Will the Ecomony Affect Your 2009 Hunt Plans

JFWRC

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LAST EDITED ON Dec-12-08 AT 05:32AM (MST)[p]As an outfitter, I have wondered what to do about my business plan for 2009. I know many of MM members don't use outfitters and I respect that. I'm just curious whether the love of hunting will be on the chopping block for most folks. For me, that will be one of the last things to go, like air and water. I'm sure things are hurting in a lot of areas of the country. I can't imagine things won't be affected. Your humble opinion is kindly requested.Thanks, Jim
 
Hey Jim.
I believe hunters will always hunt.
I remember bad times when venison was the only meat on our table but it was still the best of both worlds. Hunting and good eats.
If you have to reduce fees to fill your calendar then that's what you'll do. I just think you'll have a full schedule if you can give hunters what they want.
Ray
 
We might see a price correction in the hunting industry.
Those $8,00 -$10,00 hunts may be be going cheap like $6,000 -$8,000.
http://www.piscatorialpursuits.com/forum/images/graemlins/default_dark/grin.gif[/IMG]
I'm curious to see what kind of turnout the SCI & other big shows have this year.
HH
 
After sitting out this years hunts because I drew a goose egg, I've been saving up and itching to get in all the applications for '09 and book a BC goat hunt for 2010.

Then this week my employer announces massive layoffs starting in the next few months and I'm thinking this could get ugly. I've already survived one round of layoffs.

So yea, plans to book a 2010 hunt and apply as a non resident in 4 states for '09 are being rethought. Might have to stay in my home state this year and cut back on non-res applications.

I wouldn't miss the Hunt Expo and the chance to apply for those 5 non-res only tags. :)

Oakbuck
 
Will serious hunters stop hunting, no. Funds spent on hunting are not discretionary, at least for me they are not. Now high dollar guided hunts, that is another issue. Folks may rethink those plans. Although as one in the wealth management business, I will say that the truly rich are still rich and they will still spend. If that is your client base as an outfitter, you probably won't see any change.
 
>Will serious hunters stop hunting, no.
> Funds spent on hunting
>are not discretionary, at least
>for me they are not.
> Now high dollar guided
>hunts, that is another issue.
> Folks may rethink those
>plans. Although as one
>in the wealth management business,
>I will say that the
>truly rich are still rich
>and they will still spend.
> If that is your
>client base as an outfitter,
>you probably won't see any
>change.


I agree, all depends on your fee's = type of clients...
 
I'm thinking it will not affect the high end guys, a 40% loss on a lot is still a lot. It will hurt yhe guys reaching for a mid level hunt. I think landowner tag prices will drop for the sub $5K tags. As far as low end DIY goes, gas is cheap now. Maybe a few may drop out of drawings, but only those without a paycheck.
 
LAST EDITED ON Dec-12-08 AT 10:24AM (MST)[p]My guess is you ask this question again in April and the answer is a resounding YES!

Will folks stop hunting = NO.

Will folks be realizing just how bad things really are in April = YES!

For example, credit is already dried up, but people don't realize their credit limits are also drying up. In other words, any average Joe is going to have to have cash in hand.
 
Since I'm in the mortgage business, I've certainly felt the effects of our slow economy. My 2008 plans were seriously curtailed for a lot of things, but I still managed to go hunting on the only out of state tag I was able to draw. Plus, I did all my regular hunting here in-state. What we did do was apply for points only in more states, and we also skipped a few drawings where the odds are extremely low of getting drawn, stuff like Montana sheep, moose, goat. We also didn't apply for Colorado moore or sheep, but we did apply for deer and elk points.

I think that 2009 will likely be a little better for us than 2008 was, and I expect to be drawn for one or two good hunts between my son and I, and we'll be making those trips if that happens.
 
I agree!Your guys buying the top end hunts (10K and up) will not be affected but if the economy continues to worsen into 2009 it could get ugly. My sales are down 50% and I sell a major commodity. One of my buddies who typically spends 20K+ hunting said he will likely be cutting way back. Your upper middle class buys many of the hunts in the 3-6K. That will be the hardest hit market. I hope I'm wrong, but reality is reality.I doubt people will quit hunting but they may be hunting a lot closer to home on a resident tag.

Mike
 
Life is too short not to hunt. I gave up golf when my kids started college, but not hunting. Something else will have to go first: the minivan, cable, the big screen, maybe even the G-35, but hunting will live for at least another year...
 
Already has had an effect. I 100% changed my 08 plans and it will 100% effect the tags and decisions I make for 2009 and beyond. I will continue to hunt but on a very limited basis compared to past years. Interest never takes a holiday and the house payment will still continue to come each month. The economy is not anywhere close to hitting rock bottom. It is finally time all the scab businesses go away but unfortunately some really good companies will bite the dust as well since they have not saved for a rainy day. For those that have money, 09 could be a banner year to purchase top notch hunts at a discounted rate. I have had four acquaintances come and see me this week that were just layed off. Four totally separate fields and after asking all the questions there is no doubt in my mind they were being overpaid and that is why they were sent packing. Nobody is immune to this economy at some point. I think 2009 will be worse than 2008 and hope 2010 is better. The government bailouts are a bandaid fix in every sense of the word. They are a short term fix only.
 
Guys will still be hunting close to home, but I'm guessing that there will be very noticeable decrease in out of state hunters, and a huge decrease in interest for guided hunts, LO tags, etc...

A lot of the guys I know that hunt several states each year are just going to buy points where available and sit '09 out while hunting in their own home states.

Even a lot of the "money" guys are hurting, and it doesn't look like things are getting better any time soon.

Everybody involved in the industry, including state wildlife agencies, conservation groups, etc. need to get prepared for the next year or two.

Sure hope I'm wrong.
 
>Guys will still be hunting close
>to home, but I'm guessing
>that there will be very
>noticeable decrease in out of
>state hunters, and a huge
>decrease in interest for guided
>hunts, LO tags, etc...
>
>A lot of the guys I
>know that hunt several states
>each year are just going
>to buy points where available
>and sit '09 out while
>hunting in their own home
>states.
>
>Even a lot of the "money"
>guys are hurting, and it
>doesn't look like things are
>getting better any time soon.
>
>
>Everybody involved in the industry, including
>state wildlife agencies, conservation groups,
>etc. need to get prepared
>for the next year or
>two.
>
>Sure hope I'm wrong.


well i think your right
 
Great insight-I thank you all for your comments. I am about to send checks for the 2009 leases. I have choosen not to try a negotiate a different rate. I have had some good years and the ranchers have been good to me. I certainly plan on being flexible on pricing this year, especially if there are groups of folks that would like a particular ranch. I'm looking for ways to cut expenses. I know we can do it. I'm watching the competition carefully. No matter what we want the clients who do use us to have a great time on their NM hunts, even if we have to be more frugal to help them be more frugal. Jim
www.newmexicobiggamehunting.com
 
Bet'cha it will make a difference to the Million-aire home builder sportsmen or the CEO of a Real Estate Agency or the owner of Auto Agency, or subsidaries owners, etc, etc, etc.

Recession or Depression, it is going to hurt everyone and especially those nonessential items of your life, including hunting.

Except for poaching of coarse, from some who cannot feed their families becaue they're unemployed. The bottom may not be here yet, let's hope that better days are ahead.

Men are losing their jobs by the thousands, however women are not (right from the news) and if you think you are going to be spending unemployment check on hunting, while your wife is bringing in the paycheck - think again my friend.
 
I have looked at a few of the Alaska and Canada sheep hunts and their pricing schedules continue. An increase of $1,000 per year forecasted for 2010. Somebody is buying these hunts, but they are not my friends.
 
It is early in the season and I have had the same thoughts myself. I usually buy a voucher in Colorado and have went on a guided trip each of the two last years. As a consumer I was thinking of playing the waiting game with money in hand to see what kind of deals play out toward the end of the spring. I think it will hit all levels of income, not just the poor but all levels rich included. There were more Colorado vouchers available in 08 than in previous years but some of that had to do with winter kill but some of my friends didn't buy because of gas prices. I wouldn't want to be in the outfitting business right now unless I was established with a long list of repeat customers.

Rich
 
I agree with Prism. We did great in 2008 but I think that 2009 could be a whole different ball game. Those of you that think the high dollar guys won't be affected couldn't be more wrong. The upper middle class guys started to feel the pinch in 2008 and the upper end guys didn't. 2009 brings a whole different ball game to town. A lot of these "high dollar guys" lost a ton of money in the stock market as well as when AIG crashed. 2009 will be the year for a slump in the hunting industry as far as non resident hunting and guided hunts are concerned. Last year several states said their NR hunters were down and they contributed that to the fuel prices. I can't imaging that it won't be more significantly affected this year if the economy doesn't rebound soon. I hope I'm wrong.

It's always an adventure!!!
www.awholelottabull.com
 
Howdy,


Well I DO use an outfitter and guide for most of my hunting, but I'm sure not in the multi-thousand buck spender bracket.
I'm going to a DIY hunt in Colorado next year, and save the $ I would have spent for a guided hunt. My plan is to use an outfitter in 2010 again. Hopefully, I can save enough $ to try for elk in Wy.

The outfitter that I use the most is already finding lots of cancellations on his desk.

Hope this helps.

Coach
 
I believe we will see significant downward repricing in many product/service classes, including particularly those of a nonessential/luxury nature.

For example, the market prices of Broadway musical tickets and the rack rates for luxury New York hotels are already collapsing.

I have spoken with a number of African outfitters, and they are all preparing for an extended downturn in demand for safaris, which will lead to a demand for price relief on concession fees, etc.

Demand for high-dollar hunts in North America will be affected as well. Don't believe stories that the "rich" are not changing their spending practices. Many have been hammered severly.

I expect we may have seen the day of the $35k stone sheep hunt and $20k dall sheep hunt pass into oblivion, until the financial markets recover, which could take years.

These conditions will favor the relative strength of those operating on "earned" income, as opposed to "investment" income (for those who can hold onto their job).

I, for one, will welcome a bit of price relief in the high-end market. Perhaps I can squeeze in a few more nice hunts before my run is over.

HornedToad
 
Some great posts, and I pretty much agree with all of them.

I still think think there is a fairly large portion of the western hunting population that really hasn't been hit yet, or doesn't realize the hit they're going to get in the coming months.

States like Utah have faired pretty well when compared to the rest of the country, but we're starting to catch up with reality.

I'm not saying that I'm immune to this, but it continues to amaze me here in the west the amount of debt the average young person/family has-from ATVs, trailers, snowmobiles, trucks, tires, and houses. I think a lot of hunters are going to be lucky to just make payments. Let alone book a hunt in '09.

I believe the average age of the US hunter right now is around 40. An age that demands a lot of income be devoted to family and time devoted to work.
 
second thought, it already has!, I'm a licensed contractor and just the housing crash alone stopped me in my tracks, I wanted to hunt outta state again this year and just couldn't due to the fact that i've only had one job this past summer...

Thank God for my wife's income or I'd be livin in my RV by now.....

the rich have a cusion but that may run out too soon!.......
 
Hopefully things will pick up for the guys in the building trades. The majority of my buddies and family are involved in the construction industry and they're suffering the worst so far.

In certain circumstances I can see a guided hunt not running a whole lot more than a DIY hunt.

With the amount of scouting and time I put into my Utah LE hunt this past season, I'm sure if I added it all up I'd come close to what it would of cost me to go guided, but I would have missed out on a lot of great time on the mountain with friends and family throughout the spring, summer, and fall.

In fact, the amount of money I usually spend on DIY out of state hunts probably comes close to some guided hunts. I guess a lot of it depends on the amount of scouting a guy puts in. I guess I like the scouting almost as much as the hunting itself as I'm sure a lot of you do to.
 
True hunters will always hunt, but alot will have to cut back. I drew a december coues deer tag. This is a tag that I would usually do alot of scouting and take half the month off work. But this year I could only afford one scouting trip and one extra day off work. Its killing me because the hunt started on friday and I can't go untill sunday morning. I will have 5 days to hunt on a 20 day hunt. Hunting may be my passion but I still have to pay my mortgage.
 
This is a good thread. I just returned to home in Wyoming from guiding our last muley hunters in SW Texas. We are already booked full on all of our Wyoming and Texas hunts for 2009 and are close to full for 2010. We did not increase prices for 2009 due to the economic stress.

We've been outfitting for 20+ years and have a solid clientele base. With 100% success on solid bucks and bulls we seem to stay full without a lot of effort. Many of our clients are doctors and their practices will not likely be affected very much. We have a few farmers come routinely, and their business is cyclical, but 08 was a tough year for some because of the increased cost of fuel, fertliizer and inputs.

But I'd say the average hunter will undoubtedly be affected. This has to hurt. I'm actually a little more concerned about Game and Fish revenues than I am my own. Hope the departments can sell enough of those nonresident licenses to keep their efforts at full speed without major increases to those who still buy licenses. And gas prices are down right now, but I am hesitant to guarantee that they'll still be low next November with OPEC already talking about reducing supply.

Lots to wait and see.................
 
JFW,

Things for me personally will not change. I am out of debt. However, I still have a budget that I will stick to. If you need someone to fill a spot for antelope in NM, let me know? I am always interested in NM goat in the right place for the right price.

Many hunts are pricey and even over priced in my eyes. Hopefully there is some correction and that would open up some doors for myself. Not to wish any bad luck on anyone. The hunting industry workers need to make a living like everyone else.

Sure makes a guy wonder what will happen? Never thought I would buy 2.25 deisel again but I do. I hate to scream doom and gloom. Hopefully 2009 is better than 08?
 
Jim
I think it will affect the draws, I'm pretty sure it did this year.Because I drew 6 hunts and was diesel poor, Now diesel is under $2.00 bucks, but the rest of the stuff is still killing alot of folks. I know I wouldn't be able to hunt 6 different places this coming year.
 
I think Brine hit the nail on the head- (outstanding post and insight Brine).

I think many answered your questions in the context of the current economic conditions and it's really just a bitter taste of what the next few years are going to look like.

The base clientel who use outfitter services on a regular basis (the medium rich- millionaire homebuilders, buisiness owners, retired stockholders, upper management types) are being hit as hard or harder than anyone.

The very few of us who are not going to be directly affected by the recession/depression will still be trying to go about our lives and business within it. I think putting meat in the freezer will still be a top priority for most hunters, but paying big money to chase big bucks will not.
 
>I'm not saying that I'm immune
>to this, but it continues
>to amaze me here in
>the west the amount of
>debt the average young person/family
>has-from ATVs, trailers, snowmobiles, trucks,
>tires, and houses. I think
>a lot of hunters are
>going to be lucky to
>just make payments. Let alone
>book a hunt in '09.
>
>
>I believe the average age of
>the US hunter right now
>is around 40. An age
>that demands a lot of
>income be devoted to family
>and time devoted to work.


Prism - I agree completely. I think a lot of the young guns in Utah are living off of their parents coat tails, and maybe its not going to be such a bad thing if a few of them start realizing just what "work" is. One thing is for sure, if you don't have the truck, ATV, etc. you better have really good credit.
 
YES, It affected 2008 already. My company in Michigan has layed off dozens of employees. I'm a little higher up the seniority list but not safe. I don't do very many quided hunts but the price of diesel, job security and rising costs of everything have kept me home in 2008 and probably 2009. I will just apply for more points. I can't wait to get back out west hunting. I hate to make any hunting trip plans and then not have a job etc. I live in Michigan and I am not an auto worker but it still affects everyone. Keep buying foreign autos and it will eventually trickle down to everyone; even the western states. A lot of auto workers used to hunt out west. No auto jobs, no hunting out west. Just my 2 cents worth.
 
This economy is affecting all jobs and all areas of work. Medical field, construction etc. If you are a guide and all booked up until 2010 I would guess that you are one of the lucky ones. I would expect that as 2009 sets in and the reality of the gravity of the economy in realized, guides will see more cancelations, less bookings etc. There is no doubt hunts are way over priced right now, and there will be a significant correction, it is just economics. The big money guys are hurting and if you don't think they are you are living in a dream world, at least any of them that are tied to the stockmarket (all of them) or any of them tied to construction, realestate, airline, ranching, oil, etc. etc. If I were an outfitter I would plan accordingly. Be a head of the game. Use the attitude out there that a lot of guides still have, "It won't affect us, "we are different than the rest". Do better and more affective advertising, drop your prices if you are not booking. If you can stay in business, when this is all said and done, you will be all the better off.

T
 
Some very good replies. I make a pretty good living but the industry I work in is hurting (heavy construction) and I don't know if I will be a casualty later on. It is pretty scary knowing that I can be laid off anytime.

I have been thinking about how my 2009 season will be affected. Right now I am going to lay low and wait to see what happens. For now I am going to plan on hunting in-state unless drawn out of state. I will apply out of state like normal but for now I won't be buying LO tags or go guided.

JR
 
Will hunting stop? No way! However, will most hunters plans change? Definately yes or at least they should. While I love hunting and try and goes as much as possible, with the worsening economic situation, I think it would be irresponsible for hunters to be paying for guided hunts IF they are not part of the elite few who are not drastically effected by the economy. Honestly, is a guided hunt the best way to manage your funds in a time like this? I would dare say if any wives had their way we will all be sitting 2009 and possibly 2010 out. (Pray it doesn't go beyond that) I know for me, I have not been hit yet in the mess BUT I am not foolish enough to think it couldn't happen to me anytime so knowing that, I have to think family and security first before my own wants and beleive me this was going to be my year for Alaska but I just don't see that would be wise so I am going to wait it out like most others.
 
I don't think hunting will slow down much for resident hunters, I do think it will affect the out of state hunters and guided hunts.
Hunting is like anything else in this economy and it will be price driven. I will put in for out of state as always but if I draw it will be self guided. I would rather spend my vacation time in the field instead of spending money in this economy on a guide. I'm a PM for a construction company and we have had a lot of layoffs but hope we can weather out this economy. Me and three buddies went on a 10 day Elk hunt 6-weeks ago and were planning a Alaska hunt for next August. Two of them are now unemployed. So that's out for now. Lets just hope it doesn't take the economy long to turn around. After seeing what they sell those 4th season land owner tags for in Colorado! WOW!!!!!
Next year could be a good year for bargin hunts......
 
The economy is shedding job as fast as an old Lab sheds hair.
Utah lost thousands of jobs last quarter for the first time in many
Years!
Many experts are saying homes prices could take decades to recover.
My Dentist friends have experienced a 40%decline in business.

If I were a guide I would plan on less business no matter who your
clients are.
 
Guys-The economy is having a drastic affect on lots of folks. We have lowered our hunt prices and added incentives and are still not getting near (50-75% off) the traffic we used to at this time of year. I've talked to other outfitters, taxidermists, ranchers, and its a bad news. For you folks out there that are suffering loss of job and pay, our hearts go out to you. Times are tough and getting tougher!!
 
JFWRC- You're wise to be flexible on pricing for the upcoming season. Folks who draw a tag will need to get their hunt in, but may have a lot less disposable income to pay for any extras. You have a fine reputation from all accounts I've read and assume you will work as hard as ever to show your clients a grand time in New Mexico.

Of course the economy is going to affect the hunting community in 2009 and going forward. Two more "bubbles" are in the process
of bursting, the commercial real estate market and default of many consumers holding financial institution credit cards, whether they be individuals, small businesses or corporations.

So much of what many hunters have in the garage,parked in the driveway or locked in the gun vault is tied up in consumer credit be it ATVs, UTVs, RVs, trucks, hunting equipment like high-end optics and pricey "shooting-systems". It is likely a significant percentage of these purchases were not made with cash, more likely most were purchased on VISA-MC-AMEX or similar OEM plastic. That credit is getting strickly curtailed or called and interest rates are climbing as the banks look for more cash to strengthen their crashing bottom lines.

Hunters will still hunt in '09 but I suspect much of it will be DIY activities with a limit on out-of-state hunts. We'll all still buy bonus points/preference points and surely put in for a few affordable hunts in neighboring states. That being said, as an example, my family of four is looking at $1372 in license and tag fees to hunt deer during the general season in southern Utah, if we draw. Of course, that doesn't include any of the associated expenses of traveling to and participating in the hunt. That $1372 may not sound like much to some but our current political leaders are talking stimulus packages that could result in far less than that going to families and it's supposed to be a help in curing our financial ills. Pardon me for saying, "I don't think so!" Our generation has been fixing for a financial wake-up call in this era of easy credit, inflated real estate values and, in some cases, inflated wages and salaries.

Brine's post about the unemployment check not going towards hunting expenses is spot on as which out of work hunter is going to convince their spouse that's the best use of those funds?

Personally, I'm going to hunt plenty in 2009 but it may end up being coyotes, turkey, small game, upland birds, waterfowl and archery deer. I just do not see a pay-to-play hunt in my plans for this year or next.
 

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