NR and AZ max points tags

DonVathome

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Elk max point tags

I cut and pasted this from my thread on bowsite so if it jumps around and answers question not here that is why.

Please read through and do not just dismiss it, I am fairly confident this is going to occur and occur often in the near future. Bottom line good units are going to become preference point hunts for NR, because only NR with max points will draw. Not every time but often.

Others have pointed this out and it has got me thinking. NR & res are all in the draw together. Res draw more and thus, on average, have less points for elk. It would seem to me that NR are going to begin to start drawing the max points tags.

A good example is 7m, res draw odds are around 25%, so res will draw often. NR will not, if 20% of tags go to max point holders, most likely they will all be draw my NR. However NR can only get 10% of tags. This might mean NR without max points are going to have no tags to draw and thus 0 odds.

My question is 2 fold, first do you agree NR will begin to draw most max points tags, and second, if this occurs, NR without max points will have very very few tags to try for, thus making odds even worse?

This could be eliminated if the AZ F&G take the 20% off the top and have a seperate drawing for max points holders and NR are limited to only 10% of those tag.

For example unit 'X' has 100 tags (thus up to 10 can go to NR) 20 tags for to max pnt holders, only 2 of those can go to NR (10% of 20) thus leaving NR without max points to try for up to 8 tags (10 - 2 = 8).

Bottom line is NR will have the most points, so they will a lot of max pnts tags, and likely reach the NR 10% quota BEFORE the max pnts drawing is done, thus, each time this happens NR without max points have NO shot at a tag.

I know this is not going to happen every time but if you really think about it and analyiz odds it is going to happen A LOT.

Bottom line is half the apps are NR yet we only get 10% of the tags, simple math will tell you we are gaining points way faster ad thus dominating the top point tier and this drawing as many of those tags as possible, therby making odds at drawing without max pnts slim to none.

ALl you guys are doing is restating what I said and already know, no one is actually answering my question, or even thinking about it seriously, if you did you would realize if I am right NR are not going to be pulling good tags anymore until they have 10 or more points, and there is a good chance by the time they have 10 it will take 15.

This could become a huge waste of $$$$ each year for NR who are not aware of this and thinking they might actually get a tag.

When max pnts tags went to 20% this really kicked this effect into high gear.

Bottom line, after carefull study of the draw process I believe in good units NR without max pnts have no shot at a tag, this effect has NOT been seen yet since the 20% max pnts tag just went up from 10% (a huge difference in this scenario) and one year we got the blue light special at tags and drew a ton.

Again to put it plainly, NR have more points then res, this gap was narrowed by the blue light special but it is still the case and the NR with max pnts will obviously increase and beat the res in the future (1/2 the apps going to 1/10 the tags) so NR will be at the top of the point pool. SO obviously we will be pulling as many max pnts tags as we can, thus reaching our 10% cap before NR the max pnts pool drawing is done, thus giving all other NR apps ZERO chance at a tag.

I am not asking for sympathy at all, I am just curious if my theory is correct, because if it is a lot of guys who think there $100 is buying them a chance with very few points might not apply if they understood this.

I have never drawn a tag in AZ, applied 6 times but for tough hunts, only have 2 points so I have not expected to draw a tag. If I am right I am going to rethink my app strategy and many others should too.

Bottom line is 7m is looking a lot better since most guys avoid it.

I am willing to bet if I am right almost no one applying realizes it. I might be the first person to realize NR without max points have little to no chance at tags in better units.

I will continue to apply and build points (have too) I know AZ is worth it but I am always amazed at how few guys know just how bad NR odds got after CC apps. They still think they will draw every 5-7 years.

Again I am not complaining just pointing out a possible draw scenario that has a huge NR effect no one is aware of (if it is true).
 
Very interesting calculation. It appears to me that you are probably right. That is discouraging to someone like me, who is just getting to the point in life where he can start expanding his application options.

I get a kick out of those guys who claim that draw statistics don't matter because their buddy's, wife's, cousin drew a tag with only 2 points. Someboday has to win the Powerball jackpot once in a while too. If your cousin ends up being that lucky millionaire does it mean that you can count on winning the lottery yourself "in the next few years"?

If you have the money, apply. If your hunting budget is limited, know what you are getting into. Maybe there are better states to focus on.
 
I believe you're right in your thinking. I haven't seen the non res point pools for this year yet but there were two blue light years actually so we burned up lots of the non res pool in a hurry. I have max points for deer so this new 20% deal is a double edged sword for me. one thing is for sure, things are getting tough and expensive for the non res hunter.
 
As you mentioned NR with lots of points drew a ton of tags so this effect is limited in the immediate future BUT quickly NR will again have max points on average way more then NR.

1/2 the apps are NR but we get 1/10 the tags, obviously we will continue to exceed residents with points very quickly, once that happens my theory kicks in.

I am still applying and going for "bad" units to avoid my theory, it is worth it but most have no idea that this is going to happen.
 
the 2005 draw reserved 20% of the permits for the folks with the max bonus points. this all but cleared out the max point guys last year. seems like i was told there are only about a dozen guys who have max elk points now. i know one of em. they'll probably all get their first or second choice this year. but it still doesn't account for luck. i hope i get lucky on a sheep tag someday.
 
max points is not max points since the draw started it is max pnts for each hunt you can apply for. Every hunt will give 20% of its tags to guys with max pnts wether that max pnts is 12 or 8.
 
LAST EDITED ON Feb-11-06 AT 09:01PM (MST)[p]Also, the chance of drawing a "trophy" hunt dropped 25% for the non-resident thanks to that slice of the 10% going to auction tags in Utah...

That's just another good example of the current trend. The demand for non-resident "trophy," "quality" tags is growing while the supply of such NR draw tags is SHRINKING. (note: the supply of landowner tags and auction tags for those with big $$$ is increasing)

So, that can only mean 1 thing. Prices and wait-times for most non-residents will continue to go up & up until supply exceeds demand.

A good chance at Big Antlers is only going to get more expensive--either longer waits, or more expensive or both and that trend is unlikely to change. Outdoor shows etc. are almost all about trophy animal hunts....doesn't look like that'll change for quite some time if ever.

The good news is that there is still good opportunity to hunt if you don't personally get too caught up in the mania of having to shoot something with large antlers.

We're all residents and want our resources "protected" by limiting supply to non-residents yet we aren't as willing to pay those same prices or long waits for tags out-of-state.

If USO had won and the Reid bill not gone thru, things might be a little different--but, the majority and politicians want "protectionism" and not "free trade" when it comes to wildlife tags. The people have "voted" for having those willing to spend large sums of money on NR tags to subsidize resident public tag hunts. Guys on tight budgets just won't be able to afford the out-of-state tophy hunts like they used to....tough to get the wife to support a couple grand on licenses for points when a kid or two needs new clothes, bicycle, school supplies, etc.

But, for those with money, things couldn't be better. There are far more opportunities available for trophy hunts than there used to be. It boils down to how the supply of tags is allocated given the demand for tags.
 
POINTS SUCK. All points systems suck. The reason is that the game can change yearly, yet points are a long term deal. You do not know what you are buying. Oh well, this particular change benifits me (I am in the top deer pool, and only two off the top sheep pool). If it causes hate and discontent towards points systems, and helps me, it is all good! At least the premium pricing was axed.
 
FYI AZ F&G employees have been giving out the wrong info to people. First, every unit gives 20% of tags to max pnt holders, if the person with the most pnts has 12 or 8 it does not matter, max pnts go by unit not over the entire state.

There has been lots of discussion on bowsite about my theory and it is coming out that it very likely is correct and NR will soon only be drawing good tags if they have max pnts.

For some good info see the bosite posts.
 
LAST EDITED ON Feb-13-06 AT 10:02AM (MST)[p]Don while your theory may be correct if everything remains constant the variables in the equation prove otherwise. Two of the top officials at AZG&F have said otherwise. AZG&F computer test models utilizing the draw data over the last 5-10 years to see what impact the change to 20% would have on the draw indicate otherwise as well. They ran the tests to see how it would impact the draw results before letting it go to the commission for approval to avoid discrimination issues and issues surrounding the fact that only nonresidents with the maximum points would be able to draw a tag. This information was also verified Saturday 2/11/06 at the commission meeting in Yuma AZ.

Don is correct in that more tags will be issued to max point holders RES and NONRES and that in some draws depending on application pool only max NR point holders may draw in the nonresident pool in some units in some draws with low tag numbers. Is it a certainty? NO.... Could it happen? YES...But apparently not enough to concern the commission and the attorney general's office that we may have an issue with discrimination going forward given the random selection process of our drawing.

Statistics say Don's right but computer says it's right, Who knows...
 
The only way to know because you get difference answers from AZ personnel depending on who you talk to is to get the draw results tables with the info broken down by point pools per unit....like OR, CA, NV and CO do.

It's all smoke unless we see those data tables...problem is, AZ doesn't publish them or give the public access to them. So, what's going on there? ...publish the draw tables so we can see.
 
They do issue a booklet that has data in it for around $15.00 but it may not have what you want. I doubt they will go to the effort to publish anything else since it costs money and there really isn't much public demand for it.
 
In a state like Utah that gives 50% of tags to the max. points would this mean NR's (10% of a units tags) have no chance at drawing without max. points??

Neal
 
Again here is a simplified version of my theory.

NR make up half the apps but get 10% of tags. Basically that means that NR, as a whole, draw 10 times less then res. Clearly NR will accumulate points quicker and begin to have more points then res.

If you doubt this look at CO, they give 40% of tags to NR (way more) unit 76 archery takes 3 points for res and 6 points for NR. Huge difference.

Now that we have established that NR will have, on average, more points all the NR have to do is draw half the max pnts tags, considering, NR will have more points most times, drawing hlaf the tags is easy. Once the NR draw half the max pnts tags they have reached thier 10% quota and no tags remain for guys with under max pnt.

When AZ ran the model in their computer they did not take NR out and examine them seperatly, I know this because if they did they would have found what I explain, and also why would they when NR and res are all in the draw together (unlike most other states). So of course their computer model is not going to show what is going to happen to just the NR.

This will not happen every time but it is going to happen a lot especially in the premium units. Check out the post on bowsite, several guys did a lot of research into this theory and it is begining to get validated. Including a conversation with a top draw official.

There are a lot of variable but giving 20% of the tags to max pnt holders eliminated a lot of them, simply put all NR have to do is draw 1/2 the max pnt tags and I am right, when the max pnt pool was 10% NR had to draw ALL the max pnt tags for this to happen, very unlikely, but doubling this % of tags made a huge difference.
 
I know you are right for the higher demand tags. Like I said, points systems are not fair, and not consistent. Deal with it if you want to draw tags. At least this one benifits the ones who have paid the most in. I am waiting for some system I have invested thousands of dollars in just completely get yanked from beneath me. I know it is going to happen eventually.
 
LAST EDITED ON Feb-14-06 AT 07:59AM (MST)[p]Boskee, thanks. I found out from HEAT on bowsite that it doesn't have the stats for each huntin a table with the # of applicants who apply, draw from each point pool.

The hunt recap from CO or OR is a good example of what I'm talking about. Without publishing that, any of this talk is just that talk....smoke, conjecture, whatever...but, it's not the truth and we won't know it until we see something official posted on it...either the draw algorithm, the draw formula or the results.

***Is there a link which explains exactly how the draw is conducted?***


If not, that's not exactly good either....AZ could be doing whatever they wanted..giving NR tags for auctions/outfitters that we aren't told about.

I really don't give a rip if AZ allocates some of the 10% NR allocation to auction tags or outfitters like some states do (OR and UT) but they should at least state it. I want to know what I'm buying for $100+ dollars....not mislead.
 
Wouldn't it set everything right if they made 10% of the tags non res only like many states do? then it would be two different drawings. probably wont happen with all the anti non res hunter bashing that's going on now .
 
LAST EDITED ON Feb-14-06 AT 08:55AM (MST)[p]WMIDBROOK, we do have a few auction tags issued outside the drawing with legislative approval and such but other than that all tags shown in the regs must come from the drawing as applicable with the exception of otc. There are no preferences for guide tags in AZ. A guide must wait until his client draws the tag and in some cases it can take years. Hope this helps.

Don you may be correct, but law requires that all permits be drawn from the same pot or pool. I have no idea how they ran the tests, hense the UP TO 10% wording on the allocations for nonresidents. It's that random thing so there is no way to predict how they will be drawn FYI. Why don't you call them and discuss your findings with them and see what they say. But the fact some units will have this issue in no way will probably change their minds IMO. If you ask for a reduction in the 20% pool, 10% NR max pool you may actually wind up with fewer permits and may be taking some guys out of hunts that have paid their dues. If they don't issue in that pool then they are part of the main draw and your odds there may or may not be worse.
 
Neal

The Utah NR draw is totally separate from resident draw, whereas AZ throws everybody in the same pool, subject to a 10% limit for NR.

JR
 
I still can't figure out how 20% of the max. point pool tags will take 100% of the tags offered via the 10% rule for non-res. tag allocation.

Thats why it is 20% max. point pool and remeaining 80% all others.

Az. doesn't do a unit by unit by bonus point drawn tag breakdown, with applicant pool by point amount. Like Utah does or even Colorado with Preference points. So I don't even see how any numbers could be compiled to even establish a formula for this Speculative Theroy.

It makes for good cabin fever depression though!
 
Don - First, you aren't the first to realize this COULD be the case, many others are number crunching nerds as well and you have to ask the right questions to find out true odds. If the statistics were available for bonus point distribution we wouldn't be discussing this, I know.

However for the time being, you do make assumptions based on the bonus point distribution, which is the key. Until recently, NR applicants didn't receive bonus points unless the license was purchased, so for many there is still a low number of NR bonus point holders, especially max point holders. Many NR hunters applied as you mention, but in the past only paid the application fee and did not acquire BP's. Also, when the max NR bonus point holders did finally draw the tag, it was frequent enough to have remaining NR tags to those who could draw in the regular lottery, hence the brothers, friends, uncle scenario and 5-7 year statment by the AZG&F.

Once the mandatory NR purchase of a license was instituted, I believe your system will now start to take into more effect once the NR population builds up this high number of BP's and overwhelmingly outweighs the resident BP distribution. For now, you forget there are still a large number of us residents who fall into the max point categories and could possibly draw all of these tags, and leave all 10% NR tags to those without any BP's! Especially when we are talking about say 50 trophy tags, only 10 max point tags, all of which could easily go to residents and your whole theory is thrown out the door! The remaining 40 tags will enter the general lottery, open to anyone and all 5 NR tags can go to people without any BP's. You need to consider the max point reservation was instituted for these high demand hunts with a low # of tags and high # of hunters, so there is only a low # of NR tags are avaiable anyway. With this said it is very likely the resident can take a large proportion of these high demand max point tags, in every high demand hunt across the state! Your system fails to consider these low sampling numbers, where the number of resident bonus point holders can easily fill all 20% of the max BP draw tags as long as there is a sufficient representation in this category.

The case we will need to consider in the future is if the max BP threshold becomes too high and there aren't enough residents to fill the other 50% of the 20% of max bonus point tags (or even a high enough percentage of this population to statisitcally draw the tags). Then all of the NR tags are certain to be filled in this drawing (or close to it as the numbers show) and no left over tags are available for other NR in the open drawing. I think this is the case you are trying to implicate without considering the resident bonus point distribution.

IMO - Conclusion, until the number of NR max bonus point holders significantly out weighs the resident max bonus point holders, there is no statistical concern. This could be the scenario in the future, but for now my explanation is probably why the AZG&F models are showing this is not a problem. I don't believe they are trying to misrepresent odds, as you implicate.

I personally have good friend has 14 resident BP's and still can't get a trophy tag, this tells you something if the max point resident holders still can't draw. I can't even draw archery bull in a good unit with 7 BP's but I know a NR who drew rifle bull with no points in a great unit! I know this is the typical scenario you presented, but I don't even feel as though I have a chance at a good tag unless I have at least 5-7 BP's as a resident. Good luck with only 2!
 
Very good points jasn, I agree, I know it will take time and I mentioned that somewhere, I think I said a few years, it might very well be a lot more. Also the free for all for 2 years when no NR caps were in place dropped a lot of NR down when they drew, so again I agree it will take a few years before my theory comes into play, and a lot more years before it becomes a reall effect seen often. By then everything could change.

I have my first point from the year before they required you to get a point to apply, so thank goodness I am ahead of a lot of guys. Also this $100 fee might shy a few NR away, time will tell.

Good luck to all!
 
This is from Marvin (aka stickflinger) from the AZ portion of bowsite, seems some units have already gone to my theory:

Now DonV,

In the most popular hunts in 2005, non-residents could not draw a tag unless they drew it in the max point round. You are correct, some of them are already converted to a preference point system, so to speak. Keep in mind there were no caps on NRs in 2005, so not sure how putting the cap back will help or hurt that situation in the next year, but I would think it would only be worse. I'll have to give it some thought.

In one of the most popular archery bull hunts in 2005 (I only had time to ask for and receive the info on one unit), 40% of the applicants were NR. 80% of the permits issued in the bonus point round went to NR. Therefore, unless I'm mistaken, I don't believe there would be a possibility of drawing a permit in that hunt with a 20% pass percentage, and a 10% NR cap. All the early rifle hunts are probably worse than that, so they probably all are effectively on a preference point system now as well as many of the top archery bull hunts. Hope that helps, although not great news for NRs.

Marvin
 
Sounds like a lot of generalities and conflicting information, I'm not sure of this information:

"In the most popular hunts in 2005, non-residents could not draw a tag unless they drew it in the max point round."
To me it sounds like most popular hunts, plural, conflicts with:
(I only had time to ask for and receive the info on one unit)! No sampling data here, just one data point!

And the statement "NR could not draw a tag" from above also conflicts with "80% of the permits issued in the bonus point round went to NR" "Keep in mind there were no caps on NRs in 2005".

Correct me if I'm wrong but wasn't the max BP sytem discussed above only for 10% of tags, meaning these facts implicate only 8% of the total tags in the alleged highest demand archery bull unit went to NR. This proves the first statement "NR could not draw a tag" is obvioulsy incorrect with any of the old systems in place. Granted this is a high percentage and under the new 20% max BP system with 10% NR limit, this one projection would indicate all NR tags will be filled by max BP holder only.

However, with these same statistics, you're only saying a MAXIMUM of 12 NR hunters drew the tag in whichever archery bull unit the data is for (let's assume unit 1, 150 tags since this is likely the unit discussed and has the highest # of tags). This # of tags (12) is much to low to forecast large generalities for the whole state's high demand bull hunts, archery and rifle, which is what I'm getting from the statement you copied. Because of the consideration of my previous post considering resident BP and the max BP distribution, I'm curious if your friend can also give the total # of NR vs. Resident applicants in the max BP category for this one unit. For all we know there were 1000 residents and 12 NR having the max BP, and all 12 NR drew the tag and only 3 residents!

Sounds like these generalities are being stretched a bit far, that's all I'm saying. I understand if you are concerned about your odds, and from my point of view one less NR in the drawing only helps me, so I have nothing to gain here. I bet I can find a high demand unit where 80% or more of the max BP tags went to residents, and wouldn't doubt that 100% has occurred in recent years, why? Because of the low # of tags and high # of applicants. Percentages are exactly that, but not forecasts, and are less predictable with a lower # sampling data points, or # of tags in this case.
 
Good post jasn. It can and does happen but IF some residents were in the max point pool and there numbers were drawn it would be possible to have tags in the general draw. So Don while it can happen just the random nature of the draw can change it. Now if there were no resident's in the max point pool at that level the example above would be correct.
 
For my theory to be right NR need to draw only half (50%) of the max pnt tags (20% go to max points, in NR draw half that is 10% - which is the max tags NR can have thus none are left over for the random draw).

Above info stated that NR drew 80% of the max pnts tags, if this is true it very well did exceed the 50% needed to support my theory, and it leaves room for the randomness of teh draw - quite a bit of room, even if the % drops in half to 40% my theory is very nearly accurate most times.

Bottom line if NR max pnt apps do not drop to half the previous amount then my theory will again be true. The randomness of the draw is not as random as many think, there are thousands of apps for these hunts, not 10 or 20, this smoothes out a lot of then randomness. Also the fact that 80% of the tags were NR max pnt holders when only 50% need to be also helps iron out the "hicups" and changes most time.

Again this is not going to happen every time but it is going to happen a lot and also happen more and more in the future.
 
jason I just reread your post, good points, I do not know if the cap was 10% or 20% then, if it was 10% then there were definetly tags going into the NR random draw.

Very good points, I do not know anymore about the info I provided, so I am making a possibly inaccurate "broad" forcast.
 
""""NR make up half the apps but get 10% of tags. ":""""


OK this is way WRONG,, NR do not make up half the apps..

in some units they barely makeup 10% of apps and in the premiums
probably not more than 20%

Cry all you want I know plenty of RESIDENTS that dont get drawn more than once every ten years.

in my opinion NR tags should be 2 % and tags should cost $20,000
the price set by the apaches.
 
Actullay in premium units they tend to make up 40% - 605 of the apps according to one guy who spent a lot of time checking. Call the F&G and let me know what they say. I did not check myself but I know from many other guys who have NR make up at least 40% of apps in premium units.

Yikes 2% of the tags? I take it you do not hunt in any other states?

I feel like I should apologize for my parents rasing me in Ohio where there are no elk and beg to come to your state and save for my whole life for that one hunt on federal land.

Yikes.


You are welcome here in Ohio anytime, great deer hunting and OTC tags, no license purchase just to enter a drawing!
 
I think 10-15% for NR is reasonable. Any lower and it makes it nearly impossible to draw.
I appreciate the NR opportunities I've had in other States.

I looked up the NR tag allotments for 2004 as they probably represent a the typical history of AZ NR applications. I think 2005 would be higher as everyone knew the NR cap was not going to be applied to the draw.

For the early RIFLE hunts the worst units (for NR pressure) are as follows: unit 1 less than 10%NR; unit 3A+C 4/22 18% NR;
unit 4A 3/13 30% NR; unit 8 16/61 26% NR; unit 22N 4/31 12.9% NR; unit 27 9/32 28% NR ; unit 21 less than 10%; unit 23N less than 10%.

For the early Muzzleloader hunts 4B 14.3% NR; 5BS 15....6% NR; 23S 30.7% NR; 6A November hunt 19.4% NR;

Archery bull hunts: Unit 1 20.6 % NR; units 3A/C; 3B; 4A; 5A;5BN; 5BS; 6AN; 6AS; 6AW; 7W have an average NR apps of 16.4 % (range 10.7% -23.4%).

The highest units for NR pressure were unit8 37/127 for 29%; unit 9 42/123 for 34.1%; unit 10 42/177 for 23.7%; and unit 27 30/120 for 25%.

I think these numbers will stay about the same with the new rules but the NR staying in the game will all be building points as they are now required to buy the license to apply.

neb
 
I would just give up tring to get a NR tag in Az?I am a native and can't draw a Strip,early rifle bull or sheep tag---why ?Nr tags will always be given first priority,because they mean big bucks and thats all G%F is after anyway-other wise they would not kill off a 1000 does on Kaibab every year when we are not at half of the carring capasity of kaibab?
 
You talk about the max point pool what is the max for this pool archery elk, as a NR I can't complain we have drawn bull tags 3 times 2000 0 points 2001 0 points 2005 3 points we do not apply in 1,8,9,10, because they are high demand units. your odds of a big bull are probably better in those units but all units have good bulls in them, we have not hunted the same unit twice our 2 best bulls to date was a 301&355 I am 51 and realize last year could have been my last elk hunt in AZ I hope not I have meet some very nice res. while hunting their.When you are drawn make the very best of it. Might be your last Az.elk hunt.
 

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