Figuring out draw odds?

[lostinOregon]

This is a question for you guys that didn't fail math. Some time ago there was a post that had to do with combining draw odds in a math formula (I couldn't find it). It would allow you to find the drawing odds of combining hunt draw odds, like a 10% and a 30% chance of drawing and coming up with the real odds. I am hoping someone who knows how to do the math on this posts it again. It is that time of year and I have nothing to do but what and hope with my fingers crossed.

Thanks

Rich

 

[swbuckmaster]

not sure what you are trying to get at but look on this link and you will find your odds

http://huntodds.monstermuleys.com/

Nets are for fish!!

 

[grizzly]

Okay here you go...

Say you put in for 3 hunts with odds of 12%, 24%, 17%.

You can't just add the 3 numbers together to get your odds of drawing at least 1 tag, here is how you do it.

First you subtract each percentage from 1. You get .88, .76, and .83.

Then multiply those numbers by each other and you get .5551.

Now you subtract that number from 1 (1-.5551=.4449)

Your odds of drawing one tag is 44.49%.

Grizzly

 

[lostinOregon]

Thanks Grizz, that is what I needed,

Rich

 

[Daxter]

I doesn't work like that. Each draw is independent of all the other ones. You can't figure a cumulative drawing odd because each draw is totally independent of the others. Think of it like this, if you fairly flip a coin 5 times and it lands on tails every time that doesn't increase the likelyhood that the 6th flip will be heads. The coin doesn't care what side it landed on last time, the odds of landing heads is still 50% no matter how many times it landed on tails in previous flips. Each flip is independent, as is each hunt drawing you put in for.

Dax

 

[COSA]

I'm certainly no math wizard, but I think odds would figure like this:

Say you put in for deer, elk, and antelope with odds of 60%, 25%, and 40%. Odds are you would draw 1.25 tags, you could draw 3, and you could draw none.

Now if you wanted to know your chance of drawing a certain tag with say 25% odds over a time period (3 years)I believe it would be 1-((1-.25)(1-.25)(1-.25)) or 60%.

 

[grizzly]

LAST EDITED ON Feb-28-10 AT 12:41PM (MST)[p]LAST EDITED ON Feb-28-10 AT 12:39?PM (MST)

Dax,

I am not giving figures for drawing a particular tag, just the odds of drawing at least one tag with multiple INDEPENDENT attemps.

If I want 1 heads in a "flip sequence" and I only use 1 coin, I have a 50% shot, but each additional coin I add to the sequence (at 50% odds) increases my overall odds of getting at least one heads on my next sequence.

Think of it this way...If I flip 5 coins simultaneously, each individual coin has a 50% chance of being heads, but I only want AT LEAST ONE to be heads, the odds aren't 50%. They are 97% (using my method) that one of the coins, out of five, will be heads in any sequence. GO TRY IT! And each additional coin I add to the sequence increases my odds of AT LEAST ONE heads.

Now to apply it to hunting... if you put in for 5 tags that have 20% odds on each, that doesn't mean you have a 100% chance, or a 20% chance, of drawing a tag...but it does mean that you have a 67.3% of drawing one tag. In a general sense, it means that if you put in for those same tags 100 years in a row, statistically you would go hunting 67 out of 100 years.

Grizzly

 

[maxxbob1]

Grizzly is right, according to my math-whiz engineer friends. However, he explains it better than they do.
-- Bob

 

[Daxter]

I guess I understand the statistical reasoning that if I put in for lots of hunts I stand a higher chance of beating the odds and drawing one of them.

However, I still think it can be misleading. I have a friend that puts in for an elk hunt in ID every year that has about a 15% draw odds. He has put in for 15 years and has still never drawn. Statistically he ought to have drawn twice in that 15 year period, but the draw doesn't take into account how many years you have been applying, it is random every time. When he puts in again this year his chances of drawing will still be 15%. If I put in for hard to draw tags in multiple states when they do the drawings for those tags they don't take into consideration what other states I have put in for. Each draw is independent and the chances of drawing that tag are independent.

I do understand the reasoning that applying for multiple tags increases the chances that you get lucky on one. However, this calculating cumulative odds of drawing a tag is a hard one for me to wrap my brain around.

Dax

 

[Iowan]

Grizzly's math just made my day - I have an 11% chance of drawing a tag in Utah for one of the six species I applied for - it is actually much better than I would have estimated. Based on what I have or will be applying for in all the states I gamble in I have a 73% chance of drawing something and I put in for pretty tough to draw units - my points are starting to make a difference.

 

[grizzly]

It is sad, but I probably spend more time going over odds spreadsheets than I do hunting each year.

It really helps to know cumulative odds so that you can adjust your applications accordingly.

I hope others get use out of it too.

Grizzly

 

[rmanwill]

Thanks Grizz and Rich best of luck. I have a feeling you will come out alright in the draw this year!!!

 

[lostinOregon]

Rick,

The odds don't look good even with Grizz's math,

Rich

 

[grizzly]

Rich, now you know the odds, you can add an "opportunity" type tag to your list to up the odds. Better than staying home.

Grizzly

 

[Wiszard]

Grizz- What are the odds that this plick draws MY tag? HaHa

Steve

I gotto go find 5 quarters....

 

[woodruffhunter]

Chance has no memory....

I thought I was bad about studying odds; I do not feel so bad now.

 

[El_Matador]

>Now to apply it to hunting...
>if you put in for
>5 tags that have 20%
>odds on each, that doesn't
>mean you have a 100%
>chance, or a 20% chance,
>of drawing a tag...but it
>does mean that you have
>a 67.3% of drawing one
>tag. In a general
>sense, it means that if
>you put in for those
>same tags 100 years in
>a row, statistically you would
>go hunting 67 out of
>100 years.
>
>Grizzly

You've got it right, but just to clarify something: You will draw AT LEAST one tag 67.3% of the time. You will draw EXACTLY one tag 40.1% of the time. So that other 27.2% you are drawing more than one tag. You should draw 100 tags in 100 years with the odds you gave, but the number of tags you get each year will vary from 0-5.

Now, if only they gave bonus points for knowing the odds

 

[lostinOregon]

Grizz,

that was last year when I had two hunts that I considered opportunity, my montana hunt and an oregon deer hunt. Had very good odds on both, didn't get either one. I didn't put in for other hunts because I figured that I would get one, probably both. I just don't want to be sitting around this fall so I crunch the numbers daily. This numbers thing has become an obsession. There is something to be said about some people having the touch, my fingers are crossed,

Rich