Region G odds

ck

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LAST EDITED ON Mar-11-09 AT 09:04AM (MST)[p]Think I could draw a regular nonresident deer license in G with 2 points, or would I need to go for the special license?
 
CK,

With 2 points, the special license should be a slam dunk. That tag has been a guarantee at 1 point for the past 2 years. The regular tag was a guarantee at 2 points last year, but there were 577 guys with you at one point. I would project a 50% or better chance, but not a guarantee yet. Probably next year though.

Good luck,

Jon
www.HuntersTrailhead.com
 
CK-

Jon- I think your numbers are off. Looking over the odds on huntin fool (which matches Wyo G&F), 478 guys had 1 point. The 1 point pool from last year had 93 tags remaining (after everyone 1+ pt drew) for 478 guys. That leaves 385 guys with 1 point remaining after the draw last year. Some could have drawn random too, who knows. So, if everyone applied the same, those 385 1 pt guys would be in the for the 349 tags (91%).

Granted, people swith units, tag quotas will probably continue to go down, but apps were down for WY elk too. Always tricky, but I would say you have a pretty good shot with 2 points on regular Region G. If I were in your shoes, I wouldn't pay the extra, those are great odds to draw it regular.
 
LAST EDITED ON Mar-11-09 AT 03:32PM (MST)[p]HuntElk4Fun,

I do not know how the boys over at Huntin Fool present their data, but what I have done to make things easier to read is combine the 1/2 point levels with the point level below them. You are correct in that there were 478 guys with 1 point. Then there were 99 more with more than 1 point but less than 2. That comes to 577. (Just so you know where my numbers came from).

Lets break the whole thing down.
The 157 guys at the 2 point level all drew. The 99 with more than 1 but less than 2 all drew, and 93 of the 478 guys with 1 point drew. That does leave 385 to come back this year. Assuming that permit numbers stay the same, and all 385 come back and no one comes in with more than 2 points, your calculation would be correct. However, you can count on some applicants to come in with points above 2. How many is anyones guess. Based on 2007 numbers, there should have only been 111 at the 2 point level in 2008 but there were 46 more than that. I would expect there to be a handful of guys come in with 3 points. There will also be some with 2.1 to 2.9 points - All of which will take permits away from the 2 point level.

All that being said, my 50% speculation is probably very conservative. It could end up quite a bit above that, but 50/50 are great odds. I would take that any day! And you are correct - I wouldn't spend the extra dollars on the special permit with those odds.

Jon
www.HuntersTrailhead.com
 
So I guess the question now is - do I go??? Still debating it; by the time I add up all the costs, it adds up pretty good.
 
I hunted G last year real hard. Never found a good buck. I personally am going to buy points and wait a couple years for it to rebound. If you are determined to hunt wyoming, why not put in for one of the limited entry areas and G as your second choice? I wouldn't burn 2 pts on G this year, and no way would I pay the special money!
 
I put in for G this year but I have three points so I expect to draw the regular draw.

I don't think it will be 100% with two points. There will be a lot of people like me with more than two points in the draw. I don't think you can just consider the ones from 2008 that tried for G and didn't draw. There are 7,000 people with 3 points and another almost 7,000 with 2 points, it wouldn't take a lot of these to decide to try G to skew the odds.

If I had two points instead of three I would have put in for the special draw.

This will be my first trip to G and I have read a lot of the negative posts also but I am comitted, I have applied for my license and given the outfitter a deposit and I'm going hunting and I don't look back or second guess my decision. There is always some apprehension when you pay a lot of money for a hunt but there is never going to be any guarantee, it's hunting. Most of my hunts turn out great but occasionally one doesn't. I'm 57 and I am not waiting around for all of the stars to align and everything be perfect. I expect this to be a physically demanding hunt and I need to do these while I can still can.
 
Even in a bad or down year there is some monsters up there your guide just got to find you one, I hunted "H" last year and it was a down year but we had fun, we did what we wanted to do.


"I have found if you go the extra mile it's Never crowded".
 
We drew G with two points last year, full price non res. tag. Didn't connect, but not because I didn't see bucks, saw three that I would have hung my tag on , but it didn't work out , thats hunting. It was my first Wyoming deer tag. I put in for region G first choice, region H second, with no points this year. Also I didn't go with the special tag. Good luck in the draw.
Thanks, Doug.
 
I'm guessing that as people draw out of the top points pool, most of them will switch to stuff you can draw more regularily like G. So points to draw G will go up. Still think 2 should give you a really good shot at G this year. Least that's what I'm hoping.
 
I'm one of those guys with max points & don't plan to apply this year, just pp's. It'll be interesting to see how everyone does this fall.

7 Mag
 

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