regularjoe
Active Member
- Messages
- 109
Just curious what the opinions are and why. If you had over 10 points for deer what are the top five areas you would consider putting in for (LE and CWMU)?
Opinion: Top spots for muleys?
- Thread starter regularjoe
- Start date
legacy
Very Active Member
- Messages
- 2,067
LAST EDITED ON Sep-16-09 AT 09:37AM (MST)[p]1) Henries
2) Henries
3) Henries
4) Henries
5) Henries
If you have 10 years invested thus far, why not hold out for the best unit in the country? You would still have a few years to go, but in my opinion, it would be worth it. There are a few really good CWMU's (maybe someone with some CWMU experience can elaborate), but I don't know if ANY of them are worth burning 10+ points. They always kill some big deer on Alton. I have 7 points now, and once I hit 10 points, I may consider swithing to the Henries.
2) Henries
3) Henries
4) Henries
5) Henries
If you have 10 years invested thus far, why not hold out for the best unit in the country? You would still have a few years to go, but in my opinion, it would be worth it. There are a few really good CWMU's (maybe someone with some CWMU experience can elaborate), but I don't know if ANY of them are worth burning 10+ points. They always kill some big deer on Alton. I have 7 points now, and once I hit 10 points, I may consider swithing to the Henries.
regularjoe
Active Member
- Messages
- 109
Sorry. Utah
A
apollosmith
Guest
I'd have to say Henries also. But for a rifle hunt, you're still at least 6 or 7 years out. You needed 12 points 2 years ago, 13 points last year, and 14 points this year. If that holds up, you'll NEVER draw a tag. 
You could probably draw archery or muzzie in the next couple years.
You could probably draw archery or muzzie in the next couple years.
backinthegame
Active Member
- Messages
- 754
Assuming you'll have 10 points this coming year...putting in for the Henry Mountains.
You've got 355 guys ahead of you, plus another 224 in your same point group.
Currently, you've got 10 guaranteed tags for max points guys, plus another 11 "regular" tags. 21 total.
So...10 of the guys ahead of you are guaranteed to be weeded out each year. Not bad...you'll only have to wait 36 YEARS for all those guys to be gone.
Now some of those regular tags will go to them too...last year exactly 2 of them left via regular tags. So we'll say they'll all be gone in 35 years instead of 36.
Ok, so now 35 years down the road you've gotten rid of all the guys ahead of you...now you just gotta worry about the ones in your same point pool. All 224 of 'em. Another 10 leaving each year to the guaranteed tags. 23 YEARS and they're gone, it's your turn!!
And only 59 YEARS FROM NOW!!! Wow!!!
Of course you could be one of the first in your pool of 224 guys to draw...so you might get it as soon as 40 years or so. That's not so bad.
Or you might get lucky and draw it next year...ha, ha. Pretty good odds, eh? Lots of guys think because it took 13 or 14 points to draw this year they're getting close with 10. Unfortunately, NOT EVEN CLOSE.
Sucks.
You've got 355 guys ahead of you, plus another 224 in your same point group.
Currently, you've got 10 guaranteed tags for max points guys, plus another 11 "regular" tags. 21 total.
So...10 of the guys ahead of you are guaranteed to be weeded out each year. Not bad...you'll only have to wait 36 YEARS for all those guys to be gone.
Now some of those regular tags will go to them too...last year exactly 2 of them left via regular tags. So we'll say they'll all be gone in 35 years instead of 36.
Ok, so now 35 years down the road you've gotten rid of all the guys ahead of you...now you just gotta worry about the ones in your same point pool. All 224 of 'em. Another 10 leaving each year to the guaranteed tags. 23 YEARS and they're gone, it's your turn!!
And only 59 YEARS FROM NOW!!! Wow!!!
Of course you could be one of the first in your pool of 224 guys to draw...so you might get it as soon as 40 years or so. That's not so bad.
Or you might get lucky and draw it next year...ha, ha. Pretty good odds, eh? Lots of guys think because it took 13 or 14 points to draw this year they're getting close with 10. Unfortunately, NOT EVEN CLOSE.
Sucks.
I agree with you. I had 7 deer points a few years ago and burned them on the Book Cliffs. Wasn't too interested in taking the next 30 years waiting to draw the Henries. Ended up shooting a nice 30 inch buck in the Book Cliffs, nothing like a Henries monster, but still a great buck.
So many things in life are determined by timing. Those guys that had 11/12 points when the Henries tags were opened up should thank their lucky stars that it happened when it did. The whole system worked out just perfect form them. Not so much for the rest of us.
So many things in life are determined by timing. Those guys that had 11/12 points when the Henries tags were opened up should thank their lucky stars that it happened when it did. The whole system worked out just perfect form them. Not so much for the rest of us.
regularjoe
Active Member
- Messages
- 109
Sounds like there are a lot of Henries fans out there. Does someone have a differing opinion?
backinthegame
Active Member
- Messages
- 754
And inline with my previous post...here are your odds going into next year with 10 points for those "easy" to draw Archery and Muzzleloader tags:
Archery:
14 guys ahead of you...10 in your same point group.
3 guaranteed tags each year, with 3 more regular tags. 6 total.
So you've got 3 guys guaranteed to leave each year, 5 years to get rid of them. Then we'll be generous and say it'll only take 3 to get rid of the rest of the guys in your same point group.
You'll have your archery tag in only 8 more years. Not terrible...but definitely more than a couple. You're halfway home!
Muzzleloader:
82 guys ahead of you, 36 more in your same point group.
3 guaranteed tags, 3 regular tags. 6 total.
3 out of those 82 are guaranteed gone each year, plus the odd one to a regular tag, that's 27 years. It'll take another 12 to get rid of the guys in your point pool.
You'll have your muzzleloader tag in only 39 more years. Nice!
Now of course these numbers as well as the ones in my first post about the rifle tag are based on "worse-case" scenario, right the the point when you're GUARANTEED to draw. So they could be SLIGHTLY sooner. But "best case" isn't much better than "worst case", seriously. Not only that, but this doesn't account for cuts in tags or new guys with lots of points (like legacy...) jumping in front of you.
I'd find another unit and go kill yourself a nice buck! ;-)
Archery:
14 guys ahead of you...10 in your same point group.
3 guaranteed tags each year, with 3 more regular tags. 6 total.
So you've got 3 guys guaranteed to leave each year, 5 years to get rid of them. Then we'll be generous and say it'll only take 3 to get rid of the rest of the guys in your same point group.
You'll have your archery tag in only 8 more years. Not terrible...but definitely more than a couple. You're halfway home!
Muzzleloader:
82 guys ahead of you, 36 more in your same point group.
3 guaranteed tags, 3 regular tags. 6 total.
3 out of those 82 are guaranteed gone each year, plus the odd one to a regular tag, that's 27 years. It'll take another 12 to get rid of the guys in your point pool.
You'll have your muzzleloader tag in only 39 more years. Nice!
Now of course these numbers as well as the ones in my first post about the rifle tag are based on "worse-case" scenario, right the the point when you're GUARANTEED to draw. So they could be SLIGHTLY sooner. But "best case" isn't much better than "worst case", seriously. Not only that, but this doesn't account for cuts in tags or new guys with lots of points (like legacy...
) jumping in front of you.I'd find another unit and go kill yourself a nice buck! ;-)
M
muledeershedsrock
Guest
I would go with the paunsagaunt because you can kill a great buck during any hunt.
I
ICHABOD
Guest
I wouldnt overlook San Juan with an archery tag...
------------------------------------------------------
"Yeah, I'll shoot him"
------------------------------------------------------
"Yeah, I'll shoot him"
hornkiller
Long Time Member
- Messages
- 4,209
my 2 cents in any draw unit there are 200 inch bucks some might be harder to kill but some units hold more but there out there i wouldnt wait for the henries you could be another ten years
Daxter
Very Active Member
- Messages
- 1,425
backinthegame,
I like your calculations, but you need ages of the applicants and an actuarial table so we can determine how many will die of old age before they draw, that might bump up the chances of drawing a Henry Mtn. deer tag a couple more years. I am counting on cancer to help me draw a sheep and LE elk tag in Utah some day. Pretty sick eh?
Dax
I like your calculations, but you need ages of the applicants and an actuarial table so we can determine how many will die of old age before they draw, that might bump up the chances of drawing a Henry Mtn. deer tag a couple more years. I am counting on cancer to help me draw a sheep and LE elk tag in Utah some day. Pretty sick eh?
Dax
backinthegame
Active Member
- Messages
- 754
>backinthegame,
>
>I like your calculations, but you
>need ages of the applicants
>and an actuarial table so
>we can determine how many
>will die of old age
>before they draw, that might
>bump up the chances of
>drawing a Henry Mtn. deer
>tag a couple more years.
> I am counting on
>cancer to help me draw
>a sheep and LE elk
>tag in Utah some day.
> Pretty sick eh?
>
>Dax
Ha, ha, ha...not as sick as the fact that plenty of guys really won't live to see the day that they draw a tag!!
I'll work on that actuarial table for ya...;-)
>
>I like your calculations, but you
>need ages of the applicants
>and an actuarial table so
>we can determine how many
>will die of old age
>before they draw, that might
>bump up the chances of
>drawing a Henry Mtn. deer
>tag a couple more years.
> I am counting on
>cancer to help me draw
>a sheep and LE elk
>tag in Utah some day.
> Pretty sick eh?
>
>Dax
Ha, ha, ha...not as sick as the fact that plenty of guys really won't live to see the day that they draw a tag!!
I'll work on that actuarial table for ya...;-)
AndymanSavage
Very Active Member
- Messages
- 2,724
backinthegame,
man, do you go on little kid forums and tell them that there is no Santa?
haha, the truth hurts....
-----------------------------------------------
http://andymansavage.blogspot.com/
man, do you go on little kid forums and tell them that there is no Santa?
haha, the truth hurts....
-----------------------------------------------
http://andymansavage.blogspot.com/
B
BoneJunkie
Guest
Henries is the best, but the sad truth is that with 10 points it would take an act of congress or a miracle to pull that tag in the next 10 years.
pauns08
Active Member
- Messages
- 712
You could listen to all these guys that drool over the henrys and wait another god knows how long for that tag, or you could put in for the paunsaugunt archery and guarantee yourself a tag next year and go down and shoot a 200 inch buck from the road. THE HELL WITH THE HENRIES, it aint that much better of a unit than some of the other units in the state that your guaranteed to draw with 10 points.
