Az Max Point Question

[caelkhnter]

This a is a little different question. It appears from all the other posts on this topic there is an assumption that if the Max points is currently 15 for deer lets say, so that if you have zero today, you start putting in and 15 years later you have Max points. Is that the way it actually works? It seems to me that if 15 is the Max points today, all of the hunters with 15 points who do not draw this year would have 16 next year, and those with 14 this year, who do not draw will have 15 next year, and so on. So it would seem to me that if you have zero points today it would take many, many years to reach Max points, because as long as those with more points than you keep in the system, and do not get drawn, the Max points will go up and make it almost impossible to catch up. So how does it really work?

 

[HornedToad]

The Max Points for deer in AZ going into the 2007 draw is 10.

And yes... it is correct that everyone with 10 points going into the 2007 draw will have 11 points going into the 2008 draw... except:

If they draw a permit, then their points go to zero, or

If they fail to apply, their points remain the same, or

If they fail to apply for the required number of years (say they lose interest... or get too old... or maybe even die), their points go to zero.

The idea behind the MP set-aside is to reward those applicants who have been putting into the draw for the most number of years... who have NOT drawn a tag.

If you begin applying today, depending upon your age, it is likely that most of those who have already accummulated points, will eventually either draw a tag, or quit applying and fall out of the draw for one of the reasons noted above.

None of us (except for the Immortals) will be able to apply for the AZ draw... forever.

 

[bragabit]

Max points for deer is 10. Starting from 0 this year I would Guess that you would have get close to 20 to reach the max pool. It looks like Arizona may start to manage for quanity rather than quality so maybe it will not take that long. I think there were close to 100,000 people that bought their first point last year.

 

[caelkhnter]

Okay but let us assume, according to info posted on another thread, that there are 240 people with Max points today, all nonresidents. Assume further there are similar numbers of people with 9 points, 8 points etc. Assume further that the 240 people with 10 points are committed, not too big an assumption to make, and that they are all trying to get a strip tag. If they are all nonresidents that means the most that can draw in any one year is 7, i.e. 10% of the 75 tags available. If just those 240 keep on trying for a strip tag it will take 34 years just to clear them off the books. Then we start looking at the others, who were just behind them, with 9, 8 etc points. Again it seems it will be impossible for a new Az nonresident hunter to ever draw a strip tag.

 

[sremim]

Your analysis is flawed. You are assuming that everybody with max points is going to apply for the same hunt with 75 tags. There are several hunts north of the strip. I highly doubt that will happen. Also to say that it will be impossible for a new comer to never draw is flawed. The system is only in its second year, and according to G&F they were not aware of the effects. So who's to say they will keep it this way? Also, it has not been proven 100% that no one without max points will not draw a strip or kaibab tag. It happened this past year. It will probably continue to happen for the next couple. I would say go for it, and maybe apply for the earlier kaibab hunts. You can still kill a monster.




It's Bush's fault!!!

 

[HornedToad]

caelkhnter... another flaw in your analysis is the implied assumption "that today's Max Point holders will continue to apply for 34 years" until they are cleared-out.

Analyses such as these commonly overlook the fact that all of us have only a limited window, or number of years, within which to draw these lottery-type tags.

I am quite sure that long before 34 years pass, I, and many others in today's Max Point pool, will be in the ground.

 

[camuleycrazy]

LVTHNT is right about the nonresident draw odds. It is going to take many years to get those of us who are max bonus point holders out of the system. Maybe not 34 but I'd bet about 20. With all the others that have some points now taking hundreds of years to draw a strip tag. If I had no points now I wouldn't waste my money. They will have to change the system someday though. Win a state lotto and buy a governors tag!

 

[FAB]

I only have 3 points for deer but I'm going to be opptomistic and keep applying (may as well since I put in for elk too). It's almost a certainty that the state will change the draw system in the future. If those changes increase NR's or resident odds for that matter I'd rather have those points ready to use than wish I had started earlier. The way the system is now a guy probly has a better chance to draw in the raffle than the regular draw as an NR with a few points.

 

[bogey]

One area that I never really see brought up and I am not trying to be bad here. What do you think would be the % of the people in the draw are older and will die or not be able to keep hunting and will have to drop out. Lets face it as most people get older they have more income and are able to do more hunts. So I would guess that a large portion will also drop out for these reasons. Sorry for the bad thoughts.

 

[BigFin]

If my wife ever discovers how much I spend on NR applications and hunts for me and my son, I will be dead, and there will be one less NR in the max deer point pool for the reason you cited.

Hope she doesn't find out until I finally draw a tag for deer north of the ditch.

"Hunt when you can - You're gonna' run out of health before you run out of money!"

 

[caelkhnter]

Not to beat a dead horse, but just follow me hear. Lets say of the 240 nonresidents with max points today only 50 are bound and determined to hold out for the strip. Lets say there are another 50 that have 9 points, and another 50 that have 8 points, and another 50 with 7 points etc, you get the picture. At then end of the day that should mean that it would take a new nonresident, who applies today with no points, well over 30 years to ever draw a strip tag?

 

[buckmster28]

You are correct and I like alot of other max points hunters will wait for a strip tag. That being said lets say there are 150 of us waiting for a strip tag this will open the door for people wanting other hunts like the kiabab's late hunt.

 

[redrabbit]

Jim,
For unit 13B, 5598 applied first choice and 1079 applied second choice last year. (I would think that most of the second choice applicants had unit 12 as first choice)
#BP, #1st choice, #2nd choice, # drawn,
9,234, 20, 20
8,430,67,2
7,304,30,6
6,433,60,11
5,470,86,3
4,437,103,5
3,676,126,10
2,907,199,9
1,861,197,8
0,846,191,1

If 73% were NR as posted in another thread, it'll be a long wait for those w/ less than max. I do not have any info about the # of res vs NR that applied for each hunt number.

Doug~RR

 

[caelkhnter]

Thanks Doug the numbers do prove my point. I think the magazines that tell nonresidents to apply for that monster muley strip tag really are not giving good or fair advice to their readers. At least some effort should be made to explain that unless they have been in the system for a number of years already, it simply does not make much since to start now. At least that is my 2 cents on the topic.

 

[CAelknuts]

This is a subject near and dear to me, as I have 10 points as a NR. I've debated which hunts to make my choice for, and still don't know what I think is the best way to go. Most years, I apply only for 13B. This past year, my son drew 12AE late with 9 points and I wondered if I'd made a mistake. It was a tough hunt, but he did manage to shoot a 188+ buck and we are both thrilled with the deer, and the experience. It was a very good deer hunting experience.

I think there are more non-res who put in for the "other" northern units that you might expect. There is a line of thinking by some very knowlegeable people that 12AW might be as good a unit to kill a 190+ buck as any of them, but that overall the 13's maybe have more of the true giant 200+ deer. Of course, there were also a good number of hunters who came home from the 13B with their tag this year from what we heard while we were down there. We also saw a few 13B bucks that were shot that weren't any bigger than some of the blacktails we kill here in CA. SO, the question I have is...is it more important to try to draw 13B, or just get the damn tag and take your chances in whichever unit you can draw? After all, you aren't going to shoot any buck if you don't have a tag.

I'd like to hear some opinions on which units other max pt. holders put in for. I'll be applying 13B and either 12AW late or 13A 2nd. Doesn't make a whole lot of sense to be super secretive about it, as everyone knows what those units are and the odds are lottery type odds. I know that at least I'll draw somewhere up there one time, probably in the next 10-12 years, and have a great hunt no matter what.

 

[redrabbit]

CAelknuts,
Here's the competition for you and others with max points. This is how many applied last year with max.

hunt,#1st choice,#2nd choice,#drawn
12AE oct,0,0,0
12AE Nov,23,14,10
12AW Oct,0,2,2
12AW Nov,34,33,36
12B Oct,1,0,1
12B Nov,5,28,15
13a,21,52,8
13b,234,20,20

Hope this helps any making a decision.

Doug~RR

 

[CAelknuts]

LAST EDITED ON Feb-09-07 AT 09:06AM (MST)[p]Thanks Doug. You just illustrated what I thought the situation probably was, but didn't have easy access to research, so thank you.

72 max points holders drew for units other than 13B. Of the 318 people with max points, 92 total were eliminated last year, and if I'm not mistaken that group includes a fair number of residents so the non-res component is smaller than 226. The existing group of max points holders will draw out a little faster than most people think, probably within the next four years I'll bet. The factor nobody can predict is how many people who are a point behind and haven't taken hunter safety will do so to jump up a notch. This will add to that group until everyone draws out, so it could get stretched quite a bit.

I remember taking my son down to Phoenix in 2001 to take hunter safety and hearing the instructors tell us how we'd likely wasted our time and money because "just getting a single extra point isn't going to help you all that much". Boy, were they ever wrong.

 

[huntindude]

I'm going for the Kaibab, I'm not sure which side yet but the rest of you guys hold out for the strip, at least until I draw.

 

[CAelknuts]

If you draw the east side, I'll gladly help you with whatever knowledge I learned down there.

 

[Anaconda]

I took the Jan. 6 Kingman class to put me in the Max deer point pool. At that time, there were 197 non resident max point holders, along with 5 of us who took that class makes 202. I figure the number of people one point down who take the class and join the max point pool will be off set by the number of people who either die, get too old to hunt, or just become over come with the urge to hunt coues deer. So roughly 200 non residents competing for those north of the ditch tags. If you only put down one choice, 13 B, it could take you seven years to draw. If you have a second choice, you will draw within three years.
As far as someone just starting out, forget the late strip and Kaibab hunts. Unless and until things change, it will never happen. There is lots of good mule deer hunting in Arizona south of the river, and there is always coues deer.

 

[HornedToad]

LAST EDITED ON Feb-10-07 AT 07:14AM (MST)[p]LAST EDITED ON Feb-10-07 AT 07:13?AM (MST)

redrabbit,

Where did you locate your AZ Deer draw info?

The letter sent March 2006 by AZGFD listed 395 persons with Max Pts. for deer. This presumably includes both R and NR.

Your analysis only includes 318 applicants making a 1st choice for deer in 2006 in one of the northern units. What happened to the other 77 Max Pts. holders (395-318=77)?

Does your 318 applicant number only cover NR, or is it a total R + NR number?

Could some of the 77 missing Max Pts. applicants have chosen not to apply in 2006, meaning that they would have failed to collect a point, thus falling out of the Max Pts. class? Or could some of these have decided to draw for one of AZ's other quality deer units?

And, Anaconda,

Where did you find your 197 number for NR Max Pts. holders "following" the 2006 draw? Was this information given out verbally at the AZ hunter ed. class?

It has been difficult over the years keeping up with the AZ points information. Every year, it seems, new applicants show up in the Max Pts. pool, in numbers well in excess of those taking the hunter ed. class. I had someone at AZGFD explain it to me once that the numbers were difficult to connect one year to the next, because some people did not apply every year. But that explanation would only relate to explaining an annual reduction in the number of Max Pts. holders... not an increase.

In any event, I appreciate the information that both of you have shared.

"Don't move the goal posts on us now!"

Happy hunting... a holder of Max Pts. for Deer in AZ

HornedToad

 

[YukonDall]

I JUST GOT IN THE MAIL 4 DAYS AGO THE ARIZ. POINT POOL NUMBERS. IT SAYS 10 POINTS IS THE MAX., AND THERE ARE 313 PEOPLE IN THAT POOL. THIS COUNTS HSC & LOYALTY POINTS AS WELL. NO HUNTER HAS 11 POINTS FOR DEER, WHERE DO YOU GUYS COME UP WITH THESE BOGUS NUMBERS AT ???? ....YD.

 

[buckmster28]

I was in the jan 6 class with anaconda and yes this is the numbers we were told by are instructor 202 with are class and this is only nonresidents, of course there was also another class taking place at the same time which may have added more. I suspect there will be no max points residents left in the next couple of years. Not that this makes any difference to us nonresidents.

 

[YukonDall]

LAST EDITED ON Feb-10-07 AT 09:47AM (MST)[p] YEA, I WAS IN THE SAME JAN. 6TH KINGMAN CLASS...THE NUMBERS OF 197 & 203 GOT KICKED AROUND ALOT. THE STATE SAYS 313 MAX. POINT HOLDERS WITH 10 POINTS.....313 WOULD BE THE SCANCTIONED NUMBER IN MY MIND... .... YD.

 

[Anaconda]

Before the class;
197 non resident
116 resident

197 + 116 = 313

With at least 5 non residents in the class, and another class being held, the total non residents is somewhere around 210.

The residents will all draw soon, any resident who puts in for anything other than 13B will probably draw this year, and thoses holding out for the strip, half this year and most of the rest next year. By 2009, the max point pool for residents will be down to those who applied for "points only", maybe a dz or so.

Horned Toad, the class instructer had a fax from Az game & fish dept. showing those numbers ( 197 & 116 ) he said they were the latest numbers.

 

[HornedToad]

LAST EDITED ON Feb-10-07 AT 10:59AM (MST)[p]YukonDall,

Why couldn't the 313 be the TOTAL number of Max Pts. holders, including both Resident and Non-Resident, while the 202 is the (approximate) number of Non-Resident only?

It would make sense that there would be more NR with 10 points at this time than R.

HornedToad

Anaconda, You beat me to the post. Thank you for the information. HT

 

[YukonDall]

OK, MY BAD...I SEE WHERE THE NUMBERS ARE COMMING FROM NOW, THANKS.
OK... THAT BRINGS UP ANOTHER QUESTION: ON A YEARLY BASIS THE LATE HUNTS NORTH OF THE DITCH (4 IN ALL I BELIEVE) YIELD ABOUT 85 TAGS & GUYS OPTING FOR OTHER DEER HUNTS: SAY 100 HUNTERS ARE ELIMINATED EVERY YEAR FROM THE TOP 10 POINT POOL. NR OR RESIDENTS IN 2007=313, 2008=213, 2009=113, 2010=13 APROX. COUNT. DO THE RESIDENTS WITH LESS THAN MAX POINTS NOW COME INTO THE PICTURE OR ARE WE LOOKING A GETTING A TAG ?? JUST WONDERING HOW THAT WILL PAN GIVEN THE NR CAP??? JUST THINKIN OUTLOUD, YD.

 

[buckmster28]

all resdents with max points should draw there hunts in the next couple of years. That means hunts like 13b with 75 tags and nonresidents only getting 7, 7 should go to residents who have one less point than nonresident max and the remaining tags go to residents by the draw. Residents with less than max points can draw any year, because not all of there tags are eaten up in the max point draw.

 

[BOHNTR]

One other factor that has not been discussed that can better odds is those hunters that are "maxed" and simply buy a deer point only.

Example: 1. A hunter who is maxed, has other hunts taking place that season and simply buys a point to remain maxed. OR....A bowhunter, with max points, buys an AO tag in January and arrows a buck. He/she can still put in for a point only during the up-coming draw and remain maxed out, thus bettering the odds for those putting in for the actual hunt.

BOHNTR )))---------->

 

[huntindude]

AZ will probably do something in the next year or two to give some chance to those without max points, if they do the max pool wil go down slower. maybe half to max points and half random draw or something like that.

 

[LVTHNT]

BOHNTR ? good point about people sitting out, but last year only one person out of the 319 that had Max Points sat out of the draw or put in for Bonus Point only choice. The other 318 applicants put in for units north of the river.

I agree that things will change some time soon, I just think those that put in for the draw should have a reasonable idea of what there chances are before they have to fork over some cash. It is one thing to charge the NR $5.00 for a chance (as in years past), but now we charge $158.75 for a zero % chance (unless you have max pts), seems a little over the top. I think AZ continues to do a great job on the draw and management of our limited resource except for this one area. It should be fixed where some of the tags fall to the 80% draw.

 

[BOHNTR]

Quote: "BOHNTR ? good point about people sitting out, but last year only one person out of the 319 that had Max Points sat out of the draw or put in for Bonus Point only choice. The other 318 applicants put in for units north of the river."

Are you sure? Both my hunting partners and I put in for points only last draw......after checking the website a few minutes ago, it shows all three of us with max points (10). Hard to beleive we were the only three that sat out???

BOHNTR )))---------->

 

[LVTHNT]

BOHNTR - this is an interesting fact, thanks for the information. The draw sheets show that 319 people with Max points (9 in 2006) applied for the draw. I guess their are others like yourself that did not enter the draw that would still have max points. So that would mean there are more than 319 people that had max points last year. There were 89 successful pepole from this group last year so remaining for 2007 draw with max would be 230 plus who ever didn't put in for the draw last year.

 

[Elmacho]

figures lie, liars figure........................

will we ever really know the true stats?

Good luck to you all this season......I'm drawing me a 13 tag.....yahooooo

Mark

 

[LVTHNT]

BOHNTR, I just found out that 89 people put in for Bonus Point only on deer last year. They couldn't give me the break down between resident and NR.

 

[BOHNTR]

Thanks Kevin.....I was beginning to wonder how accurate their statistical information was. That sounds more believable.

BOHNTR )))---------->