hunt draw odds

Cali4x4

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751
A little dissapointes again this year looking at the draw odds for an area in Colorado.

Can anyone explain why CDOW has a lower PP required to draw listed when comparing it to the link on this site for draw odds?

If you break down all the numbers on the CDOW site providing statistics it would appear that Monster Muleys "hunt Draw Odds " is correct. Why does CDOW list one point less needed?
 
The CDOW PP list shows the number of points held by the lowest point holder that drew. For example, if 1 person drew with 0 points, the state's list would show 0 points required for that hunt, even though everyone else had 1 point or more to draw. I think that's what your asking anyway.
 
That is what you would think.
CDOW numbers don't add up.
I thought maybe with averaging points in a party application could skew the lowest PP needed to draw. But CO uses the PP of the lowest member in the party as the figure for PP of the party, not an average.
 
I'm not prefectly clear on what you are asking, but I'm thinking that you could be looking at Non-Resident Odds thinking we get 40% (or maybe it's 35% now), when in fact, we only get "Up To" that percentage (that could mean 0%+). So, if you're calculating tag numbers on your own and using 35% or 40% as your basis, that could be your problem.
For example, if a unit has 100 tags and 100 residents apply with 5 points and all the non-residents in the draw only have 4 points, all the tags would go to the 100 residents iwth 5 points. You see what I mean?
I just looked at one hunt and it appearred that a non-resident should be able to draw with 1 point, the problem is, there are lots of residents in the draw with 2-3 points, and they will draw the tags before the non-residents with less points.
There are no set aside tags for nonresidents. We can just draw "up to" 35% or 40%.

I can't remember offhand what the not resident number is. I know it's less for some hunts also. So.....

Brian Latturner
MonsterMuleys.com
 
The odds are wrong on a couple units in nv also. The odds on this site have them giving olmost double the tags than they really gave as of last year. Really dissapionted!
 
Cali
I think the draw odds on this website are generated directly off the figures on the CDOW "statistics" page. I could be wrong here, but I don't believe that you can make a direct correlation. Here is why I think there is some slight variation.

I think the CDOW statistics page lists preference points that each "individual" has. However, if they apply as a group they get entered into the draw at the lowest number of any individual in the group.

For example if someone with 6 points applies with someone with 0 points for a unit that takes about 2 points to draw, then they will not draw because they would only have 0 points in the draw. However by looking at the stats only, you would assume that the person listed with 6 points drew a tag. This happened to me one year when I drew a tag with only three points. By looking at the numbers in the stats page, I should never have drawn that tag because there were slightly more people with 4 or more points than there were tags sold. I assumed that some of those people with 4 or more points were applying as a group with someone with 3 or fewer points. However, when I looked at the "minimum points needed to draw" it listed the unit correctly as 3 points.

This may explain the discrepancy.
 
You also have to take into account the 15% that are issued as landowner vouchers.
 
The MM points are also different than several hunts listed in EJ. Was just noticing that at lunch.
 
I have found a couple of areas in NV and ID that appeared the odds on MM were wrong. After talking with JDC, the MM odds were right.

I'm not familiar with your specific questions, but my experience with the MM odds is that they are much better than any other website/magazine.

Grizzly
 
Here is another reason for a difference. The DOW page lists raw data applicants. However, some of those residents filled out their application wrong (yes, some people still fill them out by hand). These applicants are listed in the raw data, but the computer kicks them out and they are not actually entered in the drawing. So there are always a few more applicants that draw than the raw data would indicate.

So, as I understand it, your actual chance of drawing is always a few percentage points higher than the MM odds would indicate.

txhunter58

venor, ergo sum (I hunt, therefore I am)
 
I 2nd grizzly, I find the odds here better and more accurate then what I get in HF and EBJ - many times mags do not break out odds nearly as good as here. I use the odds here a lot. Usually it depressses me though :)
 

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