Don't apply in Utah yet.....

[uhi]

until you check this out- I'm amazed at how cool this is:

http://www.utahhuntinfo.com/myodds.aspx

I was able to determine which hunts I can draw for this year!!!

Anyone else impressed?

 

[huntnfool]

That does you no good. If a unit had good odds last year kiss them good bye this year. My wife thinks I'm a little anal with the way I study the odds and have pages and pages of odds comparing every year for at least the last eight years. Let me give you an example.... One of my favorite units the dreaded Pahvant. Let take the muzzleloader from 2000 to 2005.
2000-38 applicants (this was the last year of the nov.hunt.)
2001-583 applicants.(first year of sept hunt)
2002-193 applicants.
2003-385 applicants.
2004-260 applicants.
2005-174 applicants.

You want to know a better shot at your odds for 2006 then go back 2 years not last year. People play the odds and move from unit to unit, year to year. It's a little bit funny watching these people create worse odds by trying to find better odds.
This example is one of the extreme ones but it makes my point. Right ktc?
Man maybe I need to draw my elk tag and move on and get a life!

Evan

 

[schmalts]

he is correct. odds shift from year to year. Last year Dutton was a hard draw, i bet this year it will be a shoe in compared to last year. Then figure in Garth carters picks as well. you just never know. Pick a unit and go for it.

 

[ktc]

Evan,

I think you are right? We need to draw and move on! Enough already!

You know what buddy? You and I will not draw until they cannot give the damn tags away! We should have some fun. Lets give your wife, as the banker, $100 each for each year from here on out. Last man standing in the point pool gets the cash!

I am glad we are in position to quit playing odds. The units flucuate so much and I think putting in for the tough odd hunt give you the best chance at drawing and a big bull. If I had 8 points I would not touch the late hunts. Everyone is licking their chops over this and I bet the early hunts have just as good as a chance to draw as the late ones this year. Just watch!

I am wagering we both hunt elk this year Evan.

 

[huntnfool]

ktc,

We are both going to knock a bull down this year I can feel it. If it be a 340 so be it. I'm moving on!
I haven't put in yet. I need to go get a sacrificial chicken and do my blood sacrifice then take the plunge! Diamond Mountain here I come!
Your on with the last man standing send me the $100 and I'll make sure my wife takes good care of it.hee hee
I'm like you the late hunt odds are going to be crazy this year. It will be interesting to see what they do with tag numbers on these hunts. If they got half a brain they will be cutting them. 50 % success I don't think so.

Maybe I need to get a couple chickens....

Later
Evan

 

[c3]

The odds that sight shows are completely wrong. It shows me as lock with 10 points for Pahvant Archery elk. That is completely wrong. There are 10 people with the same or higher points who didn't draw last year for the 5 permits in the bonus side. The best my odds could be is 1 in 2 there.

For San Juan Archery there were 186 applicants in 2005 that didn't draw from the bonus pool. Without any advantage for more points for the other 7 permits, my odds would be 1 in 26. That page shows 1 in 102.2

I wouldn't trust that thing to make my choice in any way shape or form.

Where is the actual method for determining the draw published? I've never seen that posted anywhere before.

Cheers,
Pete

 

[schmalts]

KTC, i will draw as well!!! this is my year!! 10 points going to bet burned on a lesser unit.

 

[uhi]

Pete,

The odds are based on the 2005 draw results- not what the results from 2006 will be.

In 2005 there were five residential applicants with 10 points. They each received a tag. The remaining 5 residential tags were split among all the other applicants. 12 people applied with 9 bonus points, so if those same people apply next year with 10 points each your odds would be 5 out of 12, or just about 42%.

Bonus permits are awarded based on the number of bonus points applicants have in descending order- whoever has the most points get the tags first. So if there are more than 6 people that have more points than you for the San Juan hunt then you have 0% chance of getting a bonus tag next year. However, the total number of tags available is split. Half the tags are awarded based on bonus points. The other half are put into a drawing that all applicants have a chance in. Each applicant is given a certain number of entries in that drawing based on the number of bonus points they have. So if you have 9 bonus points, you get 9 entries, plus one for the current years application, giving you 10 total entries in the drawing. So if you multiply out all the applicants that didn't get a bonus permit times the number of bonus points they have plus one, and add them all together, that gives you the total number of entries in the regular drawing. For the San Juan Archery last year the total number of entries was 1022 and you had 10 entries. 10/1022 = 102.2. Your odds were 1 in 102.2.

I wouldn't base my complete decision on the odds from previous years- but it does make for some interesting analysis. There might be some areas you could draw out for for sure. That site can help you recognize them.

 

[Antler1]

I doubt any of the 2005 odds will do any good to all to base choice from. If you look at the premium hunt odds they were terrible on most units. I'll bet bunch of people drop out of them and put in for the other hunts which will make the odds worse.

Also in 2005 there were two other hunts added so it will take a couple of years to see what the trend will be. I agree with what was stated above, you would better off looking at the 2004 odds.

I always look at the odds and stick with the unit I know best and that hasn't worked either. What ever you all do GOOD LUCK.

 

[c3]

There were only 192 applicants for San Juan archery elk last year. 6 drew out from the bonus point side then the remaining 186 people were 1 in 25.6 or so odds at the remaining 7 permits. Where did the number 1022 applicants for san juan come from?

You system doesn't assume that the number of points you have is with a much larger group usually than the year before. The odds it would show would be more correct if put in how many points I had last year. It's still not right but closer to real life.

Cheers,
PEte

 

[2_Point]

Pete,
You need to input your points going into the 2005 draw. Not the Points you have after the draw was completed and you received an extra point for not drawing. The odds given are correct and mirror the longhand odds I came up with before I found the site.

You NOW have 10 points, but last year you only had 9 going into the draw. Input 9 points and you will get the odds of drawing the tag LAST year.

As for the high number, 1022.... I would guess that those are the TRUE number of possible chances. A guy with 0 points has only one "ticket" in the barrel, but the guy with 9 points has 10 "tickets" in the barrle. After you add up everyone's "tickets" (points) I would guess it comes to around 1022 total chances. If you have 9 points, that means you would have a 1 in 102.2 chance of drawing one of the tags. If you only had 4 points you would have a 1 in 204.4 chance of drawing. If you had 0 points you would have a 1 in 1022 chance of drawing.

 

[c3]

Putting in last years points would replicate last years draw sort of speak. This year (assuming the same number of applicants with the same number of points) there would be only 11 with 10 points putting in again. My odds would be roughly 5/11ths or 1 in 5.5. This is a far far cry from what the stats show no matter what number I put in the calculator.

The number of 1022 is a misnomer. Also the math listed above is not possible statistically speaking. You could never have lower odds with 10 points than the number of remaing permits divided by the remaining applicants.

I'm still interested in a link or published reference to where it shows the actually algorithm for the draw calculation. That "9 points has 10 tickets" has always been speculation and never confirmed as far as I can see.

I did a study of the points not counting the bonus pool permits three years ago and it showed a slight increase in your odds if you had higher points. Nothing like 10 times that the above example would give with 10 points vs. zero. I'll try to find the post where I laid them out.

In fact last year it appears that your odds were higher if you had 0 - 4 points of drawing than if you had higher points

Cheers,
Pete

 

[c3]

Here where the odds by points for the non-bonus point side of the draw for all LE Elk Units combined in the 2003 draw.

10 pts. - 1 in 57
9 pts. - 1 in 38
8 pts. - 1 in 42
7 pts. - 1 in 41
6 pts. - 1 in 40
5 pts. - 1 in 51
4 pts. - 1 in 66
3 pts. - 1 in 65
2 pts. - 1 in 57
1 pts. - 1 in 118
0 pts. - 1 in 228
Average - 1 in 65.7

I just calculated the odds for zero and 9 points from 2005.
9 points - 1 in 40.4
0 points - 1 in 152.7

That looks consistant with what they were in 2003 given that there are quite a few more permits now.

Cheers,
Pete

 

[DonVathome]

I too have seen the odds jump around for NR tags, unreal, every other year they often double guys chasing the tags, I might try hoping on a unit when odds plummet and gt real bad, hoping others back off.

Evan, like you I go a little nuts following the odds, you should see me in NM now, all 3 choices count, so I am trying to determine odds there, very hard and very misleading

 

[opportunist]

Ok, so according to the website, I have a 10x better chance to draw a Mountain Goat tag (17:1)with 3 points than I do of drawing a Bookscliff muzzleloader deer tag (170:1) with 4 points? Something ain't right.

For one thing, the bonus point system doesn't work exactly as you described. When you say you get 9 entries with 9 bonus points, what really happens is that you are assigned 9 random numbers. Only the lowest number (the only one that really counts) you are assigned is put into the drawing. You don't get you name in the actual drawing 9 times.

If there are 100 people in the a drawing and they all have different BP amounts, there are are still only 100 names "in the hat". The advantage to the 9 bonus points over someone with 2 points is that you have 9 chances to draw a low number and the other guy has only two.

 

[ktc]

c3, scmalts, 2 point (BoonerBoy;-))

I wish you all luck.

 

[c3]

Thanks ktc, and good luck to you as well. This should be your year

I'm not holding my breath. I've still got a few years to go most likely.

Cheers,
Pete

 

[2_Point]

KTC- I sure hope you draw. Then you can be an "Opportunist" like the rest that have drawn. hahaha I don't have a snowball's chance....

Pete- Look at the proclamation, page 20. In the shaded section, Bonus Points, right hand column, second paragraph: "You receive one random number for each species you apply for and one for every bonus point you have for that species."

I am bored so here goes:
2005 draw info for San Juan - Archery
Bonus Points---Applicants----Total Chances
11---6---77
10---9---99
9---9----90
8---15---135
7---18---144
6---17---119
5---20---120
4---19---95
3---20---80
2---33---99
1---15---30
0---11---11

Total Applicants:192 Total Chances:1099
Delete 6 applicants with 11 points/77 chances
Total applicants remaining: 186 Total Chances:1022

If you had 9 points that would be 10 chances: 1022/10=102.2

Now if another guy with 10 chances drew the First permit then there would be 1012 chances remaining. Now you have a 1 in 101.2 chance for the next permit. Your odds increase slightly as each permit is drawn.

Anyway, the point of it is that unless you have enough points to draw a Bonus Tag, the odds are way too astronomical to consider them in a drawing area. The DWR odds are based off applicants, not including bonus points.

Good luck in the draw. I can't wait to see your bull.

 

[ktc]

Thanks guys.

2 Point,

No opportunist here. No way. When I spend my points it will be over. I hope 350-400 bulls roam the mountins for everyone else for years to come.

What will I do with myself without points? That is a scary thought! Hunt Book Cliffs deer? Never really thought about it!

If I draw I will have to just go away from MM!

 

[c3]

Ok, I finally sorted out where the odds are going wrong. There are 1022 chances in the pool for San Juan Archery, but there are 5 tags.

This makes the folks with 9 points have the odds of 1022/9/5 or 1 in 23 not 1 in 113 as the web site shows. Someone with 1 point would have 1 in 204 odds of drawing one of those tags.

The bottom line is that the cummulative odds have to add up to 1 or 100% of the permits. That 1 in 102.2 doesn't get you there.

Cheers,
Pete