trphymuleyhntr
Member
- Messages
- 63
Does any know if there is a updated website or something else we can look at for next years draw odds. The only ones that I found were for 2008. Go UTES!!
2009 Hunt Odds
- Thread starter trphymuleyhntr
- Start date
Founder
Founder Since 1999
- Messages
- 11,469
I'm glad you reminded me!!! Our Utah, Wyoming, Idaho, and
Colorado odds have been updated. Other states will be updated soon!
Here's the link to our odds system (It's at the top of all pages of this site:
http://huntodds.monstermuleys.com/
Brian Latturner
MonsterMuleys.com
Colorado odds have been updated. Other states will be updated soon!
Here's the link to our odds system (It's at the top of all pages of this site:
http://huntodds.monstermuleys.com/
Brian Latturner
MonsterMuleys.com
D
DallanC
Guest
Those odds are DEAD A S S WRONG. I looked up a hunt I put in for last year and it shows *NO-ONE* put in with the amount of points I had. There should have been at least 1 application in the point column for my # of points but it shows zero. Also, it showed *NO-ONE* that put in had more points than me, yet I didnt draw.
-DallanC
-DallanC
DallanC
Could you please give me some more information as to which state and unit your are refering to. It is possible that I made a mistake and would certainly want to correct it. There are also some other possibilities that could have caused the situation you are describing that I can look into. If you don't want to publicly state which unit, shoot me a PM.
Thanks,
Jon
www.HuntersTrailhead.com
Could you please give me some more information as to which state and unit your are refering to. It is possible that I made a mistake and would certainly want to correct it. There are also some other possibilities that could have caused the situation you are describing that I can look into. If you don't want to publicly state which unit, shoot me a PM.
Thanks,
Jon
www.HuntersTrailhead.com
Founder
Founder Since 1999
- Messages
- 11,469
DallanC, which unit and hunt are you talking about? It is always possible that a peice of data could have been entered wrong. BUT also, point averaging could have caused your application to be entered in a different point category, if you applied with someone else. There are also other reasons that Jon understands better than I that could cause a discrepency.
I would greatly appreciate you telling me the unit and hunt you applied for and the number of points you had so that we can verify our data. (PM me if you would like)
You were extremely confident (I assume you are absolutely certain) in your post that our odds are wrong, please help us out and tell us where you are seeing the error. Jon puts a lot of time and effort into providing a service that is accurate and trust-worthy.
Many people would have chosen to just email me or Jon and stated what they found so that we could have fixed the problem, if there is a problem at all. I apologize if we have made mistake somewhere.
Brian Latturner
MonsterMuleys.com
I would greatly appreciate you telling me the unit and hunt you applied for and the number of points you had so that we can verify our data. (PM me if you would like)
You were extremely confident (I assume you are absolutely certain) in your post that our odds are wrong, please help us out and tell us where you are seeing the error. Jon puts a lot of time and effort into providing a service that is accurate and trust-worthy.
Many people would have chosen to just email me or Jon and stated what they found so that we could have fixed the problem, if there is a problem at all. I apologize if we have made mistake somewhere.
Brian Latturner
MonsterMuleys.com
I look forward to this awsome service again this year! It was a great tool last year, especially with Hunt Odds going corporate. I commend you guys for seeing a gap and jumping to take advantage of it. I KNOW from crunching numbers myself how tedious and time consuming this is. I cant thank you guys enough for compiling, publishing it in an easy to read format and throwing it out there for FREE! Seriously THANK YOU!
D
DallanC
Guest
Seeing as I'm going to change what unit I'm applying for in the comming year why not: Moose, 13 points, Two Bears CWMU.
Stats show no-one put in with more than 12 points. Dig around on these forums... several people have mentioned inaccuracys. There was one reciently about Bookcliffs elk. Odds showed no-one put in for the unit with more than X points, yet the poster said he had +X points.
/shrug
Its too bad the F&G keeps the draw results anonymous now to check up on whos getting what. I think the fishy things are happening on their end.
-DallanC
Stats show no-one put in with more than 12 points. Dig around on these forums... several people have mentioned inaccuracys. There was one reciently about Bookcliffs elk. Odds showed no-one put in for the unit with more than X points, yet the poster said he had +X points.
/shrug
Its too bad the F&G keeps the draw results anonymous now to check up on whos getting what. I think the fishy things are happening on their end.
-DallanC
DallanC,
OK. I have gone through the numbers and this is what I have found. The odds system shows 3 applicants with 12 points for that hunt. And you are correct in that it does not show any applicants above that level. To make sure that I calculated things correctly I verified that my system matches the DWR application reports - and it does. So based on these findings, the odds are as accurate as they can be. Now there could certainly have been an error on the application reports, but obviously that is not something I can anticipate.
Is it possible that you applied for a different hunt by accident? Have your verified your application record with Hunt Systems in Nevada? Maybe there was an error made with your application and you were not actually in for that hunt? I doubt that is the case, but those are the only possibilities I can think of.
Good luck in this years drawings. With the 14 points you now have, you are very close to a moose permit.
Jon
www.HuntersTrailhead.com
OK. I have gone through the numbers and this is what I have found. The odds system shows 3 applicants with 12 points for that hunt. And you are correct in that it does not show any applicants above that level. To make sure that I calculated things correctly I verified that my system matches the DWR application reports - and it does. So based on these findings, the odds are as accurate as they can be. Now there could certainly have been an error on the application reports, but obviously that is not something I can anticipate.
Is it possible that you applied for a different hunt by accident? Have your verified your application record with Hunt Systems in Nevada? Maybe there was an error made with your application and you were not actually in for that hunt? I doubt that is the case, but those are the only possibilities I can think of.
Good luck in this years drawings. With the 14 points you now have, you are very close to a moose permit.
Jon
www.HuntersTrailhead.com
D
DallanC
Guest
Yes my information is correct, hunt# applied for, # of points and even the UNsuccessful letter.
I didnt mean to imply YOUR system was in error... only that the result was. A mathmatical formula can be correct, but garbage in = garbage out. Its curious that discrepencys between published draw odds and the users that put in for specific hunts with specific #'s of points, are seeming to increase as hunters check up on their applications vs the published odds. Again, I wish they didnt make the drawn people's names annonymous.
You draw odds system is neat and a good guideline of trends and whatnot, even with some minor inaccuracys.
-DallanC
I didnt mean to imply YOUR system was in error... only that the result was. A mathmatical formula can be correct, but garbage in = garbage out. Its curious that discrepencys between published draw odds and the users that put in for specific hunts with specific #'s of points, are seeming to increase as hunters check up on their applications vs the published odds. Again, I wish they didnt make the drawn people's names annonymous.
You draw odds system is neat and a good guideline of trends and whatnot, even with some minor inaccuracys.
-DallanC
R
redrabbit
Guest
AZ has published the 2008 draw odds by bonus point for each hunt number. See the pdf reports linked on this page:
http://www.azgfd.gov/eservices/BonusPointProcess.shtml
http://www.azgfd.gov/eservices/BonusPointProcess.shtml
muleyhunter413
Active Member
- Messages
- 422
I also would like to thank you for at taking the time to crunch the numbers and give us this tool. Much appreciated.
P
Prism
Guest
I know of several units that have screwed up odds from the DWR's report.
Makes a guy wonder if they're all messed up or just a few.
Makes a guy wonder if they're all messed up or just a few.
Silentstalker
Long Time Member
- Messages
- 3,135
When it asks for 2008 points it means 1 less than the DWR shows right now that I have correct?
Silentstalker,
That is correct. To properly highlight your point level, you need to take one away from your current point total. The odds are based on the applications from the most recent drawing - before you earned your last point.
Good question.
Jon
www.HuntersTrailhead.com
That is correct. To properly highlight your point level, you need to take one away from your current point total. The odds are based on the applications from the most recent drawing - before you earned your last point.
Good question.
Jon
www.HuntersTrailhead.com
trphymuleyhntr
Member
- Messages
- 63
2009 Hunt Odds Group or Individual App.
Can anyone answer this??? Are my ODDs better if I put in for the Book cliffs any weapon with 8 pts or as a group with an average of 5 pts each??
Can anyone answer this??? Are my ODDs better if I put in for the Book cliffs any weapon with 8 pts or as a group with an average of 5 pts each??
AWHOLELOTTABULL
Long Time Member
- Messages
- 4,357
It's not an exact science. There are going to be errors no matter what. It does give you a pretty good idea of the probability factor with your application. I for one appreciate the effort to compile all that data. For those that want to complain.......I would say call and get the data from the fish and game yourself (good luck on that one) and do all the calculations then the only one you can ##### at is yourself. Keep the data coming Brian and Jon.
It's always an adventure!!!
www.awholelottabull.com
It's always an adventure!!!
www.awholelottabull.com
trphymuleyhntr
Member
- Messages
- 63
RE: 2009 Hunt Odds Group or Individual App.
LAST EDITED ON Nov-24-08 AT 04:19PM (MST)[p]>Is that a trick question? 8
>points will give you a
>better shot than 5 points.
>
>
>Steve
I know that part. I was wondering if each guy in the group will receive his own like lottery draw number. So we would have a better chance with four numbers as a group rather the just one.
I am not sure how it works exactly but, I read the Proc. and thats how I read it. Can anyone explain the difference in the two options?
I would like my father, brother, father in-law and me to draw out but, I have 8 pts and can't decide if I want to go alone.
Also I read another thread from a group that only had I think 3 or 4 pts and was chosen as alternates. How does that work if other apps. had more pts?
LAST EDITED ON Nov-24-08 AT 04:19PM (MST)[p]>Is that a trick question? 8
>points will give you a
>better shot than 5 points.
>
>
>Steve
I know that part. I was wondering if each guy in the group will receive his own like lottery draw number. So we would have a better chance with four numbers as a group rather the just one.
I am not sure how it works exactly but, I read the Proc. and thats how I read it. Can anyone explain the difference in the two options?
I would like my father, brother, father in-law and me to draw out but, I have 8 pts and can't decide if I want to go alone.
Also I read another thread from a group that only had I think 3 or 4 pts and was chosen as alternates. How does that work if other apps. had more pts?
LAST EDITED ON Nov-24-08 AT 04:40PM (MST)[p]Has anyone tried to get the names of successful applicants throught the Freedom of Information Act? know they say they wont make the information public, but names and addresses are not information that can be kept from the public under the FIA! I'd do it, but I just don't care enough to send in the request.
It seems MM could request the names, post them on this site, to allow taxidermists, guides, outfitters, and interested public to view it.
It seems MM could request the names, post them on this site, to allow taxidermists, guides, outfitters, and interested public to view it.
S
Salmonfg
Guest
I believe personal information is protected under most FOIA requests. At least I am required to black out personal information for FOIAs that include any personal data (e.g., phone numbers, addresses, SSNs). Keep in mind that the "interested public" might include some people you might not necessarily want to have your personal information (e.g., identity thieves, some groups known for animal rights terrorist activity). Protection of personal data is a very serious issue for government agencies and private organizations in this day and age.
Tom Keegan
IDFG Salmon Region Wildlife Manager
Tom Keegan
IDFG Salmon Region Wildlife Manager
Ticks N Tines
Very Active Member
- Messages
- 1,647
That's BS! So according to the numbers, you should have been hunting Moose this year? That's a bunch of crap dude, I would call the DWR and ask them what the Hell they did wrong. All we need is someone screwing with our dream hunts like that. 13 years is a long time to wait to hunt, and you deserve some answers. I would be super pissed If I was you, They need to give you an extra point for a different species for messing up because you should have drawn last year and you would have put in for something else this coming season right? So they stole a point from you and they should give it back.
Great system they have going there.
No disrespect to MM, they do a great job with the odds. This was the DWRs mess, and they need to know about it.
Great system they have going there.
No disrespect to MM, they do a great job with the odds. This was the DWRs mess, and they need to know about it.
F
flinger
Guest
The system has some bugs. Last year, my information page on the nevada site showed having 7 points for cougar, but actually if I was to count up all the times I put in going through my application history & records I only had 6 points and 6 points is the max number of points that showed up on the odds report. I was ticked like you are, but when I found out what was going on I cooled off a little although you'd think they would coordinate all their data systems. BTW, I didn't draw. One of the 2 with 6 points that didn't. I think the nevada website and whatever other information sheets you get from the DWR may be showing one more point than you actually have like it did with mine.
