Cutting Losses

krazy

Member
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85
Greetings to all the MMers out there. I have only posted a few times, as I am barely more than a novice, and make no claim of being an expert in anything. But, I have enjoyed some great insight and hunting stories from you all over the years.

As many are, I am becoming more frustrated with my inability to draw an elk tag in Utah. I won't get much sympathy, as I only have 9 points, and others have many more and have still been unsuccessful. Still, I hope to get some conversation.

I grew up near Fillmore, UT, and I have dreamed of hunting elk on the Pahvant. That dream seems to be getting further away rather than closer. I am considering cutting my losses and applying for a different unit, and perhaps applying for a muzzleloader tag instead of a rifle.

So, my question: If you had to choose between a muzzleloader hunt or a late season rifle hunt, which would you prefer?

Any insight is appreciated! Good luck to all this year!
 
LAST EDITED ON Jul-25-14 AT 11:14AM (MST)[p]LAST EDITED ON Jul-25-14 AT 10:54?AM (MST)

LAST EDITED ON Jul-25-14 AT 10:53?AM (MST)

Good post krazy - I am in a similar boat. I have 10 pts for elk and want to hunt the Bookcliffs, where I grew up, but am now a Non-resident so it might be another 20 years before I draw. I am turning 42 in a month so I might age myself out of ever being able to actully hunt the tag I want to draw, especially for a rifle.

So I have looked at both options you speak of - the odds are usually considerably better on the late season rifle hunt on most areas, but the muzzleloader hunt is usually the better quality hunt. So you really have to decide where you want to hunt, look at the best odds, then scout, scout, scout and then find the bull you want to take.

For the Fillmore/Pahvant last year there were 20 late season resident tags - a in 13.8 chance of successfully drawing. There were 10 total tags drawn for muzzleloader, (9 for residents, 1 for a non-resident) giving you a 1 in 18.3 chance of drawing.

I know you said you were looking in to different areas, so I just used the Pahvant as an example - it will vary from area to area.

As for me - I am going to keep on applying for the Bookcliffs, but I am making the ML hunt my priority. I will draw for it a lot sooner than I will for the general season and it is a much better quality hunt than the late season. I hunted the spike hunt out there 2 years ago and we saw a lot of good sized bulls, but most were broken up and were in the 310-320 range. Most of the bigger 330-350 bulls (or bigger) were already taken.

It is the only place I really want to hunt, so I am not going to burn my points for a different area. Since I am a NR - it is going to take a few years for me to draw a decent elk tag anyway, if I never draw, I just won't hunt.

I am looking in to hunting other states where it is easier to draw. Wyoming is at the top of my list. I have found it is easier to draw ML tags there too. So that is going to be my first choice in most areas.

Much luck to you!


HOOK 'EM!
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I am no mathematician, but I am curious enough I might try to do the research and crunch the numbers to determine how old I will be before I draw. Assuming I could chart the trends in applications, new applicants coming into the pool, the projected max-point applicants going to the back of the line, and how many applicants have more points than I do, and trends of tags given (and likely other factors I haven't thought of off the top of my head) I should be able to estimate the probable year I would draw. I will probably be about 50 or so.

Granted, that wouldn't be an exact science, but could be a good way to make a more informed decision about whether or not I should take a chance and burn my points now.
 
it took a lot of us 20 to25 years to draw and the odds where better than now, good luck.. ask elkassissin
 
Yeah, I have used that and other sites to see the current odds. The mathematics part I was referring to was extrapolating that information out to estimate how long before I would be "guaranteed" a tag, and to see how my odds might increase as time goes on.

I understand 20-25 years has been the wait time for many people, and longer for others like Elkassassin (and my old man for that matter). I expect my wait will be much longer than that based on current numbers. And because when the current scheme rolled out I was too young to know any better and I alternated applying for deer and elk. So, largely due to my own stupidity, I have 9 points for elk, 7 points for deer, and therefore not much chance of hunting either on my preferred units for a very long time.

But, even still, I can't wait to get out in the pumpkin patch this fall.

Thanks again!
 
Drawing a tag in UT has eluded me every year for a long time. I've got 18 pts for LE deer to prove it. However, UT was gracious to me this year and gave me a LE archery elk permit with 5 points. Oh, and I'm a NR too. So, the lesson, it can happen and until then keep at it. Especially if you're young.
 
I'd keep trying for the early rifle or muzzle loader tag. When you get to a point where you have the required points to most likely guarantee a late season tag for a unit you desire to hunt, then switch over.

My thought is if you are going to roll the dice, roll them on the better season. Once you get enough points to predict you will draw, then you can start scouting say the year before and really get to know the unit especially during the actual dates you are expecting to draw the late tag in the following year. You will know where to expect the animals, quality and quantity before the season starts.


Mntman

"Hunting is where you prove yourself"


Let me guess, you drive a 1 ton with oak trees for smoke stacks, 12" lift kit and 40" tires to pull a single place lawn mower trailer?
 
After putting in for LE elk in Utah for 16 years, I drew the muzzleloader Pahvant elk tag in 2012. It was a blast! The elk were still going nuts and I ended up with a nice bull. I put In for the rifle hunt every year and finally just put in for the muzzy. Glad I did. But now I have to wait another 20 years before I do it again.....
 
Muzzy all the way. I have always put in for the rifle but this year I switched it to muzzy. I drew the central Manti LE Elk with only 6 points. I have already been scouting and I have seen some great bulls.
 
I would just keep after it. I thought I was only half way there with just 8 points when my wife said " what is this $285 Utah bucks drawing" my heart dropped and now I'm trying to get ready for a hunt that I thought was years away. This is probably the wrong thread but anyone know where those mossback status bulls are hiding at? (wasatch early rifle) kidding... but seriously
 
I have 18 points and couldn't draw the Monroe muzzleloader tag.... I thought for sure it was mine. I almost cried
 
>I have 18 points and couldn't
>draw the Monroe muzzleloader tag....
>I thought for sure it
>was mine. I almost cried
>


Seriously? A high point holder must have jumped over. That tag has never needed more than 16. But with so few tags given, it only takes one with max points to get tired of waiting.
 
I did the number crunching and decided I wanted to hunt sooner, rather than later. I ended up applying for a late hunt that can be drawn easily with 11 points, and still has potential for a real trophy. I got a bit lucky and drew with 6 points, but i was prepared for the 10-11 year Wait.

That being said, if you've never hunted elk in the rut, go for the MZ tag for sure!


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