Arizona draw procedures

buckmster28

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I was just wondering if anyone could clear up a question I have on the arizona drawing procedures. I understand that 10% of tags go to nonresidents. If 20% of the tags go to applicants with the most points does that mean 20% of total tags or 20% of nonresident tags. For example if there are 200 tags that means 20 go to nonresidents, now do 20% of these 20 tags go to nonresidents with max points which would be 4 tags or is that 20% taken from the total 200 tags meaning that only nonresidents with max points even have a chance to draw. Any help in clearing this up would be aprreciated.
 
20% of the total tags in each hunt are reserved for those with the most points, regardless of residency. This is a true preference round, like Colorado. Everyone is in the same pot. The first round sorts through these. 10% of the total tags in each hunt can go to nonresidents. Since more than 50% of the high point pools are nonresidents, odds are that the 10% total nonresident cap will be met in the maximum points round. This would likely leave few or no nonresident tags in the high demand hunts, like early rifle bull elk and late Kiabab and strip deer hunts in the next round for the rest of the tags, where anyone can draw, and points only up your chances of getting a better random number. Your best random number is the same and used in both sortings. More points trumps the best random number in the first round.
 
Elmer,

That ia a clear understanding and explanation of there system!! True points trump random numbers, but you still need a LOW RANDOM NUMBER to get drawn no matter what pool you are in. Unless you would like to wait until you are the only person with the highest point value then I guess you can just pick your hunt!!! Now that would be nice!!! I drew a desert sheep tag last year with less than max. pts. so it can happen, just keep the faith.

Cabuck
 
So what you are saying is then if there are 200 tags 40 of those tags go to highest point holders. which means two things, if there are more than 20 nonresidents with max points you have no chance of drawing untill everyone with more points than you draws and potentially nonresidents can draw more than 10% of the total tags if they receive more than half of the 20% max point tags. This would make all of the top elk units, Kaibab, and the strip preference point draws. They may as well change to a preference point system, as it is basically that way already.
 
In reality if a Nonresident without Max bonus points puts in for Elk for a archery or late rifle hunt he or she will have a small chance to draw a tag.
But you are correct if a non resident without max bonus points puts in for a early Bull or A Kaibab Strip hunt he or she probably has a 0 percent chance to draw.

Dom
 
You are incorrect about non-residents drawing more than 10%. It will never happen. Remember, it is up to 10%, not a garaunteed 10%
 
So in simple terms if you don't currently have max points you will never draw a tag in our lifetimes (under the current system as of this year)for deer north of the river or an early bull rifle tag as a nonresident.

At least it's not very likely that you will.
 
This issue has been beat here on this site, but there is indeed a chance for anyone to draw a tag as long as the # of resident max BP applicants is equal to 20% of the tags. This chance may be small, and is however unlikely if residents are heavily outnumbered in the max BP pool, but the #'s I've seen indicate there is sufficient representation in this category.

Remember that when there are a low # of tags, residents with max BP can draw more than half of the 20% max BP tags or possibly all of them, especially in the early rifle bull and late Kiabab/Strip hunts and leave all 10% NR tags to those without any BP's! Consider 50 trophy tags, only 10 max point tags, all of which could easily go to 10 residents in the pool and your whole theory is thrown out the door! The remaining 40 tags will enter the general lottery, open to anyone and all 5 NR tags can go to people without any BP's, or all 40 can go to residents!

You need to consider the max point reservation was instituted for these high demand hunts with a low # of tags and high # of hunters applying, so there is only a low # of NR tags available anyway. With this said it is very likely the resident can take a large proportion of these high demand max point tags (but now with a mandatory NR licence purchase, NR will acquire more BP's where some did not in the past unless the license was optional to purchase).

The generalities about saying a 0% chance fails to consider these low sampling numbers, where the number of resident bonus point holders can easily fill all 20% of the max BP draw tags as long as there is a sufficient representation in this category.
 
Just apply.

Just because you have tons of bonus points doesnt mean that your gonna get an elk tag over a guy like me that lost all his bonus points last year for a good quality archery hunt that I stuck in there as my third choice, while several of my friends had it first choice with double the bonus points I had.

If you dont have bonus points, you still have a chance to draw. Regardless of what species you want to hunt or what unit you apply for.

Good luck.

AZG&F is the downfall of hunting in Arizona!!!!!
 
It is the most points, then best random draw #, per hunt # that takes the tag in the first 20% maximum points round. Not necissarily absolute maximum points, depending on the hunt #. Odds are that if 50% or more of the high points applicants in a hunt are nonresident, the 10% nonresident cap will be met in the maximum points round. But anything can happen in a draw. And remember, systems can change. I bet they make changes soon. If the word gets out too far that nonresidents need maximum points to draw the best hunts, they will have to change something or lose lots of nonresident $$$$$$. The thing I hate worst about points systems is that the rules can change yearly, and you have no idea what your long term investment is buying.
 
I think you are right on the money with that elmer. Arizona has changed its rules yearly from percentages of tags allocated to extra points being given for loyalty and hunter safety. We all know the hunter safety favors residents as it costs us all alot more time and money to do than residents. I know that mathmatically you still have a chance without max points, but lets face it for these premium hunts they have basically made it a preference point system. Those of us stuck applying untill we draw will not be so ready to throw are license fees away ounce we draw as odds are we the current system we may never draw again. While I dont want to see higher tag numbers, which would only make quality decline a higher nonresident percentage would be nice.
 
This whole USO fiasco would have never happened if they (AZGF) would have increased the non resident quota to 15 to 20 %. It will be interesting to see the stats after the draw. My bet is that NO NR wiil draw a premium elk or deer tag unless they have max points.
 
I doubt they up the nonresident cap, but they could make it so that the nonresident cap for each hunt number can not be met in the maximum points round. Really if 20% of the tags can go to max points in the first round, they should put a 2% nonresident cap on the maximum points round, so 20% of the nonresident 10% cap can be met in the max points round.
 
USO would have done this no matter what the non-resident percentages were. They are a bunch of greedy, unethical, worthless lowlifes who could give a rats ass about anything except the money they make from millionaires who want a big elk.
 
USO is greedy.

And Arizona Game and Fish doesnt even know thier laws or procedures. Just put in regardless of how many bonus points you have. Good luck. You have a chance of getting drawn with zero points............trust me. Ask Arizona Game and Fish, they will tell you that they dont know.

AZG&F is the downfall of hunting in Arizona!!!!!
 
I agree that USO is greedy, But, USO warned them about the lawsuit and the AZGF (for better or worse)decided to ignore them. I agree that if a NR puts in he or she should have at least a chance to draw even with zero points, as I also believe that if you have max points that your chances should be greater than someone with zero points. I doubt if there is a perfect system but it will be interesting to see if anyone with less than max points draws a tag in the premium units!
 
I just couldn't help but send an email on this subject. Prism is about as close as you can get when it comes to getting non-residents a premium AZ tag. No non-residents with out max bonus points will ever get a strip tag or early rifle elk tag, period. I repeat no non-residents even have a chance at a tag. It will take over 24 years to get all of the non-residents that put in for this hunt with max bonus points a tag at the current rate of tags under the current system. The premium elk tags are about as bad. I am sure there will be some pissed off non-residents when they figure out that they had NO chance for a tag without max bonus points. Max for deer on the 2006 draw was 9 and elk was 17. That means you even need to take the AZ safety course to have a chance. If you are behind on the points, you should go after another tag where you have a chance of draw. With the license fees this year of $113.50 and next year going to $151.25 before you even can put in, you would think more people would do their home work before putting in. Live and learn the system before you throw your money away.
 
Just a comment on buckmster28 post about the permanent Hunter Education point being unfair to non-residents.

I wonder if he is aware that you can take a one-day (12 hour)class in Arizona IF you have taken and passed Hunter Education in your home state and get the permanent bonus point?

I teach two non-resident (supplement) classes a year, and since we're just 100 miles from Las Vegas, these folks come in with the wife on Friday evening, leave her there to spend money and come on down to take the class on Saturday. Then they fly out Sunday with the same point that AZ folks who take my resident hunter ed class have to spend 35 hours to get!

So no whine please about that. AZ G&F has bent over backwards to try and accomodate and be fair to NR's who want to get that permanent Hunter Ed bonus point.

The other info put out here is basically on target, and yes, I bet that G&F will once again change the rules to make sure that NR without max BP has a least a small chance to draw a tag. Otherwise, NR's without a lot of bonus points will drop out of the system like flies and that means a lot of lost money the agency!

They are just waiting to see how the draw went this year as far as tags being issued to those without max BP's.

Don Martin
 
never,Never NEVER !!! in "06".As stated above,G&F sure to change in "07" when THEY see the lost revenue $$$$$$$$.00,because as WE "ALL" know its ALWAYS ABOUT THE BENJAMINS ---
 
In the scenario you describe, your friends would have had to have been the very last application scanned in the first phase of the draw that applied for the unit you drew with your third choice, AND there would have had to have been only 1 permit left for that unit when the computer looked at your buddies' app and saw there wasn't enough tags to issue to that application, otherwise they would have been issued permits. THEN, after a completely new set of random numbers were issued to every single application remaining for the second phase of the draw (and friends that is tons of applications!) you would have had to have been the first application scanned that had the unit listed in the third spot on your app.

To sum up, your friends were two of the most unlucky applicants in the draw and you were one of the luckiest applicants in the very same draw! Good luck to you in '06.
 
You guys have not done your homework. There is defintely a chance to draw the strip deer tag or high demand elk tags in our lifetime without max points.
 
I hear alot about max. points what is the maxium or most points. Hoe many do you have to have to get into that 20% draw.
 
You guys pretty much have it figured out, but if the max point pool for a given hunt isn't predominently non res, the 10% will probably not be allocated in this first round of the draw. Giving us poor non maxers a small chance. Does the Arizona Game and Fish provide stats that indicate what the percentages are for non res vs. res in the max point pool? I have'nt seen these stats. I would expect a great many non res with max points or near max points have drawn in the last two years. The point pools will again become very imballanced over the next few years and then it will become a true preference point system.
 
I guess I don't see why some of you can't see that without max points there is almost NO chance of you drawing a strip tag or early bull rifle tag. In the past there was, but not with the way they're allocating bonus tags this year.

Sure, I guess there is a chance if they give out 10 times the number of permits-enough to draw out all of the max point holders. Or maybe all the max point guys will decided to sit out of this years draw with the drought and all...:)

AZ has made the toughest to draw tags into a preference point system like Colorado. You either have the points or you don't.

I believe the system will change within a few years after the majority of nonresidents figure out it's a futile waste to buy a bonus point to put in for the strip and an early rifle elk hunt without already possesing max points.

I'm sitting on one shy of deer max and hope it changes sooner than later. I've only got 40 or so good hunting years left...., and under the current system that's likely not long enough!

Good luck in the draw;)
 
Prism, my bet is that it will not take 20 years to go through the 9 point pool (max)for deer. In just a few years the max pool will mainly be non-residents almost ensuring that we draw 10% of the permits. 39 non-residents from the max pool drew last year, 223 left. I realize there was no cap last year and alot of hunters are putting in for the same units but I think that the pool will thin in less than 20 years.
 
I will try again. No non-resident with out the maximum points for deer of 9 going into the 2006 draw will get a strip tag or any other premium tag, zero, none, no way to do it. Last year in the 2005 draw there were 305 people that had max points that put in for the strip, the majority of which were non-residents. This year the non-residents will draw only 10% of the tags. This leaves over 20 years remaining before all max holders that put in for the strip get a tag. It is even higher than that as non-residents make up a higher percentage of the max point holders going for the strip than do residents. If you don't have max, move to another unit.

That being said, residents do have a chance as they compete in the lottery for the remaining 80% of the tags. Last year on the strip if you calculate out the people with 8 then 7 bonus points etc. down to 0 points and the chances each of them had it was a total of 22,277 chances at the random number generator to get one of the limited tags. So if you had no bonus points coming into the draw for the first time your chance was 1 in 22,277 at a tag. If you had 5 bonus points plus 1 for the year or 6 chances it was 6 out of 22,277. You can calculate your chances, they are just pretty poor to get a limited strip tag, but at least a resident has a chance at a tag. Non-residents without max have no chance at a tag. With this being said, my dad three years ago got a strip tag without any bonus points as he had a late Kaibab tag the year before and he doesn't have the hunter education permanent point. Not bad, but he is a resident and non-residents are not moving into the 80% lottery for tags on the premium hunts as all 10% of non-resident tags are going in the 20% bonus draw.

I would assume that Arizona will change in a few years but until then, it is not a good draw situation for non-residents. If you are a non-resident without max bonus points, put in for a unit that doesn't get pounded with non-residents with max points. Unless you are patient enough to wait for over 20 years if the system doesn't change.
 
So who of you is going to be the first to admit they are wrong when a nonresident without max points draws one of those tags? I'll certainly be the first to admit you were right, IF indeed you are right. Nobody knows exactly what will happen.
 
I will be the first one to admit it when it happens 20 years from now :) I am not sure which units you are talking about but when the numbers come out on this years draws, I will let you know. You are right that we don't know exactly what will happen this year, but last year is a good indication on what will happen this year and no one will get a tag unless 90% of the people changed choices, which is unlikely.
 
"You are right that we don't know exactly what will happen this year, but last year is a good indication on what will happen this year and no one will get a tag"

That don't make sense. How can you not know exactly what will happen, then in the same sentence say exactly what will happen?
 
If you are an AZ resident with 8 bonus points your odds are less than 2%. In ten years your, assuming you apply every year, you will draw your 13B tag. That is almost 20 years of applying! Chances are you will be dead before you draw another Strip tag. Hate to be depressing but we all need to be realistic.
 
MULEY62, you are right for a resident. Because of the number of non-residents that are going after this tag, it will take twice as long for a non-resident to get this tag.

SREMIN, let me say it another way. We won't know exactly what happened this year until it is over and the results are out. Last year we know exactly what happened because it is over and the results are in. Based on last year?s actual results, it will take over 20+ years for just the non-residents with max points to get a tag. This estimation method has always been a good indicator of what will happen this year. I guess I can explain it to you, but I can't understand it for you.

Arizona is as tough of a Non-resident draw as you can find. As some have said, you just need to be realistic on what your chances are for these premium tags.
 
Your right.....none of you will ever draw a trophy deer tag..............stop putting in, its a waste of your time...............put in for Texas, and I'll cover Arizona............see if I can prove myself wrong.


AZG&F is the downfall of hunting in Arizona!!!!!
 
I agree with muleybull. Everybody stop putting in for AZ. By the way, I am a resident and could care less how many tags the non-residents get, I just don't know if it will work like some say it will, especially because there has always been those, residents and non-residents, who have drawn a premium tag with 0 points. To say it will never happen again, with a new system, might not be correct.
 
If you say there is a 0% chance to draw a strip tag then you do NOT understand how the draw works and didn't understand my post previously. If you put in for 13B then lets discuss it. 75 tags, 15 for max bp pool, max of 7 for NR (rounded down). This means if at least 9 residents draw in this pool, then yes you do absolutely have a chance to draw a tag with NO bonus points as a NR. If there are 300 NR and only 9 residents with max bonus points then you DO have a chance no matter how small, figure it out! You cannot forecast draw results as true odds based on past draw results, although it may be close. The nature of the max bonus point pool distribution and luck of the draw in that specific pool will determine your chances. Now that its hopefully clear, DON'T put in because it may only be a small chance!
 
JASN
I don't think you understand the AZ draw process. After the 8 (they actually round up) NR?s get tags in the 20% draw pool, the NR tags are over. NO OTHER NR TAGS ARE GIVEN OUT in the lottery draw. So no NR without MAX bonus points will ever get a tag in 13B.
 
YES they can. Anything is possible in a random draw. And no, they do not round up. When I asked the draw department they round down. As was mentioned, you CANNOT KNOW what will happen with something that has NEVER happened before. Now that shouldn't be too hard to understand.
 
I am looking at the draw results, and every one of them is rounded up, so I am not sure who you talked to but the clerk you talked to probably didn't understand the question or they didn't know.

My point is all of the NR or 10% of the tags (8) will go to the people with the maximum bonus points period, of which there are over 300 currently. You will never get to the random draw process for a tag unless you have max points. There will be no tags that will be given out after the max bonus point pass to NR. To say this has never happened before is also wrong; it has happened every year since the bonus point draw pass was started except for last year because the 10% NR restriction was lifted last year. This is why 57% of the tags in 13B last year went to NR?s. That will not be the case this year with the 10% cap.

Maybe this is why none of the NR?s care about the AZ draw system because they don't understand it. Just keep putting in your cash without of a chance at a tag unless you have max points, makes since to me. I wish you luck in the draw.
 
I don't know how you can say this has happened before as I personally know people, non-residents, who have drawn strip tags and "the best" bull elk tags with 0 points every year or two for the past 10. Every year somebody I know gets one of these tags as a non-resident without max points. And in case you missed it before, I AM a resident.
 
If 9 residents have max bonus points in our discussed example then there is a chance for ANY NR to draw a tag, do the math. If the draw results show that only max bonus point holders drew NR tags, then it only means the draw turned out that way, not that there was no chance before the draw took place. I am a resident as well by the way.
 
One thing that makes things different this year is Arizona went to a 20% for max bonus point pool instead of the original 10 percent.

Basically if 10% of the tags for non residents get removed during the original 20% 1st drawing then there will be no non resident tags left for that unit for that hunt number.

So for all of you non residents out there without max points all you can do is hope that less than 10 percent of the non resident tags don't get removed on the max bonus point non resident first drawing
Dom
 
As far as the premium deer hunts go I don't think anyone without max points has a much of a chance. Roughly 1/2 of the max point holders are non-res. What do you think the chances of that 1/2 not getting 1/2 of the 20%. Every year it will get worse because as the residents get 90% of the tags the percnentage of non-res. will go up in the max points pool. It will take a number of years until the entire max points pool is non-res. I do think AZ G&F will have to change the rules again or they will face another lawsuit.
 
It will always be "possible" as long as the # of residents in the max-point pool for each unit exceeds the # of max points tags gauranteed to residents. So in a unit with 100 tags (20 in max point draw, as long as there more than 10 residents in the pool, it is possible that a tag will be left for a NR to draw in the regular draw. As soon as the NR completely dominate the max point pools, it won't be possible. My money says that the AZ F&G changes before the system before that happens, not because of the threat of a lawsuit (the Reid bill gives them plenty of cover) but from pressure by residents.

"Whatever you are, be a good one."
- Abraham Lincoln
 
MN Hunter:

No matter if the NR's dominate max bonus pool, and they will if the current set up stays in place. We know that NR's will accumulate max BP's at a greater rate due to the 10% cap.

That being said however, once the NR cap is met at any given number of max points and IF the number of residents with max points aren't sufficient to cause the 20% set aside to be filled, I suspect the department would drop to the next lower tier of resident applicants to get the full compliment of residents to fill out the 20% set aside requirement.

Example. It there are 400 NR in the max bonus point pool and only 5 residents in the same pool, and they need to issue 15 tags, they would draw the seven NR's and the five residetns, then would drop to the next level of bp holders (resident only) to get the remaining 3.

NR will continue to build at a much faster rate than residents due to the 10% cap, but that won't affect residents. We still get at least 90% of the tags!

Hope this makes a little sense.

Bottom line is just another two and a half weeks and we'll know exactly what happens, cause that's when the tags- and info on the draw- will be out.

Don Martin
 
LAST EDITED ON Jun-29-06 AT 10:53AM (MST)[p]Don,
I understand what you are saying and I agree that NR will accumulate BP faster but my point is that in order for it to be "possible" for a NR to draw a random draw tag, a R will have to get a tag in the max point pool that one would expect would go to a NR. In my example above, 100 tags = 20 in max point round. If there are 11 R and 1,000 NR, it is still theoretically possible for a tag to pass through for a NR to draw if the first 11 names pulled are R and the other 9 are NR, 1 will be left for a NR to draw in the regular draw to meet the 10%. Not likely, but possible. As soon as the # of R in the max point pool drops below the # of max point tags gauranteed to them (20 max point tags, 1000 NR w/ 10 points and 9 R with 10 points) it will not be possible as the R will will only draw 9 and then 10 go to NR before the 1 remaining max point tag goes to a R with 9 points.

My point about pressure from R to change is my belief that the change will be to make NR able to get 10% of the max point pool. This would give R more opportunity to draw in the mazx point round, thus they would agree to the change.

"Whatever you are, be a good one."
- Abraham Lincoln
 
Now we're getting good accurate information about this subject. Thanks for all the posts by those who understood the process and odds, which is what I was trying to relay but with actual #'s for those who didn't understand. I agree with the last few posts that the odds may be small and only diminishing for NR to draw these tags and that some modified system will eventually need to take place.
 
MN,

You have it exactly right. Though the odds are not great, the randomness of the selection, even in the max point pool could result in several different outcomes. For any GIVEN UNIT, that outcome will depend on the ratio of Res. and NonRes. with max points that applied for THAT unit only on the first draw.

There are 75 permits in 13B this year. 15 will go to the max point pool, and only 7 NRs can draw. The only way to really see the chances are to know how many Rs and how many NRs are in the max pool for that UNIT. And lest we forget, they all have the same number of points unlike in the regular draw. So no one has an advantage in the max pool.

Even then, when the computer starts spitting out numbers, every one of the 15 could go to residents if there are more than 15 res. with max points, thus leaving the 10% cap for the general draw in that unit as is. Or, all 7 of the NR permits might go. Neither is likely, IMO.

The more likely scenario is a split somewhere between the extremes, perhaps leaving at least one or more of the available 7 NR permits for the regular draw. So while speculation fuels good discussions, the true tale will be told when the drawing is complete. :) -TONY
 
Don,

Tony M.'s post below is a virtual mimic of the position I took at the NR HE class this Spring. NR do not have a "good" chance, but they do have "a chance".

Hey, I have a nice pile of maps for your NV muley hunt, topos and NFS style maps, so do not buy any until you look over what I have.

JIM
 

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