LAST EDITED ON Feb-28-10 AT 12:41PM (MST)[p]LAST EDITED ON Feb-28-10 AT 12:39?PM (MST)
Dax,
I am not giving figures for drawing a particular tag, just the odds of drawing at least one tag with multiple INDEPENDENT attemps.
If I want 1 heads in a "flip sequence" and I only use 1 coin, I have a 50% shot, but each additional coin I add to the sequence (at 50% odds) increases my overall odds of getting at least one heads on my next sequence.
Think of it this way...If I flip 5 coins simultaneously, each individual coin has a 50% chance of being heads, but I only want AT LEAST ONE to be heads, the odds aren't 50%. They are 97% (using my method) that one of the coins, out of five, will be heads in any sequence. GO TRY IT! And each additional coin I add to the sequence increases my odds of AT LEAST ONE heads.
Now to apply it to hunting... if you put in for 5 tags that have 20% odds on each, that doesn't mean you have a 100% chance, or a 20% chance, of drawing a tag...but it does mean that you have a 67.3% of drawing one tag. In a general sense, it means that if you put in for those same tags 100 years in a row, statistically you would go hunting 67 out of 100 years.
Grizzly