WY the future, moose and sheep etc

DonVathome

DonVathome

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I do not think anyone will disagree WY is really taking advantage of the NR. $300 for points for just sheep and moose.

Food for thought. Several years ago WY sent out a questionnaire I and a couple other NR I know received it. It was apparent this stuff was coming. It was basically asking how much would you pay for a point before you dropped out? A tag? etc.

I apply for over 50 tags a year and, with the exception of bison in AK (I got a bison in WY) and Vermont moose (I drew). I have never dropped out of anything. I will drop WY sheep and moose as soon as I draw.

For those on the fence. This is NOT the end. They will raise point fees. They will raise tag fees. Also the plan to hold out for a mid or lower tier unit will not work. Many going for top units will drop down so they can draw and be done. There will not be point creep there will be point leap. Fewer and fewer tags for moose will not help.

WY is smart, they are doing a great job of running a business. Smart moves but I do not think it is fair.

What's next? has anyone on the fence considered what WY will do next?

Besides raising app, point and tag fees they WILL cut preference point tags. They know the internet and magazines (to some extent) are tipping off hunters to realistic odds. Guys are NOT going to start spending, or continue spending hundreds of dollars a year for applying with the dream of waiting for the hundreds of guys ahead of them to die or quit applying and draw.

WY will cut the max points tags to 50% or 25%. No question about it.

Keep this in mind as you make your decisions.

Good luck,

DonV Oh
 
I agree with your taje on it. and you're 100% correct the max point allotment will be cut , keep the lower point guys from giving up.

I think it all depends on how old you are and how much you're willing to donate. in my opinion if you're getting older and you're not in the upper point group you're probably a sucker. but they sell lottery tickets with one in a billion odds so who's to say what is possible.

I've drawn my moose and sheep and I'm out . at 54 only a fool would try to start over.



























Stay Thirsty My Friends
 
LAST EDITED ON Feb-19-18 AT 08:37PM (MST)[p]The sad thing is, there are over 8,000 NR hunters with 13 points or less who have been putting in for just sheep. Given Wyoming only issues 45 or so NR sheep tags per year, it would take over 170 years to clear out that group alone.

The Moose numbers are similar.
I'd hope most of those folks have sense enough to keep their $150, rather than continuing to pay Wyoming for no chance at all.
 
Don,
Thanks for your most insightful post on this topic as well as those who've commented so far. Despite having 16 moose NR points I've decided to bailout due to the increase in the cost of the tag and the $150 pp fee. Yep - WGFD does know how to run a business. 50% of the applicants buying a moose pp could stop and the WGFD would still have the same amount of money coming in due to the price going from $75 to $150!
I got out of the NR elk shell game when I had 7 points and put in where I could draw. Sadly, for moose it's taken me until now to analyze the number of applicants, number of tags, and number of people at 16 points and above.

As some have opined it's simply a twist on a state run lottery. If one is lucky they get a tag as opposed to money.
It really is selling false hopes. At 62 I'd be an old man in a wheelchair before I drew!

In reality the WGFD has turned this in to a wealthy man's game. Those with large amounts of money or disposable income will continue to apply for moose and sheep while the pool of applicants with limited funds will be priced out of the game.

Over 15 years ago I read an article in Sports Afield about the future of hunting in North America. The quote went something to the effect, "Are we moving to a two tier hunting society where the bucks and bulls are reserved for the wealthy and the leftovers are available for the rest?" The way some states run the application and pp/bonus point game is counter to the North American Model of wildlife conservation. States (their citizens) hold and own the wildlife for the benefit and enjoyment of all people regardless of money, power, or status.
 
I would really encourage you to either draw a tag or stay in if you have 16 points. you may never draw the top 3 but you can draw a decent tag this year or a better one real soon.

I'd stay in if I were you.










Stay Thirsty My Friends
 
I am in to the end. Wyoming has no state income tax so when I retire I am moving there. I will be able to use my 401k and avoid state income tax plus they will not tax my pension and other income. I will spend enough time there to meet the requirements of being a resident and go somewhere warm in the winter. Probably make the move in 10 years and I will have 25 points for both species. I will have to give up a year or two of bow hunting here in Iowa which stinks but I can still gun hunt every year. When I move there I am going to talk about all you damn non-residents getting my tags :)
 
>I am glad I drew my
>Bull Moose already in Wyo.
>
>
>Robb


I agree 100% Robb. I drew my tag several years ago, killed a bull near Big Piney. Bob
 
...glad to hear you're starting over Tog....

497fc2397b939f19.jpg
 
Well boys here are the facts about the moose application game from both the WGFD website and the two main magazine services that specialize in drawing western state tags, HuntinFool and Epic Outdoors.

There are currently 1,320 people, including myself, at the 16 point level and above. 23 is max. There are 26 units NR can apply for. Based on previous application trends only two units, 35 and 21, would people with 16 points be assured to draw in 2018. Unless the astute applicant with more points puts in for those units. Unit 35: "Lower numbers of scattered moose. Easy access in lower elevation open sagebrush type country. Don't expect a big bull". Unit 21: "Unit has really been hurt by wolves and disease. Plenty of wilderness. Not a great unit right now. Don't apply without some inside information on a specific big bull or two." Wilderness requires a NR to hire a guide!

There are only five units that have tags available via the random drawing:
5-1, 1 in 83
24-1, 1 in 134
25-1, 1 in 106
26-1, 1 in 307
38-1, 1 in 641

Further information reads: "Moose are not thriving by any means. Hunters that have accumulated a bunch of points are going to have to likely wait a lot longer to get a tag than they had planned on years ago. There is a big bottleneck of nonresident moose applicants with 17 - 19 points. For nonresident applicants with 16+ points, the competition in drawing tags on units that usually have 1 - 3 tags in the preference point draw per unit will continue to be tough. Point creep continues to rise each year since there simply
aren't enough tags issued to make much of an impact on the point tiers where tags are being drawn. Nonresident applicants who don't have enough points to be in the preference point draw for a given unit should either apply for points only, or choose a unit that issues a tag(s) in the random drawing. Otherwise, they are fronting the permit fees and paying the application and point fee with ZERO chance to draw a permit".

Iowan - you and a few others have no idea of what you've gotten into. Would you invest in a 401K or mutual fund with those odds for success at some point in the future? Have you added up what you've put in as a NR to acquire 15 PP and what you will have put in by the time you get to 25 PP? You, like me, would have been better off 16 - 17 years ago to simply book a Shiras Moose hunt in southern British Columbia. Oh well, it's your time and money!

I lived in Wyoming for 13 years. If you think you are "going somewhere warm in the winter" you better plan on spending 7 - 8 months in another state to avoid the winter in Wyoming. In Laramie the leaves on the trees don't even come out until Memorial Day and are gone by Labor Day!
 
You really just sound like you want to be mad at somebody because wolves ate a bunch of the moose.

Hint: that's not WG&F?s fault.

Drop out already - we get it.
 
It is getting a bit old, but I still think you should stay in. Your money, your call.

If moose rebound a bit you will draw very soon in a good though not great unit. 2 or 3 years back you could have drawn a bunch of good units with your points, but I guess you chose not to apply then?

Why not try for one of the following units that you would have had a good chance at last year?

5 (7% last year with 15 points)
18
21
22
23
27
35
40
10
 
You clearly don't understand how the draw works. Look at unit 23-1. Last year I had 15 non resident points. Unit 23-1 had 3 NR pp tags available and 100% of the applicants with 17 points drew those tags. I never would have stood a chance to draw in that unit!
Unit 21 I already alluded to in my previous post, "Unit has really been hurt by wolves and disease. Plenty of wilderness. Not a great unit right now. Don't apply without some inside information on a specific big bull or two." If I had drawn this poor unit and wanted to or had to hunt the wilderness to find a bull moose I would have been required to hire an outfitter which I can not afford.

In units 10 and 18 I would have encountered less than a 50% chance to draw even after 15 years of applying!

We can always look back and think what we should have done. How many non residents sitting on 15 points going into the 2017 moose draw knew that in 2018 the Wyoming legislature would require the WGF Commission to raise the NR moose tag fee by 30% to approx. $1975 and to double the NR PP fee to $150 from $75? The dirty bastards at the WGFD released the price increases to the press after the October 31 deadline to apply for preference points! They did not want to lose one single NR PP fee at $75!

In reality we've all make bad investments in our lifetime. This is one of those. How were any of us to know 17 years ago that wolves, disease, habitat degradation, real estate development, and population influx would have such an effect on the availability of NR moose tags? Only a fool continues with an investment gone bad.
 
cbeard - you clearly have no concept as to the multi factorial biological causes for the drop in availability of NR moose tags in Wyoming!
 
And you are clearly someone with an agenda and apparently not what you seem based on other threads on this site.

IDK who you are or what your agenda is (may just be to stir the pot), but if you want to hunt moose in WY - use your 16 points and go hunt them. If not, don't.
 
I predict a huge jump in lower end units. Guys with more points will bail - it only takes a few because there are so few tags. I suspect 16 points will take 5 years to get a tag.
 
I am sitting at 17 and have a decent idea about how this draw works. I have hunted a few units with people with the same number of points as me and I cannot draw those same units now because the number of tags is down significantly.

Sorry about my typo on 23, very sorry. It will probably go to 16 this year and you will miss out!

5 (7% last year with 15 points)
18 (33% last year with 15)
21 (100% last year with 15)
22 (50% last year with 15)
23 (my Bad!)
27 (28% last year with 15)
35 (100% last year with 15)
40 (100 last year with 15)
10 (40% last year with 15)

50% is a freaking flip of a coin. You just invested 15 years of time and money and thoughts and you are going to bail over a flip of a coin on a moose tag? Harvest odds in these units are 50-100% with many closer to 100. Go hunt 22 or somewhere else.

It is basically $2-3,000 if you want to shoot a moose in Wyoming and I guarantee you can in the next few years, let alone last year when the fee was cheaper or this year. It might not be a B&C, but you should be able to get a decent looking low to mid-30s bull with chance of bigger. If that is too much $, then get out, no one cares.

I will shut up now and let you do as you please.
 
I saw the writing on the wall around 15 years ago and got out! I also took my son out of the moose draw quite a few years ago. More grizz/wolves...fewer moose..fewer tags! I have no regrets! If Wyo wants to make things a lot more attractive to nonres they will ax the guide in wilderness law. Have any of you guys applying for sheep looked at how much outfitters are charging for sheep hunts in wilderness? It is pretty absurd! If you ask me, the WG&F is slitting their own throat!
 
LAST EDITED ON Feb-25-18 AT 01:02PM (MST)[p]WY G&F wants hunters to drop out of the draw. That is part of the reason they keep increasing the cost of preference points.

I will show them, I will keep paying the fee. Take that...
 
Like most, I'm annoyed at the continuing escalation in cost for NR apps & points. Wyoming remains the most expensive state in the west to apply for all their species as a NR....roughly 2X the cost of any other state. But after evaluating it with a cool head, I'll be staying in. At least for a couple more decades, or until my legs give out. The annual cost, compared to other ways of getting a bighorn sheep hunt for example, is still reasonable. The odds to draw a random tag, for the money spent, are still better than any state raffle. Although those odds are trending upward as applicants have begun to smarten up, with fewer applying for points only. So it's certainly something to watch. If the random odds continue to go up and exceed much over 500:1 then that will probably be my cue to bail.

And the 7k-10k cost for an outfitted sheep hunt in Wyoming is also an extreme bargain, compared to the other ways of obtaining a bighorn hunt. Such as buying a hunt in Canada (45k-65k) or buying a governors tag at one of the conventions (85k-350k).
 
I pulled out of moose and sheep. Unless you have more than 10 points I think its smart to get out.

If you have 15 or 16 you too close to give up.

There are a lot of old ass guys with a ton of points that will die or quit applying when they get too old to hunt and haven't drawn.

That is the one part of it that's very hard to model, obviously attrition rates will spike some point down the road, its just hard to predict.

Wolves ate the moose tags.

Everything with any demand is gradually all going to random draws. Point systems are unsustainable - steadily rising demand with flat to shrinking supply - never will solve itself under those conditions, every one of them will collapse.
 
Rambopup says: I lived in Wyoming for 13 years. If you think you are "going somewhere warm in the winter" you better plan on spending 7 - 8 months in another state to avoid the winter in Wyoming. In Laramie the leaves on the trees don't even come out until Memorial Day and are gone by Labor Day!

Laramie get about 20 more days of sun annually than where I live now and the average high in the months of December-March is about 4 degrees more. We also get about 10 more inches of snow here than Laramie. Warm is a relative term. I only need to avoid January-March.

I make no bones about the fact that applying for the tags out west is a form of gambling for me and I do not mind paying the price to have a chance to draw tags. I have drawn an incredible amount of high quality tags and enjoyed some great hunts. I will be able to draw a great moose tag as a resident of Wyoming. It makes sense for me to move there to avoid significant taxes when I retire. The preference point money goes to fund something I believe in. I will die with a slug of points at some point (Utah moose for example)- so be it.

I am not necessarily disagreeing with you, I think the situation with NR moose tags in Wyoming frankly sucks, but I have always planned to move to Wyoming eventually so I think it is smart for me to ride it out. My lovely wife of 20+ years is not on board with this move idea so there may be a flaw in my plan.

I agree that for many and maybe even me it is a waste of money but I have some to waste and this is one way I choose to do it.

On a related note I did draw the line on Wyoming bison when I saw the price of that tag - holy smokes. So apparently even someone as foolish as me has their limits.
 
If I had 15 or more points in WY, I'd ride it out for a few more years.

I also wouldn't discount some of these lower and mid tier WY moose areas. I had my dad dump his points last fall and he ended up tagging a 50" B&C bull.
 
What I worry about is that as more and more people dropout they will have to continue to increase point and tag cost. When is is my turn I may not have enough funds left for a tag. Maybe I should retire and move to Wyoming.
Bill
 
Seems to me 13-14 points is about the cut off for dropping out. Unless you are 55-60 plus, then maybe 16-17. Who knows what the future holds. I do believe part of the reason the cost of PP's keeps going up is to encourage hunters to drop out. The other reason of course is revenue.

Greg - just saw your message. Returned. Good to hear from you.
 
Just drew a OIL WY NR Area 1 mountain goat tag - odds about 200:1. Can?t wait for September! :)
Odds on the random draw WY moose tag I drew back in 2005: about 150:1.
Odds on the AZ NR sheep tag I drew in 2014: Who knows? 1000s : 1.

I get I have had some amazing luck. But I do know this: if I wasn?t applying for these hunts (despite long odds) I would have missed out on three hunts of a lifetime.

There?s way more applicants than tags for sheep, moose, and goats. So is if you want to go on OIL hunts, you've either got to be rich or have some luck. Because you will not draw a tag you don't apply for. That's just simple reality.
 
LAST EDITED ON May-29-18 AT 11:10AM (MST)[p]Since this one's back, rambopup4, did you apply?

With 16 this year, you would of had the following odds for these units:

2: 33%
5: 16%
18: 33%
20: 16%
22: 100%
35: 15%
40: 100%

10 took 17
21 took 17
27 took 18


Last year with 15 points:

5 (7% last year with 15 points)
18 (33% last year with 15)
21 (100% last year with 15)
22 (50% last year with 15)
27 (28% last year with 15)
35 (100% last year with 15)
40 (100 last year with 15)
10 (40% last year with 15)

Some got a bit harder, some stayed about the same a few got easier...not much change considering the change in fees recently.
 
I decided to get out of the sheep and moose race....right after I drew both tags!

I suspect most guys with a pile of points share this sentiment. They're in until they draw regardless of what they say on the internet. I'm also sure that those who have a little age on them and don't have a pile of points should get out and spend their money elsewhere.

Too bad but it's true. I've said for years that the demand has/is/and will far out-strip the resource so most guys won't draw regardless of the draw system. Nothing new here except the price, Period!

Zeke

#livelikezac
 
I have 18, do to other tags I will draw I won't even be applying for at least another 2 or 3 years. It is the only Bighorn tag I can basically guarantee to draw in this lifetime without dumb luck involved.

I certainly hope others do get out. Everyone is free to come and go. I choose not to put my 15 year old son in for sheep and moose. I choose to put myself in and play the game.

Yes, it is quite a bit of money but tell me where I can find a cheaper Rocky Mtn Bighorn tag even if it takes me another decade to draw???
 

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