Sip away gents sip away.
C3, you cant point to the law of diminishing returns here. that's what you are saying with the increase in permits. That would only fly if the population counts remained status quo.
Charina, my assertion of falling success rates is based SOLEY off of the LE antlerless numbers. The divisions best guess on the control permits was a 10-20% success. If I were to factor that in then we are well over half....
It really isn't complicated, between 2006 and 2010, success rates on LE antlerless had a unit wide 55% average. Then when they flew in 2011, supposedly found a butt ton of elk and issued permits accordingly, success began to fall. The average between 2011-14 is now below 30%. NOT COUNTING CONTROL PERMITS. If I factor those in, then its closer to 23-25%.
Now, this makes perfect sense like C3 says if the population remains the same. But it doesn't. 2006-2010 had pop estimates between 54-5900 head if I'm remembering this right. Then with the flight, it jumped to 7700 head. Following lower than expected success rates it went even further to 8900 head.
Now, here's a lesson for you gents, how does a computer know whether to issue 1 or 1 million permits? It takes an average success rate from years past and makes a guess based off of that to issue a sufficient number of permits to get to objective. Biologists then take that number and given feed back from boots on the ground, adjust it to conform with the 5 year management plan.
So, given that, there are realistically only 2 options that have happened on the Wasatch. #1 the count was flawed. This is a possibility given that 2011 was our last significant winter. It isn't all that hard to think that the snow pushed a few hundred extra elk onto the unit from the Manti, avintaquin, and Uinta's. That coupled with sightablity that was over the 85% they gave it equals the additional elk they counted. From there the computer just snowballs the problem.
and/or
#2 the model is flawed. This is another possibility. If the model's equation fails to take into account elk that are inaccessible and issues excessive permits based off of that, in a few short years we will have over harvested. I personally don't subscribe to this as much as #1. Simply because I've gone to the effort of contacting the land owners that are 'harboring' all the elk and they have said the same things, less elk, no elk, where are all the elk. Even the ones that said they have elk, when pinned down didn't have anywhere near the numbers they should have.
Both of those are very logical realities with substantial supporting evidence found in success rates, and sportsmen's observations.
C3 you cannot explain it. It's impossible, that's why there is a committee working to address the problems facing the unit.
Now concerning the statewide objective, and the assertion that we have more elk than we have ever had SO WHAT??????
For the last decade, we have heard the same story, read closely and see if this makes sense.
Cattlemen complain to wildlife board: 'TOO MANY ELK' 'EATING ALL MY FEED' 'LOOSING AUM'S'
Wildlife board issues more permits to deal with problem.
Sportsmen buy permits, hunt elk complain: 'CANT FIND ELK' 'NO ELK' 'ALL ON PRIVATE LAND'
Next year, Wildlife board hears from cattlemen: 'TOO MANY ELK' 'EATING ALL MY FEED' 'LOOSING AUM'S'
Wildlife board issues more permits to deal with problem:
Sportsmen buy permits: 'CAN'T FIND ELK' 'NO ELK' 'ALL ON PRIVATE LAND'
and so on and so forth.
It's a broken record, so where are all these elk????
THEY ARE RIGHT WHERE WE PUSHED THEM TOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! THEY ARE LIVING ON THE DANG CATTLEMEN'S PROPERTY CAUSE THATS WHERE THEY ARE SAFE. WE SEND MORE FOOT SOLDIERS OUT EVERY YEAR TO PUSH THE STUPID ONES RIGHT BACK ON TO THE FIELDS THAT THE CATTLEMEN ARE COMPLAINING ABOUT.
Now, the AUM's are a whole nother can of worms. That's a battle between the ranchers and the federal government over the Taylor Grazing act. They aren't loosing AUM's to elk, they are loosing AUM's to whatever plausible excuse the blm can come up with. The fed is sick of loosing money to the ranchers because of the Taylor Grazing act. Until the sides can come together and find a solution, the fed is gonna do all it can to run them right out of business.
This broken record of management rubbish that we continue to deal with is ridiculous. The sportsmen by in large, take it right up the keister on a yearly basis because of factors largely out of their control.
The problems facing the Wasatch and the problems facing the state are two very different things. One is largely political, the other biological in nature. Both are absurd.
