Wy Preference Point totals going into 2017 draw

The page says 2017 but the pdf is still 2016 info :-(

"Whatever you are, be a good one."
- Abraham Lincoln
 
The Wyoming Preference Point totals going into the 2017 draw are out: https://wgfd.wyo.gov/hunting/preference-points.

I will try to update my prediction model for non-resident Bighorn Sheep later this week, but some observations for now:

+ The Maximum Point class (22) experienced an attrition of 8.3% as 1 applicant dropped out, leaving 11 going into the 2017 draw out of the 12 left following the drawing of 1 permit by 13 applicants going into the 2016 draw.

+ For the five highest PP classes (18 thru 22) there was a healthy 5.0% attrition as 14 applicants dropped out, leaving 266 going into the 2017 draw out of the 280 left following the drawing of 39 permits by 319 applicants going into the 2016 draw.

+ For the next ten PP classes (8 thru 17) there was a slimmer 3.4% attrition as only 135 applicants dropped out, leaving 3,805 going into the 2017 draw out of 3,940 left following the drawing of 4 permits by 3,944 applicants going into the 2016 draw.

Good luck to all in 2017!

HT
 
"So you're saying there's a chance"

Thanks HT. I always appreciate your efforts and insight.

My thought:
There are over 50 thousand applicants for sheep and moose in Wyoming. Only a very small fraction of those will ever be graced with a permit, ever. There are no shortcuts to getting a Wyoming tag.

I suspect the attrition rate among the top point tiers will stay relatively steady since dudes like me are getting old and health and wealth will continue to get in the way for many! I suspect this is why we see so many applicants only purchase points instead of applying for a hunt.

I know the mountains are getting steeper for me!

Zeke
 
We need a Stock Market Crash. ??. I have the data from 2005 to present and it is amazing how the number of NR applicants in the sheep draw dropped in the 2007-2009 period and stayed down for several years. I will try to post it in the next few days.
 
Friends - One of my computers crashed a few months ago. I didn't realize it at the time, but the hard drive on that computer held my projection model, which now appears to be lost. I've looked for a backup file, but without success. So, for now, I'm out of the projection game. Perhaps some other MM member can come up with an alternative. My regrets - HT
 
But, but Obie Wan - you were our only hope. ?

Dang HT hope you can find it. Always appreciate your efforts.
 
LAST EDITED ON Dec-15-16 AT 11:33AM (MST)[p]>Friends - One of my computers
>crashed a few months ago.
>I didn't realize it at
>the time, but the hard
>drive on that computer held
>my projection model, which now
>appears to be lost. I've
>looked for a backup file,
>but without success. So, for
>now, I'm out of the
>projection game. Perhaps some other
>MM member can come up
>with an alternative. My regrets
>- HT

Well Mr HT,
It was a good model and very revealing and informative!
It was instrumental in tipping me toward the unit in which I drew last year
Too bad we've lost your predictions forever but hopefully we don't lose YOU!
Thanks, from me and many other I'm sure, for what you did!
It was a damn good run!
Zeke
 
From the Archives.
Below is a chart showing the number of NR applicants with ANY PPs for sheep in Wy:
Points going into:

Year
2005 9889 10 point pools
2006 10756
2007 10248
2008 7345
2009 7284
2010 7045 15 point pools
2011 7046
2012 7321
2013 7528
2014 7815
2015 8325
2016 8919
2017 9568 22 point pools


In 2007 the applicant pool peaked. Was it the Economic downturn that lead to the precipitous drop in 2008 or some other factor? Based on the last several years 2017 could be the year the pool hits the 10,000 mark again.
 
A B C D
16 381 12.9 2026
17 391 9.66 2024
18 108 5.01 2020
19 72 4.05 2018
20 38
21 37
22 11

A=PP going into 2017 draw
B=number of NR applicants in the pool
C=Number of years to COMPLETELY EXHAUST the pool (worst case scenario)
D=The year of draw based on the HT's projection of data Going Into the 2014 draw (remember HT used MEDIAN YEAR)


Example: A person in the 16 point pool should draw a tag by 2028 based on the caveats below.
A person in the 18 point pool should draw by 2021.

So what I did is look at the draw rate and attrition rate for 2016 to come up with this table. As you all know this is wrought with potential problems as we know application trends change year to year as do attrition rates. I also used a different metric that HT did in the past. As you can see, the third column is when that particular pool is totally exhausted. HT used median or when approx half of the pool would be exhausted.
The reason I did nothing for the 20-22 point holders is that the 21 and 22 point holders can draw whenever they choose. At this point not many appear to be applying. In 2015 seven of the 16 max point holders applied (4 drew) and in 2016 4 of the 13 applied (1 drew). Essentially alot of the max point holders are after the same unit. This puts the ball in the court of the 20 and 21 point pools. in 2016 12 of those point holders drew. The 19 point pool (18 in 2016)had the highest number of successful applicants in 2016 with 19 out of the 98 drawing tags (we don't know how many applied). It appears to me that draw rates have improved a little since HT did the Going Into the 2014 draw table. if all of a sudden the upper point pool applicants decide to start applying on a regular basis we can throw this entire model out. Based on other states I think the trend here is consistent.
 
One last stat. I am in the 18 point pool. In 2005 there were 1305 NR with points equal to or greater than me. Now 12 years later there are 266.
 
I see a sheep tag in your future...provided the NR quota isn't reduced... or you miss a year...or your health goes south.

So many dreams, so many variables along the way.

Zeke
 
I keep a little book on the preference points year to year to see who might of dropped out and who might have drawn in the random draw. But I noticed in the top number for moose there is 4 people with 22 points and last year there were only 3 and nun applied for the draw is this a resident that moved out of state so he is a non-resident? This also happened in the people with 21 sheep points.
 
>In 2007 the applicant pool peaked.
> Was it the Economic
>downturn that lead to the
>precipitous drop in 2008 or
>some other factor?

I don't recall the exact year, but I think that is about when they went from $7 to get a preference point (and you didn't have to front the tag cost) to $100 per point. Huge difference that probably caused a lot to drop out.
 
>>In 2007 the applicant pool peaked.
>> Was it the Economic
>>downturn that lead to the
>>precipitous drop in 2008 or
>>some other factor?
>
>I don't recall the exact year,
>but I think that is
>about when they went from
>$7 to get a preference
>point (and you didn't have
>to front the tag cost)
>to $100 per point.
>Huge difference that probably caused
>a lot to drop out.
>

I think JRABQ is on the right track!
Zeke
 
There are lots of reasons max point holders don't apply in a given year. Could be military deployed overseas (unlikely, because max point holders are usually older) or even on an overseas business assignment.
Then there are health issues. I had knee surgery last year (successful), but it didn't seem like the best time to burn sheep points.
There are also family issues - one guy I know only got points because it was his son's senior year in high school as the starting quarterback and he didn't want to miss any games.
The list goes on...

When you have invested 20+ years in a tag, you want to make sure you can do it justice.... And the sad reality is that with all this "planning", life happens and the best laid plans often go awry.
I truly hate preference point systems, and believe hunters would be better off with a true random draw every year.
Bill
 
+1 on PP systems. Fairest system is no points. I love the Idaho system it spreads applicants out to make odds a little better.
 
I've always been a advocate of pref/bonus pt systems that makes sense for the particular species and number of tags issued. Not all pref/bonus pt systems are created equally. No system where there are a handful of tags with thousands of applicants is going to make many hunters happy.

Pref pt systems (like Wyo sheep and Colo elk) where few tags are issued and nearly every tag goes to those with high pref pts is likely going to lead to the greatest pt creep...plus those that don't start off applying from the onset may never draw tags.

I would consider the current pref pt system for Wyo antelope a decent system and a great success. There are so many antelope tags issued that applicants filter through the system pretty quick. There are only a hand full of antelope units in the entire state that take close to max pts to draw in the special draw.

I actually like the idea that those that have applied for tags more years stand a little better chance of drawing tags than those just starting out. If I'm investing years of applying at $50 to $100/year for a species I should have a little better chance to draw a tag than a guy just starting out applying. If I invest $50 to $300 a year to apply in 1 state at least I know I stand a better chance of drawing a tag 10 to 20 years from now if a state has a decent pref/bonus pt system.

If the draw odds are 1 to 2% with a "no pref pt system" and there are more and more hunters applying for the same number of tags it stands to reason my draw odds will actually get worse and worse.
 
Jims

Wouldn't the odds in Wy for antelope still be pretty good with no points and a waiting period after drawing?

The reason one has to invest $50-100 a year per species is for the point. Without points the investment is moot.

What about the newcomers and young hunters without the money to invest $300 a year for points?

I am a benefactor of point systems with no children. I feel for the next gen in some of these systems.
 
I laugh every time I hear the "fair" comment.

There's nothing fair about random and nothing fair about points. These are simply tag distribution systems and nothing more or less.

From a personal view, I like points. They work for me even when I'm not in in the ground floor. It give me something to work toward without all that random BS.

I have kids who are way back in some of the points pools but they'll probably be rewarded eventually. We old dudes are dying off, drawing or dropping out making room for them.

There isn't a system in the world which will guarantee someone a tag. There's simply too much demand for too few tags. Simple math bears this out regardless of the system!

Zeke
 
Draw odds for Wyo antelope without pref pts would be horrible in better units and not a guaranteed deal in other units. If you think about it...some guys would draw tags every year or 2 while others may not draw a tag for years and years. The guys that draw tags don't have to go to the back of the line and wait to apply for another tag.

Currently, for Wyo antelope there is a regular draw pool where every applicant has a chance to draw tags and a separate pref pt pool for those with high pref pts. Those that draw tags pts drop to 0 with this system.

Unfortunately every state (including Idaho) has figured out that they can take advantage of nonres by requiring them to purchase a license and pay additional fees in order to apply for tags. This is true in Idaho and Alaska where there is no pref pt or bonus pt system in place. I'm pretty sure it costs over $100/year for nonres just to apply for 1 or 2 species in Idaho even if they may not be hunting? Alaska has no pref pt system. Currently in Alaska you have to purchase a $85 license and are charged a $5 fee for every choice and species you apply for. In other words, if there is no pref/bonus pt system each state has figured out ways to charge other fees to make up the difference in $!

Young and new hunters have no choice but to pay pricey license and application fees to apply each year whether there is a pref pt system or not!
 
Zeke there is something fair about random. Everyone has the exact same odds of drawing. Period.

But you sold me. I will no longer advocate for the next gen. When points come up again in Idaho I will go testify again and as I look into the eyes of that 14 year old in the audience I will think of only myself.

Jims
Why should anyone be "guaranteed" anything in any unit? It really sounds like you think a person should be entitled to something just for applying more than another. Why?
 
Cosmo8,
I doubt you were being serious but rather a bit snippy but only you know for sure with your vegue remark.
The youngsters have a chance and will eventually draw great tags If dedicated. I just look at my kids who started late and are now drawing tags. They get rewarded for being dedicated.
You looks into the eyes of that 14 year old and I'll look into the eyes of that 70 year old who has never drawn and wonders why.
Feel free to "testify" or make a comment or whatever you do but don't be vague when you do or you might be misunderstood.
....and there's that "fair" comment again!
Zeke
 
LAST EDITED ON Dec-18-16 AT 05:09PM (MST)[p]Zeke,

I sincerely try to put myself in others shoes before I form an opinion and consider myself conscientious to a fault. Do I feel for the 70 year old that hasn't drawn a tag? Certainly, but under a random system was it because someone or something was biased against them? No.


I was not being "snippy" and if it's vague I will make it crystal clear. I hear more and more hunters (some good friends of mine) advocating for systems that place new entrants at a marked disadvantage. I have been against that in past but I am now changing my tune.
 
Cozmo,
I appreciate the discussion.

You could really be a philanthropist, to a 14 year old, and relinquish your Wyoming sheep points! You'd advance their cause and allow someone to take a step forward!

Nah, keep your points and draw a tag and I'll cheer for you even though my kids (and many others) are years away.

That's just how the system works.

Zeke
 
When I say I'm an advocate of well thought out pref/bonus pt systems I say that with my son and grandsons in mind! They not only have better chances over the long haul for drawing tags but I also end up flipping the bill for paying for their application fees and tags! It's nice knowing that the odds are in their favor for drawing several tags in their lifetime with pref/bonus pt system vs long odds of drawing any tags without a draw pt system.

In the case of extremely high demand sheep tags there are so few tags and so many hunters vying for these tags that the likelihood that a hunter will draw a tag with either system in his lifetime is minute but at least with a well managed pref/bonus pt system dedicated applicants that are willing to consistently apply for tags on an annual basis are rewarded with a fraction better draw odds.

I guess I'll leave it up to you which system you like best. I know I'll be applying my sons and grandsons in states with well thought out pref/bonus pt systems where we are likely to share several great trips of a lifetime.
 
Cozmo,
I appreciate the discussion.

You could really be a philanthropist, to a 14 year old, and relinquish your Wyoming sheep points! You'd advance their cause and allow someone to take a step forward!

Nah, keep your points and draw a tag and I'll cheer for you even though my kids (and many others) are years away.

That's just how the system works.

Zeke
_-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------











In July After analyzing last years moose odds I came to the conclusion that I may be able to draw a decent (access, mild to moderate physically and good success rate) moose permit for someone without the means or points. Therefore my 17 NR Wy moose points in 2017 will be relinquished if I draw. My fingers are crossed for an ultimately deserving stranger with little or no chance of ever drawing a tag because of a poorly designed point system.

You now have me feeling guilty About keeping those sheep points, they are not gone however. Who knows what may happen in 2018 if I am still alive. Good talk and Well wishes to you all for the Holiday season.

Rick
 
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>In July After analyzing last years
>moose odds I came to
>the conclusion that I may
>be able to draw a
>decent (access, mild to moderate
>physically and good success rate)
>moose permit for someone without
>the means or points.
>Therefore my 17 NR Wy
>moose points in 2017 will
>be relinquished if I draw.
> My fingers
>are crossed for an ultimately
>deserving stranger with little or
>no chance of ever drawing
>a tag because of a
>poorly designed point system.
>

>
>Rick

I don't understand what you're saying.

Did you say you can draw and should draw a moose tag but a stranger will get the tag? How can this be? Is there some kind of "stranger" mentor program like party hunting?

The way I read it it seems like you're simply using you points and not relinquishing them to advance someone else.

Perhaps an explanation is in order since I can't keep up. Ha

Zeke
 
Wont somebody please think about the children!

I personally don't care for PP systems for deer, elk or antelope. I think they should only have a place with sheep, moose, mnt. goat and bison. But I got to say I get a kick out of the argument against points systems because they leave out the kids. I don't know what you guys were hunting for the first 10 - 15 years of your hunting careers but for me it damn sure wasn't a sheep or a moose. There are tons of opportunities for kids to hunt deer, elk and antelope every year and for a reasonable price whether they are res or non-res. If that isn't enough to keep them in the sport then I am afraid a moose or sheep hunt wasn't going to do it either. To be honest I am not sure I want to hunt with somebody that is not capable of waiting 20, 30, 40 years to chase a ram. But to look into that poor child's eyes and tell him he is going to have to wait a hell of a long time to hunt a ram, while I am taking him on one of many general deer hunts is something I can do all day long and not shed a single tear.
 
I agree.

Deer, elk and pronghorn hunting IS hunting! Sheep and moose is only "dream" hunting.

If someone thinks a kid "needs" a sheep tag early on to become a hunter, they're badly misguided.

I know a couple youth hunters who had sheep tags early on and now don't hunt at all. Seems like it did nothing for them! On the other hand, many of us started on birds and then deer for years and years before moving on to some elk hunting with an occasional pronghorn thrown in for good measure.

We all come from a different place so our ideas and opinions will vary widely but there's always something to hunt and always a way to expose kids to the outdoors without worrying about a moose of sheep hunt, ever!

Zeke
 
Mulecreek

How many states have points only for sheep, moose and goats? It's usually an all or nothing proposition.

You all have changed my mind. My perspective is now different
 
That's an interesting program and one that I knew nothing about! Well done!
I hope you actually do it and make someone happy! Keep us posted.
Zeke
 
Sorry I forgot to send this link also. I spoke with Dan Currah last year and got a real good feel for this organization so I donated an antelope license to them in 2016. They have networks of volunteers throughout Wy that make these hunts an overwhelming success. When a person turns a a tag back to Wy F and G it can be designated to qualifying organizations, this is one of them.






http://huntingwithheroes.org/
 
>Mulecreek
>
>How many states have points only
>for sheep, moose and goats?
> It's usually an all
>or nothing proposition.
>
>You all have changed my mind.
> My perspective is now
>different

Cozmo8,

I do not know about other states but I do know that Wyoming does it that way for residents and it seems to function just fine. No reason it needs to be an all or nothing proposition. Factors involving individual State's and species are all different and they matter.

BTW, the Wyoming veteran tag transfer program is a great program and should be in place regardless of PP's or random draws.
 
I agree with some of the stuff you say about deer, ante and elk being excluded from PP's but Wy is the exception few other states do it that way. That was my point from the beginning.

I don't understand your comment on the tag transfer. What is meant by "should be in place regardless of PP's or random draw"?
 
Spouse with max sheep points drew the tag in the random pool so everyone still has a chance regardless of how many points you have.Wyoming has a set aside random draw that does not take points. With careful study you can draw tags without max points, my second moose tag was draw in an area that did not take max points.
I know which unit I would spend 17 moose points on!!!
 
>I don't understand your comment on
>the tag transfer. What
>is meant by "should be
>in place regardless of PP's
>or random draw"?

It's a good program whether the state has a PP system or a true random system.
 
Wytex,

If she had max points, how do you know she drew in the randomn pool? Just curious. Was there only 1 tag and it went randomn?
 
Cozmo8.....you're a good guy for doing that. Can't help but be inspired by that kind of generosity. I was fortune enough to be able to donate a really good coues deer (December season) tag in AZ a couple of years ago to a veterans organization. Until I read this, I had kind of forgotten about it. It makes you feel good to do nice things.

I'm not sure I could ever give up a sheep tag either. I've been lucky enough to hunt sheep for myself three times and have helped others another 10 times. Sheep hunting makes you feel good too...haha.
 
>Cozmo8.....you're a good guy for doing
>that. Can't help but
>be inspired by that kind
>of generosity. I was
>fortune enough to be
>able to donate a really
>good coues deer (December season)
>tag in AZ a couple
>of years ago to a
>veterans organization. Until I
>read this, I had kind
>of forgotten about it.
>It makes you feel good
>to do nice things.
>
>I'm not sure I could ever
>give up a sheep tag
>either. I've been lucky
>enough to hunt sheep for
>myself three times and have
>helped others another 10 times.
> Sheep hunting makes you
>feel good too...haha.

Live4mtnhunts-thanks for the kind words. Some of these Veteran programs are incredible. It humbles me to see the great lengths these volunteers are going to. AWESOME stuff
 
I called and asked the G&F and they told me it was in the random draw. They keep the stats for the drawings.
 

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