New Mexico's Draw Odds

JFWRC

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1,132
New Mexico's draw is pretty unique in that it is about as pure of lottery as it gets in that a random number is assigned to an app at the beginning of draw. The lower the random number assignment, the better your odds of 1)getting a tag and 2)getting one of your first or second choices. Should your random number be at the back of the pack, you BEST have a choice, e.g. your third choice, that has decent odds of having a tag to hunt elk in NM. If you don't care whether you draw or not, go for all low odds choices hoping you get a low random number. If you do want to hunt deer in NM, have a decent (25% or better)odd choice as number 3.

We counsel many folks on NM hunting. We know the units, we know the densities, we study success rates, we know the topography, we talk to the biologist, we talk to the district game and fish officers, we talk to guides, and we talk to both non-residents and residents Better than that we've hunted in most all of the state.

Its mind blowing to me on how many folks believe HF as the Gospel. I get so many calls from individuals that say well HF says this and that. I'm here to tell you that all is not perfect in this world and their gospel is a guide, not fact. I am glad they do not mention a couple of units that we know are better than what they report or completely left out. They sell memberships and they are good at it. I'm glad they are successful, that's what America is all about.

As an example, their issue says its ok for NR's and Residents to apply on the same app. That is correct. What it doesn't go on to say is what happens when there is not a tag for the NR in their pool and there is a tag in the Res pool. Well, its simple, the app gets tossed. It works vice versa. If there is not a tag in that pool for that applicant, the whole app is wasted.

It does not talk about how having a 3-4 group app is affected by the number of tags available. I've talked to a group that have applied for the Sargent 1st choice for several years. There is no way they can win on that choice, not enough tags, wasted choice.

We talk to folks who put a high odd choices 1st and low odd choices second and third. If the tag is available for their first choice, the second and third are wasted. That's Ok if they clearly know what they are doing.

As as the draw odds are concerned, I hope you will use Brain's MM link. Are there issues that can't be explained from a statistical standpoint, yes!. The random number is pretty much impossible to predict. However, this method when employed in a best (low odd), next best (sl better than low odd), and I really want to go app (decent odds) format will in my opinion get your closest to the right chances of drawing.

Randy Newberg, with On Your Own Adventures uses the same method, and believe me, Randy does his homework!

Thank you for reading this far. It was good therapy for me

Jimbo
 
I get HF and its very useful in the info it contains, but, researching on my own pays its own dividends. Also, not taking there first choice is sometimes a blessing. Eastsman's has a hunter reseach area in the back of there mags that have some usefullness and doesn't follow HF. We have to just take this info and apply it as needed. It does ruin some odds.
 

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