Idaho Draw Odds Available!!!

[Founder]

[font color=darkred size=4]Updated Draw Odds!!![/font]

I just wanted to post this note letting you all know that our draw odds for Idaho have been updated to reflect 2009 apps. So, you can now dive in and start trying to figure which hunt to apply for in 2010.
Here's the link:
http://huntodds.monstermuleys.com/

Thanks,

Brian Latturner
MonsterMuleys.com

 

[grizzly]

I really appreciate these numbers. It is the best site on the net for true odds.

But I think the odds on Idaho are incorrect.

Here's where I think the numbers went off. Idaho does not have tags set aside for NR, they allow "up to 10%". All NR have equal odds as residents until the 10% cap is met, after which NR have 0% chance of drawing a tag. Theoretically, it is possible that all tags go to residents, with no NR tags for a particular unit. The NR odds assume that, like Utah, NR only compete with other NR, here are some examples.

Look at unit 52A Muzzleloader - it is listed as 58.3% success for nonresidents, which is 7 tags divided by the 12 NR applicants. NR were competing with all applicants, 90, for those 7 tags, so odds are really 7.8% for NR.

For another example, look at Unit 70 - it is listed as 15.7% success for nonresidents, which is 18 tags divided by the 114 NR applicants (NR tags were really capped at 17 tags). True odds were 17 NR competing with all 1st choice applicants, Residents and NR combined, which is 798. So NR odds were 2.1%. After those 17 tags were assigned, NR odds were 0%.

I'm pretty sure these numbers are correct, but I could be wrong.

Grizzly

 

[shelbys]

Good point Grizzly. I've always laughed when the hunting magazines state Non-Resident odds for Idaho separately as well. They usually look at the Non-Res pool as a totally different groups of applicants, which it actually isn't at all. Just has the 10% max as you stated above.

 

[JDC]

Grizzly,

First off, thank you for the positive comments about these odds being the best on the net. I work very hard to provide accurate and complete information.

Secondly, I need to explain how these numbers are derived. The 10% cap (not guarantee) is taken into consideration when calculating these odds. In many cases, the resident and non-resident odds are going to be very close if not exactly the same. However, when there is a probability that the non-resident cap will be exceeded the non-resident odds begin to diverge from the resident odds. Take for example unit 40-1. The resident odds are 5.5% and the non-resident odds are 4.9%. That is not a big difference, but there were enough non-resident applicants that statistically it was possible that the 19 tag cap could have been exceeded. This same divergence exists on any unit where it was possible for the non-resident cap to be exceeded. Units 54 and 55 are a couple more examples. With this in mind, the non-resident odds will never be higher than the possible non-resident permits divided by the total non-resident applicants.

Now on the flip side, and your examples fit into this category. When there are just a few more resident applicants than available permits, meeting the 10% non-resident cap becomes more likely and it gets closer to a guarantee the more non-resident applicants there are. Let's use your example of unit 52A. This hunt offered 75 total permits and there were only 78 resident applicants. Now with 12 non-resident applicants the probability of meeting the non-resident cap becomes almost a guarantee. That is why the non-resident odds are showing the results of 7 divided by 12 or 58.3%. Bottom line is that the non-resident does not always have as good of odds as the resident, but in some cases they will be guaranteed to draw their 10% allotment.

I hope that this is understandable. Good luck to everyone in this years drawings.

Jon
www.HuntersTrailhead.com

 

[COSA]

I too really like and appreciate the odds web page. But I'm also wondering if some of the ID odds are somewhat misleading. Take non resident Mtn Goat for example. The odds listed range from 4.3% to 33% for nonresidents for the different units. The actual odds are closer to 2.3% since nonresidents are only allocated up to 10% or 4 tags, and their were 173 non resident applicants. Depending on what unit someone lists the 2.3% number may vary slightly, but that's way beyond my math skills.

 

[grizzly]

JDC, thanks for the response and all the hard work you put into these odds.

It took me some number crunching, but I get where you are coming from. Like I said, you have the best numbers anywhere and we do appreciate it.

Grizzly

 

[grizzly]

JDC, when you get a few minutes would you mind helping me understand Mtn. Goat. Unit 67, for example, has NR odds listed at 4.3%. There were 4 total tags and 125 applicants. That is at best 3.2%, by my math. (4/125=.032)

I see one possible NR tag and 125 applicants which is .8%.

If the odds were 4.3%, and there were 53 applicants, in an average year NR would draw two tags, but it is only possible for NR to draw one tag. That is where I'm confused.

But, like we have found before, I could be wrong.

Grizzly

 

[JDC]

Grizzly,

The reason the non-resident goat odds seemed out of wack is because they were. I had erroneously uploaded the resident odds over the top of the non-resident. What you were seeing on the non-resident side was actually the resident odds. I have gone back through and corrected this error and verified that this was the only instance. All other species were found to be correct.

Thank you for bringing this to my attention and I apologize for the mistake. This time you were correct!!! Well done.

Jon
www.HuntersTrailhead.com

 

[JDC]

COSA,

As you are obviously aware, when it comes to mtn goats (and sheep), since there are seldom more than 10 permits on any given unit, the non-residents are limited to 10% of the entire tag pool (all units combined). In 2009, this was 4 total tags. In this instance, if there is only 1 tag available on a given unit, a non-resident could draw it if the overall 10% cap has not been met. Since the non-residents could draw a tag on any unit, I have to calculate the odds based on the applicants for each particular unit.

I have considered calculating the odds based on where the non-resident tags were actually awarded, but it would show 0% on all the other units where a tag was no awarded. This is inaccurate as there was a chance to draw, it just didn't happen.

The last way I considered running the non-resident odds was to just divide the 4 potential non-resident tags by the total number of non-resident applicants in all hunts as you have in your example. This is also inaccurate as it assumes that the non-residents are going to actually get all 4 tags - and that is where this whole discussion started.

33% does seem to be way too high for a non-resident goat permit, but based on the applicants for that unit, a total of 6 with one non-resident, that is what the odds calculate out to.

This may be a bit misleading, but I think that it is the best and most accurate way to present the odds.

I welcome your feedback,

Jon
www.HuntersTrailhead.com

 

[grizzly]

JDC, the more we discuss this the more evident it is that you do a ton of work to get us the best odds available.

We really appreciate it, I am constantly referring my hunting buddies to this site to check odds.

Grizzly