2011 UTAH Draw odds

BearCat

Active Member
Messages
751
I have heard that there are PROJECTED 2011 UTAH Draw odds out on the web. All I can find is ones that you have to pay a membership to get the information.

Does anyone know where I can find the information for free? I have the 2010 but looking to see what might be expected for next year.

Thanks in advance.

BearCat
 
Are you kidding!!!!!???? Every page of this website has TWO links at the top to the draw odds. Look up, about 5 inches.
"Hunt Draw Odds" and "Check Your Draw Odds...Click Here"
Both will give you your draw odds.

Brian Latturner
MonsterMuleys.com
 
Brian I did look here first of course!!!

But I believe these are the 2010 odds, and not was is PROJECTED to be 2011 odds, or at least that is what I was told by a gentleman at Hunting Trailheads.

I am I wrong?

Just trying to see what my odds for the Henrys is.

BearCat
 
I guess I was looking for PROJECTED 2011 odds as these are the results of the 2010 draw. maybe I am missing something--would not be the first time.

Thanks PleaseDear!
 
"Projected"??? I don't know of anything that projects what your odds will be this year. The best indication you have for this coming year is last years odds (2010). I believe all you can do is look at last years odds and see how you would have faired last year.

To be guaranteed a tag for the rifle hunt this year, you will need to be sitting on 16 points. A few guys (about 8 out of approx. 60) with 15 will draw. And then 11 people will draw in the random. I don't even have to tell you the odds there. Very tough. 11 out of about 5000 last year and it'll increase this year by a few hundred.

The management tag will most likely take 10 points this year with some drawing with 9. Plus 9 random tags for about 500 apps.

The archery tag will most likely take 13 points, with some drawing with 12. 4 random tags for about 500 apps.

The muzzleloader tag will most likely take 15. I wouldn't plan on any going to folks with 14. 4 random tags for about 700 apps.

Brian Latturner
MonsterMuleys.com
 
It is impossible to even attempt an accurate "projection" without knowing how many tags will be available, which no one does. Like Founder said, last year's odds are the closest indicator we have.
 
you also cant predict the future because you don't know who is putting if for what.

4a7d1f93337c7fd7.jpg


The harder you work the luckier you get!!
 
I think hunterstrailhead.com has projected odds, but you have to pay to get that info. You can figure roughly by saying that the number of people who put in the highest amount of points last year has decreased by the number of "bonus" tags. If nobody else put in with those points the number would remain the same (the number that put in last year with the highest points, minus those that drew (bonus) tags).

Another thing I have done is figure out what the percentage change in number of applicants have been the last couple of years. For example they may only give 10 tags for 100 applicants, but the next year maybe only 50 people will apply for those 10 tags, so sometimes it goes up pretty quickly if you figure how the percentages of applicants change.

Sorry, I'm not a geek, I just spend a lot of time looking at draw odds and trying to figure out how long I'm going to have to wait to hunt my coveted area. Sometimes that happens on the night shift.

Layemdown

"Vegetables are not food, vegetables are what food eats!!"
 
Projected would have to incorporate speculated tag numbers and applicant numbers pretty much based off of historical tag numbers and historical applicants......so they would have to come from the draw odds already available.

Make sense?

Robb
 
Thanks guys as this information is all useful.

I had known about most of this, but when I contacted Hunters TrailHead, they mentioned that they do a 2011 Projected draw odds and that they have a 91% success rate!!

This kind of threw me for a loop and thus that is what started this thread. I was not sure if any of you guys had paid the special fee ($50) and got useful information.

anyway thanks to everyone for jumping in as like many of you I am just trying to get a head start on things. Still not quite finished with this years hunts as we have a couple of elk to still get.

Thanks again.
BearCat
 
We are in the same sinking boat BC.....any reliable help is good help for sure....on basically Once In A Lifetime tags----unless you can drop the big $$$$ at some Con Org banquet.

Save your $$$ and Project your own 2011 'odds' from the free resources available -----DWR site....

Outside the box thought here----Touchbase with 'father of three' as J-Dog has one hell of an info/intel sheet on drawing perspective since the get-go in '97---I believe it is.....just in case you do not have the Hard Copies of the Draw Odds since then.

Robb
 
Hunterstrailhead.com is your best bet but it does cost money to become a member but well worth it.
 
Just a hefty math problem calculated from last years odds and assuming that no newbys put in (i.e. switch from other hunts or people who have just been accumulating points)

txhunter58

venor, ergo sum (I hunt, therefore I am)
 
....for the henries? I'll tell you your odds for free, slim and slimmer!



"...I got a shotgun, rifle, and a 4 wheel
drive, and a country boy can survive..."

Hank Williams Jr.
 

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