henrys draw odds

J

jax71k10

Guest
can someone explain to me how hunt odds.com works?I put in for the henrys with 15 nr 2008 pts.hunt odds site tells me i have a 100% chance of drawing that tag and i just recieved my unsuccessful notice in my email.checked hunters trailhead,same thing 100% WTF? can someone explain? jack
 
Odds don't mean squat. Just because a computer program may say you have a 100% draw, does not make it true.


































"I'll keep my guns, freedom, and money.
You can keep the "change"!"
 
I think Utah reduced the NR Henrys tags from 3 to 1 this year.That would put ALL applicants into the random draw with NO tag for the bonus draw.Having max points wasn't a huge help this year.Utah also gave a NR archery & muzzleloader tag for the Henrys & no max point tag for those either!
David
 
jax71k10

Drnaln has it correct. The odds in the hunt odds database are true statistical odds based on the 2008 application rates.

In 2008 there were 3 total Non-resident permits meaning there was one permit guaranteed to go to the top level. With only one applicant with 15 points, it was a guarantee. However, this year, the total permits dropped to only one. This eliminated the bonus tag for the top level.

If there had been 2 tags this year, and assuming that you were the only non-resident with 15 points, it would have been a guarantee.

You got screwed by the reduction in permits. What I don't understand is why?? The resident permits remained stable at 21 while the non-resident dropped from 3 to 1. I though that there was supposed to be a 10% allocation to the non-res. They should have been given at least 2. Where did the others go???

That really sucks!!

Jon
www.HuntersTrailhead.com
 
Odds change from year to year. Applicants numbers change, points only guys jump in, tag #'s change. Last year's # are just a good guess....
 
Last years numbers are a good start but the reduction of permits is what changed the draw.If a hunt has 2 permits,1 WILL go to the highest point holder.The Henrys still have 3 NR permits but in 3 DIFFERENT weapon choices so the high point holders don't have much of an advantage in the draw.I have 14 points,15 for next year,& will probebly give up on the Henrys archery hunt!
David
 
The odds programs usually are based upon the year before. If you currently have 15 points, you would have only had 14 going into the 2008 draw. I don't know if that fits into how you were calculating it but most people forget to take that into account.
 
LAST EDITED ON Apr-28-09 AT 08:46PM (MST)[p]

If they did indeed lower permits from 3 to 1, that explains it. If not, Hillbilly nails it. You had 14 points last year, not 15 and, so you can't go on those odds. How many other people had 14 with you last year that now have 15?

Last years odds are just a guideline, they don't tell you for sure what will happen this year.

Couldn't find the preference point info for '08, but here it is for '07:

http://wildlife.utah.gov/hunting/biggame/pdf/07_stats/01.pdf

You would have had 13 points in '07 along with 34 other people. Some of those would have drawn by now, but probably not all

Bottom line is that you are very close to drawing a good tag, but don't count your chickens.......

With 4 deer and 5 elk points after this draw, I have given up any hope of getting into the max pool in my lifetime. Just hope my number comes up someday.

txhunter58

venor, ergo sum (I hunt, therefore I am)
 
I just received a call from a guy from flagstaff arizona. He got my number from huntin fool.I was drawn for the Henrys last year. He was the nonresident who got drawn this year and was looking for information.He was drawn with 11 points.
 
so bigbuckkiller lets see a picture of the buck you shot!
same with the rest of the ones that drew this tag


Archery is a year round commitment!!
 
You can have 15 pts and 20 other guys can have 15 pts and you still wouldn't draw the tag until you do.If you're lucky you will be at the head of the bunch if you're unlucky you will be number 21 to draw that tag in about 20 years or so.


"I have found if you go the extra mile it's Never crowded".
 

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