Hunt Draw Odds Question

[OpeningDay]

Pansaganut Management Hunt?? My Dad is trying to convince me that with 3 deer points, his best odds according to the "Hunt Draw Odds" on this site is the Management hunt on the Pansagaunt. I have tried to explain to him that out of the 67 permits or so, he only has a chance at 1/3 of those tags. 1/3 goes to youth, 1/3 to Seniors and 1/3 to the middle ground. So am I right when I tell my dad that his actual odds of pulling this tag are a lot worse than what the "Draw Odds" page shows?? Or am I mistaken?? Any info would be great..

 

[6x7]

LAST EDITED ON Feb-13-12 AT 01:01PM (MST)[p]If this is MM draw odds are correct it looks like you need 7 to get it if trends stay the same.

 

[huntinfanatic]

If your dad is old enough to qualify for the senior tags he has a good chance at drawing with 3 points.

 

[HuntinFool]

What do you guys think my odds of drawing the management tag as a youth with 2 points currently are?

 

[rperkins]

my sister draw her first year she put in, she a senior

 

[cannonball]

I hunted there last year in the 1/3 senior group and by the comments which came from one of the DWR Officers, I will be very surprised if the total number of permits on this hunt will be more than 50. but who knows.

 

[OpeningDay]

I think as a youth or senior applicant, you probably do not need a pile of points, but as a middle of the road guy, I think it will require more points.. My question is... Is there a way to split up the odds into the separate groups for a better idea of what it takes to draw for each group?? Is that data available somewhere??

 

[Foxskinner]

I'm not sure what the senior and youth tags are all about, maybe someone can explain where that information is explained. Anyway, I am looking at biggamedrawodds.com at the Management unit for the Paunsaugunt deer for residents. It shows that the 33 people with the most bonus points drew automatic tags. The other 34 tags were drawn randomly among the remaining 400 applicants. Overall draw odds were about 1 in 6 drew a tag. If you want to hunt the Paunsaugunt, then the management hunt would have the best draw odds out of all the hunts offered for that unit. I hope that helps.

 

[Foxskinner]

Okay, I found info on the senior and youth tags issued as per R657-5. Since they don't specify in the draw odds on which hunters were senior or youth, I guess you will just have to look at the overall draw odds and go with them. In the end, if you want to hunt the Paunsaugunt unit, the management hunt has the best draw odds when compared to archery, muzzleloader, and rifle seasons. I'm not sure how else to look at it since they don't break it up and tell you how many seniors are ahead of your dad.....