Cali Question

N

Naildriver

Guest
Now that alot of the max pt hunters are slimming down (x-zones),do the awarded tags go to the 1st choice applicants with the next highest pts like Colorado? Or is everyone thrown in the same hat?
 
According to the stats,if this years apps are close to last years , there are going to be a few zones that won't have or have very few max pt apps. If they don't give preference to the next highest pt holders, whats the point of the pt system?
 
the advantage is that as the max point holders draw they fall out of the pool..so the remaining max point holders have a few less people to contend with each year..I guess it is kind of like Colorado's system, in that, if a certain unit is alloted 200 tags and there are less than 200 max point holders putting in for that particular unit, then those applicants are gauranteed that tag..it all depends what unit you want..take the best units for example.. Goodale, Anderson Flat,etc..there are a lot more max point holders putting in for those units than there are tags..you can guesstimate when you may draw that tag, but in the meantime, you have a better and better chance each year as some of the max point holder draw their tag and fall out of the pool..but it still may be MANY years before a person is gauranteed those premium tags..what I like about California's system over Colorado's system is that you have a slight chance every year..where as in Colorado, you don't have any chance until you have more points than the next guy(s)..
 
Slimming down...When the bonus system started the odds of drawing a Goodale tag was around 1 in 100 or so..now..if you are a max point holder..it's probably around 1 in 50 or so..or something like that..I haven't checked it recently..but I bet it's something like that..I would call that narrowing the odds..it's just going to get better and better..and if you are patient, you will eventually get your Doyle hunt or Anderson Flat or Goodale or whatever you are waiting for..in the past..you could put in your whole life and NEVER draw those tags..
 
LAST EDITED ON Apr-08-07 AT 10:51PM (MST)[p]Currently I think there about 1500 max points applicants trying to draw like 32 of the 35 G3 tags dfg awards to max point applicants. Eevry yaer 32 less max point applicants will be in the drawing.
 
Dont forget about they 2000 or so people that are buying the point only they are just waiting for the odds to go down then they will jump in on the draw.
 
I just looked it up there is 428 people last year that applied for a point only that had max points you know they will be holding out for the mentioned above units.
 
thanks for the stats canyoncrosser..that shows my point perfect..even if 250-300 of the max point holders that just put in for points enter the draw it is still a huge improvement over the 1 in 100 that it used to be year in and year out..not to mention, some of the max point holders will cash their points in for other units as they get older..improving the odds even more..although..the more i do the math, the more i'm getting depressed..haha..i'm 35 years old now...i probably will draw it in my lifetime, but it's no gauruntee..thats ok though..i'll just concentrate on other states in the meantime..anyhow..i hope all this babble helped naildriver better understand the draw...good luck this year everybody!!
 
LAST EDITED ON Apr-09-07 AT 07:09PM (MST)[p]Honestly I don't know anyone whos even use 1 point up in a Ca
big game draw but me!they are banking points (we hunt B zone and an "X-1" again only as a 2nd choice).
so as far as I know their is no dent in odds yet!!
just to many hunters in california!
So I think if your not just lucky do not count on points to hunt a great Ca big game animal..... you would draw an LE tag
in Utah twice(every 5/6years) before X-7 tag!
rm
 
1500 max point holders For G-3? I worked the numbers out a while back and it came out something like this. If you have max number of points and want only to put in for the G3 hunt it would take 40 to 45 years for all the max point holders to draw out. This was not counting the people who only point in for points. Slimming down is waiting worth it when you can get drawn close to the same area every two or three years just different dates. This would give you a chance at a great deer just not the wall hanger that show up during the G3 hunt.
 
Drawing the Goodale,or Doyle,or the other G ZONES is about like winning the lottery (max pts) ..but there are a few X-zones that produce trophy bucks that have "slimmed down" on the max pt apps. I don't get why the next highest pt holders don't get preference for the tags.....i'm just pissy ,because buddy of mine didnt send our apps in on time one year ,and now i am a pt behind.(whine)
 
No Adult deer applications the first year in Lassen county 4 days before the deadline. Got my son in and got in for elk and antelope. Guess what? That means I archery hunt a decent X zone every other year. i couldn't have planned it any better. Wish i's have started doing that with Colorado elk 13 years ago instead of building points for a hunt I'll never draw. No pissing here, for Kali anyways.
 
A couple of other factors WILL eventually effect the draw odds for zones like G3:

1. People who get tired of waiting WILL eventually pull the trigger and cash in points for a good hunt like X12, X5, X7, etc.

2. The older population of applicants will either die off or give up (see #1)

3. New zones like the Round Valley hunt will suck applicants away from other hunts...take a look back at the numbers of applicants for Goodale (G3) the years before and after the addition of the Round Valley Hunt (G39)...it dropped!

I'm sure there are other factors that can also influence draw odds for California's premium zones. I for one expect the odds for zones like Goodale, Round Valley, Anderson Flat, Doyle M.L., etc.. to drop dramatically over the next few years. When you think about it, we are now at the point where individuals with max points can virtually choose any of the X-zone hunts and get a tag. Now that this incentive does exist, I think it will be enough to pull some (many?) applicants away from the premium zones...but we'll just have to wait and see wont we!

Good luck all in this year's lotteries across the west.
 
dear Highsierra...
1st: Any "X" zone or special hunt are a "premium" tag!!!
2nd: Older applicant's die off...WTF?
3rd: I know of no one willing to cash in for a lesser hunt!
that's what UT,WY,CO,NM,ID,NV,etc, is for..
4th: MAX points guaranties nothing except X-1(B zone does better)I think!
5th: can't beat lady luck,and yes there was a a very slight decline in hunters applying a few years back...however since the BP program the hunters who applied were at record numbers!
Last and lease can't beat lady luck!!!!
rackmaster
 
LAST EDITED ON Apr-10-07 AT 07:24PM (MST)[p]I agree with high sierra..there are a lot of people in there 50's in 60's that have max points..when they push the numbers around for goodale and realize that there is a good possibility that they may not be able to hold a gun up or be dead by the time they are guaranteed the tag, those people will start putting in for the other premium areas..as it is, I am not guaranteed that tag for another 40+ years..that probably will drop to 25-35 years as a result of what me and highsierra are stating..hell..even at 35 years of age..I will probably only keep trying for that area for another 5-10 years before cashing in on another premium area with a little better odds..I will pray for my increased odds and lady luck in the meantime..
 
RM,

Regarding your specific comments, thanks for your response...let me elaborate:

1. I consider the "G" hunts (Anderson Flat, Goodale, Round valley, etc.) more of a premium hunt than most "X" zones...like the popular X-12, X-9A, X-5's, X-7's...etc. My main criteria for saying this is that they (most "G" hunts) take place usually during a time of heavy migration or a time when rut activity is high. These conditions certainly increase the hunter's odds of taking a trophy buck. Also, remember, some X zones are not that great...Check out the success ratio in X-9C and X-10 if you want proof.

2. Last time I checked, we havent discovered the fountain of youth...yet. We all will die someday! Or, at least get so old and decrepid that we wont be able to climb all the mountains we want too. Most of us will give up putting in for Goodale or Round Valley and take a "lesser" hunt long before we get to the point that we cant get out at all. Remember, part of our "applicant-population" is over 40, 50, and even 60+. Most of these individuals simply dont have enough years in them to count on ever getting to the point where they are GUARANTEED a Goodale, Round Valley, or even Anderson Flat tag....That is if you go strictly on the odds (over 60:1 for Goodale, I believe)

3. I think if you are patient...you will see people cash in for a lesser hunt. see #2 above. If it hasn't happend yet IT WILL. When some people hear or see others killing good bucks in "lesser" zones, eventually some will give into temptation and cash in their points for a guaranteed hunt. It's easy to say, "I'm holding out!" but, in reality, most wont. For instance, some applicants are not regulars in the "out-of-state" game. These hunters depend on getting a tag in their home state to satisfy their hunger for a hunt. I'm betting that there are some of these individuals in the population of applicant currently holding max points and putting in for Goodale. After 7+ years of not pulling the trigger on a buck I would go CRAZY. Let's see how many have this affliction in the coming years....

4. I think with max points you are now guaranteed a tag for zones like X-12, X-8...and probably for some of the X-9 hunts. Check the odds for last year in the DFG's publication "Tracks".

5. I agree, lady luck plays a huge roll! But, by really disecting what the application trends are for certain hunt zones one can tip the odds for the better. Especially for antelope and elk hunts in CA...anyone else notice how the better draw odds flip back and forth between early and late hunts every other year? Maybe the same thing is happening between some of the "premium" California deer zones as well. Oops...maybe I just spilled a little secret. :)

Again, RM thanks for response...it's a fun topic for me to think about and discuss!

Good luck everyone in this year's drawings!
 
Excellent point!

But then again, when I stop to really think about it, these people may not necessarily be that wise. Why purchase a point and have NO chance of drawing because you are not in the "pool" when you could put in just as easily and have a slight chance at least? You still have to purchase the deer application to apply for the "point" so the cost is the same.

Maybe they will put in for another hunt like an X-zone.

These people are truely a wildcard...you really cant count on them doing anything predictable!
 
Just had to check in...(I just am lucky and feel it plays the biggest part of the draws).
Glad to see we can debate with out using bad words or name calling......
I wish this site was not so left side or right side(not any or very little middle ground). I also wish ALL MONSTER MULEYS brothers luck in this years draw!
Jack
 
There are already max point holders willing to burn their points on X zone hunts. We here from people all the time that are already on the fence and they're only 5 or so years into the point game.
 
I agree that there is no way G3 is going to take 40 to 45 years. Just look at other states that have there golden hunt and u will see most guys will jump ship to draw a tag. I am going to say in about 20 years even the hardest hunt will turn over in the max point pool.I hunt out of state alot and i can tell u, U can pretty much pick out the worst unit in NV or Co and it is as good as are top X zone hunts no joke. For me why waste points on a hunt in Ca that i can get out of state every year with no points and is most likely better. There is hunts in Co right now that take 0 to 2 points to draw that are better than maybe all of are late season hunts in Ca except maybe one or two. Thats pretty sad but true.I still love to hunt my home state and i wished are deer heards were better but there not. The one good thing is we have world class elk and lopes but trying to get a tag is a whole other topic.
 
I agree it may trim down from 40 - 45 years to say something like 25 - 30 years. Even at 20 years to me it is not worth the wait when x9a and x9b can be drawn every two to three years. That is something like 7 to 9 hunts in a 20 years time frame all in the same area. All it would take is a early winter and you have the same hunt as G-3 and G-39. With 7 - 9 hunting season one would think a person would hit a season that had a early winter. Just my two cents good luck in the draw.
 
Hey rackmaster can u send a little luck my way. I know anything is possible because my wife went on a crazy run of tags in the late 90s and early 2000. She drew two bull tags in Ca in some of the hardest draw odds hunts and drew a D Garden muzz deer tag in one 4 year period. She had alot of guys around here thinking they needed a sex change to get a dang tag. She did kill a B&C bull to top it off. I my self have never even drawn a tag in my great state. The only tags i have had anybody could get. I do shoot for the moon on most of the draws in Ca though.
 
on the way double "AA"ron...that very good luck she has(you never loose it you know).
rm
 
I disagree rackmaster that every x tag is a great tag. I live in the x 10 area, unless you can hunt the desert area that is not the truth. X-10 has high area, if you think you can drive the roads & shoot form from the truck, that aint happening. If you are talking about great tags, anderson flat & goodale hunts, I am with you. Any other hunt other than x 10 I am not expert in. Remember me met you last year on the lope hunt with my son, likley tables. Chase shot record book for Calif. Mike
 
Hmmm... Likely Tables, what a unique name for a son. LOL. Just kidding! Congrats on the buck.
 
I remember all 3 of you guys! ya that was a fun hunt!
what you guys in for this year?
me, NV,WY,UT,CO,NM! Mostly deer!
jack
 
As far as i can tell there was about 4000 max point holders that applied for deer tags last year,1500 for G-3.Ive been putting in for G-3 for many years and im going on 52, those's hills are getting taller and taller,but i will not jump ship for lesser tag,only because i have taken some good bucks out of state.
 
Rackmaster yes the lope hunt was fun in Likeley. I hope I can get drawn, I am not very lucky. Put in ut for points, WY for points, but we are hunting Wy on a private ranch, that my friend has access to. Colo. we are trying to draw. Nevada trying to draw for deer & lopes, elk just points. Montana we skip this year for points, should draw next year. Calif. trying everything with max points, thats about it. Mike
 
Naildriver,

Looks like a lot of folks went off on a tangent(time to draw premier G hunts), so I'll try and bring it back.

The way I understand it, the pp system in cali will work how it does in colo w/ the exception that 25% of the tags will be in a random draw. So, 75% of the tags for each hunt will go to those w/ the most points. If only half, for example, of the folks in that 75% category, actually have max points, then they will give some of those "75% tags" to those w/ one less than max pts (same as colo). At least that's how I'm assuming it works based upon past years statistics.

I think a lotta guys are way off on how long they think it will take them to draw a tag in some of the premier units. My guess is that the majority of folks who stay in the max pool will draw their deer tag w/n 10 years, even on some of the "super hunts." There's only a handful of guys who are adament enough to not miss an app in the next 10 years. My guess is that most of those will draw by then.

www.languageoflandscape.com
 
Weavervillain is correct with the exception that Calif. gives
90% of the tags through the preference quota and only 10% of the tags through the random drawing.
 
I will agree most units will turn over in 10 years but there is no way in heck G3 or the Round valley hunt will turn over in 10 years. And as far as guys forgetting to send in with max points dont count on it. If u have been in the game 5 years already and have not hunted u are most likely in it for the long haul or until u draw. I am sure there is a tiny few who will forget to send or give up but not many. With all these new points systems in all the western states guys have found out how important these points are for U to draw out a great tag.
 
>Weavervillain is correct with the exception
>that Calif. gives
>90% of the tags through the
>preference quota and only 10%
>of the tags through the
>random drawing.

Oops, thanks Norby. You'd think I'd know the way a draw works if I'm trying to explain it to someone. LOL. Guess I got Wyoming on my mind. LOL. Gotta watch out for those brain farts; yikes!

Aaron,

I think you'll be surprised what the Goodale stats look like in 10 years.


www.languageoflandscape.com
 
Just got my California Application packet in the mail yesterday...of couse I spent hours pouring over the new hunts, draw odds, etc.

Maybe some of you were right...yes, you, RACKMASTER! The odds for drawing Goodale (G-3) got tougher last year! The number of max point applicants increased by around 20 (cant recall exact number) for the same number of tags (32). I have made it a practice to keep the "Tracks" issue for each year since the change to the preference point system. This way I can track trends myself.

Did any of you notice any other increases in draw odds for other premium hunts?...or, on the flip side, any major decreases? Possibly some people jumped from G-37, G-39, or others to the G-3 hunt????
 
HS, where do you live, Sacto? I haven't got mine as of 5:00 PM Thursday. The first year of PP's, nobody in Lassen County got a Tracks until the week after the deadline. I don't believe in conspiracy theorys but that was suspicious. It could be all of our love for F&G.
 
I dont live in Sacramento! Boy you couldnt pay me enough to put up with the traffic, noise, crime and, worst of all, the TULE FOG! I think it makes people a little crazy down there in the central flat lands!

I make my home in Tuolumne County, near Sonora, CA.

I'm fortunate enough to have several private properties and lots of public land that I have access to. Although I always try for the "premium" hunts in the draw, at least I can count on getting a D-6 tag (as a second choice) every year without losing my points. That's one good thing about our system here in california, you only forfeit your points when you draw your FIRST choice. Many people I have met have failed to pick up on this aspect of the system. Some of us are out there harvesting good deer in some zones (A, B, C and D) while still building points and increasing our odds for the "premium" or "general methods" late season hunts.
 
>HS, where do you live, Sacto?
> I haven't got mine
>as of 5:00 PM Thursday.
> The first year of
>PP's, nobody in Lassen County
>got a Tracks until the
>week after the deadline.
>I don't believe in conspiracy
>theorys but that was suspicious.
> It could be all
>of our love for F&G.


Prolly just the lifetime license holders that have 'em already (willing to bet HS is a fellow lifer). Usually recieve mine a few days before my Dad recieves his (he doesn't have a lifetime license). If you're really anxious to see this quarters copy of Tracks....err....California Hunting Digest (new name for it), DFG has an electronic copy of it on their website.

www.languageoflandscape.com
 
I have been keeping track of the G3 drawing stats (amongst others)and here are the stats since 03:

2003
25 total tags, 23 pref pt tags, 3314 total apps, 2203 max pt apps, 1.04% pref pt drawing, .06% random draw

2004
35 total tags, 32 pref pt tags, 3006 total apps, 1548 max pt apps, 2.07% pref pt drawing, .10% random drawing

2005
35 total tags, 32 pref pt tags, 3400 total apps, 1482 max pt apps,
2.16% pref pt drawing, .09% random drawing

2006
35 total tags, 32 pref pt tags, 4187 total apps, 1508 max pt apps,
2.12% pref pt drawing, .07% random drawing

There are 428 max deer point holders sitting on the sidelines which could dramatically affect the draw odds if and when they elect to apply.

The draw odds do not look like they are improving much to me but time will tell. The draw odds improvement in 2004 was due to the increased quota coupled with the drop in max point applicants. Other than that the draw odds have remained pretty much the same the last 3 years. The draw odds for those of us with maximum points actually got worse last year from the drawing odds in the previous year 2005.

Though the odds are steep, I will keep putting in for this hunt and hunt other states and the other CA OTC zones for now. As most of us hardcore hunters know, you won't draw a premium tag without applying. Someone has to draw, and even if you are without maximum points and just in the random draw, it could be you!

Good luck to everyone in the drawing this year!

Horniac
 
I wish you would have posted your work yesterday...it would have saved me a lot of math last night!

The change you noted about the draw odds changing in 2004 might have been due to the addition of the g-39 hunt. I know some locals in the Eastern Sierra that applied for that hunt rather than Goodale when it came online.
 
Look at the number of max point holds that drop out of the sheep and antelope drawing ( it's easier than the deer) to give you an idea of the drop out rate, in the max pool.
Jay
 

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