luck to us all! (I've had my share of luck and always plan for more)

Zeke
 
Zeke,

Agreed, most get discouraged and quit applying, skip years, only apply for points, etc.
 
So how long is a lifetime of applying?
I've been efforting a desert sheep ticket for over 40 years, yet I have not drawn. I missed one year on the points in one state because I initially didn't think they meant all that much. (silly me) I apply in two states for deserts and yes, I will get at least one tag in the next two years.
So, IMO, it's all about will. There's no sure way of snagging any tags without a significant consistent investment...and even then it's a crap shoot!
 
lbh,

IME, desert sheep are much easier to draw than rockies...only took me 11 years.

I'd say a lifetime is from the time you can apply until you check out...and I still think 2-4 sheep tags is a certainity if you keep at it.
 
LAST EDITED ON Dec-12-13 AT 12:45PM (MST)[p]">IME, desert sheep are much easier
>to draw than rockies...only took
>me 11 years."
>
>I'd say a lifetime is from
>the time you can apply
>until you check out...and I
>still think 2-4 sheep tags
>is a certainity if you
>keep at it.

OK Buzz, now you're just rubbing noses in it!

Your experience might bare this out for YOU Buzz but your luck is the exception rather than the rule! The odds for desert sheep are tougher and they are the most coveted NA big game animal. Because of demand v availability they are harder to draw than rocky's.

I think you're also a sheep of two high on your guessitmation of a lifetime of applications, but this point is up for debate since it boils down to a matter of chance.

A guy should jump into the game any time he can but don't suggest that a guy will, or even could, draw the tag you had in 11 years! Odds say 100 to 1 that he won't even if he plays the game hard.

Zeke

I'll add this: when you factor in LUCK, anything could happen. Good luck to us all but especially for me!
 
Zeke,

That post was all toungue-in-cheek.

I still believe that sheep tags will come a persons way in NV, WY, and CO.

The rest of the states it really is how you play the game and putting yourself in position to at least have a chance in the draw being the key. Applying only for PP is a dead end road, applying for only the top units, another dead end road.

I think 3 tags are all but a certainity if you apply smartly, and the 4th will come via enough applications on a random draw (again applying smartly in the randon pool).

I've drawn too many tags in too many states, and I'm not that lucky.

A person has to work the percentages to "win" the draw game...
 
Buzz,
For guys that got in within 5 years or so of the ground floor, you are probably correct. But anyboy just starting to apply today really has to think about sheep tags like lottery tickets. Sure, somebody will win, and it can be you. But like Dave Ramsey says, "Lotteries are just a tax on people who can't do math". And yes, I still play the tag lotteries in a few states.

If you have no points in states even like WY, CO, and NV, it will be a very, very long time before those points have any hope of paying off. And when it statistically will take between 50-100 years to draw a tag, you better hope your parents starting putting you in for these tags while you were in diapers.

All of these points states, even WY, work on a flawed premise. As more and more new hunters understand the systems, they will advocate for changes, and changes to these systems have been the norm over the years, not the exceptions. In in every case, the changes have made the draw odds worse, not better, for people who have invested in points. Sure, keep dreaming, and anybody can win the lottery. I hope it will be me, of course. That is what keeps all of us throwing money at such a long shot.
Bill
 
One thing we have to remember is that many of the top tier point holders are "older" dudes like me. I don't have 20 more "sheep" years in me! I'll eventually have to let my points go by the wayside. Sad but true!
I'm just glad the sheep draws and other sheep hunts have been so very good to me. My first sheep hunt was in 1980 and many followed. I've been the lucky one for sure!
Take solice young hunters, many of us will be too old.... Someday but not yet. Ha
I'd like to get one more ram in Wyoming and after that......
Zeke
 
Thanks HT, I always look forward to reading your projections and analysis. I'm feeling optimistic for a few reasons. #1, my son and I, both with 15 points, can see the light at the end of the tunnel, so to speak. Also, it is heartening to see other applicants in our point pool starting to draw tags. It is good motivation to get in really good shape for a sheep hunt in only a few more years. Most of all, I get to go twice since my son should draw his tag by his early 30s.

Again, thanks for all the work you put into this draw prediction every year. I, and a lot of others on here, truly appreciate you efforts.
 
Guys,
I'll throw in my 2 cents here. I started applying in Wyoming when I was 25 becuase I read way too many shhep hunting books.
Last year, 15 years later, I decided that I needed to sheep hunt soon! Being in my late 40's now, things start to change as well as perspective's. I put in for a " middle " type unit because I wanted to hunt sooner than later. I made the best decision of my life as words can NOT describe how much I enjoyed that hunt!
I will tell ya that Zeke was Spot On with his comments about sheep hunting. For me, I'm glad I got to hunt, took the best ram I saw amd enjoyed some of the finest scenery Wyoming has to offer. Include good people and good times and I think you have your answer. Good luck to all you guys still in the draw..... It will happen one day and when that day happens, enjoy all of it as it most likely won't happen again. Not the destination.... the journey!
 
I have been applying in most of the western states and Alaska for 20+ years for sheep permits, and have drawn one tag, a bighorn sheep tag in Colorado in 1996, for which I am most grateful. Along the way, I have given up applying in California, Oregon and Washington, due to the extremely limited allocations of sheep permits to non-residents compared to the high cost of applying, but have kept after it in most of the other states.

I am currently among the 66 non-residents with 18 points in Wyoming, and so hope to remain fit enough long enough to draw at least one more sheep permit before finally calling it a day. But I agree with those who find Zeke's estimate of drawing three to four public permits over a sheep hunting career to be overly optimistic. If Zeke has pulled that off, congratulations, but it may be because he began applying back in the 70's and 80's when the competition for sheep permits was not so intense. I can remember dimly when we thought that draw odds of one-in-twenty were terrible, but most would be ecstatic with such odds today.

Good luck to all in the coming draws!

HT
 
Actually HT, that was BuzzH who said a guy would draw 3-4 in a lifetime. I feel like, and stated, the number was more like two (2) or 3 if a guy is as dedicated as you.

It looks like you'll draw 2, maybe 3, and that's about right.

I've drawn 3 and might, hopefully, draw another one. I've been at it a long long time too. I finally hit the big six-0 this year and started sheep applications way back in the day when the odds were better.

Like I've said a dozen times; not everyone will get a tag. There's never been a time (in the last 60 years) when a guy could count on a sheep tag. The demand far exceeds the supply. Period! Simple math will show that even the most dedicated applicant will probably go without!

Always interesting to discuss.

Zeke
 
Looking back it is not to bad. Many that started 20 years ago will likely draw a few tags. Looking forward it is not very good and only going to get worse. If I had to start now it is like winning the lottery.
 
>Looking back it is not to
>bad. Many that started
>20 years ago will likely
>draw a few tags.
>Looking forward it is not
>very good and only going
>to get worse. If
>I had to start now
>it is like winning the
>lottery.

Gold,
That is SO true!

I started 40 years ago, and have made +HUNDREDS of applications, so I guess a guy needs to be the judge of how many tags he'll draw if he stays on the program. The answer is: NOT VERY MANY.... IF ANY!

But hey, somebody has to draw!

Zeke
 
Zeke - sorry for tagging you with another guy's claim. I also am in my 60's, and keep after the sheep applications primarily because they give me a good motivation to try to stay fit.

I do plan to cash in my Wyoming points for a sheep tag in the next few years. And I remain convinced that someday I will get lucky and draw a tag in an area, say in Montana, New Mexico or somewhere, with a chance for a 190 pt. ram. So that would bring me to 3 tags. Not bad! And on track with BuzzH's prediction.

Stay fit, my friend.

HT
 
Buzz, I hope you do. I like your hunting stories and Pics!
That's sheep hunter's optimism! Many of us share that trait.

HT, It's a great fitness motivator for me as well. I KNOW I'll have more than a couple sheep hunts in my future. I have a son who will soon draw in Utah and he's getting close in a couple other States??.

Fun stuff!

Zeke
 
Got pulled into this thread and found the perceptions versus the math interesting. I am 45 and started getting serious about apps in my mid to late 20's. If you started 20 years ago I would agree that someone diligent applying in the easiest to draw areas might draw 3 or 4 tags in a lifetime. Unlucky guys might draw only 1. If you started now however I think the lucky guy might draw 1 or 2 and the unlucky none. I have drawn one sheep tag in my life but it was a good one and I was lucky enough to draw a great area and kill a 190 ram. I have also been lucky enough to help others who drew sheep tags in so so areas. There are lots of areas that are good hunts and lots of fun but just dont produce large rams. I dont put in for those type units but as I would rather see someone who has not had the chance to hunt sheep draw than myself unless it is in an area with great sheep. So I will put in for Montana, Nevada desert, Arizona, New Mexico and various raffles and probably not draw another although I think I will. I quit other states with lots of points and some lucky guy will get a tag that would have been mine. Meanwhile I will be happy to help on a few sheep hunts and if I draw I will be ecstatic. Good luck to all!
 
I think your "realistic" view is very accurate Mr. Romulus. I am an old guy and have drawn one sheep tag and given the point structure, I will draw at least one more in the next two years. That being said, I will not count on any more in my lifetime. Perhaps lightning will strike again, but I won't count on it.
I too, find great joy in accompanying others on their ovis quest. Nothing makes my blood pulse faster than massive twisted horns, even without a weapon in my hands.
 
So what are these numbers going to look like if residents get their way with this newly introduced bill, and the non-resident allocation is dropped to 10%?
 
Oak, looks like it'll mean the preference point draw is history for all NR holding less than 14 points today. The wait for everyone with 12 points and under, would be 40 years and up.
 
>So what are these numbers going
>to look like if residents
>get their way with this
>newly introduced bill, and the
>non-resident allocation is dropped to
>10%?

I think you'll see an exodus from the Wyoming points treadmill.
It will all depend on how long guys are willing to wait... and can wait.
My sheep hunting years are numbered so if the split changes I know most guys in my shoes are history.
One thing is constant; Change
Zeke
 
Here's what it would look like under the proposed allocation. I don't think the several thousand people with less than 12 points will continue to vie for 2 tags at $100 a year, with zero chance of ever drawing a preference point tag.

WYsheepquota_zps4a010e37.jpg
 
Good info. I'm probably one of the most hard-core, enter-everything type of guys around, but I can safely say that would cause me to drop out of the WY draws completely.

WY is already the most expensive draw in the west to enter as a NR. An app for elk, sheep, goat, moose, bison, and points only for pronghorn and deer costs a grand total 371.00 non-refundable per year for a NR, even when no tags are drawn. That much money over a 20-year span would pay for a damn nice hunt somewhere!
 
LAST EDITED ON Jun-14-14 AT 06:33AM (MST)[p]LAST EDITED ON Jun-14-14 AT 06:32?AM (MST)

Have you analyzed the 2014 draw results? And when can we expect an update? (Apologies if it's out there and I overlooked it.)

I do something similar in other States for other species, by not as rigorously. You've described it in sufficient detail that I think I could put a spreadsheet together.

Utah changed their application rules for non-residents, in 2009 I believe. Prior to that time non-residents could apply for only one species. Most hunters wanted deer and elk, so antelope were the 'poor cousin' and the odds were somewhat reasonable. About 2009 Utah allowed non-residents to apply for all species. The number of NR applicants for antelope increase tenfold to about 3,400 hunters, who all received one point that year. With so few permits every year for non-residents, those hunters will never live long enough for a tag, the few random tags notwithstanding.
 

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Member Gallery Photos and Videos!

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droptine buck.jpg
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2022 CA Muley, 6 x 5 and 32" wide
Awesome Muley
Super Deep Forked Idaho Muley
luke deer.JPG
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nm bull.jpg
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