Utah Elk Draw -2004
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PleaseDear
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The 2004 proc. is on line now. www.wildlife.utah.gov it has the tag amounts for the new split on bow and on mzzldr for non-res. but nothing for res. draws. Personally, I think it will make the rifle tags alot harder to draw with less rifle tags available than in previous years, the mzzldr tags will be about the same odds but the bow tags will be alot easier to draw but have terrible success rates compared to the other 2 weapon choices.
The bow dates suck and the rifle dates are great for the rut and the mzzldr dates suck with all the General mzzldr deer hunters everywheres.....
But hey, ya got to apply to draw so go for your dream unit/weapon choice and Good luck!!
The bow dates suck and the rifle dates are great for the rut and the mzzldr dates suck with all the General mzzldr deer hunters everywheres.....
But hey, ya got to apply to draw so go for your dream unit/weapon choice and Good luck!!
A
ANTLERPINNACLE
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IN THE NEW PROC, THE ARCHERY HUNTS DO NOT HAVE ODDS NUMBERS SO IT WILL BE TOUGH TO TELL. THERE ARE A TON OF NEW ARCHERY ELK HUNTS AVAILABLE WICH SHOULD BE SWEET! I THINK THIS WILL HELP ALL OF OUR ODDS IN YEARS TO COME AS FOR 2004 I THINK IT WILL STILL BE TOUGH TO DRAW SINCE SOO MANY GUYS HAVE A TON OF POINTS.
PleaseDear
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Ant-Pin, ya think most of the higher point pool folks will stick with the rifle draw and the lower point pool will go for the bow/mzzldr tags??
It should wipe out alot of guys with points for sure so 2005 may have alot better odds?? Throw in the 5 year waiting period too?
Yeh, it still is a crapshoot........
It should wipe out alot of guys with points for sure so 2005 may have alot better odds?? Throw in the 5 year waiting period too?
Yeh, it still is a crapshoot........
Thats such horse #####. Once again they pull the same crap not telling the non resident hunters how many tags will be allowed. When there is only sometimes one tag you dont have a prayer at drawing unless your maxed out in points, and if you got 8 pts like i do you can waste a pick on a unit with only one or no tag! WTF!!
When are they gonna pull their heads out of their asses and either get thier data ready by drawing deadline or move the drawing back a few weeks. Man its frustrating. Now there is supposed to be more tags for archery but how do we know what to apply for? You residents at least have an idea by last years numbers to go on but imagine if some of the better units had only one tag some years, and none the next, thats what i go through. Just venting..
When are they gonna pull their heads out of their asses and either get thier data ready by drawing deadline or move the drawing back a few weeks. Man its frustrating. Now there is supposed to be more tags for archery but how do we know what to apply for? You residents at least have an idea by last years numbers to go on but imagine if some of the better units had only one tag some years, and none the next, thats what i go through. Just venting..
c3
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Schmalts:
Fear not my man! I've been at the Utah draw for 18 years and have yet to draw. I understand your frustration completely.
Here's the jist of how Utahs system works. It is state law that 10% of the permits go to NR's where there are at least 10 permits available in total.
This means at least 9 units will have at least one NR archery permit next year. They are listed on the page linked above.
There will be at least two units with two or more archery permits. There are three or four other units which could end up with more than one NR archery permits. These are the units where max point holders (11) will be battling for the second or third permit. All the others with 10 or fewer points are just in the lottery.
The key is which ones will have more than archery 10 permits based on the fact that 25% of the total permits will go to archery. The total number of rifle permits on a unit give you a good idea.
Schmalts, you are in no mans land. You have at least 10 - 15 years before your points will mean a thing. Keep applying and hope you win the lottery like the rest of us.
Cheers,
Pete
Fear not my man! I've been at the Utah draw for 18 years and have yet to draw. I understand your frustration completely.
Here's the jist of how Utahs system works. It is state law that 10% of the permits go to NR's where there are at least 10 permits available in total.
This means at least 9 units will have at least one NR archery permit next year. They are listed on the page linked above.
There will be at least two units with two or more archery permits. There are three or four other units which could end up with more than one NR archery permits. These are the units where max point holders (11) will be battling for the second or third permit. All the others with 10 or fewer points are just in the lottery.
The key is which ones will have more than archery 10 permits based on the fact that 25% of the total permits will go to archery. The total number of rifle permits on a unit give you a good idea.
Schmalts, you are in no mans land. You have at least 10 - 15 years before your points will mean a thing. Keep applying and hope you win the lottery like the rest of us.
Cheers,
Pete
Schmalts, Let me help you a little. Utah has its application period in Jan, but sets the Permit numbers in March - After they do their counts. Many states do this also. Jim Karpowitz, the Big Game director for the UDWR, said that all but 2 units should increase in tag numbers because these units are well above objective. Now 60% of the tags go to rifle hunters, 25% to archers, and 15% to Muzzleloaders. Look at last year's permit numbers and divide them by the % that corresponds to the Weapon Type you are after. Then you figure that 10% of those tags go to NonRes.
For example:
Book Cliffs, Bitter Creek South
58 res Tags in 2003
Rifle in 2004 = 34 NonRes = 3 or 4
Archery = 14 NonRes = 1
Muzzleloader = 9 NonRes = 1
Most numbers should increase also, as there is the perception of giving more opportunity to hunt LTD elk. It will be interesting how it all shakes out.
For example:
Book Cliffs, Bitter Creek South
58 res Tags in 2003
Rifle in 2004 = 34 NonRes = 3 or 4
Archery = 14 NonRes = 1
Muzzleloader = 9 NonRes = 1
Most numbers should increase also, as there is the perception of giving more opportunity to hunt LTD elk. It will be interesting how it all shakes out.
that helps a little but still confused. I guess my only worry is i need to apply where there will be at least 2 nonres tags. Because i only have 8 pts and have no chance of drawing the first tag, I want to get in the lottery for the second tag but need to know what units will have 2 tags before i apply. I may apply for some archery tags in the better units, like san Juan. Any suggestions?
Schmalts, If there is only 1 tag availible then it will be put in the lottery for all that apply for that unit. If there are 2 or more tags than half of the tags go to those with the highest Bonus Points, while the other half go to the lottery for all. AS long as it says there will be at-least one tag then you will have a chance.
I hope that made sense. Good Luck, I have been putting in for 15 years and I have never drawn anything, turkey, deer, elk, antelope and all Once-in-a-liftetime. Nothing. Oh well maybe someday.
I hope that made sense. Good Luck, I have been putting in for 15 years and I have never drawn anything, turkey, deer, elk, antelope and all Once-in-a-liftetime. Nothing. Oh well maybe someday.
Not to say your wrong, I probably am, but i though it was the opposite? Like if there was only 1 tag available it went to the highest bonus point applicants, if 2 tags available the second tag went to the lottery. reason i am asking is i have been applying for 7 years with a buddy and we decided to apply alone this year. Reason? because it was our thinking that if there were only 2 tags to be had, one had to go to the highest point holder and one to the lottery. Now this is the question, what if we put in as a group and there is only 2 tags to be had and we were picked first if the lottery actually does go first? Are we eliminated because one tag needs to go to the highest point holder?
I need to read those damn regs again but it gets confusing when you apply for 5 states.
I need to read those damn regs again but it gets confusing when you apply for 5 states.
c3
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Here's an example:
If there are three Archery Only Permits for a given unit:
- Two (2) permits will go to the general pool by random chance. Everyone applying has the same chance at these two permits.
- One (1) permit will go to the highest point holder. If more than one point holder it will go randomly between those with the highest points.
Odd numbers of permits for a unit alway end up with the odd permit going to the general pool applying for that unit not the bonus point holders. Thus units with one permit is the odd one and it goes randomly to everyone applying for that hunt.
Here's the website at the state that has the numbers for each unit. Look the elk tables over very closely and you'll start to see how it works exactly.
http://www.wildlife.utah.gov/pdf/03bbobp-2.pdf
Go down to page 51 in the Adobe reader. It is for San Juan Archery only permits.
Cheers,
Pete
If there are three Archery Only Permits for a given unit:
- Two (2) permits will go to the general pool by random chance. Everyone applying has the same chance at these two permits.
- One (1) permit will go to the highest point holder. If more than one point holder it will go randomly between those with the highest points.
Odd numbers of permits for a unit alway end up with the odd permit going to the general pool applying for that unit not the bonus point holders. Thus units with one permit is the odd one and it goes randomly to everyone applying for that hunt.
Here's the website at the state that has the numbers for each unit. Look the elk tables over very closely and you'll start to see how it works exactly.
http://www.wildlife.utah.gov/pdf/03bbobp-2.pdf
Go down to page 51 in the Adobe reader. It is for San Juan Archery only permits.
Cheers,
Pete
I was wondering if with the bonus pt system your name is put in the hat the number of bonus pts you have rather than having the same chance as people with fewer pts than you? For example: If a guy has 7 bonus pts his name is put in the hat 7 times while a guy with only 1 pt is only put in the hat once? If this is true, it would be used in the lottery draw?
O.K, just one more question. In the open lottery part of the tag drawing, do you get more or better chances to draw for every point you have? or are points only good for the tag that is given to the highest point holder? I was under the assumption that each point is like one more lottery ticket in the open draw.
LAST EDITED ON Dec-22-03 AT 08:38PM (MST)[p]
We must have been typing the same question at the same time dude!! look at the posting time? beat you to it!LOL
I see now, my question is answered about the points, they do give you better odds in the lottery. By looking at san juan i would say a NONres like me with 8 pts has a great shot at a tag this year for archery!! maybe its a plan!
We must have been typing the same question at the same time dude!! look at the posting time? beat you to it!LOL
I see now, my question is answered about the points, they do give you better odds in the lottery. By looking at san juan i would say a NONres like me with 8 pts has a great shot at a tag this year for archery!! maybe its a plan!
Basically your name gets put in once for every bonus pt. you have. It is not exactly that way, but the effect is the same. You get a random # for every point you have and keep your lowest #. More pts = more chances at lower #s. The way it works out a guy with 11 pts has a 10% better chance of drawing than a guy with only 10.
2_point, I feel your pain. I've been puting in for damn near everything (elk, deer, sheep, turkey, doe, cow, swan, bear) since I was 16. Now 16 years later, this is what I have drawn in my ENTIRE hunting career:
93 doe antelope (undersubscribed)
94 2-doe late season permit (cancelled before the hunt started)
00 doe permit (undersubscribed)
thats the whole list. I realize I haven't been puting in for the easiest tags, but 16 years..............gonna change my name to Hinckley......
2_point, I feel your pain. I've been puting in for damn near everything (elk, deer, sheep, turkey, doe, cow, swan, bear) since I was 16. Now 16 years later, this is what I have drawn in my ENTIRE hunting career:
93 doe antelope (undersubscribed)
94 2-doe late season permit (cancelled before the hunt started)
00 doe permit (undersubscribed)
thats the whole list. I realize I haven't been puting in for the easiest tags, but 16 years..............gonna change my name to Hinckley......
c3
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Your name only goes in once. There is a second pool for the highest point holder if a permit is available to them, but that is only for the highest point holders. Every one below the highest is just in once with every one else for half the permits.
Go look at the web page and you'll get it once you see who the tags went to for each unit.
Cheers,
Pete
Go look at the web page and you'll get it once you see who the tags went to for each unit.
Cheers,
Pete
c3
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LAST EDITED ON Dec-23-03 AT 08:04AM (MST)[p]The odds they print for each point catagory are irrelevant.
They don't mean a thing because it adds those that drew from the random half to those that drew permits from the bonus half. There really needs to be two separate sets of odds.
Just look at where the bonus point permits go vs where the random permits go.
The random half of the permits is pretty evenly split between each of the different point catagories. There were 22 people who drew last year with ZERO points. The the bonus point permits alway and only go the the people with the highest points applying for a given hunt.
Your points mean NOTHING unless you are one the highest applying for a given hunt. End of story.
Cheers,
Pete
They don't mean a thing because it adds those that drew from the random half to those that drew permits from the bonus half. There really needs to be two separate sets of odds.
Just look at where the bonus point permits go vs where the random permits go.
The random half of the permits is pretty evenly split between each of the different point catagories. There were 22 people who drew last year with ZERO points. The the bonus point permits alway and only go the the people with the highest points applying for a given hunt.
Your points mean NOTHING unless you are one the highest applying for a given hunt. End of story.
Cheers,
Pete
I may not be the shiny-est apple in the basket, but I have tried long and hard to learn how the system works. (You can see how much I have learned by success. -Not-)
For each point you have plus the current year, your name is put into a lotto for a number. For example, if you have 5 points then your name goes into the lotto 6 times (5 points + 1 for the current application). Then they keep the lowest number. Now once they have assigned a number to all applicants, they go down the list and the lowest number gets the tag first. So really you have multiple chances to get a low number, but so does most everyone else.
Pete is right on saying the published reports do not show the true odds. Unless you have Max Points, you need to take only the regular permits column number and divide the total applicants by that number. The success ratios listed next to each Point level are also bogus. It is not 1 in 127 or whatever because they are not trying to draw against only those with say 5 points, but they are drawing against everyone.
Confused yet?? I am not the best at explaining things through the written Word.
Merry Christmas
For each point you have plus the current year, your name is put into a lotto for a number. For example, if you have 5 points then your name goes into the lotto 6 times (5 points + 1 for the current application). Then they keep the lowest number. Now once they have assigned a number to all applicants, they go down the list and the lowest number gets the tag first. So really you have multiple chances to get a low number, but so does most everyone else.
Pete is right on saying the published reports do not show the true odds. Unless you have Max Points, you need to take only the regular permits column number and divide the total applicants by that number. The success ratios listed next to each Point level are also bogus. It is not 1 in 127 or whatever because they are not trying to draw against only those with say 5 points, but they are drawing against everyone.
Confused yet?? I am not the best at explaining things through the written Word.
Merry Christmas
Makes sense to me. In the random part of the draw, guys with more bonus pts still have a higher chance of drawing one of these tags than guys with few pts. For example, guy with 8 pts has a lot better chance of drawing the tag than the guy w/1 pt. Some guys are suggesting both guys have the same chance of drawing the random tag but this isn't true (if I'm understanding it correctly).
The odds given as examples are really bogus because you are applying against all the guys in the pool rather than the guys with the same number of bonus pts. I really don't understand why they even post those odds because they don't mean anything?
The reason there are quite a few tags issued each year to guys with 0 or few tags is because there are a lot more guys applying with few bonus pts compared to guys with higher or max bonus pts.
Obviously the guys with the highest bonus pts draw the tags in the bonus pt pool of tags and guys with less than the max pts don't have a chance.
The odds given as examples are really bogus because you are applying against all the guys in the pool rather than the guys with the same number of bonus pts. I really don't understand why they even post those odds because they don't mean anything?
The reason there are quite a few tags issued each year to guys with 0 or few tags is because there are a lot more guys applying with few bonus pts compared to guys with higher or max bonus pts.
Obviously the guys with the highest bonus pts draw the tags in the bonus pt pool of tags and guys with less than the max pts don't have a chance.
c3,
This is copied from the proc:
"You receive a random drawing number for each species you apply for and every bonus point you have for that species. Your lowest random number is then used in the drawing."
It is not a huge help, but having bonus points do help, even if you don't have max points.
This is copied from the proc:
"You receive a random drawing number for each species you apply for and every bonus point you have for that species. Your lowest random number is then used in the drawing."
It is not a huge help, but having bonus points do help, even if you don't have max points.
c3
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It appears that I'm mistaken.
Here are the odds totals for each point catagory for elk after you substract the applicants that drew based on points. These come from page 97 or so in link I listed above.
10 pts. - 1 in 57
9 pts. - 1 in 38
8 pts. - 1 in 42
7 pts. - 1 in 41
6 pts. - 1 in 40
5 pts. - 1 in 51
4 pts. - 1 in 66
3 pts. - 1 in 65
2 pts. - 1 in 57
1 pts. - 1 in 118
0 pts. - 1 in 228
Average - 1 in 65.7
I did the same calculations for the deer drawing in 2003 and it shows very similar numbers. I think the numbers are similar for 2002 as well.
Seems your points do make some differnce but not alot after you have 2 points. I never really did this before, but have roughly calculated it in my head on the upper point catagories. Anyone between 6 and 9 points the odds seem to be about the same or 1 in 40 which is the average for all permits including bonus point holders.
Thanks for the head up. Now I feel much better about it after my 18th year without drawing an elk permit. Even with my 9 point advantage. LOL!
Cheers,
Pete
Here are the odds totals for each point catagory for elk after you substract the applicants that drew based on points. These come from page 97 or so in link I listed above.
10 pts. - 1 in 57
9 pts. - 1 in 38
8 pts. - 1 in 42
7 pts. - 1 in 41
6 pts. - 1 in 40
5 pts. - 1 in 51
4 pts. - 1 in 66
3 pts. - 1 in 65
2 pts. - 1 in 57
1 pts. - 1 in 118
0 pts. - 1 in 228
Average - 1 in 65.7
I did the same calculations for the deer drawing in 2003 and it shows very similar numbers. I think the numbers are similar for 2002 as well.
Seems your points do make some differnce but not alot after you have 2 points. I never really did this before, but have roughly calculated it in my head on the upper point catagories. Anyone between 6 and 9 points the odds seem to be about the same or 1 in 40 which is the average for all permits including bonus point holders.
Thanks for the head up. Now I feel much better about it after my 18th year without drawing an elk permit. Even with my 9 point advantage. LOL!
Cheers,
Pete
K
ktc
Guest
You guys stress too much.
Put in and get your money back, earn a point. That is how it works. ;-)
Put in and get your money back, earn a point. That is how it works. ;-)
H
hedges
Guest
C3, I think you guess got the statistics all wrong. The averages are taken from the available number of tags. So basically if your not elligable then those tags aren't included in the averages. look at it this way, the averages are what the odds for you to draw a lottery tag with so many points that is probable found by taking how many people with X number of points that drawed for that tag and dividing it in to the available number of tags.
Smokepole
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Overall, I believe that the odds of drawing a rifle permit will be harder to get, because the Division will reduce the number of "any weapon" permits. However, the odds for those LE units that already had archery and muzzleloader permits will not change much, if at all. Just my opinion
Smokepole
Smokepole
C
cougz
Guest
I was one of the 22 people to draw that had zero points. It was a great hunt. Got a nice 6x6. I don't know what's so hard about drawing. (just kidding).
