There has been a lot of chatter on another thread regarding the value sheep preference points, so I decided to look into it a little bit. First of all, these are an absolute cash cow for Wyoming. Last year 11,349 people bought a point at $150 each for a total of $1,702,350, if you divide that by the total number of NR tags 45 (this is including the random tags) they are getting $37,830 for every nonresident tag, and this doesn’t even include the actual cost of the tag. So obviously if/when the quotas are dropped to 10% there will be a total of 18 NR tags, (assuming total tag numbers stay the same and the same amount of people bought points) the state would be getting $94,575 for every NR sheep tag sold.
Then I looked into what the chances of someone actually using their points are. Under the current quotas and system figuring a 10% fall off rate due to death or just giving up, nobody with less than 18 points now would have any chance of drawing a tag in the preference pool in the next 50 years. Keep everything the same and drop the nr quota to 10% and no one with less than 21 points currently would have any chance of using them in the next 50 years, and if it went to 50/50 random and preference then no one with less than 22 points would ever really have a chance of using them.
I am not sure why I did this, just curious I guess, obviously people can do what they want with their money, but points bought by anyone with less than 15 points under the current system basically have no value whatsoever. The only exception would be if someone was young enough, they can try to outlive everyone with more points. If they switched to a bonus point system, I guess the points would then have a very small amount of value, but in my eyes, you would have a much better chance trying to turn the $150 into $40,000 at a casino and buying a sheep hunt. But again, everyone can do what they want. I did not spend a ton of time on this so if someone sees anything incorrect, please let me know,
Cue Buzz to call me a baby and post a bunch of pictures.
Mark
Then I looked into what the chances of someone actually using their points are. Under the current quotas and system figuring a 10% fall off rate due to death or just giving up, nobody with less than 18 points now would have any chance of drawing a tag in the preference pool in the next 50 years. Keep everything the same and drop the nr quota to 10% and no one with less than 21 points currently would have any chance of using them in the next 50 years, and if it went to 50/50 random and preference then no one with less than 22 points would ever really have a chance of using them.
I am not sure why I did this, just curious I guess, obviously people can do what they want with their money, but points bought by anyone with less than 15 points under the current system basically have no value whatsoever. The only exception would be if someone was young enough, they can try to outlive everyone with more points. If they switched to a bonus point system, I guess the points would then have a very small amount of value, but in my eyes, you would have a much better chance trying to turn the $150 into $40,000 at a casino and buying a sheep hunt. But again, everyone can do what they want. I did not spend a ton of time on this so if someone sees anything incorrect, please let me know,
Cue Buzz to call me a baby and post a bunch of pictures.
Mark